Slowest Ice Melt On Record

Arctic sea ice volume loss has been the slowest in the DMI record this summer.  The amount of ice melting from May 1 to July 27 has plummeted during the last fifteen years.

Spreadsheet    Data

Spreadsheet    Data

This is not surprising, because it has been the coldest summer on record at the North Pole, with temperatures below normal almost every day for months.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

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60 Responses to Slowest Ice Melt On Record

  1. Griff says:

    I’m sorry, but this is complete nonsense.

    Yes, a slow melt season at the start. That’s just weather: not a change in climate.

    some area on the periphery melted slower – Hudson, Kara… and some melted early – Bering and Barents.

    The ice retreated further from Svalbard than it usually does in September.

    This is a typical 2010s melt season, with thin fractured ice
    https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_visual.png

    and currently 7th lowest in extent for the date, pushing on for 6th

    and now the melt is catching up…

    • Gator says:

      What was the ice extent for this date in the year 109? 1242? How about 1974?

      And why do you hate poor brown people so much?

    • Andy DC says:

      Showing one chart for one year is meaningless. How does is compare to 2008?
      1968? 1928? I would bet not that much difference. The entire scam rests on picking a record high sea ice year (1979) to start your charts

    • tonyheller says:

      The only thing catching up is 2018 rapidly approaching the highest minimum volume in the DMI record.

      • Anon says:

        About two months ago, Griff said you (Tony) would stop posting about this issue once the Summer Warming Period kicked in. Now he is flaking another argument; that the data is not indicative. He would be a lot more convincing if he just admitted that he was WRONG. For any independent thinker, who actually considers what he posts, Griff and his position is an ethical turn-off. All that is left of Griff’s position is his insistent belief that we should join him next year in the pumpkin patch again to wait for the Great Pumpkin appear. (this gets tiring and if you have a dram of ethics about you, and is quite revolting).

        Griff, go back to what you wrote two months ago and stand by your statements. Better to admit you were WRONG than demonstrate you are unethical.

    • Cornelius says:

      “… a slow melt season at the start.”

      The volume graph clearly shows slow melting throughout, not just at the start. In the spread of 16 seasons of volume measurement, the 2018 black line consistently migrates toward the top. And melt season is very nearly complete.

      Your statement makes absolutely no sense. I’m going to guess that you’re not the type to admit that your high-confidence prediction of a big 2018 melt season was completely wrong and unfounded.

    • Cornelius says:

      “… with thin fractured ice”

      The link in no way indicates that the ice is thin. The DMI images are very clear, indicating unusually high average thickness for the past 16 Arctic summers.

      Your claims are consistently baseless. I’ve known a small number of people like you in my life. They’re obsessed with some belief, and no amount of data or logic can shake them from it. Their cognitive dissonance manifests itself in ridiculous, easily falsifiable statements. It may be time for some self-assessment.

    • gregole says:

      Griff,

      Tony has posted publicly available Arctic Ice information, which you characterize as “…complete nonsense.”

      Really? Riddle me this: “Will the Arctic be ice-free this year? If not, why not and when will it be ice-free? Further, what concentration of CO2 will be required (a range of values is acceptable) to melt all the Arctic ice in summer?”

      Please keep your answer short, to the point, and back it up with data. You speak with an unwavering certainty that indicates to me you know more than you let on.

      Bonus: When will Phoenix, Arizona, my home town, be uninhabitable due to M@nn-Made Global Warming. Currently, Maricopa county, home to Phoenix, is the fastest growing county in the US.

      Thanks in advance!

      • Anon says:

        The other interesting thing, going back two months ago, Griff said Tony would stop posting this data and others warned Tony that early melt might not be indicative. (myself included) All well and good, Tony went ahead anyway with the prediction, despite the warnings. Now when the data bears Tony out (who took the chance) Griff claims Tony’s data is now not indicative. All sophistry, I find it nauseating.

      • R. Shearer says:

        You have it wrong. Griff intentionally or subconsciously often announces what his post that follows will be, e.g., “I’m sorry, but this is complete nonsense.”

        Therefore, one can save time by not reading that nonsense from Griff.

    • Mr Grimnasty says:

      “That’s just weather: not a change in climate.”

      So is the ‘global heatwave’ aka a nice summer.

      Glad we agree on something.

    • Josh says:

      Griff, why always on about Arctic sea ice extent when its the volume that threatens the sea level?

    • spike55 says:

      Poor griff, you really are the village idiot, and a LIAR as well, aren’t you

      Basically EVERYTHING you said was WRONG.

      Is it from IGNORANCE or was it INTENTIONAL. ??

    • spike55 says:

      And no, it is NOT the 7th lowest.

      Its actually a LONG WAY ABOVE 90% of the last 10,000 years.

    • Gerald Machnee says:

      **Yes, a slow melt season at the start. That’s just weather: not a change in climate.**
      If you want to post a comment Griff, make sure it makes sense.
      Remember, that your Warmista friends are saying that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. So tell us how this summer follows that. And while you are at it show the data.

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      Tony Heller wrote:

      “Arctic sea ice volume loss has been the slowest in the DMI record this summer. The amount of ice melting from May 1 to July 27 has plummeted during the last fifteen years.

      This is not surprising, because it has been the coldest summer on record at the North Pole, with temperatures below normal almost every day for months.”

      Ms Griff replied:

      “I’m sorry, but this is complete nonsense.”

      She is, of course, unable to provide any support for her statement because everything that Tony wrote are facts and he shows the data.

      I think it’s pretty clear where Ms Griff studied logic and trained her mind. When you tell a Marxist something like this:

      “In 1999 Hugo Chavez started a socialist revolution to transform Latin America’s richest economy and today Venezuela is on a brink of collapse.”

      The moron replies:

      “That’s complete nonsense. Imperialism is that highest stage of capitalism, rotting and decaying. The oppressed working classes will defeat the ruling capitalist class.”

      • JCalvertN(UK) says:

        Re: “Imperialism is that highest stage of capitalism, rotting and decaying. The oppressed working classes will defeat the ruling capitalist class.”
        1/ So said clueless Karl Marx. It’s a credo that is about as worthless as “I believe in the tooth fairy.”
        2/ Capitalism is a relatively modern development. It largely replaced feudalism and mercantilism. Imperialism is as old as civilisation itself, and seems to stem from a deeply ingrained aggressive characteristic in the nature of humans and other upper primates.
        3/ The former empire called the USSR was not capitalist.

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          Che would defeat you with dialectics and have you shot for any single one of these 3 points.

          “The true revolutionary is guided by a great feeling of love. It is impossible to think of a genuine revolutionary lacking this quality.”

          “To send men to the firing squad, judicial proof is unnecessary. These procedures are an archaic bourgeois detail. This is a revolution! And a revolutionary must become a cold killing machine motivated by pure hate. We must create the pedagogy of the paredón.”

          —Ernesto Che Guevara

    • spike55 says:

      “I’m sorry, but this is complete nonsense.”

      Great title for your post, griff.

      Why is it that the ONLY time you are ever correct, is by accident.

  2. Bob Hoye says:

    The DMI chart on temp N of 80 is readily available, including the archive.

    Click on each year and the plot for each summer shows a struggle between the amount of solar energy reaching the surface and the rate of melting. It takes a lot of energy to melt the ice and there is not much left over to raise the temperature.
    However, there seems to be a slightly lower temp record each season beginning around 2000. Of course, 2016 was an outstanding El Nino peak.
    It will be interesting if this season’s plot dips below the freezing line before the usual date. Which “eyeballing” seems to be on August 23rd.

  3. Anon says:

    As an off topic aside, everyone here ought to watch this documentary. It will shake your belief in the WaPo, NYT and the rest of the MSM forever:

    https://www.real.video/5811804296001

    I am not posting the title, because it only helps those who are looking to find it and remove it. (It probably won’t be up for long, so take advantage of the opportunity.) Any educated person in the West, who thinks of themselves that way, ought to take the time to see it.

    • Anon says:

      Tony, FYI: you might want to keep an eye on real.video, they are positioning themselves as the “free Speech” alternative to youtube as that platform becomes increasingly totalitarian.

      • gregole says:

        A tangled web indeed! Thanks for spotting and posting that Anon.

        I gave up on the media after Climategate I in 2009. It took me a while; almost another year; but as I followed the Climategate story on my own and then compared it to on-going media non-coverage, followed by whitewash, followed by business-as-usual coverage of CAGW it finally dawned on me MSM was systematically lying.

        I was a big magazine reader – Newsweek, Scientific American, etc. It was a good day for me when “my magazines” would come in the mail. I’d come home from work and sequester myself and read them cover to cover. I loved the snappy prose, the pictures, the feeling that I was part of a bigger world.

        I gave them all up cold-turkey once the realization set in that it was all an elaborate con-game; controlling information, some topics outright suppressed; others topics grotesquely distorted.

        It was quite the wake-call.

        And it’s gotten worse – a lot worse.

        • Anon says:

          Gregole: It took me a lot longer unfortunately. :( Wikileaks in October of 2016 blew the lid off for me. (Same as you, addicted to the MSM, thinking I was an “educated” person.) I was also teaching AGW as a scientist at University. What I discovered in Wikileaks was: that if they had no qualms about falsifying an election (Bernie Sanders) what might they be doing to the Climate Data? I had written off all the skeptics and deniers as tinfoil hat types. Anyway, due to Wikileaks open my mind a bit, I thought I would do due diligence and spend a few days hearing out (scientifically debunking) the skeptic’s arguments.

          I could not do it… so I am here. ;(

          • Anon says:

            Gregole, actually back in 2009 I was in so deep that I could not believe the Dems wasted their political capitol on the ACA, when Cap Trade was so much more important and planet saving. For years, I thought this way, Obama had an opportunity to save the planet and went with Obamacare. Now, I realize that was a fortuitous outcome, Cap & Trade would sent us down a very dark path.

          • gregole says:

            Anon,

            Paraphrasing: “people go mad in crowds and regain their sanity one-by-one.”

            It’s interesting to me to hear your history of discovery; and that you’re a scientist. I’m an engineer and first became aware of Climategate thru the WSJ. It looked like an interesting story – scientists caught with their hands in the cookie jar I thought to myself. This should be good! I attempted to follow the story in print media but the story petered out.

            I thought it was the scientific scandal of the century – if only I could get more details… I turned to the internet – found out about Mosh’s book (Crutape Letters) which I read in like two sittings. All those names, all those characters – those dreadful emails – it was like reading a Russian novel like War and Peace and trying to keep track of everything.

            I don’t even count myself as a “skeptic” or “denier” or “lukewarmer”. I hate titles people give themselves and each other.

            I don’t know what’s going on with the added CO2. The best measurements we have, which are sparse and approximate, show not much of anything out of the ordinary – natural climatic shifts that have been going on, for all intents and purposes, forever.

            CAGW looks to me to be just another fad based upon a shared unconscious cultural sense of cleanliness – a kind of cleanliness fetish. It has been said “we are using the atmosphere as a sewer…” with our CO2 “emissions”, which are “Man-Made”.

            The whole thing is shot through with powerful mythic images. Men (Man-Made). Filth (Carbon Pollution). Blind, Profligate Greed and Waste (Evil Oil Multinationals). Planetary Destruction – Mother Earth Pillaged. And AFAIK the most absurd: We Have To Do Something About It.

            As I have stated in earlier posts, Geology is not my interest – my Father was an amateur geologist and my brother-in-law a professor of Geology – me? No interest.

            CAGW has left the realm of science, reason and logic far behind for something a lot juicier. Faddy factoids, scare-stories, all playing to deep-seated human fears and fetishes; this stuff fascinates me.

            I hope enough people can see thru the mystical fog that has grown to surround this topic before we enact even more draconian, pointless public policy to “fight” Man-Made Global Warming from “Carbon Pollution”.

            https://smarthistory.org/goya-the-sleep-of-reason-produces-monsters/

          • Anon says:

            Gregole, I wonder what I would have thought in 2009, had I seen that or been aware of the Climate Gate emails? Climate Gate was never mentioned in the media I was consuming (or so minimally covered that I missed it), so I never had the opportunity to absorb it until years later. Guilty as charged: consuming MSM content and believing that I was an “educated” person. I laugh at myself now, but not in a happy way.

        • Cornelius says:

          It’s such an ugly day when that realization sets in.

  4. oeman50 says:

    Geez, don’t you folks know that CO2 causes ice to melt below 0 degrees C? It is intelligent because it causes hot/cold, snow/heatwave, flood/drought and knows exactly when to do it!

  5. Steven Fraser says:

    Stats for July 27 DMI Sea Ice Volume:

    2018 is still #4 for volume, now at 114.94% of the 16-year average, and 116.68% of the DMI-graphed 10-year 2004-2013 years. Compared with both averages, the values have risen farther above the 1-sigma line, in the 2nd standard deviation group.

    Decline since the day before was -127 cu km, 3rd lowest for the day, and a lesser decline than #1 2004 (-179), #2 2014 (-173) and #3 (-168). As a result, the gap between this year and those decreased.

    Compared with the sliding 7-day decline rate, 2018 was 4th lowest.

    Stay tuned!

  6. Joe says:

    “it has been the coldest summer on record at the North Pole, with temperatures below normal almost every day for months.”
    Is this the year the inter-glacial ends?

  7. Phil. says:

    “This is not surprising, because it has been the coldest summer on record at the North Pole, with temperatures below normal almost every day for months.”

    And for the first 140 days of the year the temperatures were above normal almost every day (by as much as 20ºC). Before that above average for almost every day for the last 120 days of 2017. So 260 days above average followed by about 60 days below.

    • spike55 says:

      Winter was similar to 1976

      This summer is much colder.

      hint, phlop.

      Ice melts at around 273.15K

      Try to learn

      • Phil. says:

        Winter was similar to 1976

        No it wasn’t, according to DMI the winter anomaly in ’76 was ~3ºC, whereas this last winter was ~8ºC.

        This summer is much colder.

        Well we’re only 2/3 of the way through the summer so it’s a bit early to judge. I’d be surprised if it turned our to be more than 0.5ºC colder than ’76.

    • sunsettommy says:

      True Phil, but ALL of it well below freezing. That is the misleading part you leave out.

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        Yes, it was below freezing but the Arctic sea ice lost faith and melted away. You need to consider the laws of physics in their proper social and historical context.

      • Phil. says:

        How do you think ice forms? The thickness of the ice formed during the winter depends on how cold it gets over a sustained period.
        By the way sea ice melts/freezes at about -1.8ºC, remember the traditional method of making ice-cream, adding salt to an ice water bath will depress its temperature depending on the concentration of salt. Perhaps the slightly lower than average temperature at the pole reflects the salinity of the ice there. Since much of the multiyear ice (less salty) has melted in recent years and been relaxed by younger ice (more salty) such depression of melting point is to be expected.
        A key measure for the thickness of the ice formed during winter is the number of freezing degree days (FDD), the thickness being approximately proportional to the square root(FDD). By the DMI’s measure last winter’s FDD was about 1400 below average, which they estimate led to 30cm thinner ice.

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          Phil, it’s good you didn’t lose faith. It may still melt if you believe hard enough.

          • Phil. says:

            Phil, it’s good you didn’t lose faith. It may still melt if you believe hard enough.

            ‘Faith’ has nothing to do with it, it’s the laws of physics as you mentioned above. DMI shows that the DMI +80 temperature is steadily increasing in the Fall, Winter and Spring. That will lead to less ice to melt in the Summer, consequently the laws of physics say that if that continues we can expect less and less arctic ice in the summer.
            http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plus80n/anoplus80N_summer_winter_engelsk.png

          • Gator says:

            That will lead to less ice to melt in the Summer, consequently the laws of physics say that if that continues we can expect less and less arctic ice in the summer.

            Yes, because nothing in nature is ever cyclical, everything is always linear and leading us ever faster towards the end of the world.

            Amen

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            ”DMI shows that the DMI +80 temperature is steadily increasing in the Fall, Winter and Spring.”

            “Well we’re only 2/3 of the way through the summer so it’s a bit early to judge. I’d be surprised if it turned our to be more than 0.5ºC colder than ’76.”

            “‘Faith’ has nothing to do with it …”

            Oh, really? Ok, then.

          • Phil. says:

            Yes, because nothing in nature is ever cyclical, everything is always linear and leading us ever faster towards the end of the world.

            Well the DMI data since 1960 doesn’t appear to show such a cycle. And I’m only talking about the possible end of the Arctic ice, not the world.

          • Gator says:

            Well the DMI data since 1960 doesn’t appear to show such a cycle.

            Phil, are you a New Earther?

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            “And I’m only talking about the possible end of the Arctic ice, not the world.”

            That’s a relief.

    • Gator says:

      Phil, what is the “normal” temperature of the Arctic? Is it warm like the cretaceous period, or cold like that last glaciation?

      Think hard!

  8. Phil. says:

    Phil, what is the “normal” temperature of the Arctic?
    Ask Tony, he used the term first and illustrated it by reference to the DMI +80 data, so I followed his example.

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