New Ice-Free Arctic Date

Arctic sea ice volume melt rates dropped sharply again yesterday, so I am going to have to push my ice-free forecast back to September 14, 2018 at 9:26 am.

Spreadsheet    Data

I’m actually being quite conservative with this forecast, as our leading government climate experts say the Arctic is screaming, and will be ice-free by the year 2012.

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18 Responses to New Ice-Free Arctic Date

  1. Crashex says:

    This sort of tangential projection analysis is necessarily accurate at some point every year! And, many scientists believe it accurate for more than half the time each year!

  2. MrZ says:

    I sill have a good feeling (post modern) about 2018 vs 2014. The lines will cross August 28.
    Sorry Tony your forecast is dead wrong 8-) (pm’s have no sense of irony)

  3. W Barkley says:

    A line on a graph does not go on and on in a straight line forever.
    Too many “experts” use this for predictions.
    You are great at exposing this foolery.
    Enjoy all your hard work.

    • Johansen says:

      This is no joke. Here’s a sample problem from a SAT test prep guide used in schools…. nothing but brainwashing

      • R. Shearer says:

        A chart showing a full sine wave cycle would be too complicated and spoil the narrative.

        • Johansen says:

          Yes, it’s odd why a SAT test guide needs to use an Icon of Global Warming example just to illustrate line-fitting. The whole ‘metanarrative’ saturates down through the school system. A very bright girl in my chemistry class was praising the merits of Communism

          • Snowleopard says:

            Perhaps you could gift her a copy of one of Alexander Solzhenitsyn’s works, for counterpoint?

  4. R. Shearer says:

    I think the mass of Seth Borenstein and David Appell grew by 50% since that first projection. I estimate a doubling in their mass by 2030 unless they give up use of fossil fuels by then.

  5. Steven Fraser says:

    Some numbers for DMI Sea Ice Volume for the 20th:

    2018 is still #4, and is up a bit to 111.59% of the 16-year average (in the upper end of the 1st std deviation,) and 113.25% of the DMI-graphed 10-year (2004-2013) period (in the lower end of the 2nd-std deviation).

    2018 declined -174 cu km since yesterday, a reduction in the change rate of 30, nearly identical to that of #3 2003 (-171), and a lower daily decline rate than #2 2014 (-205) and #1 2014 (-209). The 2018 decline rate is less than the average of -185 for the day.

    Comparing the 7-day aggregate decline rate to the peak decline period this year, 2018 did have the highest average decline rate on July 12 and 13. Since then, the 7-day average decline rate has lessened each day.

    The gap between 2018 and 2003 is now 300 cu km, up a few since yesterday. The 2018 gap with #5 2005 it has narrowed, and is now 145.


  6. John F. Hultquist says:

    A long long time ago we learned that two points determine a straight line.
    Three points not on a straight line – – there’s the rub.

  7. gregole says:

    Excellent work here using techniques developed by the best Klimate Pscientists money can buy. I believe such sophisticated statistical numeric analysis is referred to in the trade as “Mike’s Nature Trick” to “Hide the Decline”. This “Trick” can be applied to anything Klimate Pscience related. Bravo and bully-bully. This my friends, shows the real power of “Consensus Science”.

  8. Martin says:

    Don’t stop bullying the warmists Tony. We all know that the arctic is not going to be ice free in atleast tens of million of years.

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