We Have To Drool When The Bell Rings

A number of prominent skeptics are now on record saying “they have to adjust the raw temperature data.

The logic behind that being – the raw data has some margin of error in it, therefore we have to accept the systematic repeated data tampering by a few climate activists on the government dole.

This is the oddest bell shaped curve I have ever seen.

ScreenHunter_7077 Feb. 12 00.22

Suppose the doctor says “you may have a condition, I am going to attach leeches to your genitals to fix it.” Are you obligated to accept that solution?

If they are going to tamper with the data, they should adjust it down to compensate for UHI. Not adjust it up. The fact that some sources of possible error have been identified, tells you absolutely nothing about the validity of the data tampering implementation. Climate scientists have no training in signal processing, and no business attempting it.

UHI is real and accounts for almost all surface warming

ScreenHunter_7153 Feb. 14 23.46 http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/03/global-urban-heat-island-effect-study-an-update/

About Tony Heller

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32 Responses to We Have To Drool When The Bell Rings

  1. omanuel says:

    Climategate allowed us to detect the worldwide corruption of science that started at the end of WWII to save frightened leaders and the world from possible nuclear annihilation.

    World leaders have obviously worked together behind-the-scenes for the last seventy years, from the time the UN was formed in 1945 until 2015,

    directing tax public funds to scientists willing to manipulate, hide or adjust data and observations that would:

    1. Undercut UN’s Agenda 21:

    http://habitat.igc.org/agenda21/index.htm

    2. Reveal the Higher Power that makes and sustains every atom, life and world in the solar system:

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Solar_Energy_For_Review.pdf

  2. Alan Poirier says:

    Do not ask for whom the bell drools, it drools for thee.

  3. SMS says:

    UHI would only be real for the alarmists if it were to bolster their cause. It doesn’t so it has to be ignored. Not real science, but it does help the cause.

  4. Eliza says:

    The silence re SG and Homewood here is very telling. What you are both doing is having a devastating effect me thinks LOL
    http://judithcurry.com/2015/02/14/week-in-review-43/#more-17783

  5. Sophie says:

    I remember on WUWT when Mosher replied to a thread about problematical temperature readings, and said, ‘ You’ve got to fix the data.’

  6. Mikky says:

    Sceptics DO need to accept the need for temperature adjustments, otherwise the genuine problems found with GHCN/GISS will get lost in the noise of battle.

    You can only argue against an adjustment if several sets of nearby data are more consistent with the unadjusted. Just showing an isolated adjustment and moaning about it is like flying an airship over Syria, it will probably get shot down.

    • So you think the entire USHCN data set of 86,136,242 readings is an isolated adjustment?

      https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/screenhunter_7077-feb-12-00-22.gif?w=640

      I post graphs of US and global, and you respond with something about an isolated station.

      • emsnews says:

        Blackadder has a very funny skit about a Medieval doctor. They discuss how all things are cured ‘By a course of leeches’ for everything.

    • Gail Combs says:

      NO! Only the original observer can correct the data!!!! The correct method is to show the original dat with error bars.

      On Thermometer resolution, and ERROR
      http://pugshoes.blogspot.se/2010/10/metrology.html

      An analysis can be made WITH DOCUMENTED reasons for changes and with the ORIGINAL DATA FRONT AND CENTER.

      On top of that the various reasons for changes given turn out to be dreamed up without any real information to back them up.

      A couple of examples:
      Zeke Hausfeather states:

      ……Nearly every single station in the network in the network has been moved at least once over the last century, with many having 3 or more distinct moves. Most of the stations have changed from using liquid in glass thermometers (LiG) in Stevenson screens to electronic Minimum Maximum Temperature Systems (MMTS) or Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS). Observation times have shifted from afternoon to morning at most stations since 1960, as part of an effort by the National Weather Service to improve precipitation measurements.

      All of these changes introduce (non-random) systemic biases into the network. For example, MMTS sensors tend to read maximum daily temperatures about 0.5 C colder than LiG thermometers at the same location. There is a very obvious cooling bias in the record associated with the conversion of most co-op stations from LiG to MMTS in the 1980s, and even folks deeply skeptical of the temperature network like Anthony Watts and his coauthors add an explicit correction for this in their paper…..

      Anthony of course had The Mosh Pup and Zeke all over him until he did a TOBS adjustment. What is not mentioned is the original system had two separate thermometers. One mercury for the high temperature and an alcohol thermometer for the minimum temperature.

      Instructions were written and given out to the observers in 1882. There were two thermometers, one max and one min.

      For the maximum thermometer they state:
      “…When a maximum thermometer is not read for several hours after the highest temperature has occurred and the air in the meantime has cooled down 15° or 20°, the highest temperature indicated by the top of the detached thread of mercury may be too low by half a degree from the contraction of the thread….”

      That would indicate the max thermometer should be read just after the heat of the day and any adjustment for reading at the wrong tome of day should RAISE the maximum temperature not lower it!

      The last couple of days I posted on an 8.5 year side-by-side test conducted by German veteran meteorologist Klaus Hager, see here and here. The test compared traditional glass mercury thermometer measurement stations to the new electronic measurement system, whose implementation began at Germany’s approximately 2000 surface stations in 1985 and concluded around 2000.

      Hager’s test results showed that on average the new electronic measurement system produced warmer temperature readings: a whopping mean of 0.93°C warmer. The question is: Is this detectable in Germany’s temperature dataset? Do we see a temperature jump during the time the new “warmer” system was put into operation (1985 – 2000)? The answer is: absolutely!

      http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.Es2IbMZo.sAqMRsUB.dpbs

      Meteorology: A Text-book on the Weather, the Causes of Its Changes, and Weather Forecasting By Willis Isbister Milham 1918 mentions the Six thermometer and says the accuracy was not good so the US weather service used the two thermometers mentioned above.

      He also states there are 180 to 200 ‘regular weather stations ordinarily in the larger cities, 3600 to 4000 coop stations and 300 to 500 special stations.

      Meteorology: A Text-book on the Weather, the Causes of Its Changes, and Weather Forecasting By Willis Isbister Milham 1918

      The observations of temperature taken at a regular station are the real air temperature at 8am and 8pm, the highest and lowest temperatures of the preceding 12 hours, and a continuous thermograph record…. (Richard Freres thermograph) ….these instruments are located in a thermometer shelter which is ordinarily placed 6 to 10 feet above the roof of some high building in the city. At a Cooperative station the highest and lowest temperatures during a day are determined, and also the reading of the maximum thermometer just after it has been set. The purpose of taking this observation is to make sure that the maximum thermometer has been set and also to give the real air temperature at the time of observation.

      On page 77 —

      If a good continuous thermograph record for at least twenty years is available, the normal hourly temperatures for the various days of the year can be computed….

      “the average temperature for a day is found by averaging the 24 values of hourly temperature observed during that day”

      If the normals are based on twenty years of observations, it will be found that there is not an even transition from day to day, but jumps of even two or three degrees occur….

      This would indicate that as Steve says using a computer program to SMOOTH the data based on the ASSUMPTION a station move or other disruption occured is not justified. Heck we just went from a week with temperatures as high as 70F today with a high of 27F. The BEST program could ASSUME this drastic change in weather was a station change or what ever.
      …….

      I thought it quite interesting that Willis Isbister Milham was talking about 20 years of hourly data in 1918.

      On page 68 he says a thermometer in a Stevenson screen is correct to within a half degree. It is most in error on still days, hot or cold. “In both cases the indications of the sheltered thermometers are two conservative.”

      on Page 70
      “The Ventilated thermometer which is the best instrument for determining the real air temperature, was invented by Assman at Berlin in 1887…will determine the real air temperature correctly to a tenth of a degree.”

    • Ivan says:

      …and an interesting final paragraph in that article:
      In recent years significant work has also been done by the council to offset the “heat island” effect, a phenomenon in which cities stay warmer than other places because of their heat-absorbing materials such as dark roofs and urban canyons, which trap hot air.

  7. Stephen Richards says:

    I don’t know how many times I have repeated this mantra but here I go again.

    The changing of data after the fact is NOT SCIENCE, IT’S FRAUD. It is NOT supportable under any circumstance.

    • Gail Combs says:

      +1,000,000,000,000,000,000….

      I wish these pseudo-scientists could get that through their thick skulls.

      The major reason for not touching the original data is there is a very good chance the data is correct and your assumptions are wrong.

  8. gator69 says:

    As Blade pointed out recently, data is data, anything else is analysis. ‘Raw’ data is not ‘raw’, it is simply ‘data’.

  9. richard says:

    oh dear – how many stations are in urban areas-

    https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos-34.pdf

    go straight to e. population and values put on weather stations-

    ” urban warming is a phenomenon that the GSN would like to avoid, therefore more wight was given to rural or small towns.

    The value they give to Urban stations is 0.

  10. A C Osborn says:

    As I said to Mosher over at Climate etc. adjustments create a false Reality instead of describing it.

  11. Bob Greene says:

    All data have measurement error. Temperatures are variable. You can’t “adjust” this variability out. Climate “science” just ignores natural variability and the error introduced by their “adjustments.”

  12. smamarver says:

    Unfortunatelly, I agree that there’s much corruption in science and, above all, science is influenced by politicians, leding to altered datas, in order to serve some obscure interests. Too bad for all of us!

  13. pinroot says:

    Climate scientists have no training in signal processing, and no business attempting it.

    I’ve always wondered why alarmists thought it was ok to ignore inconvenient facts because the person putting them out “isn’t a climatologist” but have absolutely no problem with a non-statistican doing a statistical analysis of climate data.

  14. Dave N says:

    I’ll say it again: when I was in high school (long before the CAGW movement gathered momentum) we were taught that if you have contaminated data (i.e. any data that is unusable in it’s original state, and does not fit in with the rest of your data as a result) you *throw it out*.

    It still makes sense today, yet a number of “skeptics” think otherwise; I wouldn’t call them “skeptics” at all.

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