Real Climate Science

Two years ago in June, Boulder experts predicted the demise of Penguins due to declining Antarctic Sea ice.

EMPEROR PENGUINS THREATENED BY ANTARCTIC SEA ICE LOSS

June 20, 2012
BOULDER—A decline in the population of emperor penguins appears likely this century as climate change reduces the extent of Antarctic sea ice, according to a detailed projection published this week.

The study, led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), with co-authors from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other organizations, focuses on a much-observed colony of emperor penguins in Terre Adélie, Antarctica. The authors conclude that the number of breeding pairs may fall by about 80 percent by 2100.

“The projected decreases in sea ice may fundamentally alter the Antarctic environment in ways that threaten this population of penguins,” says NCAR scientist Marika Holland, a co-author of the study.

Also co-authoring the study were Christophe Barbraud and Henri Weimerskirch of the Centre d’Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, in France, and Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the United States.

Emperor penguins threatened by Antarctic sea ice loss | UCAR – University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Four months later, Boulder scientists said they predicted the record Antarctic sea ice all along.

EXPERTS: GLOBAL WARMING MEANS MORE ANTARCTIC ICE
By SETH BORENSTEIN
— Oct. 10, 2012 5:48 PM EDT

Antarctic sea ice hit a record 7.51 million square miles in September.

“A warming world can have complex and sometimes surprising consequences,” researcher Ted Maksym said this week from an Australian research vessel surrounded by Antarctic sea ice. He is with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts.

Many experts agree. Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado adds: “It sounds counterintuitive, but the Antarctic is part of the warming as well.”

And on a third continent, David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey says that yes, what’s happening in Antarctica bears the fingerprints of man-made climate change.

Experts: Global warming means more Antarctic ice

EXPERTS: GLOBAL WARMING MEANS MORE ANTARCTIC ICE
By SETH BORENSTEIN
— Oct. 10, 2012 5:48 PM EDT

Climate change skeptics have seized on the Antarctic ice to argue that the globe isn’t warming and that scientists are ignoring the southern continent because it’s not convenient. But scientists say the skeptics are misinterpreting what’s happening and why.

Shifts in wind patterns and the giant ozone hole over the Antarctic this time of year — both related to human activity — are probably behind the increase in ice, experts say. This subtle growth in winter sea ice since scientists began measuring it in 1979 was initially surprising, they say, but makes sense the more it is studied.

“A warming world can have complex and sometimes surprising consequences,” researcher Ted Maksym said this week from an Australian research vessel surrounded by Antarctic sea ice. He is with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts.

Many experts agree. Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado adds: “It sounds counterintuitive, but the Antarctic is part of the warming as well.”

Experts: Global warming means more Antarctic ice

What a pile of crap. Hansen predicted peak sea ice loss in the Antarctic

web.archive.org/…. epa.gov/climatechange/effects/downloads/Challenge_chapter2.pdf

If ice increases, it is due to global warming. If ice decreases, it is due to global warming. There has never been a group of people more completely full of it than climate experts.

As bad as this year has been for Arctic alarmists, their pain is just beginning. Melt has been extremely slow in August, in fact area has not changed for about a week, and is now larger than 2006

The ice has been getting compacted close to the pole, where it is too cold to melt. (Compaction reduces extent, but has little effect on area.) The high pressure system which has been compacting the ice is breaking down, and in a week or so, the open water close to the pole in the Laptev Sea will begin to freeze, likely leading to an early minimum.

As I mentioned earlier, ice area is the highest in ten years, and may be higher than 1971.

Nobel Laureate Al Gore says there is a 75% chance the Arctic will be ice-free this summer.

June 11, 1986

Average global temperatures would rise by one-half a degree to one degree Fahrenheit from 1990 to 2000 if current trends are unchanged, according to Dr. Hansen’s findings. Dr. Hansen said the global temperature would rise by another 2 to 4 degrees in the following decade.

While the effect of small increases in global temperature is now unclear, Andrew Maguire, vice president of the World Resources Institute, a Washington research and policy group, said that the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is foreseen would cause a rise of 3 to 8 degrees in temperature by the 2030’s. He said this would devastate agriculture in the United States and elsewhere, and would cause a rise in sea level of some 4.5 feet as polar ice melted.

SWIFTER WARMING OF GLOBE FORESEEN – NYTimes.com

SIGNIFIGANT RISE IN SEA LEVEL NOW SEEMS CERTAIN
By ERIK ECKHOLM
Published: February 18, 1986

MANY scientists are so sure that the sea level will rise visibly in the coming decades that they are advising planners to adopt new strategies now. A predicted rise in sea level of one foot within the next 30 to 40 years will drive much of the Atlantic and Gulf shoreline inward by a hundred feet and some of it by more than a thousand feet

SIGNIFIGANT RISE IN SEA LEVEL NOW SEEMS CERTAIN – NYTimes.com

Is there no way to end this denial of the one true CO2 religion?

Being a progressive means just making stuff up, in order to scare other equally stupid people.

Report: California should prepare for 3-foot sea level rise this century | Peninsula | San Francisco | San Francisco Examiner

Sea level in the San Francisco Bay is lower now than 70 years ago.

Data and Station Information for ALAMEDA (NAVAL AIR STATION)

Satellites show sea level falling along the California coast since the start of records in 1992

Map of Sea Level Trends | CU Sea Level Research Group

There is absolutely no basis for the San Francisco Examiner claim. Progressives live in a fantasy world of endless lies.

h/t to Andy Oz

100 degree temperatures used to be fairly common in the US, but they rarely happen any more outside of the desert southwest.

August 17 Arctic sea ice area is the highest since 2004.

But it is worse than it seems. Arctic data is cleverly cut off at the 1979 peak, but the 1990 IPCC report showed that there was much less ice in 1974 than in 1979.

So I overlaid the current data on the 1990 IPCC graph, and it turns out that ice coverage now is similar to 1974.

Reports from 1974 also indicate that there was 12% increase from 1971 to 1974.

Another Ice Age?
Monday, Jun 24, 1974

Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data for the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of the ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since.

TIME Magazine Archive Article — Another Ice Age? — Jun. 24, 1974

So I drew another circle approximating 1971 conditions. It is possible that there is more ice coverage now than in 1971.

This is just a very rough comparison, as it is comparing extent vs. area. But it shows the cyclical nature of Arctic ice, as opposed to the mindless linear trends published by NSIDC.

Eighty years ago, about half of the US was in extreme drought. Now, less than 10%. The southwest is expecting a deluge of rain this week.