Normally El Nino produces a large spike in temperature in the lower troposphere, like in 1998 and 2010. But this year’s record El Nino failed to do that, indicating that some other effect is suppressing temperatures. The El Nino is collapsing, and in a few months temperatures are likely to plummet. Then they will have to take credit for saving the planet at COP 21 – and move back to the global cooling scam.
“We cooled the planet too much!”
Children just aren’t going to know what El Nino is. Panic and raise taxes.
but this was the super colossal humdinger el nino
I am not familiar with this El Nino, when did it begin?
Bob Tisdale is a go to for information on ENSO
2015-16 El Nino Series
And yes Bob agrees: December 2015 ENSO Update – Shouldn’t Be Long Now Until the El Niño Starts to Decay
Also see El Nino-La Nina Processes for an explanation and diagrams of how this ocean/wind phenomenon works.
……………….
The wind is a major climate forcing that is completely overlooked BTW. (Solar – Climate link may be?)
………….
fhhaynie, a retired EPA scientist says
The Cromwell Current is also called Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent or the Equatorial Undercurrent and is eastward-flowing and down 300 feet (100 m) under the surface of the Pacific Ocean at the Equator. (Shown on Bob Tisdales’ cartoons of ENSO)
The Humboldt current is the tongue from the wind driven Antarctic Circumpolar current that runs up the east coast of South America from Drake Passage and gives El Nino it’s name.
Research on Drakes Passage today:
A warmer climate means more evaporation and therefore more rain. Also if Stephen Wilde is correct, a warmer world has zonal jets. A change to a cooler world is going to change the position of the jets and therefore change the rain fall patterns.
Here are the Papers that support that conclusion:
They actually did field research in this study on atmospheric circulation shifts.
(I am sure the author of this following piece would faint dead away if he saw the use I was putting his words to.)
The links between solar wavelength variability, ozone formation and destruction, winds and climate are slowly being made. I have tons of studies that address bits and pieces.
No problem. They can modify the GISS data at leisure.
and
http://notrickszone.com/2015/12/21/the-super-collapsing-el-nino-ncep-cfsv2-n-hemisphere-temps-plummet-1c-in-a-single-week/#sthash.D98qg0Pd.dpbs
If this is all the current El Nino has, I really will have to invest in a popcorn machine for next year as the La Nina and sleepy sun start to bite !
Better off investing in some warm clothing, a decent gen-set & plenty of fuel.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=61055
Notice that there has never been a negative temperature. 🙂
Yes, a jumper, maybe even a jacket in winter, sometimes. 🙂
We just bought our second generator.
I can see the headlines now: “Global Warming/Climate change causes strong El Nino to have minimal effect on global temperatures”.
“Warming causes cooling, which sets the stage for future warming”
They can “adjust” the data all they want but can’t change the reality that is more than likely going to play out in the next few years. The AMO going negative and the lowest solar activity since 1928 combined with what will probably be a deep La Nina could very well mean that we that live in the temperate and Polar zones are in for some harder colder times.
Given all of those who are predicting major cooling going forward for the next few decades at least, it should get really really interesting as they try to spin CAGW into ‘Global Cooling’.
Luckily there are enough people who have taken screenshots of the CAGW propaganda.
Already the David Viner “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is…” news article has disappeared down the memory hole.
There is a SS piece already spinning Viner’s comment like mad.
EXCERPT FROM GOOGLE (I will not give SS any traffic.)
“…snow cover has shown a long-term decreasing trend….” ????
Not any longer. As of June 2015:
https://i1.wp.com/realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/ScreenHunter_2301-Jun.-07-09.15.gif
The propagandist are already trying to rewrite the 1970s Global Cooling scare so we can expect M.Winston Smith to get busy erasing the CAGW scare.
I went looking for Nigel Calder’s comments on the 1970s Global Cooling scare. (He covered it as a science reporter.) And I found this instead:
Tradecraft of propaganda
His Dad wrote propaganda for the UK government.
Calder hosted a BBC Mini series on the ‘ coming ice age’ about the same time that nature published the news.
Nigel Calder Milankovitch and the ice ages – welcome back to 1974 On Luboš Motl and the 2006 paper by Gerard Roe
Prophet of the Next Ice Age
For those who were not aware Nigel Calder died peacefully at home on 25 June 2014 at the age. We lost another great man of science that day.
I’ve gotta be driftin’ along
You can use archive.org to avoid hitting the SS blog
https://web.archive.org/web/20100309182608/http://www.skepticalscience.com/Does-record-snowfall-disprove-global-warming.html
Has all the revisions at times as well.
Thanks
Rah, in addition we should consider why the el Nino this year has had a smaller affect on global T.
Although perhaps exaggerated, SST were at or near record highs. So as mentioned by you, and others, the N. Atlantic is cooling, but so is the Pacific.
So this El Nino appears to be countered by some general cooling, which as mentioned, in conjunction with a quiet Sun and a likely La Nina, will leave global cooling (CAGC) as the climate yoyo’s next refuge.
Sorry Tony, but Obama says CAGW is undeniable.
During a news conference at the COP21 climate conference in Paris on Tuesday, President Obama had some words for the Republicans hoping to win his job: “Everyone else is taking climate change really seriously.” In other countries, he said, “They think it’s a really big problem. It spans political parties.”
But in the United States, everything about climate change is politically divisive. There appears to be little common ground on what causes it, what to do about it — or even, in the case of some Republicans, whether the problem exists at all. While the president noted that “99.5 percent of scientists and experts [and] 99 percent of world leaders” agree human-caused climate change needs to be reckoned with, some Republican leaders have called it a “hoax” and a “contrived, phony mess.”
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-climate-change-became-so-politicized/
You see, another 2.5% of scientists and experts have now joined the irrefutable 97% of scientists and experts who agree that they agree on believing in CAGW, and that anyone who disagrees with them are definitely not scientists and experts, except for maybe .5% of scientists and experts who agree that they agree on believing in CAGW and that anyone who disagrees with them are definitely not scientists and experts, who will likely change their minds and start believing they agree with the other 97% who originally agreed they believed in CAGW and that anyone who disagrees with them are definitely not scientists and experts plus the 2.5% of new converts who now say they believe they agree with the original 97% of those scientists and experts who agreed to beleive in CAGW and that anyone who disagrees with them are definitely not scientists and experts, bringing the total to 100% of scientists and experts who agree on CAGW and say that anyone who disagrees is most definitely not a scientist or expert who agrees with their 100% consensus on CAGW, before the next big CAGW consensus meeting agreement.
http://meshaw.aimsites.org/files/2015/08/spinning-head-emoticon-2.jpg
Regretfully, the SCM (Standard Climate Model) is as valid as
1. The SNM (Standard Nuclear Model)
2. The SSM (Standard Solar Model)
3. The BBC (Big Bang Cosmology) Model
Alphabetical research agencies – DOE, EPA, NASA, NOAA, NSF, etc. – were designed and started after WWII to generate 97% worldwide consensus “scientific evidence” in favor of any propaganda Stalin wanted to promote in order to maintain control of the world after nations were united on 24 OCT 1945.
That is why George Orwell moved from London to the Scittish Isle of Jura in 1946 to start writing his futuristic novel, “Nineteen Eighty-Four“
Oliver-
I’ve been kicking around the beginnings of an unusual theory about a steady state universe for a long time, and I’m curious as to your thoughts. If you’re interested, can you recommend a more appropriate forum where we could discuss it?
indicating that some other effect is suppressing temperatures.
All of that because since 1995 the sun is getting hotter i.e. brighter [less spots] i.e less solar polar magnetic field strength i.e more of the most energetic particles released, i.e. more ozone, more N-oxides, more peroxides formed TOA, i.e. more UV, A + B, deflected off from earth,
i.e. less UV reaching the 70% water – where most UV is eventual transformed into heat –
the oceans are the main source of energy of earth….
the oceans are the main source of energy of earth…
should perhaps read,
the oceans are the main stores of energy of earth….
I think of the oceans as capacitors with El Niños as the discharge phase.
As you say HenryP,
Given the oceans cover 70% of the surface of the earth.
Given the sun’s energy heats the oceans to a depth of 100 meters.
And given [t]he specific heat of water is 1 calorie/gram °C = 4.186 joule/gram °C which is higher than any other common substance.
The whole idea of the earth’s energy being in ‘balance’ and CO2 as the climate control knob is laughable. Especially when we have ZERO decent data about the amount of heat stored in the oceans over time.
Dr Nir Shaviv takes a stab at it. In The oceans as a calorimeter
And that is before you add in the other effects of water, the latent heat of vaporization, clouds, ice and albedo. It is really amazing that anyone with a science background actually fell for the propaganda.
From your extensive, excellent comments, you likely have this already, but if not, here is a link to Shaviv’s p-r paper ‘Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative effect’ : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007JA012989/epdf
In the paper he says “We find that the total radiative forcing associated with solar cycles variations is about 5 to 7 times larger than those just associated with the TSI variations, thus implying the necessary existence of an amplification mechanisn, although without pointing to which one.”
Merry Christmas to all
Thanks RealOldOne2
Dr Shaviv has the link to his paper at the bottom of his layman’s explanation.
The fact that Dr Shaviv goes out of his way to explain his research to layman and even answer questions makes him a REAL scientist in MHO.
He is a great example of how scientists love to talk of their work. (Who wouldn’t?) It is in major contrast to the ClimAstrologist’s attitude of “”Why should I give you my data when all you want to do is find errors in it”.” — Phil Jones e-mail to Warwick Hughes in 1992. (Does Jones even KNOW what the scientific method is?— OH WAIT — he can’t even use Excel, — never mind.)
We see this over and over with the refusal to obey FOIA requests by Phil Jones, Mikey Mann (Who won’t even answer Discovery requirements in a court of law) Univ of Virginia, Penn State and now NOAA.
This is the obstruction found in fraudsters and not the behavior of scientists. If you find something different, the first thing you do is ask some one to verify what you thought you saw.
As Isaac Asimov said, “The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not “Eureka!” (I found it!) but “That’s funny …”
I should add that I am a typical blabber mouth scientist. Driving curiosity combined with a desire to share the information.
N Shaviv ‘s paper was interesting!
He says
“This implies that an amplification mechanism necessarily exists. Interestingly, the size is consistent with what would be expected from the observed low altitude cloud cover variations. ”
We agree on that. However, due to this graph,
https://i2.wp.com/oi61.tinypic.com/ju7fw9.jpg
where a sinusoid for O3 concentration seems more probable,
it appears more likely to me that the ozone/peroxide/N-O connection is the first tier amplification, which seems to cause somewhat more cooling at the higher latitudes and allowing less UV into the oceans…
Then, the 2nd amplification, is simply this:
As the temperature differential between the poles and equator grows larger due to the cooling from the top, very likely something will also change on earth. Predictably, there would be a small (?) shift of cloud formation and precipitation, more towards the equator, on average. At the equator insolation is 684 W/m2 whereas on average it is 342 W/m2. So, if there are more clouds in and around the equator, this will amplify the cooling effect due to less direct natural insolation of earth (clouds deflect a lot of radiation). Furthermore, in a cooling world there is more likely less moisture in the air, but even assuming equal amounts of water vapour available in the air, a lesser amount of clouds and precipitation will be available for spreading to higher latitudes. So, a natural consequence of global cooling is that at the higher latitudes it will become cooler and/or drier.
A final amplification effect is the increase in cloud cover, simply initiated by the increased O3, N-O and peroxide compounds, formed TOA, by said variation in the Sun’s radiation.
So, just pure physics and chemistry is enough to explain what happens, more or less. You don’t have to bring in a “cosmic ray” theory at all, to make “things” fit.
There are those of us who really think we are headed into much colder times and there is nothing that humans can do to stop it. If we are correct, I wonder how long it will take the climate “scientists” to acknowledge that CO2 does nothing.
It will depend entirely on the visual effects of the cooling. If it is not widespread they will be able to continue their scam
They will jump on Mann’s latest bandwagon; blaming mankind for the cooling.
I really think Mann recognized the ocean cycles 35 years ago when he saw everything lined up for natural warming. Now he is trying to get ahead of the natural curve again.
They most certainly will try to jump on the man caused cooling bandwagon but the internet is forever and the simple unavoidable fact is that they predicted general warming and sea level rise rate increase and when neither of these things happen and in fact the opposite of what they predicted happens, there is no running away from their “settled science”. All the Kings horses and all the Kings me will not be able to put the AGW Humpty Dumpty back together again until a new gullible generation comes on the scene as long as the likes of Tony Heller are on the case.
the green industry has now grown so big, and so much [of our] pension funds is invested in it, that not even you and me may really want to shake the world too much.
In any case, the global cooling won’t be that much…
we already had a drop of about -0.1K or -0.2K,
There will probably be another -0.3 or -0.4K in total, until the 87 year cycle sinus wave is completed.
https://i0.wp.com/oi62.tinypic.com/33kd6k2.jpg
My wife still laughs at me if I tell her of these figures, when the rooms within our house easily differ by more than 1K at any time of the day…..
Given the 1974 CIA Report and the Elite’s contempt for the Great Unwashed, why ever would you think the Elite aren’t aware that the earth is headed either
1. Into the ‘Climate madhouse’ experienced near glacial inception as seen in the bumping along between the two insolation peaks of MIS11
2. or full glaciation.
We know they lie. We know they are only interested in protecting their own.
What does all the recent events do? Starting in the 1970s, it strips Canada, the USA, the EU and Australia of their assets (factory, technology as well as $$$) and move them towards the equator while implementing a world government.
Obama also seems to be doing his best at stirring the pot to create another set of major wars. Always good for culling the herd. I would hazard a guess that muslims and blacks and the innercity poor are to be the target of the backlash. Riots in cities as the lights go out. Major backlash against muslims as violence in the EU and the USA escalates.
It is a Silly Wild A.. Guess, but it fits.
Don’t forget that Hilary Clinton’s heroine is Fabian Eugenist Margaret Sanger.
Secretary Clinton “In Awe” of Racist Eugenicist Margaret Sanger
another link on Sanger
The Fabian link,
http://old.worldviewweekend.com/worldview-times/article.php?articleid=939
has been yanked including nothing on the wayback machine. The last link has a comment by me with excerpts.
……………….
There is also the Ted Turner quote.
“A total population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal.” – Ted Turner, founder of CNN and the UN Foundation
Turner is pushing the Pleistocene rewilding of the USA.
A guy in Siberia is trying to breed back to the Pleistocene Siberian ponies. He is Sergey Zimov.
This is his web page: http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/
and the info on the horses:
http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/photo/68/
This is his scientific background:
http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/background/
He supposedly believes in CAGW. Yet his park is also where a mammoth may be recreated:
Wooly mammoth blood recovered from frozen carcass, Russian scientists say
Siberian scientists announce they now have a ‘high chance’ to clone the woolly mammoth
USA not to be left behind:
Scientists Successfully Insert Woolly Mammoth DNA Into Elephant Genome
(wwwDOT)
Why are they trying to recreate ICE AGE ANIMALS if they believe in Global Warming???? Does anyone else see that as just plain weird?
Given the 1974 CIA Report and the Elite’s contempt for the Great Unwashed, why ever would you think the Elite aren’t aware that the earth is headed either
1. Into the ‘Climate madhouse’ experienced near glacial inception as seen in the bumping along between the two insolation peaks of MIS11
2. or full glaciation.
We know they lie. We know they are only interested in protecting their own.
What does all the recent events do? Starting in the 1970s, it strips Canada, the USA, the EU and Australia of their assets (factory, technology as well as $$$) and move them towards the equator while implementing a world government.
Obama also seems to be doing his best at stirring the pot to create another set of major wars, Always good for culling the herd. I would hazard a guess that muslims and blacks and the innercity poor are to be the target of the backlash. Riots in cities as the lights go out. Major backlash against muslims as violence in the EU and the USA escalates.
It is a Silly Wild A.. Guess, but it fits.
Don’t forget that Hilary Clinton’s heroine is Fabian Eugenist Margaret Sanger.
Secretary Clinton “In Awe” of Racist Eugenicist Margaret Sanger
another link on Sanger
The Fabian link,
http://old.worldviewweekend.com/worldview-times/article.php?articleid=939
has been yanked including nothing on the wayback machine. The last link has a comment by me with excerpts.
“We know they lie. We know they are only interested in protecting their own.”
Yes, Gail they do lie. It is the nature of the state as a criminal gang writ large to lie to the people.
Their main interest is to protect their power and to expand their power. The whole CAGW scam is just part of that, as it the whole “invade the whole world” thing. Mencken told us generations ago that the state will parade endless imaginary hobgoblins before us to get the population clamoring for protection. The state is one large organized crime protection racket.
The whole CAGW thing will someday end (when it no longer serves a need) but the state will still be mankind’s biggest enemy. Education the public on that fact is difficult indeed. It make educating the common man on “global warming” seem easy by comparison.
Oh, and by the way — I thank you for all the posts here. I wish I had time to respond more, but life gets in my way. I read all your stuff though.
~ Mark
Thanks Mark and Merry Christmas and a very happy New year.
There is also the Ted Turner quote.
“A total population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal.” – Ted Turner, founder of CNN and the UN Foundation
Turner is pushing the Pleistocene rewilding of the USA.
A guy in Siberia is trying to breed back to the wild Siberian ponies. He is Sergey Zimov.
This is his web page: http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/
and the info on the horses:
http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/photo/68/
This is his scientific background:
http://www.pleistocenepark.ru/en/background/
He supposedly believes in CAGW. Yet his park is also where a mammoth may be recreated:
Wooly mammoth blood recovered from frozen carcass, Russian scientists say
Siberian scientists announce they now have a ‘high chance’ to clone the woolly mammoth
USA not to be left behind:
Scientists Successfully Insert Woolly Mammoth DNA Into Elephant Genome
(wwwDOT)
Why are they trying to recreate ICE AGE ANIMALS if they believe in Global Warming???? Does anyone else see that as just plain weird?
I think we need to wait two to three months before we writing off this El Niño’s effect on tropospheric temps. There’s a lag, after all, which you can clearly see in the two previous major events.
RealOldOne is right,
I also forgot to say this:
Merry Christmas to you all!!!
Merry Christmas and a wonderful new year to you and yours.
Gator, my favorite
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wq73h6XZQGA
Great song that has many arrangements, some of my favorites…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5diP34UPYY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqDsSC5w5KU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Az139PTaksk
Of course with my Celtic roots, I am partial to this sound…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHEczf28lvI
But this may be my favorite Christmas song, outside of Handel’s Messiah…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8uxCiJXFVs
Thanks Gail, same to you, I appreciate your posts as I know you are one of only a few that are far ahead in climate science.
Just to come back to my comment here:
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/12/24/trouble-ahead-for-climate-alarmists/comment-page-1/#comment-561290
to prove that the 2nd amplifier mechanism exists, you can look at all the papers that have reported a link between the 87 years weather cycle (Gleissberg) and the flooding of the Nile. You will find there is more rain during the cooling period of the cycle {which we have already entered)
The first paper I read on that was from William Arnold (1985).
Gail-
I’ve been looking for that version for years. I heard in, I think, a Macy’s commercial, and haven’t been able to find it since. Thank you.
Gator-
Celtic Woman is always appreciated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3pLHDFUQ8I
Merry Christmas Henry, I enjoy your insights. All the best in the new year.
“Do not be afraid. I bring you good news that will cause great joy for all the people.”
And now for a little Christmas music…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJM7VIdAzm0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMIKbX2DgKs
Thanks, Gator. I appreciate your words and the music.
Recorded music is one of the great gifts of the modern age that is little appreciated.
We have a couple player pianos and ~ a thousand rolls. It was part of bringing music into the homes of those with little musical talent or training over a century ago. You could say automatic musical instruments were the first computers.
http://www.amica.org/Live/Instruments/Player_Pianos/Player_Piano_History.htm
In would amend your statement slightly. Recordings of live performances are one of the great gifts of the modern age that is little appreciated. As somone who spent years on stage performing, I have reached a point where I only listen to studio recordings if there is no other alterrnative. One of my favorite music professors once told me that the only real music is live music, and I have to agree.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_7AvrTnMpY
Gator, Hubby says thanks. I grabbed his computer to play your vids. O Holy Night is one of my favorites too.
We both like Celtic Music and could hear it live in Boston.
I really wish I had gotten DVDs of the Jazz Harp trio when I could have. Gave them for Christmas gifts but forgot to get some for me darn it!
OH MY! A new group is up on Utube!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxN1SJSfsBE
However Deborah Henson-Conant was the Harpist we heard in Boston. The Jazz Harp trio, formed in 1983, was her first band. http://harpgigs.com/DeborahHenson-Conant/index.htm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vXtywOlayc
It is so nice to see a great musician go on to success.
Oh, I agree Gator, nothing beats a live performance.
We were lucky enough to be one of the vendors at the Pleasure Island Seafood Blues & Jazz Festival for several years. Pure heaven for three days. We considered it our vacation. (The sea food was great too.)
Nice! I have seen Deborah perform before, and she is unique.
If you like Celtic, this may interest you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNGwkAsE1gw
My cousin went to Juilliard (Violin, Clarinet, Piano and Organ were his instruments in High School)
Maybe if he could dance like that he could have been a performing artist. Instead he delivers pizza. (He has a lot of talent but ZERO personality.)
I feel dirty putting these in the same thread. They’re definitely NOT high quality music, but they’re funny. It’s South Park, so you know what you’re getting in to, if you play them.
At the risk of being struck by lightning…
***********************SERIOUS LANGUAGE WARNING**********************************
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YTJMSiaG10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33Fhv0u0nRk
If we are going to get into funny, we can not leave out these.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmPSUMBrJoI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u03QcymdCtg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzV9DIL_vrM
Do trolls get paid holidays now?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yc00HVmkaXY