Real Climate Science

It may not be obvious to everyone yet, but this morning’s TOBS discovery is huge.

I need to run now, but here is a quick summary of things I can prove so far about the US temperature record.

• Until 1999 NASA said the US was on a long term cooling trend
• Until 1989 NOAA said there was no long term warming in the US
• Sometime after 2000, NOAA made a large downwards shift in the absolute baseline temperature. This is probably why Nick and Zeke keep insisting on the use of anomalies, as it hides the shift.
• Temperatures are being adjusted an average of about 1.5F relative to the 1930s
• The raw data does not support the validity of a TOBS adjustment
• NOAA is doing something in their conversion from daily data to monthly data to create a bias which selectively cools the past – which in turn creates the appearance that TOBS is valid.
• Since 1990, almost all warming is due to infilling of non-existent temperature data.

And to top it all off, the UHI adjustment is much too small. The US is on a long term cooling trend for over 90 years, and used to be hotter. NCDC US temperature graphs do not even remotely resemble the actual US climate, and actually reverse the trend.

I will write this up in more detail later.

Several people have asked me this. The most likely answer is that people in warmer climates preferred to take readings in the morning, and people in colder climates preferred to take readings in the afternoon.

Last week I showed some graphs like the ones below, which demonstrate that the TOBS (time of observation bias) adjustment is bogus. Stations which took their readings during the morning on July 15, 1936 are actually cooling slightly relative to the July 15, 1936 afternoon stations. This behavior is the opposite of what TOBS was created to correct.

So this morning I tried the same experiment on the raw monthly USHCN data using the identical set of stations as was used in the daily analysis. In this case, something very unexpected appeared. The morning stations are warming much faster than the afternoon stations, which is what TOBS theory predicts.

This discrepancy makes no sense, because I am using the identical set of stations for both the monthly and daily data. The monthly data is supposed to be the average of the daily data.

So the next obvious experiment was to compare the monthly data for the morning stations with the daily data for the morning stations. When I did this, something unbelievable appeared. They are massively cooling the past of their morning stations when they go from daily to monthly. They must be infilling the missing daily data with colder daily data. This spectacular data tampering is how they create the justification for TOBS.

But it gets even worse! When I looked at the afternoon stations – they are actually warming the past. This further aggravates their fake TOBS justification.

I am astonished. This TOBS scam is much worse than I originally realized. Here is the list of 1936 morning stations used in the analysis
Continue reading →

In 2011, Andrew Dessler of Texas A&M forecast that Texas would be hot and dry for the rest of the century, based on a single hot month.

ANDREW DESSLER , HOUSTON CHRONICLE | July 10, 2011

Get used to it. The weather of the 21st century will be very much like the hot and dry weather of 2011.

Texas is vulnerable to warming climate – Houston Chronicle

So how is that working out? Over the past ten months, almost all of Texas has been far below normal temperature.

WaterTDeptSRCC.png (688×531)

Over the past 15 years, NCDC temperatures are diverging from RSS satellite temperatures at 0.6C/century – which accounts for almost the entire claimed global warming trend.

2006 had the highest minimum Arctic sea ice extent of the last decade, and 2014 is tracking it quite closely, with very little change in ice extent over the past 10 days.

 COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

 Live Cam View 3 – Official Home of Falls Creek Alpine Resort

Trapped Mann-made heat has brought the coldest July temperatures ever recorded in Arkansas.

Public Information – NOAA’s National Weather Service

h/t to Andy DC

A Southern California couple who scaled back watering their lawn amid the state’s drought received a warning from the suburb where they live that they might be fined for creating an eyesore – despite emergency statewide orders to conserve.

Michael Korte and Laura Whitney, who live near Los Angeles in Glendora, said on Thursday they received a letter from the city warning they had 60 days to green up their partially brown lawn or pay a fine ranging from $100 to $500.

California couple conserving water amid drought could face fine for brown lawn – Yahoo News

h/t to Dave G

President Obama promised to make energy prices skyrocket, and he has succeeded. Gasoline prices have more than doubled since he took office, despite the fact that unemployment has averaged more than 8% during his presidency.

Despite skyrocketing prices, the White House releases very low inflation numbers every month.