Latest From The “Super-Hot” “Melting” Arctic

All winter, the usual band of climate criminals have been claiming that the Arctic is “Super-Hot” and “Melting.”  What is actually going on is that winds have been pushing ice from the Barents Sea over towards the Bering Sea, where there is now a large excess of ice almost extending to the Aleutian Islands..

‎nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent.png

The ice is thick along the Alaskan Coast, where they are having very cold weather.

This animation shows what has gone on since last summer. Thick ice pushing from Russia towards Alaska.

DMI Modelled ice thickness

Ice in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas is much thicker than it was nine years ago.

The last two summers, Arctic alarmists got very lucky when late summer winter-like storms broke up the ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. But the longer term impact of those storms is that they cooled the deeper waters of those two seas, making it harder to melt the ice this summer.

The excess ice in the Bering Sea will slow the start of summer melt this year. It is unlikely that the Arctic will be ice-free in 2014, as the Nobel Prize winner predicted.

Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

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64 Responses to Latest From The “Super-Hot” “Melting” Arctic

  1. AndyG55 says:

    Hook dangled :-)

    • RAH says:

      Around here Tony trolls with lures or spoons with at least two treble hooks on them.

    • Stewart Pid says:

      Tony will hook a Big Mouthed Griff if he is not careful. I hear they are bottom feeders ;-)

      • gator69 says:

        Tony is angling for a specific species…

        • RAH says:

          Looks like SUCKER to me! They don’t have that kind they had them over in England though. Over there instead of suckers they have eels and the blood sucking Lamprey. But in the huge body we call the internet one can find all kinds of bottom feeding sucker fish from every corner of the earth.

  2. The Iconoclast says:

    Anything they call attention to is inherently cherrypicked, so they’ll ballyhoo something else, record heat in Sausalito or whatever.

    Notice the dead silence about Antarctic ice. If they were honest they would admit not just that the models predict a decrease in ice extent when there’s been a huge increase for decades, but they’d acknowledge that the discrepancy is a powerful indictment of the predictive capabilities of the models.

    Instead… cherrypicked alarmism as far as the eye can see.

  3. Robertv says:

    “Thick ice pushing from Russia towards Alaska.”

    There you have it, Vladimir Poetin again.

  4. gator69 says:

    The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.
    -A. Ice

  5. Sunsettommy says:

    Griff, I think stated there will be no summer ice this year,she said so over at WUWT.

    If true,then she is in for a surprise.

    • Griff says:

      I have said that this year is again going to be in the top three record lows.

      It has the potential to beat 2012, given the right weather conditions.

      It is STILL showing a record low for the time of year.
      The volume is still at record low levels.

      The ice has been churned around and broken up, it is thin and the remaining thick ice is still being exported out of the Fram strait.

      • Latitude says:

        so you’re saying the wind dood it

      • AndyG55 says:

        If you consider that the LIA started in 1600 ish, then the ONLY periods in which Arctic sea ice has been higher than now would be from probably around 1550 – 1925 and from 1978-2008

        That is a total of about 400 years out of the last 10,000 years, but let’s say 500 years, for the sake of argument.

        That means that Arctic sea ice has been LOWER than now for about 95% of the Holocene.

        Wouldn’t you agree, griff.

        • Griff says:

          You have to answer the question: why was it low before?

          Then: do we see the same conditions now?

          • AndyG55 says:

            High solar activity.

            And no , we don’t have the same conditions. It is colder than then, that is why the Arctic sea ice extent is still much higher.

            Why was Arctic sea ice extent so HIGH during the LIA, griff.?

            Why do you want to return to that bitter cold period..

            more deaths from cold, is that what you want?

            … while you use your dole for heating your basement in your granny’s house.. little leach that you are..

          • Latitude says:

            “You have to answer the question: why was it low before?”

            Griff, no one on this side has to answer that.
            …you do

            If you can’t explain it…then you can’t blame it

  6. CO2isLife says:

    Tony, you’ve been vindicated. Nature validates your comments:

    Speak of the Devil; Nature Confirms the Arctic Sea Ice Atmospheric Circulation Theory
    https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/03/26/speak-of-the-devil-nature-confirms-the-arctic-sea-ice-atmospheric-circulation-theory/

  7. Susan Corwin says:

    Well,
    If the Arctic becomes less covered,
    …….it means bigger glaciers over Chicago, Moscow, et al.
    when the Antarctic does its “thing” to freeze things up.
    …which it appears to be doing nicely.

    But then, most people don’t understand “heat pumps” and
    sending warm air to a “dark place the sun don’t shine”
    …is beyond their “laser-focused tunnel vision”.

  8. Joe says:

    “But the longer term impact of those storms is that they cooled the deeper waters of those two seas, making it harder to melt the ice this summer.” It is amazing how nature seemingly is thinking several moves ahead to produce a certain result, leaving warmists dumbfounded. Great analysis again, Tony.

  9. Joe says:

    Here’s another piece of evidence confirming no connection between Arctic ice-free summers and atmospheric Co2 levels. Check it out: Seasonally ice free Arctic summers occurred during the early Holocene from 11,700 BP – 6000 BP. Arctic temperatures at the time were 5-8 F warmer than they are today, and yet Co2 levels were only around 265-270 ppm: http://www.biocab.org/Holocene_Delta_T_and_Delta_CO2_Full.jpg And: https://markgelbart.wordpress.com/tag/seasonally-ice-free-arctic-ocean-during-the-holocene/

    • Griff says:

      https://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/jbg/Pubs/Polyak%20etal%20seaice%20QSR10%20inpress.pdf

      Yes, ice free conditions did occur then. and this paper explains why.

      “Numerous palaeoclimate archives and numerical simulations suggest that the Arctic was warmer than present day during early and middle Holocene with peak air temperatures occurring at slightly different times in different regions (Kaufman et al., 2004 and Renssen et al., 2012). While reconstructing paleo-sea ice extent from proxies is a challenging task (de Vernal et al., 2013), there are several independent studies of Arctic Ocean sea ice proxies suggesting that parts of this period was also characterized by less sea ice over large areas and potentially even sea ice free summers (e.g. Vare et al., 2009, Hanslik et al., 2010, Funder et al., 2011 and Müller et al., 2012). The cause of this sea-ice minimum, occurring between about 6000 and 10,000 years BP, is often attributed to the northern hemisphere Early Holocene Insolation Maximum (EHIM) associated with Earth’s orbital cycles (Jakobsson et al., 2010, Polyak et al., 2010 and Müller et al., 2012). Insolation is in this context defined as the down-welling short wave (SW) radiation at the top of the atmosphere. Although the global mean insolation has been nearly constant during the Holocene, there have been significant latitudinal variations in insolation. These changes are mainly due to variations in two of Earth’s orbital parameters: the obliquity and the precession (Berger, 1978). As a result, the annual mean insolation was around 5 Wm−2 larger at 80°N during the EHIM compared to present day conditions (Fig. 1a).”

      It was orbital cycles.

      and now we see a great reduction in sea ice -but different orbital cycles.

      So the early Holocene is irrelevant, in as much as we see ice loss in a totally different set of circumstances.

      Absent orbital effects, what is causing the lowest ice since the early Holocene??

      • AndyG55 says:

        Since the first 3/4 at least of the Holocene you mean, don’t you griff.

        You really shouldn’t cut and paste stuff you don’t comprehend.

        The early Holocene is absolutely relevant, no mater how much you would like to DENY it.

        There has only been a period of some 500 year, through the LIA and the recovery from that coldest of periods, where Arctic sea ice was higher than current

        So in the last 10,000 years of the Holocene, Arctic sea ice extent has been LOWER than now for some 95% of the time.

        STOP DENYING CLIMATE CHANGE, griff.

        It makes you look more and more like a child-minded fool.

        • Gail Combs says:

          A new approach for reconstructing glacier variability based on lake sediments recording input from more than one glacier

          …. A multi-proxy numerical analysis demonstrates that it is possible to distinguish a glacier component in the ~ 8000-yr-long record, based on distinct changes in grain size, geochemistry, and magnetic composition…. This signal is …independently tested through a mineral magnetic provenance analysis of catchment samples. Minimum glacier input is indicated between 6700–5700 cal yr BP, probably reflecting a situation when most glaciers in the catchment had melted away, whereas the highest glacier activity [growth] is observed around 600 and 200 cal yr BP.….

          So in Norway the highest glacier growth was 600 years and 200 years before present.

      • Joe says:

        Griff – Arctic temperatures during the early Holocene were 5 – 8 F warmer than today… with lower Co2 levels – So yes, that is what our current orbital cycle produces – A colder Arctic. Even with our current supposedly ‘milder’ Arctic, it is still 5 – 8 F colder than the early Holocene.
        Did you overlook that?

        Given that we currently don’t have ice-free summers in the Arctic, and ice-free forecasts have failed to date, it is plausible to conclude natural forcings trump Co2, not to mention tiny human Co2.

        • Griff says:

          I’m merely trying to point out that there were very different conditions when the arctic was last ice free – which means that any decline now is due to a different reason and we should look at what that reason is…

          The point being that the arctic is currently warming and the ice decreasing without orbital influence and in excess of natural variation.

          That declining ice trend and warming is also continuing – no sign of any ‘up’ part of the ice cycle.

          The point being we are heading further toward ice free summers… this summer will alas be another step in that direction.

          I don’t think you can demonstrate the current situation is a step in ‘recovery’ to (say) 1979 levels ??

        • AndyG55 says:

          Why do you always make stuff up as you go along.

          You know the current level is higher than it has been for some 95% of the Holocene.

          So stop yapping !!

  10. Sunsettommy says:

    Jim Hunt, suddenly stopped disparaging MASIE, gee i wonder why………

  11. Jim Hunt says:

    I’ve been busy Tommy. The sun’s come out in Soggy South West England! I’ve been cycling and surfing!! And that’s not all!!!

    FYI Tony, Anthony Watts “snipped” a comment that linked to your blog. Why would he do that, do you suppose?

    Getting back to BAU, have you seen all the thin ice in the Bering, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas? Don’t forget the Laptev and Kara Seas either, and of course all the “multi-year ice” in the Barents Sea MIZ.

    • Latitude says:

      I link to Tony’s blog on WUWT all the time…and my comments are never deleted

      …you must have said something against the rules

    • AndyG55 says:

      Oh look. Tony hooked a stunned mullet, in the form of Jimbo the clown.

      WOW , look at all that thick sea ice on Jimbo’s chart.

      Well done, Jimbo.

      Did you know that there has only been about 500 or so years, through the LIA and the recovery from that coldest of periods, where the Arctic sea ice was higher than present ??

      Arctic sea ice levels have been LOWER than now for around 95% of the Holocene.

      Wouldn’t you agree, Jimbo?

    • AndyG55 says:

      While we are at it, Jimbo

      Do you have any information on Canadian Ice Service values for whole of Arctic multi-year sea ice.

      .. or do we stick with OSI and the Russian data that shows a steep climb in multi-year sea ice over the last 10 years.

      Enquiring minds what to know what your favourite CIS has to say about this.

      Please don’t run and hide, like a cowardly little worm, yet again. ;-)

      • Jim Hunt says:

        Andy – Since you asked so nicely, I’ll pass on this message from OSI-SAF to you:

        Concerning the ice type product, there is as you point out a systematic problem that gives multi-year ice in some young ice areas, and we are working on improving that.

        • AndyG55 says:

          “Do you have any information on Canadian Ice Service values for whole of Arctic multi-year sea ice.”

          Avoiding that question yet again.

          You truly are a cowardly little worm, aren’t you.

          Russian data shows multi-year sea ice increase, as does OSI.

          What does CIS say about Arctic multi-year sea ice that counters that?

          WAITING for you to continue to run and hide.

          All scientists try to improve their work….

          …pity you never have,

          you just dig deeper and deeper into your sewer.

          • Jim Hunt says:

            Andy – At the risk of repeating myself:

            OSI-SAF say:

            “Concerning the ice type product, there is as you point out a systematic problem that gives multi-year ice in some young ice areas, and we are working on improving that.”

            WAITING for you to continue to run and hide.

          • Griff says:

            I think that strangely the CANADIAN ice service concentrates on CANADIAN waters…

            Never mind – here are some trends in Canadian waters they’ve supplied some of the information for:
            http://www.enr.gov.nt.ca/state-environment/14-trends-arctic-sea-ice

          • AndyG55 says:

            All scientists always try to improve their work.

            Why don’t you, Jimbo

            why do you continue to sink deeper and deeper into the slime?

          • AndyG55 says:

            Just the same old stuff, hey Griff.

            AMO based natural cyclic change, showing sea ice that is still way above the Holocene average.

            Why won’t Jimbo just answer the question. !!

            Why is he running and hiding.?

          • AndyG55 says:

            Have you got any other data to contradict that multi-year sea ice is increasing.? Jimbo

            Some minor areas of possible contention, but still a solid increasing trend in both OSI and Russian multi-year sea ice for the last 10 years..

            And no amount of yapping will change that fact.

          • Jim Hunt says:

            Well, here’s the latest observation of the ESS for you Andy:

            http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#ESS

            Can you see all the ice that’s “much thicker than it was nine years ago.”?

          • AndyG55 says:

            poor Jimbo, still cherry picking just the parts he wants to see.

          • AndyG55 says:

            You do know that current levels are FAR higher than the first 3/4 0f the Holocene, don’t you Jimbo.

            Or do you still have that deep-seated wilful climate change denial ?

            And how many times have I said I’d love to see it go lower, to open up the Arctic for commerce etc for the first time in some 400-500 years.

            That would be absolutely marvellous for all those living in the region.

            Wouldn’t you agree, little yellow-back

          • AndyG55 says:

            How about we look at a bigger area of the Arctic Jimbo, and do a direct comparison of multi-year sea ice 2008-2017.

            Even wilfully blind Jimbo could see the increase.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Arctic sea ice has really done extraordinarily well this year, considering the massive hot spot that got anchored over the Franz Josef region basically all spring and summer.

            Wouldn’t you agree, Jimbo, griff. !

            You would of course, totally ignore the flip side of that weather event, that actually KILLED people because of the massive cold anomaly that was over northern Russia at the same time.

            But, we all know.. a tiny reduction is sea ice extent is MUCH more important to Jimbo and griff than people actually DYING.

            Wouldn’t you agree, Jimbo, griff. !

          • AndyG55 says:

            Just to show everybody just to STUPIDLY MORONIC Jimbo’s little picture is, I’ve shown that area in red outline on the whole Arctic.

            You need to rotate it about 130 degrees anti-clockwise to match

            But really it shows just what a PATHETIC attempt it was from Jimbo.

            He really is a clueless, base-level clown !!

  12. Jim Hunt says:

    Griff – From your link:

    Last Updated: June 2, 2015

    A lot’s happened since then!

    http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/

  13. AndyG55 says:

    Repeating that chart here so its big enough for all to see.

    • AndyG55 says:

      left is 2008, right is 2017…. early March.

      Dark is multi-year sea ice.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        The OSI-SAF email included this information which you may be interested in?

        “Trends in MYI extent must not be done by comparing single years, as there is natural variation from year to year. 2007 was a record minimum in total summer ice extent and the extent of MYI in March 2008 was at a minimum due to this.

        If the same comparison was done March 2005 – March 2017, this would show very different results. But this is an ever lasting problem, with natural variability you can get very different trends, if you choose your data period as you like and not look at a long enough period.”

        Looks like they saw you coming?

        • AndyG55 says:

          Jimbo doesn’t have the faintest idea what a cycle is .

          His ignorance is becoming hilariously stupid.

          Go back and learn something about the AMO, and the fact that Arctic sea ice has been lower than now for some 95% of the Holocene.

          You are the one being CONNED Jimbo, because you don’t have the intelligence to be anything else but conned.

      • AndyG55 says:

        ” 2007 was a record minimum in total summer ice extent ”

        Thanks for confirming EVERYTHING that we have been saying

        You really do love eating your sewer filled socks, don’t you, yellow-back.

  14. AndyG55 says:

    And here are some from November back to 2011, again showing an obvious increase to anyone without blinders on. Big gains in mid thickness sea ice.

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