Climate Science Peer Review Is Complete Garbage

A brand new peer reviewed study says the number of days per year with killer heat in the US is going to skyrocket.

Study shows deadly heat waves are becoming more frequent – Chicago Tribune

The study doesn’t specify what temperature killer heat occurs at, but regardless of what that temperature is, the claim is incorrect. The frequency of 90 degree days in the US has declined sharply over the past century.

The frequency of 95 degree days in the US has declined sharply over the past century.

The frequency of 100 degree days in the US has declined sharply over the past century.

The frequency of 105 degree days in the US has declined sharply over the past century.

The author cherry picked a start data of 1980 after the cold 1970’s, but that doesn’t work either. All trends since 1980 are also downwards.

There is – quite literally – zero evidence backing up the article’s claims. In fact all available data shows the exact opposite of the author’s conclusions. There is no question that the frequency of hot days in the US is declining and has been for a century.

The fact that such wildly fraudulent garbage can get through peer review in climate science shows how corrupt the field is. In climate science, the only thing that matters is that you produce a conclusion which supports global warming theory.

The article also complains of temperatures in Northern California up to 106 degrees – as if that was unusual and due to global warming.. On this date in 1929, temperatures were 110 in Northern California and 122 in Southern California. Temperatures were 120 degrees in the Phoenix area. CO2 was 305 PPM.

Climate science has nothing to do with science, and is the biggest scam in history.

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44 Responses to Climate Science Peer Review Is Complete Garbage

  1. John F. Hultquist says:

    … computer simulations to determine how much more frequent they will become under different carbon dioxide pollution scenarios.

    Seth Borenstein authored the article linked to, so it really isn’t worth the keystrokes. Camilo Mora is a young assistant professor of geography. Geography associations have accepted the catastrophic global warming notion – jumping in with both hands held out for research funds.
    Unlike Strabo, al-Idrisi, Köppen, Leopold, and many others the current geography researchers have taken to looking at LED monitors rather than through field-glasses while out in the real world.

    The computer work usually involves reliance on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from possible through impossible: 2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5.
    One often sees the research based on
    . . RCP 4.5 – total radiative forcing is stabilized shortly after 2100.; or …

    . . RCP 8.5 increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time, representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to high greenhouse gas concentration levels.
    Note the word impossible, above.

    The computers missed the memo that they should not be crunching these stupendously stupid scenarios.

    Many years ago (early 1960s), an elder of the geography profession wrote an article titled, something like this:
    A Fable for the Education of Young Geographers.
    Time for an update.

  2. Arn says:

    Of course the number of “Killer Heat”-days will sky rocket,
    as once again an undefined,meaningless and unscientific term(killer heat) was created to spread fear.
    And by tampering data and cooling the past the number of killer heat days
    will skyrocket.

    Even the number of victims will rise(even without faking data)
    as population and poverty are rising while energy supplie is going down
    at the same time((thx to closing down power plants))
    Less people will be able to afford and run air conditioning
    and more will suffer and die from heat.

    Killer Heat will be as dangerous as Killer Bees ,which were supposed to kill a bazillion of american people according to some experts many years ago.

    And of course “killer heat” will increase ,as this term is as arbitrary as climate change it can be used in the same inflationary way and from now on normal and
    average hot days which used to happen in the past will no longer be
    hot (dog) days but killer days,
    and average joe will say in 2037:
    “When i was young climate was so much cooler.
    We used to have just 25 days above 35 degrees celsius and no killer heat days at all,
    while nowadays we have 13 days of killer heat((days above 33 degrees celsius))a year.”

  3. gator69 says:

    A team of researchers examined 1,949 deadly heat waves from around the world since 1980 to look for trends…

    FFS, do they not realize we rightly mock anyone who uses 1979ish start dates for climate?

    I guess they are truly finished and out of ideas. It appears they have shot every arrow, and have now thrown the bow.

    Somebody turn out the lights, and let’s put this to bed.

    • Arn says:

      Please do not blaspheme their sacred year 1979.
      That’s their holy year,
      the year climate was crucified ,
      the year of the scientific big bang.
      The year responsible for rebranding carbon as pollution.
      The year which brought to existence an avalanche of useless bolshewik scientists
      who can just take from others and theorize and talk,talk,talk
      and who are always right(a communistic illness which can not be cured) while their prediction always fail as thex simply ignore reality..

      Today,in the year 38 of George Orwell,we have to realise that in science
      reality is defined by taking an extreme(eg. the year ’79)
      make people believe that this extreme is the norm
      and that the norm is the extrem.
      1979 is the new 1948.

      • Arn says:

        oops-
        1979 is the new 1984
        (orwell missed the date by half decade)

        • Advocatus Diaboli says:

          Curiously, 1948 (the first year that you’d typed) was the year that Orwell’s novel was published. So the way you wrote it first, sounded just fine to me! :-)

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      They are not done yet, gator. They still have a few potent weapons left …

    • gator69 says:

      1979 was also the year that “Rapper’s Delight” was released, staring the hip hop craze in America. 1979 was also the zenith of the disco craze.

      It was a very bad year, and the alarmists can have it.

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        And the snowboard was invented …

      • Arn says:

        Well,disco was to ruin the white society with hedonism and drugs.
        Hip Hop for the black society.
        Both as the next level of the hippie era.

        Worked out very well.
        (and you can see that societies without hippies,disco and hippie mentality are much healthier and wealthier and
        less desintegrating and disfunctional than those with)

    • TA says:

      “A team of researchers examined 1,949 deadly heat waves from around the world since 1980 to look for trends…

      FFS, do they not realize we rightly mock anyone who uses 1979ish start dates for climate?

      I guess they are truly finished and out of ideas. It appears they have shot every arrow, and have now thrown the bow.

      Somebody turn out the lights, and let’s put this to bed.”

      That’s right! The only hope the alarmists have is that the temperatures start going up and stay up. They are out of arguments otherwise. No doubt they will try to use the coming summer heat as evidence of CAGW, but that summer heat might not be as fierce as in the past and it might cool off quickly, so they are hanging on by a thread. :)

      It sure has been a mild summer around here, in Oklahoma, so far. We will take one like this every time. That is, one with few big tornadoes and lots of rain. We can still get a “heat wave” around here but time is starting to run short for that, too.

      In the past, we could usually count on any heat waves we were under to break about the middle of August, which is usually the hottest part of the year, and then it starts to cool off, most of the time. That’s a pretty good rule of thumb.

      Some years heat waves set up early in the year, March, for example, and that’s bad because it gives plenty of time for high heat to build up and up. That’s not the case this year, or for the last few years. So our “heat wave” season is already shortened, and we are just waiting to see when the high pressure starts building over the central U.S., and how long it stays in one place.

      The longer a high pressure system sits on top of a location, the hotter and drier it gets underneath. Sometimes they sit over places for weeks to months. You can tell where the center of a high pressure system is on a weather map by locating the hottest temperature on the map. That’s it. Sometimes meterologists don’t outline the high pressure systems adequately.

  4. AZ1971 says:

    Well, you know, inevitably the AGW crowd will look at this article and say, “Yes, but the U.S. isn’t representative of the whole planet.” And that’s true. But the caveat is that (a) “the whole planet” is so poorly sampled for temperature records as to be useless for any mid- to long-term reconstruction, and (b) we don’t live on the world’s oceans.

    • tonyheller says:

      The author was mainly targeting the US, because that is one of the few places with actual data.

    • CheshireRed says:

      They select stories to suit their agenda.

      No snow in Whistler = proof positive of a man made disaster.
      US data goes against AGW theory then ‘the US is only 2% of Earth’s surface’.

      It’s a Bunko Booth; heads I win, tails you lose.

  5. R. Shearer says:

    Summer skiing at Whistler is out due to GW. Article doesn’t mention Cali resorts.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/ski/news/shrinking-glacier-whistler-cancels-summer-ski-snowboard-camp/

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      Heh.

      Global warming caused “a prolonged cold spell”—“the best season ever for North American resorts”—and that’s why there was less “wet cement spring snow”.

      The global warming narrative deteriorates into self-parody and farce:

      Global warming blamed as summer skiing on Whistler glacier is cancelled for first time in 30 years
      Joe Mahon, travel writer
      23 June 2017

      An annual coaching programme in Whistler has been cancelled for the first time in almost 30 years, with the founder commenting that “global warming has decimated the glacier and our ability to run a summer camp.”

      The 2016/17 winter saw a prolonged cold spell – in fact, some hailed it as the best season ever for North American resorts – but it hasn’t been enough to make a difference to Camp of Champions’ prospects.
      “This year’s snow pack is less dense than usual because we enjoyed such a long cold winter,” Achenbach explained. “We didn’t get the wet cement spring snow that builds the snow pack we count on.

      “In a nutshell, there isn’t enough snow to deliver what we promised. For this to happen after such an exceptional winter makes this news even harder to take.”

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/ski/news/shrinking-glacier-whistler-cancels-summer-ski-snowboard-camp

      [emphasis mine]

      Ken Achenbach’s Camp of Champions is filing for bankruptcy because the 2016/17 winter was too long and cold (because global warming and because science).

      —–

      Thanks for the link—it goes into my archive as either supreme idiocy in climate science reporting or, alternatively, a clever sabotage of the stupid global warming narrative by the article writer.

      I will keep my mind open which it is.

  6. gator69 says:

    Chicago saw 762 homicides within its city limits last year alone. A little warming should be the least of their concerns, especially if you consider what created the really big lake found there.

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      True, but the warming that created the really big lake also turned the land to the west of it into banana country, just like climate scientists predict will happen everywhere.

      Global warming is a serious problem.

      http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/06/20/illinois-careens-into-financial-meltdown-and-not-even-lottery-is-safe.html

      Illinois careens into financial meltdown – and not even the lottery is safe

      Illinois is grappling with a full-fledged financial crisis and not even the lottery is safe – with Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner warning the state is entering “banana republic” territory. 

      Facing billions in unpaid bills and pension obligations, the state is hitting a cash crunch that is rare even by Illinois standards.

      A top financial official just warned 100 percent of the state’s monthly revenue will be eaten up by court-ordered payments. Rauner is calling a special session of the Democrat-led General Assembly in a bid to pass what he hopes will be the first full budget package in almost three years.

      And Illinois will – literally – lose the lottery if the budget fails. 

      The state lotto requires a payment from the legislature each year. The current appropriation expires June 30, meaning no authority to pay prizes. In anticipation of a budget deadlock, the state already is planning to halt Powerball and Mega Millions sales. 

      “It is disappointing that the legislature’s inability to pass a budget has led to this development and will result in Illinois lottery players being denied the opportunity to play these popular games,” Illinois Lottery Acting Director Greg Smith told Fox News.

      “We’re like a banana republic,” Rauner said earlier this month, after the General Assembly failed, yet again, to pass a budget package by the regular session deadline.

      “We can’t manage our money.”

      http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/06/20/illinois-careens-into-financial-meltdown-and-not-even-lottery-is-safe.html

      Even the lottery! It’s good they have the underlying problem in sharp focus:

      June 21, 2017
      Mayor Emanuel Announces Climate Summit for North American Cities to be Held in Chicago

      Mayors from the United States, Canada, and Mexico will meet in the fall to articulate commitments to the Paris Agreement

      Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel announced today that Chicago will partner with the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy and all of its partner city networks to host a climate summit for North American cities in the late fall. The summit will bring together Mayors from across the United States, Canada, and Mexico to outline each city’s respective commitments to the Paris Agreement on climate change via new programs and initiatives.

      https://www.cityofchicago.org/city/en/depts/mayor/press_room/press_releases/2017/june/ClimateSummit.html

      • gator69 says:

        Less like a banana republic, and more like a cargo cult. Build it and they will come…

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          Maybe, but if American Eagle operated a fleet of cargo cult-built aircraft instead of Bombardier CRJs they could have ben known for 100% reliable non-service from Phoenix and avoided bad PR on hot days.

          Illinois and Chicago are onto something.

        • RAH says:

          I have my own personal “cargo cult”. Rocky Patel Cargo, Nicaragua
          Hecho A Mano
          Bought a bundle of 16 Toros and a second bundle of 16 of a mix of three varieties of 5 Vegas cigars Robustos and enjoying them very much thank you.

  7. CheshireRed says:

    There’s always been an issue with alarmists’ trying an argument by assertion, hoping the public won’t have the ability or will to counter their claims. Tony has shown again and again how so many assertions are actually fabrications, with this post being just the latest example.

    These trends are almost 100 years old. They should be enough to be called climate (rather than weather) yet show obvious cooling trends. A smaller cooling trend (or even a zero trend) is showing out to 50+ years. However you look at this data it’s plain that ‘runaway warming’ has indeed run away, which is another massive fail for climate change theory.

  8. Bitter&Twisted says:

    Seth s*cks.

    When will this blatant propaganda be properly exposed?
    I’m not a US citizen, so cannot write in to “Clinton Trumpet” (Chicago Tribune) to complain about Boremestiff’s outright lies.

    Please do on my behalf!

  9. TA says:

    This article is a keeper. It blows away all these “hottest ever” claims.

    How can scientists not know, or ignore, if they do, this kind of evidence? Any unbiased person could identify the trend, and it’s not “up”, as the CAGW promoters claim.

    • David A says:

      Even Hansen used to admit that the US had cooled. That remanant of a scientist within him in the early 80s has long since died.

  10. Andy DC says:

    It looks like 1980 was the last heatwave truly worthy of our grandparents, and that there has only been one second rate heatwave (2012) so far during the 21st Century. Not much to show for all the alarmist’s hysteria about catastrophic man-made warming.

    In the meantime, in the real world, record to near record cold over much of the US this weekend through the middle of next week and then yet another impressive cold snap as we approach the 4th of July.

  11. md says:

    The author here has not done an apples to apples statistical comparison. He is showing average days over a temperature threshold in a time series of geographically averaged temperature data.

    This study isn’t using a geographical average. This study is thresholding the global data and then looking at the world population close to stations which exceed that threshold. See how those are two different metrics?

    • tonyheller says:

      Idiotic comment. The sort of garbage we have come to expect from climate alarmists.

    • gator69 says:

      Tony, you have offended the faithful yet again. Remember, you must…

      1- Always start graphs during cool periods
      2- Ignore past warm periods that were warmer, and beneficial to mankind
      3- Ignore the pause
      4- Ignore that fact that the models have been falsified
      5- Ignore massive data tamopering
      6- Ignore the UHI effect
      7- Deny natural variability and the scientific method

      I believe in CO2, the Gas Almighty,
      Creator of Warming on Earth.
      I believe in Climate Models, the only guides, our Lords.
      Which are conceived by the Navier-Stokes,
      Born to make climate scary
      Suffered under climate skeptics
      Were crucified by emails, dead and buried;
      They descended into Hell;
      On the Third Assessment Report they rose again from the dead;
      They ascended into policy heaven
      And sitteth on the right hand of the Administrator Almighty;
      From thence they shall come to judge the emitters and the dead.
      I believe in the Hot Spot;
      The Holy Scientific Consensus;
      The Communion of Experts;
      The forgiveness of emissions;
      The resurrection of Gaia;
      And the Gas Everlasting.
      Amen.

    • RAH says:

      md

      Please provide us the scientific definition of “killer heat” with attribution.

    • sunsettommy says:

      md, what you wrote is gibberish since the AMERICAN based charts Tony posted ranged from 90 degree days to 105 degree days. They ALL show a decline over a 100 year time frame.

      He was replying to the AMERICAN newspaper, the Chicago Tribune,

      “The United States is going to be an oven,” said Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii, lead author of a study published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.”

      That was the LEAD Author stating this whopper.

      Phoenix and Las Vegas Arizona,average over 100 degree F highs in July and August, yet 1.5 Million people live in Phoenix and 650,000 in Las Vegas. How do you explain that,md?

      Las Vegas:

      June 100° F (38° C) 69° F (21° C)
      July 106° F (41° C) 74° F (23° C)
      August 103° F (39° C) 74° F (23° C)

      Phoenix:

      June 104°F 78°F
      July 106°F 83°F
      August 104°F 83°F
      Sept 100°F 77°F

      Far more people die of cold winter weather than of Summer weather.

  12. RAH says:

    “But the study predicts that up to three in four people worldwide will endure that kind of heat by the end of the century, if global warming continues unabated.”

    So the authors are deniers of “the pause” which has now been acknowledged by Benjamin D. Santer, John C. Fyfe, Giuliana Pallotta, Gregory M. Flato, Gerald A. Meehl, Matthew H. England, Ed Hawkins,
    Michael E. Mann, Jeffrey F. Painter, Céline Bonfils, Ivana Cvijanovic, Carl Mears, Frank J. Wentz, Stephen Po-Chedley, Qiang Fu & Cheng-Zhi Zou and many others.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/20/the-new-consensus-on-global-warming-a-shocking-admission-by-team-climate/

  13. Colorado Wellington says:

    This is terrible, horrible and very bad. And scary.

    The ground-breaking peer-reviewed Mora et al study discovered that a combination of temperature and humidity can become lethal:

    When analyzing the climatic conditions for those cities, the researchers discovered a common threshold beyond which temperatures and humidities became lethal. In agreement with human thermal physiology, the threshold was such that as relative humidity increases, lower temperatures become lethal.

    “Finding a threshold beyond which climatic conditions turn deadly is scientifically important yet frightening,” said Farrah Powell, a UH Manoa graduate student and one of the co-authors in the study. “This threshold now allows us to identify conditions that are harmful to people. And because it is based on documented cases of real people across the globe, it makes it that more credible and relevant. The scary thing is how common those deadly conditions are already.”

    https://med.news.am/eng/news/14617/deadly-heatwaves-will-continue-to-rise-study-finds.html

    And some people may die at 73.4 °F (23°C):

    For heatwaves, our options are now between bad or terrible,” said Camilo Mora, an academic at the University of Hawaii and lead author of the study.

    Mora said the threshold to deadly conditions caries from place to place, with some people dying in temperatures as low as 23C.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/19/a-third-of-the-world-now-faces-deadly-heatwaves-as-result-of-climate-change

    I reckon Tony must expand his scope and chart the historical incidence of deadly heatwaves during days above 70°F.

    Because science:

    Science Says Summer Is Going to Be Ruined for Many Years to Come

    http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/06/thanks-to-climate-change-summers-not-just-getting-hotter-its-getting-deadlier

    Until now people believed there were 21 things that can ruin you summer. Science says it is 22.

    It’s clear that more research is needed.

  14. Anon says:

    Hi Tony,

    It is actually more pernicious than that. I am a scientist and a few years back I was working on an invasive species project, in collaboration with another scientist who was a nationally recognized carbon scientist. The project we were working involved elucidating the chemical mechanism behind the sudden proliferation of this organism. It had nothing to do with AGW as my colleague was aware and often admitted. However, another group came along and connected the problem with AGW. Guess who won the next round of grants and who lost funding? At the time, we laughed it off, as bad luck, and were not willing to protest and naively thought that losing the money was a small price to pay if it helped stopped AGW. We thought eventually the scientific community would get back to understanding the molecular mechanism, even if it was not our group. At the time I dismissed all you folks as non-scientific ‘deniers’. At the time I did not have the perspicacity to understand what was going on behind the scenes (the $$$ train, etc) and believed 97% scientific consensus on AGW. The upshot and summary to all this is that the AGW bandwagon is diverting money from other other non-AGW related fields of research, slowing or stymieing their progress. Just thought you should be aware of this spillover effect.

    I know what you are doing is hard work, emotionally and at times political daunting, but it is making a difference. Slowly but surely I do believe the truth will come out as the data is pealed back and exposed. Thanks for your all your efforts.

    You are reaching people!

    • Andy DC says:

      There is no doubt that global warming causes an increased incidence of jock itch. What we really need are several million dollars in grants for further research into that topic, so that we can determine through computer modeling what the increased rate of jock itch will be in the year 2100. That is FAR more important than researching cures for cancer, Alzheimer’s, diabetes, etc.

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