Maybe if they track closer to the pole, there will be less ice!
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Think they are trying to sneak through the strait close to shore, based on the hope that south winds will push the ice offshore a little.
Seems a gutsy move, threading their way between shore and ice, especially as weather can be tricky up there. Still, their captain is experienced in these waters and he knows the odds.
My guess is that if they get stuck they wait for the Yamal or similar icebreaker to free them and restructure the trip specs to be mostly unassisted.
If you look at the current update as of 1800 EDT, they got around the cape, hit ice, and are directly backtracking since about 6 hours. They failed to get thru. Now the question is, will they get trapped?
The Yamal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal_(icebreaker)) is less than 50 miles from them and waiting for a convoy to assemble for their return leg through the ice.
There are other icebreakers working the NSR also, including the Vaygach
They will make it though, not because of lack of ice, but because of huge icebreakers. It will still be a gutsy move though.
They are zig-zagging, likely tacking. They’ve turned back northeast, then back northwest, and now are heading northeast again. I suppose they also could be avoiding ice. They are not avoiding the huge icebreaker Yamal, which is around thirty miles dead ahead of them.
It is amazing what a man can do, when he runs out of vodka. I wonder if the Yamal has any?
There are excellent satellite-viewing conditions on the far side of the Pole at Point Barrow. The sea-ice got off to a fast start over there, with big polynyas and lots of open water in April, but since then the melt seems surprisingly slow.
https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2016/08/08/arctic-sea-ice-point-barrows-ice/
The map also shows they have avoided a small off-shore island.
The wind direction aft of the beam looks OK for sailing but I should think they’re motoring, gilling about and putting themselves in the best spot for when the conditions miraculously (like the parting of the Red Sea!) become ” just perfect” for getting through.
Two pic that make it very obvious what the plan is.
First where the Yamal is
Now they tracking.
Look at the coast line.
Yamal should be pretty much in their sight now.
By my reckoning that puts them about where the orange dot is.
note AIS has them positioned much further back along their track.
On AIS if you go to the toolbar on the left of the screen. click on filters and then click to switch off cargo vessels then the Northbout will appear on the screen with a violet marker described as a “pleasure craft”
Did that,
It showed Naughtyboat still in “zaliv Tollya”
That is south of where their own tracker says they are.
Any bets they won’t even mention this ?
I don’t think it would be wise to follow and icebreaker through.
What speed does an icebreaker break ice at and what’s their top speed under diesel power?
The NW passage will be passable this year so they have made a completely wrong choice using recent history unfortunately. They may get lucky though, still some time
Andy
“What speed does an icebreaker break ice at and what’s their top speed under diesel power? ”
The Yamal was doing about 15 kts on her last leg through the Yaptev. It’s true it’ll be pretty dicey following this (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f5/Yamal_2009.JPG/1024px-Yamal_2009.JPG) in a small boat. But David H-A will attempt it I’m sure.
It’ll help that very soon there will be two Nuclear ice-breakers to churn up a path. The Vaygach is en-route.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Vaygach_Dolgaya.jpg
Lucky? I don’t think so.
You can bet your ass/donkey/burro that they now exactly where the Yamal and the other big ships are, and the other icebreaker.
If not, that PROVES their total incompetence.
It annoys me when the supporters of this escapade are keeping their fingers crossed for less ice when the whole purpose of this mission and the eco lefts is bemoaning the lack of ice and how its effecting polar bears and the future of mankind.
Come on Eco Lefts what do you actually want , more sea ice or less sea ice. It seems with the sentiments on the Polar Ocean Challenge website and media like the BBC you actually want less ice. I mean when Andy says
“they may get lucky” he obviously wants less ice. Now that’s established that the eco left want less ice ; why are they complaining day and night about this issue as its what they wanted.
Hey Lawrenec13! “Come on Eco Lefts what do you actually want , more sea ice or less sea ice. ”
My personal belief is that the alarmists want less ice, but will never admit it. As far as my experience can tell, most alarmists are not happy people. Totally aside from whether or not the climate is going to Hades, most of them seem to have major personal issues to deal with. Believing that the planet is burning up lets them blame their unhappiness on something outside of their control, and not on their own choices and actions (or lack of action). “Sure, I am unhappy! But it is not my fault! There is nothing I can do about it. The Bad People are destroying the Earth…”
CAGW is the warm, fuzzy blanket that lets them justify their feelings.
You don’t want to be anywhere close to the rear of a powerful shop. I was sailing with a captain who unwisely cut in behind a big barge that passed us on the intercoastal waterway, and our 30-foot sailboat was spun around like a potato chip, keel and all.
I can still remember the expression on the face of the captain of the barge, up on the bridge of his boat. His eyes got very round and he cut the engine of the barge to barely-idling.
They will have to stay well back of the larger ships, and the ice will have time to close in on them, especially if the ships go faster than 7 knots and they fall behind.
Actually they might do better if they hugged the coast, trusting that a slot of open water will appear in the south winds.
Give the guys credit for making a run for it.
But again caleb what is their mission to prove the arctic is now open for business due to AGW or the make a run for it and get lucky. What does that prove and how does it square with their mission. All that to one side and the spin and hypocrisy surrounding this topic I do applaud their having a go and pitting themselves against the ice however not under the heading that AGW has caused the ice to all but disappear.
There’s a possibility that they might get towed through the (non existent?) ice. That could work, as long as the towing vessel keeps her speed down, they get the towrope length right and, most importantly, the yacht’s helmsman steers a really steady course!
There are several large ships, and two icebreakers.
That is going to cut a pretty big channel in the sea ice. !
I wasn’t sure just how quickly the ice might close in again behind them; largish chunks of broken ice being not much of a problem for big ships but maybe more troublesome to crash through for a fairly small aluminium hulled yacht!?
They are right on top of each other.
Yep, that is my conclusion.
Look to Yamal doing a very slow pass through the sea ice…
… much slower than previous, because they have a paid-up scammer to protect.
How to get through unpassable sea ice…
Follow TWO icebreakers and some very big transport ships.
Someone must be throwing one HEAP of a load of funds at this…
Soros.. where are you?
Yes that’s the only conclusion I can draw, as the Russian s will be doing this as a business and earning money
Does anyone think that looking at their tacking, that they’ve actually started to engage the ice.
Posted on Polar Ocean blog.
Let’s see how long it lasts ;-)
There’s no escape from those eyes in the sky. I wonder if anyone will send up a drone to take videos of their progress?
Yes I can see it now Marc Morano’s new AGW scam movie
“Drone Alone Two” The story of contrived deception, they can start with the Yamal as an ice -breaker.
The only trouble is, Mr Hunt would have forewarned them of the names on this/Tony’s blog, so they will know you straight away as in terms of them being unguarded about their plans, but its great though you’ve let them know a whole team of folk are keenly observing their every move in an attempt to keep them honest
My, we do live in interesting times.
AndyG, ghostlike, appears and disappears at will, without a trace …
How is he doing it?
Truly ghostlike, not even the trace of no trace posted above …
That is why I posted the screen capture here.
I knew it would disappear.
its all part of the CON.
It would not be a surprise to find out they knew the Yamal schedule a couple of weeks ago, and were just laying up waiting for their turn for the escort.
The Northabout has currently past the Yamal, which appears to be waiting for other ships.
My guess is that the NB will find its way to just around the cape, and wait there for the convoy.
on AIS, I think I saw a cargo ship or two doing the same thing .
Totally OT and rather funny.
Australia is meant to have a census, by computer, this evening.
The computers at the ABS crashed about an hour and a half ago.
Same people running this farce have been pushing for computer run elections. ;-)
One of the worst things to happen here in the US is the adoption of computerized voting. Computerized voting is like doing a coin toss where the only person allowed to look at the coin is one of the people with an interest in the outcome. Seriously, the US system seems to be designed for fraud. Rigged elections is not a bug, it is a feature built in on purpose.
How to run a fair election? Inked fingers for each voter. Pen on paper ballots, which then go into a clear box sitting where anyone can watch it. Public counting done at tables next to the ballot box, with video cameras displaying, broadcasting and recording the count, again, open for anyone to observe. Aggregation of totals done on a website with open display of all data and site source code. Conceptually simple and transparent.
Hacking Democracy – Full Documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7W7rHxTsH0
No wonder we ended up with Obozo!
OH MY!
In the just can’t make this stuff up catagory…
Florida DNC Invites Orlando Terrorist Father to Hillary Clinton Rally – Seddique Mateen Accepts and Attends…
and the guy sits right behind Hillary for great photo ops. Not surprising since he was invited to the State department….
He is then interviewed holding a sign saying
Hilary Clinton:
* Makes the biggest investment since WWII.
* Good for National Security
* Ex-CIA Chief Morell “Hillary told the truth about Benghazi”.
* ??Gun?? Control Laws
“Hillary Clinton is good for United States versus Donald Trump, who has no solutions,” he said.
( It is well documented that Seddique Mateen supports the Taliban and Sharia Law.)
http://www.wptv.com/news/state/orlando-shooters-father-attends-hillary-clinton-rally-in-kissimmee
Just whose nations security is she supposedly good for? Told the truth!?!? about Benghazi ??? Which time???
Makes biggest investment ??? Like losing track of $6 billion in state department funds? Like intending to take from US taxpayers and give to every middle east state except Israel while lining her own pockets amply??
Good for (destroying) the United States, I would say!
More on Seddique Mateen
Breitbart Document Reveals Omar Mateen’s Father Tied to Radical Islamist Groups
Orlando GAY CLUB JIHAD mass murderer’s father is TALIBAN SUPPORTER, had POLITICAL ISLAM TV show, ran for AFGHAN PRESIDENT – See more at: http://pamelageller.com/2016/06/orlando-gay-club-jihad-mass-murderers-father-is-taliban-supporter-had-political-islam-tv-show-ran-for-afghan-president.html/#sthash.MS1acboc.dpuf
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637968/Father-America-s-deadly-mass-shooter-wanted-Afghan-president-job-TV-showed-support-Taliban.html
WOW! What a great supporter for Hillary to parade around. Fits right in with the Khan-con.
I do not think the invite was a mistake.
Jun 20th, 2016 PHOTOS EMERGE of Orlando Killer’s Father with Top US Lawmakers in DC
If you watch this video, at the end you can see where she walks off stage when she finished her speech and goes around the back directly to where Mateen is sitting and puts her hand out to shake hands…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgRGYe8bOso#t=1615
So it is a lie to claim that he wasn’t invited and nobody knew he was there. If her going to shake his hand afterwards doesn’t prove that was a lie, then I don’t know what will.
I do believe that she could take a machine gun and shoot a bunch of her supporters in front of others, and the only supporters she would loose, would be those she killed. Some who survived would go around proudly saying that they were indirectly touched by her.
Now that looks a tall order to get through that
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_DK_20160808.png
Well, the tanker that was stuck for the longest time, has finally actually started to move south and now is on a collision course with the SOF folk. (just kidding about the collision)
Also, I suspect some software bug in the AIS web page, because I experimented and determined that I could in the filter select practically anything to filter out, to help make the ‘pleasure craft’ become visible in those cases where it otherwise would not be. There are also some other bugs …
Neal have you signed up for free or the better pay version?
No, I have not. Somewhat reluctant to do so … even if it is free.
I just refreshed and looks like the tanker almost did collide with our SOF folk. Its getting crowded around there.
Almost like real-time …
New Russian Ice Charts are now up.
http://www.nsra.ru/ru/icecharts/
http://www.nsra.ru/ru/chart_ice_laptev_sea/
They have so far been going through relatively ice free water. But there is something different up ahead ….
LOL.. my prediction from above is holding quite well. :-)
So the NA at 19:00 hrs GMT 9-8-2016 is here in the thick of it
Sorry I’d like to try again
wrong bloody image .
You may recall this just before their arrival at Slurp and Sausage Bay:
Today’s Nikolai’s birthday. Will Dennis concede or will he argue nobody won? Hempie may hear a fast-paced monolingual exchange today:
Chuckle …
https://www.google.com/#q=google.translate
Just cut and paste … pretty amazing what google translate can do ..
Hands up anyone who can find one single mention of icebreakers, transport ships or cargo ship conveys on their blog.
…. they really are trying to SCAM the whole trip !!!
SPRUNG !!!
for those not aware what the boats are..
According to their website at approx.@21:00hrs they have turn west. Andy I couldn’t get that bloody ship tracker to show the ‘pleasure’ craft. I’ve signed up for the free version and using it in google-maybe they are in on some conspiracy nah that would be ridiculous.
One more bloody time
I tried too. Two times. Ket telling me the boat was out of range. Couldn’t get the Yamal either.
But it appears that the SOF have changed course again …
Don’t exactly know what it means though.
Maybe they found they couldn’t keep up.?
We will see what happens next. :-)
Not a mention on their blog.
Do you think they are trying to fool people. :-)
To be honest if they are genuine or its just to damn impossible to keep up with the Yamal then may they are afraid of getting closed in if the wind is due to change.
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?over=pressure_arrows&symbols=cities.forecast.dots&type=wind
Looking at the weather wind map there is a southerly due with a stormy low on Thursday which will push any ice into the sw part of the strait whilst clearing the northern coast east of the strait. That’s how I read it.
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?over=pressure_arrows&symbols=cities.forecast.dots&type=wind
I don’t think that following in the wake of an icebreaker is a good idea anyway.
I assume this is one of the ones with the screws that chew up the ice behind it, but even then a ship as small as theirs (even reinforced) could have a problem pushing their way through the remnants after the ice breaker.
I believe the ice breakers are designed to open up paths for larger ships that can just muscle aside the broken up ice. It’s hard to believe they’d be able to make much headway in the wake of an icebreaker.
I do know one thing. I wouldn’t want to be the one with a boat hook up front nudging ice out of the way.
They have definitely given up that idea.
Best hope for them is that something opens up along the shore.
Chocked at the moment though.
They need the area circled to open up.
I wonder if they can re-supply their vodka from one of the cargo ships :-)
Curiouser and curiouser … At first I thought they might be going back to hug the coast and proceed that way … but they continued west instead of going south ???
Still no ships log or crew blog update.
Heading for shelter in the small bay ?
Wait and hope?
I’m guessing that they tried to follow the Yamal but something has gone wrong. The AIS has significant lag and shows their Eastern-most position ( 4 hours ago) which compares well with the Polar Ocean Challenge tracker
Maybe they are going back for more Vodka and Wine???? Nah.
I hope for their safety they hold up in the bay. Well done them for having a go.
The two ice breakers are passing right by.
They have been turned back by the ice. Perhaps seeking shelter, perhaps just getting back out. Depends on next few hours and winds.
I think the pink marker is the Northabout. Per their tracker, they are currently doing a Northaboutface.
Their own tracking has been turned off for a while. I guess they are recharging batteries.
Interesting post on WUWT re Arctic sea ice.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/08/09/interesting-and-positive-changes-in-arctic-sea-ice-volume/
I clipped some of the page, this graph particularly is interesting. I’ve left the explanation on the clip.
I just saw this tweet about being hemmed in by the ice and it made me think about all the C02 being released by using the NA engine to search for a gap in the ice in a bid to show that anthropogenic C02 is reducing the ice, is all rather odd.
The ironic thing is that they’ve “polluted” more CO2 with their small diesel engine than the huge icebreakers have. Nuclear works.
It was maybe a little overoptimistic of them to think that they would be able to do much actual sailing in an area with such flukey weather and maybe they should have replaced some of the vodka stores with an extra can or two of diesel! While I have every respect for the genuine and professional sailors on board, I believe that (judging by the continuing references to seasickness) that more than one or two of the crew are little more than passengers at times and I hope that they don’t become liabilities if they ever get into serious difficulties.
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Here’s hoping Admiral Hunt recovered sufficiently and will emerge from his safe space to provide strategic guidance to Commodore Hempie.
They are taking another stab at it after they retreated west from 77.713636, 105.220441, aiming farther south this time.
(the time in the chart is MDT – Mountain Daylight Time)
This is taken around 1:15 MDT.
This was their 1:15 MDT position.
Wed Aug 10th, 2016 1:15:00 am
Speed: 11.13 km/h Heading: ESE
Elevation: 14.52 m Batt: Normal
Lat: 77.657621 Lon: 105.314061
Captain Nikolai’s looking for a way through the ice. *)
Wed Aug 10th, 2016 1:45:00 am MDT
Speed: 9.07 km/h Heading: N
Elevation: 8.43 m Batt: Normal
Lat: 77.674766 Lon: 105.412551
————————————–
*) Admiral Hunt calculated it would be gone.
Hempie knows that Rohtang La is the best ice seeing place in Himachal Pradesh.
What is the best ice seeing place in the Laptev Sea?
Hempie knows whom to ask and find it for him.
Everyone can go and touch it.
As before, Hempie reports what he sees. He lets others to spin it.
Wed Aug 10th, 2016 2:45:00 am MDT
Speed: 10.10 km/h Heading: ESE
Elevation: 10.46 m Batt: Normal
Lat: 77.701363 Lon: 105.731800
Would Radio 4 Programme spin a treacherous passage opened in wind-driven ice in 1°C water on August 10th as a proof of global warming catastrophe?
I’d bet a bottle of Mamont vodka they would.
Bollocks! They told us, vodka is an antifreeze.
Are people allowed to poke endangered polar ice like that? That’s not responsible.
I can’t ethically bet a bottle of vodka on the spin for BBC anymore. I looked it up.
Sailing the Mediterranean …
I really doubt the Mediterranean has all that ice in the background — unless you were talking about when the Mediterranean got clobbered with snow, even in North Africa.
The BBC audio clip is quite interesting. A shrewd way for Hempleman-Adams to stay clear of unsupportable bullshit.
He talks a little about the Russian Arctic, WWII, says it is normal to be ice-free around Murmansk this time of year. Then he lets Ben, the 14-year-old kid explain how unexpectedly warm it is, like the Mediterranean, and that they can only do it because the ice has retreated. Then H-A mentions he’s seeing fewer birds than in the Southern Ocean, and has a little human interest segment about difficult cooking in a small galley.
It sounds nearly like he knows CAGW is bull so he will ride it while he can but in a way nobody can hang specific statements around his neck. He doesn’t say anything dumb that he would regret after the scam blows up. He’s doing it much smarter than the idiot Chris Turkey if that is any measure.
All gone quiet here, no update thread from Tony either. Well the NA is making progress through the ice without seemingly too much deviation. Are they home and dry yet, well for the NE leg that is.
Blimey , I’m not very good at this, am I?
10 knots through the ice? Is that right?
Oops, kilometers sorry.
The SOF are far from making it through what will prove to be the hardest part of the NE passage they are attempting.
They’ve had to do a very sharp left SSW turn about 2:30pm GMT
Hempie’s mountaineering expertise is finally paying off. They are riding up and down over ice! :)
Wed Aug 10th, 2016 8:17:00 am MDT
Speed: 9.66 km/h Heading: SSW
Elevation: -2.00 m Batt: Normal
Lat: 77.492880 Lon: 107.717621
Wed Aug 10th, 2016 8:47:00 am MDT
Speed: 8.05 km/h Heading: SSW
Elevation: 4.00 m Batt: Normal
Lat: 77.459128 Lon: 107.798731
I noticed that to and wondered how the hell the elevation levels changed
Lawrenec13, it is a scientific fact that one glass of good Scotch is a legitimate substitution for one hour of sleep and I was doing fine into early morning hours but my wife doesn’t recognize it and asked me to go to bed.
I didn’t want to argue about science with her.
Same with my ex-wife. I’d give up go to bed and once asleep she was straight downstairs finishing the bottle of. She drove me to drink and I never thanked her for it.
try