Global sea ice area has been above normal most of the year, and is averaging above normal in 2013.
The year over change in October 16 global sea ice area is the greatest on record : 44,000 Manhattans of new ice.
Global sea ice area is higher than 1979, and is the highest this millennium.
arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.global.anom.1979-2008
Government climate experts tell us that the poles are melting down, because they have absolutely no idea what they are talking about.
Hi Stephen, Thank you for your stellar analyses. I share your results with my branch. I work for the NWS and of course, I am surrounded by liberal scientists who have turned off their critical analysis cap. I shared you link to the NASA satellite imagery of western Greenland. Got some irrational comments from colleagues but when confronted with the facts they backed down. I have won every argument posted to the NWS Climate Forum. But the powers that be accused me of being inconsiderate and disrespectful. When I threatened to go up the chain-of-command, they backed down. It’s a matter of discussing scientific positions freely and without fear.
It’s really sad though, many NWS employees endorse my arguments in email but are afraid to post because they are afraid of retaliation. And other (younger) colleagues on the forum try to compose a rebuttal don’t really know the basics of the art of argument. They beg for my dogmatic acceptance of some higher authority and just regurgitate what they learned in college. They really don’t think they know how to think critically any more. I brought up Benghazi (argument from authority) and they pretty much-shut up. We still don’t know who executed the stand-down order. I guess we will never know. Please keep fighting the good fight. I think this will be a hell-of-a-winter in the East, 2013/14.
Regards,
-Jerry
Thanks for the comment Jerry. You give us all hope.
Additionally, as someone that goes to sea frequently, I truly appreciate what the NWS offers mariners — my go-to source for accurate weather forecasts. Please tell your alarmist comrades at NWS to stick with (untampered) emperical data…or seek a transfer to GISS or NOAA where their questionable ‘science’ would be a better fit.
“Government climate experts tell us that the poles are melting down, because they have absolutely no idea what they are talking about.”
Actually they say theses things because, as Willie Sutton said, “That’s where the money is”.
I know a good soup kitchen in the area for Jerrry Gorline. He is likely to need to use it, knowing what I know about the NWS establishment. I admire his bravery, but hate to see a good guy lose his job.
Global sea ie was probably much lower at times prior to 1979, which is actually very recent in geological time.
Of course the truth is more complicated. The Arctic sea ice mass continues on its downward trajectory but you all simply say it ain’t so because you see that pretty ice sheet from the air. Arctic shipping through the NorthEast and NorthWest passage exceeded 1 million tons in 2013. It was 1.2 million tons in 2012 and similar numbers of ships, tonnage unknown, in 2011. The practical effect, the business effect, is Arctic shipping is open for the third year in a row.
A scientist would never look at Antarctica’s sea ice and immediately conclude from that simple fact that global warming is not occuring. A scientist would want to consider the warming sea underneath, the extra fresh water a 100 feet down underneath that sea ice, the tunnels from the land mass to the sea, the stronger polar wind piling up ice and exposing more fresher water for freezing and other factors. A scientist would never just conclude that more sea equates to a stable or cooling planet.
ROFL – at the end of August, PIOMAS showed a 46% increase in Arctic ice volume over last year. Now it is probably over 50%.
As usual, you distract people with the year to year wiggles in the long term trend. There was less Arctic ice, on average, in the 2000s than there was in the 1990s. And there was less ice, on average, in the 1990s than there was in the 1980s.
You are getting dangerously close to spam
If you start in 1979, (after 20+ years of global cooling), sure the trend is down. Will admit that it has warmed some after the coldest period of the last 100 years. But reliable sea ice maps from the early 20th century show very little decrease. So all you are saying is that it cooled and then it warmed. Otherwise known as a weather cycle. Otherwise known as a cherry pick. Not catastrophic warming!
A degree and half rise in 100 years is not weather, but climate.
Also well within the range of Natural Variability, and to be expected at the end of a ‘Little Ice Age’.
gator, google little ice age and the first item to come up is a temperature chart going back well before. In context, the little ice age may have been littler than you presume. I know, they are all liars and frauds over there at goggle.
Avery Harden says:
October 19, 2013 at 8:49 pm
“A degree and half rise in 100 years”
==============================================
Since you’re so concerned with “facts”…..
….now post the true figure without cherry-picking the coldest years in the Hadcrut data set as your starting point, or converting to Fahrenheit.
“Avery Harden says:
October 19, 2013 at 9:38 pm
gator, google little ice age and the first item to come up is a temperature chart going back well before. In context, the little ice age may have been littler than you presume. I know, they are all liars and frauds over there at goggle.”
You are a complete moron. Either disprove NV or admit that you do not know.
What was the main cause of multi year ice reduction in the Arctic from the 1980’s to the 1990’s?
What is the main contributor for smaller ice cover in the first decade of this century?
Can you answer these two questions Avery?
“It’ll grow back; it’ll grow back…” 🙂
No, the truth is not more complicated Avery.
Example – The truth is that you have been indoctrinated by alarmists. You may say that truth could be a result of warming underneath your brain, extra cerebrospinal fluid underneath your brain, ear canal tunnels allowing your brain to escape, stronger alarmist winds piling up bs and exposing your brain to freezing and other factors….but it is still the truth.
It’s got nothing to with me or my character. Facts dude, facts. Get out of your bubble.
What facts did you post that has no source posted by you?
It goes both ways Avery since Steve posted sources for his charts he had spent the time making the blog post with.
How come you come here and make demands when you can’t even begin to follow your own fact rule?
This is suppossed to be a discussion about science but you all are only interested in personal attacks.
Avery Harden says:
October 19, 2013 at 7:26 pm
So, was this idiotic comment science, or another projection?
The trend is warming from a known cool period in the 70’s…
If this spike in sea ice 2013 is considered cherry picking, well certainly a baseline starting in 1979 is cherry picking as well. Fact is Sea Ice is way, way up just when the consensus said it would continue to decline… Indeed Volume is way,way up over last year as well… That simply cannot happen in a warming environment. Figure all these reasons and theories for it … Try to fit it into Global Warming theory all you like … When in truth this Sea Ice Growth is very Inconvenient….
Also, I love how the consensus brushes over a nearly 20 year “pause” in rising air temperatures … Now sets it’s focus on the Oceans and all that trapped heat… Well no, we can’t simply ignore 30 years worth of Alarmism about rising air temps… Calling it a “pause” does not explain how the consensus and all their models were wrong for 20 years with all their dire predictions!! We know even less about the Ocean…
Avery’s go to scientists definitely not complicated, especially by facts or science. “Warming bad. Climate change unnatural.”
ROFLMAO!
Show me once credible source that shows arctic temperatures have not risen a degree and half in recent times, or that Alaska has not had record warming of late. Dude, its not me, its just about everyone except you noisy few.
Temperatures have been declining in Alaska since 1980
http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/sites/default/files/StateWide_Change_1949-2012_F.png
Avery, show me one peer reviewed paper that refutes natural variability as the cause of recent, or any, global climate changes. Then explain to everyone here how a slight warming since the Little Ice Age has been harmful to the planet or humanity.
You are incapable of learning from your mistakes.
There is a long list of them at google. No point in me listing them, you will just call them liars and frauds.
Quit lying Avery.
Gator, The bread and butter of you guys is raking through the data of the mainstream scientist for inconsistencies when there are far more inconsistencies to be found on yourside of the ledger. One minute you say the arctic is cooling and the next you concede it is warming. Which is it.
At least we do not lie and fudge data. Ice melts, and water freezes, look it up.
Is this science, or just idiotic poo flinging?
Please show us one peer reviewed paper which supports your view that “one minute you say the arctic[sic] is cooling and the next you concede it is warming”. Just one honest, peer-reviewed paper that makes that argument, or shut up, you poo-flinging moron.
We’re saying its a “cycle” …. Warming up since a cold spell in the 70’s…. Which were preceded by a very hot period in the USA during the 1930’s, warmer than today and the whole 2000’s perhaps. Yet the consensus would have us all believe it’s been unusually hot between NY and LA for the past 10 years when clearly even the data says it’s not… The 30’s were hotter .. And more deadly… More 100 degree + days…
For every dire prediction the Consensus puts forth… Tornadoes, fire, Hurricanes, Hot Temps, floods, drought …. Steven has dug up where it already happened in the past at much lower CO2 levels!!
The crazy weather just doesn’t seem abnormal when put in the perspective of History… IE: What already happened!! So how can CO2 be driving abnormally high temperatures and abnormally crazy weather …. When today’s climate/weather is neither??
I look forward to your response….
The northwest passage is problematic for many reasons. If you are interested this article seems on topic: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/baffinland-ceo-says-no-to-shipping-ore-through-northwest-passage/article14915542/
How much surface area is in the Arctic circle as compared to the rest of the world?
How much warmth does the Arctic circle region contribute to the rest of the world?
Can you answer these two questions Avery?
Interesting comment’s from NSIDC.org.
Contrasting weather conditions were a significant factor in this year’s higher sea ice extent and lower Greenland Ice Sheet melt intensity, compared to last year. This summer saw air temperatures at the 925 hPa level that were 1 to 3 degrees Celsius (2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) lower than last summer. It was also a cool summer compared to recent years over much of the Arctic Ocean, and even cooler than the 1981 to 2010 average in some regions, particularly north of Greenland.
If anyone should know it is these guys. “The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), which represents over 80% of the world merchant fleet, has issued a new position paper on Arctic shipping. As the Arctic becomes more accessible, ICS has set out some key principles with regard to the future governance of Arctic waters.
Offshore support vessel activity is already significant, while destination shipping is anticipated to grow as the extraction of energy and raw materials is developed. Use of the Northern Sea Route is also a reality for a small but increasing number of ships in the summer months.
ICS therefore stresses the importance of Arctic nations respecting the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and relevant IMO Conventions and Codes such as SOLAS and MARPOL.
ICS Director of External Relations, Simon Bennett explained: “As the volume of Arctic shipping gradually increases, there is a growing awareness about the need for a high degree of care when ships navigate Arctic waters. However, the proper forum for addressing these concerns is the International Maritime Organization, which is currently developing a Polar Code that is expected to be mandatory. It is most important that Arctic nations avoid unilateral measures that might cut across IMO Conventions or the provisions of UNCLOS.”
ICS stresses that individual coastal states should not impose discriminatory treatment that might prejudice the rights of ships registered with non-Arctic nations under international maritime law, such as unilateral ship construction, design and equipment standards.
ICS also identifies some issues that require clarification as Arctic waters become more accessible. For example, ICS believes that the UNCLOS regime of ‘transit passage’ for straits used for international navigation takes precedence over the rights of coastal states to enact unilateral measures against international shipping.
“Until recently this issue seemed rather academic, as did the question of nations using straight baselines to determine their territorial sea. But as remote Arctic sea routes become accessible these issues are becoming more important.” said Mr Bennett.
Amongst the intended audience for the ICS paper are high level policy makers in environment and foreign ministries who may not be regularly engaged in shipping issues.
However, the paper also outlines ICS’s approach towards the development of the IMO Polar Code, which is expected to be finalised next year.
“The development of the Polar Code needs to be risk and performance-based,” said Mr Bennett. “For example, pending the future development of unified requirements for the construction and operation of ‘ice-class’ ships, the Code should not arbitrarily require conformity with any particular ‘ice-class’ standards to the exclusion of others that deliver comparable performance.”
The paper also sets out ICS’s position with respect to the development of infrastructure to support safety and environmental protection, the need for full market access and freedom of navigation, transparency with respect to national regulation and the need for reduced bureaucracy and the setting of appropriate fees for services.
“If frequent and reliable international shipping services are to be provided between Arctic ports and the rest of the world, or natural resources in the region are to be developed in a manner that reconciles the need for both environmental and economic sustainably, this will require the provision of maritime services that are competitive and cost efficient,” said Mr Bennett.
That is dated 17 December 2012, is not a scientific paper, and not exactly relevant to the chart above.
And BTW, trade is so scary! ROFLMAO!!!
But it is the trade organization of the shipping industry. What is your source?
4.5 billion years of geologic record. Climates change Chicken Little.
Another un sourced cut and paste job.
Here is the part you didn’t think on:
“Offshore support vessel activity is already significant, while destination shipping is anticipated to grow as the extraction of energy and raw materials is developed. Use of the Northern Sea Route is also a reality for a small but increasing number of ships in the summer months.”
SUMMER MONTHS is the time frame being discussed.
Not only that not a word about air and water temperature AND no word about the Arctic ice either.
That is the best you can come up with Avery?
These folks are trying to increase Commerce and extract Oil/Gas from the Arctic…. Putting money up there to make money…
So what does this have to do with Global Warming?? I don’t see where this paper is trying to be scientific or even addresses Climate… It’s about politics and treaties, etc.
Shipping in the arctic has continued to increase because of these ships called ice breakers. Russia continues to buy more because shipping through the arctic is valuable. It is also very important for security.
Nice job of copy and paste Avery and you just keep getting your climate information from a shipping company. I’ll get mine from climatologists.
He never did provide the link as I asked him for.
I also asked for other links in his comments and he never replied.
He is apparently afraid to back up his claims.
He cannot back his claims, just like all the other alarmists. He claims to have all the scientists on his side, while ignoring a list of 31,000 WORKING SCIENTISTS who have reviewed the ‘evidence’ and found it unconvincing. There is no converting of a zealot, and no reasoning with a fool.
Steve, you say I am close to spam. I am just responding to what people send me. How is that spam. Spam is unsolicited. I was solicited. Maybe my other side of the story responses are what is unsolicited.
so·lic·it
s??lisit/
verb
past tense: solicited;?past participle: solicited
1. ask for or try to obtain (something) from someone.
“he called a meeting to solicit their views”
synonyms: ask for, request, seek, apply for, put in for, call for, press for, beg, plead for, ask, petition, importune, implore, plead with, entreat, appeal to, lobby, beg, supplicate, call on, press; literary beseech, ask (someone) for something.
“historians and critics are solicited for opinions by the auction houses”
accost someone and offer one’s or someone else’s services as a prostitute.
“although prostitution was not itself an offense, soliciting was”
Who pulled your chain?
What other side story is that Avery?
The one where you NEVER attempted to counter Steve’s blog article in anyway with evidence backed by sources.
You are failing your feeble case here badly.
Steve, regarding your original point about Greenland’s low temperatures and recovery, I was just looking at the National Snow and Ice Data Center site. There is lots of detailed information there about Greenland this year that sure looks credible. It tells the oppossite of your story about cooling and ice recovery. All of the big science organizations from NASA and NOAA say the same thing. Can they all be liars and frauds?
NSIDC announced in the middle of the July storm that it was making all the ice disappear, when in fact it did the exact opposite. They also forecast a very low minimum this year.
I have no idea what their intentions are, but they have been wrong a lot recently.
Steve, don’t bother with him he doesn’t appear to know what he’s talking about.
Wow another babble comment where you didn’t form a coherent point with source support.
Not only that Steve has many times posted stuff from all those website you are trying hard to impress us.He even showed stuff that tells us about the multi year sea ice decline in the arctic and used the NSIDC-NCAR created animation to show the decline.
Really you are low grade warmist moron.
Avery Harden, it seems as though you think you win the argument if you can simply prove that the earth is on a warming trend. It doesn’t work that way. You have to prove that it is warming at an “unnatural rate” due to CO2. That’s getting to be a pretty difficult position to take, seeing as the earth hasn’t seen warming in 15 years.
At worst, I am just doing the same thing many of you all are doing, pointing out inconsistencies in your argument. Skeptics obsess over the finer points of the thousands documents used in the IPCC summary looking for Ts not crossed and I s not dotted trying to discredit the whole document. You guys are full of inconsistencies as well.
No, skeptics are simply asking alarmists to prove their claims. Period. It has nothing to do with ‘inconsistencies’, and everything to do with hard science, which demands proof before claims of certainty.
You obviously have no clue of what you speak. I ask you for definitive evidence, and you claim it is everywhere while producing nothing to substantiate your belly aching.
Grow up.
A 15 year “pause” is a bit more serious than not crossing a t ….
The Consensus has been predicting an apocalypse during all 15 years of this pause… During all 15 years where the temps didn’t go up… Yet they were telling us it was… We get bombarded with imagery of a scorched earth and NYC underwater… ” An Inconvenient Truth” was played in schools across the World… Scaring the crap out of them while indoctrinating kids at the same time… Captain Planet engaged our kids in FEAR and Propaganda as well… Yet all for what? Temperatures didn’t rise… No child alive today has experienced a warming climate!!
How do you respond to that??
Out of all the 32 comments here there is nothing about how the AMO has been in a warm phase.
puzzle piece to why the Arctic ice has declined since going into a warm phase.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg
I believe that falls under the heading ‘Natural Variability’. 😉
And gator, if you check that link above you will see other elements of natural variability. You will also see how man made greenhouse gasses are the straw breaking the camel’s natural variability back.
Prove it.
The camel is just fine. The earth’s temperature is remarkably stable. Try and keep your home or anything within 1 1/2 degrees over a week. People don’t want to believe that scientists would fudge data but they are no different than anybody when it comes to fame and fortune or they will lose their livelihood if the line isn’t towed. The human mind has amazing capabilities of justifying one’s actions so they don’t feel they are doing anything wrong, the whole “creating a better world even if AGW is not real meme. It left the science arena and entered the political arena a long time ago. Nobody cares if Antarctica goes from -75 to -72 as an example. Anybody willing to read climate history knows there’s nothing new happening. Weather, at 350ppm or below, was no different or much worse than when it was surpassed, so why spend billions to try and lower it? “It’s always about the money” explains most everything.
The PDO is currently in a cool phase. When the AMO goes cool along with it then things should get really interesting.
C02 is more of a reflector of the suns rays then most people think. In 2012 NASA slipped by telling the truth after a large CME hit earth and they said 95% of the CME’s power full rays were reflected back into space from C02 and NO.
Here is the NASA news link from 2012.
I would think the more C02 in the atmosphere would block even more rays into space. Kinda like gas filled double and triple window glass.
C02 has s feed back effect and works both ways in a way.
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/22mar_saber/
“Avery Harden says:
October 19, 2013 at 9:38 pm
gator, google little ice age and the first item to come up is a temperature chart going back well before. In context, the little ice age may have been littler than you presume.”
A real climate change denier.
Seems the sun was very quiet during last ice age.
http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/tsi/historical_tsi.html
AMO and TSI chart overlay, hmmmm
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/AMO_vs_TSI.jpg
pdo and amo chart 1979 to 2012
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/GLOBAL_UAH_vs_PDO_AMO.jpg
Sun main diver with arctic temps..
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/SOON_ARCTIC.jpg
Excellent posts, you denier. 😉
If there was ever a single piece of data that debunked the CAGW scam, this would be it. Especially when alarmists say the Polar regions are the canaries and supposed to heat up first and by massive amounts.
Antarctic alarmists say its not working!!
Most recent AMO chart..
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-amo
Pro chart
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/jisao-pdo
Steve can you overlay among chart over Arctic sea ice chart 1979 to present.
Exact match AMO rise and Arctic Sea ice fall
Thanks
The last time the PDO and the AMO were both negative was 1965-1975. The climate headlines during that time were the exact opposite of today.
Exactly but the sun was not in such a low sun spot cycle like it is today. If the next solar cycle is anything like #24 and others beyond there will be a mass extinction of world populations.
That is no joke.
I agree. And if you throw in a couple of major volcano eruptions on top of all that then you’ll have the “triple crown of cooling” as Bastardi calls it. I wonder what the alarmists will be saying then.
Avery writes:
“A degree and half rise in 100 years is not weather, but climate.”
Can you tell us what the average temperature for the region was 250,500 and 1,000 years ago?
Can you tell us what the main cause of this claimed warming is Avery?
Already Avery shows his feeble debate skills when he demands that others do the work to support HIS claims:
“gator, google little ice age and the first item to come up is a temperature chart going back well before. In context, the little ice age may have been littler than you presume. I know, they are all liars and frauds over there at goggle.”
Then he replies to gator with this:
“There is a long list of them at google. No point in me listing them, you will just call them liars and frauds.”
He answers gator again proving what a douchebag he is because he REFUSES to back up his initial claims with sources:
“Gator, The bread and butter of you guys is raking through the data of the mainstream scientist for inconsistencies when there are far more inconsistencies to be found on yourside of the ledger. One minute you say the arctic is cooling and the next you concede it is warming. Which is it.”
This is why he is close to spam since he is a warmist babbler with little to say that the rest of us here can work with.In fact he posted this many times since then,THREE and still no evidence to regale us with.
Here are the google links he posted:
Oh my what a long list that is Avery!
You are yet another warmist moron to land here and get quickly exposed as a bullshitter.
The warm was nice while it lasted:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9057151/carry-on-warming/
All those owners of ships in the NW Passage that got trapped by the ice this Sept. beg to differ.
Why all the fuss? If you chart temps in whole degrees (something we might actually feel) then it’s basically a straight line:
http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/image266.png
Hmmmm. 1979 typhoon Tip, 2013 Typhoon Haiyan. Any major storms in 1996?