“The Arctic may be close to a tipping point that sees all-year-round ice disappear very rapidly in the next few decades, US scientists have warned.
The latest data presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting suggests the ice is no longer showing a robust recovery from the summer melt.
Last month, the sea that was frozen covered an area that was two million sq km less than the historical average.
“That’s an area the size of Alaska,” said leading ice expert Mark Serreze.
“We’re no longer recovering well in autumn anymore. The ice pack may now be starting to get preconditioned, perhaps to show very rapid losses in the near future,” the University of Colorado researcher added.The sea ice reached its minimum extent this year on 14 September, making 2006 the fourth lowest on record in 29 years of satellite record-keeping and just shy of the all time minimum of 2005.
‘Feedback loop’
Dr Serreze’s concern was underlined by new computer modelling which concludes that the Arctic may be free of all summer ice by as early as 2040.”
December 2006
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic sea ice ‘faces rapid melt’
If you formulate the problem as a catastrophe model, you do not need a computer to predict ‘tipping points’, they are inherent in the model. But, of course, if it comes out of a computer, it must be right.
There are thousands of feedback loops characterizing the climate, and probably millions characterizing the weather; only the few have been characterized The most important are negative, otherwise there would be no atmosphere, certainly not one which has lasted for four billion years. By being sufficiently selective and only implementing transient positive feedbacks, of course the computer will predict catastrophe, it’s what the climate models have been doing for forty years, and failing completely. The non-existent positive feedback of water vapour is probably the main culprit.
The fundamental reason positive feedbacks can only be transient is because they are net absorbers of energy from whatever is driving the system, so can only exist as long as that energy source is available. Gassing out CO2 is not a source of energy, contrary to the naive belief in the greenhouse effect.
Think of it as a million string harp; it requires external excitation for the strings to vibrate. If the excitation is near the resonance of one of the strings, that string will vibrate in sympathy. So the climate modes which are excited naturally correspond to cyclic events outside the Earth, and have nothing to do with the aperiodic activities of human beings. It is therefore ridiculous to try and model the climate without including the external, astronomic excitation of the climate modes.
An opera singer can shatter a glass by sustaining the note at its resonant frequency, although the energy of each individual cycle is tiny. The modellers look at the single cycle of excitation, and claim it is too small to consider. What they fail to take into account is the energy stored in the system from all the previous cycles, which is the reason the glass shatters.
The change in albedo due to an expanding ice cap is the classical climate science application of catastrophe theory to account for the onset of ice ages. The model ignores the effect of moisture content on lapse rate, so contrives a nonsensical argument to claim that the glaciation is stopped and reversed due to the greenhouse effect, rather than the increased lapse rate due to drying of the atmosphere.
Exposing sea water does indeed reduce the albedo (where the solar flux is small, and most of the heat is actually conveyed by ocean currents, not direct radiation), but also increases the local moisture content which will be expected to lower the lapse rate locally.
Dr Serreze should have his doctorate degree recalled.
Yep. His alma matter tried to recall his doctorate degree, but then he demanded a refund…
And here we are.
Doctor’s of WHAT – BULL SHIP- I just love the regurgitating over and over they are doing more to wake up the masses than Tony is
I like the optimism. But Goebbels believed that overwhelming repetition reinforces propaganda, in spite of no supporting data. So I’m not sure how much the masses have awakened.
Speaking of propaganda, the latest from the U.N., today: The planet is”on the brink.” And every person on Earth will be protected “…with an early warning system by 2027.” h/t arn
Everyone will have their own early warning system? How could they do that? Perhaps this?: https://newtube.app/user/Believe_it/xvq9zv0 <— Dunno, but if that's true, then perhaps the Cabal have considered their 2020-21 experiment a smashing success. (And I would doubt there will be any placebo batches when the next Scamdemic jabs are rolled out.)
I was always suspicious why those illegals are said to get smartphones for free in America and in Europe ( which is quiet a thing,especially in the era of component shortages durin covid ),
and why they are pushing so hard for g5.
Nice to get another Mosaic Stone for a bigger picture.
While I’m pretty sure they already have a kind of ranking about almost everyone of us( from total sheep – to crazy conspiracy theorist – must be Epsteined when things get serious) and
that they analyze everything that illegals say
and target all these groups with specific search results,news and advertising,
I still miss the target with the g5 thing.
Drugs…
or lack thereof…