Arctic Alarmists Headed For Rough Times

Alarmists have been spreading fake news that Arctic sea ice extent is at a “record low.” Obviously this couldn’t happen in February near the peak ice extent. It would have to happen in September. Current extent is about the same as all recent years.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

So how is summer shaping up? This is the really bad news for alarmists. The same southerly winds in the Barents Sea which have slowed growth of the ice edge this winter, are causing thick ice to pile up in the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas. Those seas are what determine the summer minimum.

DMI Modelled ice thickness

As I showed yesterday, government agencies start their graphs right at peak ice in 1979 – in order to create the fake impression of a linear decline

Projecting the climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect

The decline of sea ice after 1979 was driven by winter winds which pushed most of the old, thick ice out into the North Atlantic. It was not caused by in situ Arctic melting.

But those winds have reversed, and winter winds are now retaining the old, thick ice – pushing it away from the North Atlantic.

The same southerly winds which have kept sea ice extent down in the Barents Sea, are causing a record increase in ice on the Greenland ice sheet.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI

This is the real story going on in the Arctic – the one you will never hear from government climate scientists.

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80 Responses to Arctic Alarmists Headed For Rough Times

  1. lance says:

    At one time, we simply called it ‘weather’.

    Then, along came the eco-wako’s.

  2. Steve Case says:

    And they continue to get away with the “Methane is 86 times more potent than CO2” bullshit.

  3. Sunsettommy says:

    Willis Eschenbauch,using MODTRAN,shows how minor CH4 really is:

    “Dr. Tom, a most interesting post. I never considered that.

    Of course, being a man who checks everyone, I went to MODTRAN to check your assertions. I found the following increases in longwave absorption if we double the methane concentration. Here’s how absorption increases when you double the methane.

    Clear Sky Tropics +0.75 W/m2 from doubling of methane
    Clear Sky US Standard Atmosphere +0.69 W/m2
    Clear Sky Subarctic Winter +0.34 W/m2

    Note that these are reduced somewhat if there are clouds. On a global average, then, it seems that a doubling of methane would lead to an increase in absorption of somewhere around half a W/m2 … color me totally unimpressed.

    So your claim is upheld by MODTRAN, my congratulations … always more for me to learn, thanks for schooling me on methane.”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/11/methane-the-irrelevant-greenhouse-gas/#comment-1611332

    In the link is a link to his Modtran results.

  4. Sunsettommy says:

    Watch how, a few warmist bigots will ignore the Greenland snow and ice growth,to cry over a tiny reduction of a small area of the floating ice cap.

    3,2,1……

    • griff says:

      huge reduction of the floating ice cap, I think you mean

      and yes, there’s been a lot of snow in Greenalnd this winter…

      But that does not tell us the ice cap is going to grow – wait for summer.

      • AndyG55 says:

        No there isn’t .

        You are LYING yet again

        new ice is slightly down, old ice is WAY up on 2013.

        DENY the facts, griff….. make up LIES .

        the griff way.

        • griff says:

          What counts is how much of that ice is over 2 years old. The red is everything which has survived one summer.

          and it is nowhere near as thick or as old as it was pre-2007

        • AndyG55 says:

          Massive increase in MYI since 2013..

          GET OVER IT griff,

          you are even LYING to yourself now. !!

  5. Ed Bo says:

    Tony — Thanks for concatenating those plots. Very informative. If you could do one with the “latest” data added on as well, it would be a great thing to be able to show Chicken Littles.

  6. JRo says:

    If my math is correct, the Artic (north of the 80th parallel) contributed -0.90C to global warming in 2016. See https://www.reddit.com/r/theydidthemath/comments/5tpkzh/request_based_upon_official_daily_mean_temps/.

    (You might benefit from loading a LaTeX extension into your browser, see https://www.reddit.com/r/theydidthemath/wiki/index )

  7. John Niclasen says:

    The animation showing sea ice being pushed out of the Arctic Sea into the North Atlantic is great! Very informative!

    The big winds, ocean currents, and oscillations seem to be a big part of the overall understanding.

  8. Lasse says:

    A Norwegian study proves You are correct. Ice is escaping south into the Atlantic.
    They studied Ice between Iceland and Greenland and found this transport.

  9. This is BOMBSHELL stuff Tony…

    So if I understand your graphs, the average annual extent is currently about 12×10^6 km^2 or so. And the “climatology” from 1981 to 2000 is about ~13.5. But from 1937 to 1957, it was SIX POINT TWO. About HALF current for TWENTY YEARS?

    So on our current annual chart, given that the width of the confidence interval is about 2, and that equals ±2 sigma, that implies that 1 standard deviation of 1981 to 2000 is 0.5 (and the annual average is probably even narrower).

    So while our bed-wetters are complaining about being 3 sigma “below average” for a “long time”, which couldn’t possibly be natural, they are inconveniently leaving out the fact that the 40’s were (13.5-6.2)/0.5 = 14.6 sigma BELOW AVERAGE and it was without a doubt natural.

    Conversely, we are CURRENTLY (12-6.2)/0/5 = 11.6 sigma ABOVE AVERAGE for the 1937 to 1957 climatology! The probability of being that far off the average by chance is 2.06E-31. That means that (by their argument), it is virtually impossible that the current vastly beyond natural ice cover was natural. In other words, we are entering an ICE AGE. Maybe THAT is why the polar bear populations are skyrocketing.

    In all seriousness, this comparison, if I’m reading this correctly, should be made at CPAC. I’m sure you can fuse the charts together and make that argument and show the incredible foolishness of worrying over a few sigma either way like we do. The fact is, ice levels are currently HUGE compared to the 30’s – mid 40’s.

    Steal any of this idea you like… Mike S.

  10. LexingtonGreen says:

    Tony,

    How is it that “NASA’s Evidence of Climate Change page has not been updated with the extended sea ice graph. I am salivating waiting for that page to be annotated with facts and not the specious crap that fills the page now.

    It is going to be golden if their image of Mt. Kilimanjaro has the climate gate emails talking about sublimation and not climate change and how they hate that being an example of global warming when there is not warming.

    And one can go on and on through each of their points that don’t stand the test of time.

  11. neal s says:

    Just read another ridiculous article …
    https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/244461-mad-scramble-rescue-federal-climate-data-trump-administration-war-science

    Fortunately some of the comments have some sense in them.

  12. AndyG55 says:

    Growth of multi-year ice is very obvious since last year . Good flicker chart. :-)

    What might be interesting in the ice flow animation would be to see what the ocean currents were doing at the time.

    ps. Tony, is any chance that when you put multiple pics up the top you could number them or something, for easier referencing from within the thread ?

  13. AndyG55 says:

    CR shows that the “less cold” anomaly has moved away from the Kara Sea are.. very little left.. We could see a climb in Arctic sea ice over the next few days, bringing it up into the spaghetti pack.

    Its now moved to Northern America/Alaska/Canada, providing some blessed relief from the freezing cold they have been experiencing (still blow zero C , though.)

  14. AndyG55 says:

    And as we saw yesterday, temperatures in Svalbard have dropped way below freezing.

  15. Jim Hunt says:

    Tony – It seems that you’ve never met Grace before? Let me introduce you:

    • Gator says:

      GRACE does not measure ice, it measures gravity anomalies. I measure corpses, and find your team responsible for 7,000,000 deaths every year.

    • Sunsettommy says:

      Jimmy,

      Tony wrote this that you ignored:

      “The same southerly winds which have kept sea ice extent down in the Barents Sea, are causing a record increase in ice on the Greenland ice sheet.”

      Grace doesn’t directly measure the snow and Ice field.

    • RAH says:

      Grace? The last refuge of alarmists! When no other data set can show what they want to see they turn to GRACE! They know it’s worthless as a true measure of the amount of ice and snow but when all else fails they run and hide behind it. The GRACE satellites are a failed experiment when it comes to accurately quantifying ice coverage.

      • AndyG55 says:

        Trouble is, that they measure gravity changes, and both Antarctic and Arctic are over active magma areas.

        This make GRACE measurements in these area basically pointless for ice, because magma movements have FAR more effect on gravity than ice does.

        Wasn’t it GRACE that once showed a mountain in Indonesia where one doesn’t exist. And totally missed that set of islands that suddenly appear recently.

        Only a small errors, I know. ;-)

      • AndyG55 says:

        What we need to remember is that Jimbo only knows what his Exeter Uni climate troughers send him.

        Anything else just doesn’t exist to him.

      • gator69 says:

        Grace? The last refuge of alarmists! When no other data set can show what they want to see they turn to GRACE!

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qovk8_wIdn0

    • AndyG55 says:

      Greenland total ice mass since 1900, Jimbo

      …. get some perspective you moronic twit.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        Andy – I think you’re mixing me up with Tony? For the mathematically challenged amongst us

        -ΔGrace >> ΔSMB

        Were you previously aware that 97% of all known climate scientists are of the opinion that global warming leads to increased precipitation? Looks like last year was pretty darn warm, doesn’t it?

        • gator69 says:

          100% of these kids could be saved if genocidal ice lovers like Jim actually cared about human beings.

        • AndyG55 says:

          You have just PROVEN yourself to be a mathematical illiterate, Jimbo.

          The funny thing is, that you are so inept , that you don’t even realise what a monumental mathematical FOOL you have just shown yourself to be. :-)

          You really better go and get one of your Exeter ‘boys’ to give you some basic maths lessons, if any of them are capable.

        • AndyG55 says:

          You probably don’t even know what GRACE actually measures, and why Antarctic and Greenland are an issue.

          GRACE measurements for the Antarctic were proven to be very wrong. I wonder why. ;-)

          Remain IGNORANT , as usual , Jimbo, you have already proven that you are Climate Change DENIER #1,

          …you may as well keep adding other forms of WILFUL IGNORANCE to your slate.

  16. CO2isLife says:

    This article tries to tie all the forces together. The fun thing is going to be how the climate alarmists blame the thickening of the ice on CO2.
    Climate “Science” on Trial; Sea Ice Sophistry
    https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/01/28/climate-science-on-trial-sea-ice-sophistry/

    • Gail Combs says:

      With the switch in the PDO and AMO and a sleepy sun plus the oceans last big exhale of heat (2015-16 El Nino) I expect to see the ClimAstrologist tying themselves in knots trying to explain the expanding sea ice, nasty winters and cool summers to come. Only the increase in hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards and drought, thanks to cooling weather will fit the narrative. Which of course is why Weather Weirding has already been floated in preparation for the cooling weather.

      • RAH says:

        It’s setting up to be another El Nino year Gail. Bottom fell out of the SOI. -40.

        • RAH says:

          Bottom really dropping out of the SOI. It’s now nearly -51. Indications that another El Nino year is coming are very strong.

      • griff says:

        Gail, that’s just fantasy.

        We are ending this winter/freezing season with a record low extent and thin and broken up ice.

        This year will, sadly, see another record low… certainly as low as 2016/2007 and not improbably challenging the 2012 record.

        What will you say then, next September?

        • AndyG55 says:

          “that’s just fantasy.”

          Only person here living in a fantasy is YOU, griff,

          Your absolute DENIAL of the facts puts you fairly and squarely in the highest ranks of climate denial.

        • AndyG55 says:

          NSIDC now has 2017 Arctic sea ice extent GREATER than 2016.

          Weep and wail, griff. :-)

  17. griff says:

    That’s a record low for February, not for the whole year.

    We also saw record lows for January, November and at least part of October.

    What is difficult to understand about ‘lowest value recorded in month x’ ?

    That even through the winter/freezing season we are seeing much less ice, year on year. surely indicates something??

    Oh – that ice age chart seems only to cycle to 1996?

    I am not sure we have one to cover this winter yet, but it will show much less MYI, with much, much less over 2 year MYI

    • AndyG55 says:

      “That’s a record low for February,”

      NO its not.

      .. you continue to DENY climate history. !!

      It is actually rather high, way above Holocene average.

      Again you IGNORE and DENY any sense of climate history.

      griff …. CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER #2.

      • griff says:

        A little more evidence and a little less screaming ‘liar’ would be a better response, don’t you think?

        What are you going to say when the extent figures for 2017 come out?

        • AndyG55 says:

          Plenty of evidence has been given over time,

          You have always just ignored it.

          WILFULLY IGNORANT you will remain.

          The extent for 2017 will be WAY above the first 3/4 of the Holocene, which was often ICE FREE in summer.,

          Why do you continually DENY climate change, griff.?

          Is it because you are a compulsive DENIER as well as a compulsive LIAR

          • Griff says:

            Again, what conditions produced low ice in the early holocene?

            And are those conditions in effect now?

            No.

            So some other effect is producing lower ice, isn’t it?

          • AndyG55 says:

            No it isn’t . its just NATURAL cycles.

            Deny the AMO, deny the Little ice age

            Deny the MWP

            Deny the Holocene optimum

            All you have is Deny, deny, deny..

            … and LIE, LIE , LIE

        • gator69 says:

          A little more evidence and a little less screaming ‘liar’ would be a better response, don’t you think?

          A little more caring for your fellow man and a little less screaming ‘ice’ would be a better response, don’t you think?

          Imagine it is your family starving to death, while some a55hole debates how many polar bears can dance on the head of an ice berg.

          • Griff says:

            How does posting evidence on the science of arctic sea ice translate into not caring for my fellow man?

            Inuit are having trouble maintaining their traditional lifestyle due to changes in the ice. should I not care about that? Perhaps you do not care about that??

            Nobody’s family starves due to accurate research on arctic sea ice.

          • Gator says:

            How many Inuit will starve to death today Ms Griff? Do I need to post the TED talk again you murderous idiot?

          • AndyG55 says:

            Why do you never mention the extreme negative anomaly over Russia for most of the winter , griff…

            You don’t give a stuff about that, do you.

            Just want to pish your pathetic warmist agenda by commenting on Arctic ice

            You are a deceitful, anti-human, little cretin.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Furthermore, you TOTALLY IGNORE the real science of the Arctic… ignore that there WAS a Jet stream weather event.

            You are not the least bit interested in what is really happening in the Arctic, unless it gives you a chance to yap. !

          • Gator says:

            It is almost amusing to see Ms Griff “care” about Inuit traditions, but not the millions of innocent human beings that the IPCC systematically snuffs out every year. Ms Griff must think we are complete morons, if she thinks we believe she cares about the Inuit people. If the Inuit lived anywhere else but the Arctic, Ms Griff would gladly ignore them to death too.

          • AndyG55 says:

            “Inuit are having trouble maintaining their traditional lifestyle due to changes in the ice. ”

            LYING yet again.

            Just making up BULLSHIT as usual.

            The Inuit regions are NOT where the sea ice WAS struggling. They live in areas that have regularly been BELOW normal this year.

          • RAH says:

            Ice is and always has been ever changing and the Inuit’s have always been a nomadic people that move when conditions where they are located become too difficult. Leftists always think everyone is dumber than they are but in reality it’s the other way around.

      • AndyG55 says:

        That’s a record low for February..

        Not any more, not even this century.

        2017 has just overtaken 2016, and because the “less cold” blob has moved elsewhere, being replaced with negative anomalies in two of the main areas where it was struggling, I suspect the sea ice extent will continue to climb rapidly.

        You poor, pustulent little worm, griff,

        there goes your yapping point. :-)

    • AndyG55 says:

      MYI is WAY up from 2013.

      DATA proves that griff is just FABRICATING NONSENSE.. just like he always does.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        Cherry picking again Andy? Tsk, tsk!

        Have you forgotten what happened in 2012?

        • Gail Combs says:

          Of Course we remember all the LYING!

          And then the explanation that never made it into the Yellow Stream Media.
          Arctic Storm Reduced Sea Ice

          …The Great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012” arose in Siberia on Aug. 2 and crossed the Arctic Ocean to Canada, lasting an unusually long 13 days. The cyclone hit a pressure minimum of 966 millibars on Aug. 6, the lowest ever recorded for an Arctic storm, professors Ian Simmonds and Irina Rudeva of the University of Melbourne in Australia report in the Dec. 15 issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The pressure reading is only 26 mb higher than Hurricane Sandy’s record low of 940 mb. (A typical low-pressure system usually hits around 1,000 mb.)

          “This pressure minimum and cyclone longevity are very atypical of Arctic storms, particularly in August,” the authors write in the study. “We conclude that [the storm] was the most extreme August Arctic cyclone.”…

          The paper: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL054259.shtml

          • Jim Hunt says:

            Wonders will never cease Gail.

            You agree with me about Andy’s cherry picking!

          • gator69 says:

            Starvation never ceases! Thanks to Jim and his team of genocidal ice lovers.

          • AndyG55 says:

            According to NSIDC, 2017 Arctic sea ice extent now above that of 2016.

            And that “less-cold” variation over the Kara Sea has gone.

            Keep chewing on your socks, Jimbo..
            I’m sure you enjoy the flavour from wading in your sewer.

        • AndyG55 says:

          No more than you ever do in your continued DENIAL of pre-LIA sea ice levels.

          Jimbo the sewer-rat = CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER #1.

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