Real Climate Science

I doubt it.

As mentioned earlier, I changed my USHCN methodology to match my GHCN methodology – averaging by month for all stations, and then averaging all months for the year. This fixed the discrepancy between my 2014 spike and Anthony’s.

Nick Stokes keeps talking about anomalies, which are necessary when trying to do an absolute comparison of partial years. I wasn’t attempting to do that – I was measuring temperature differences, so his point is irrelevant to what I am doing.

Here are the USHCN final and raw temperatures using the new method. It is almost identical to the old method. They are turning a 95 year cooling trend into a warming trend.

But it is worse than seems. The USHCN “raw monthly data” isn’t really raw. The graph below shows the discrepancy between GHCN monthly “raw” and actual GHCN HCN daily station data – which is truly raw. As you can see, USHCN “raw” data is already adjusted to create a warming trend, and then they do their own adjustments on top of that.

The next graph shows the total adjustments from GHCN HCN daily to USHCN final.

But it is worse than even that seems. NCDC adds additional warming on to the USHCN adjustments. Unfortunately their web site is dead, so I can’t generate that graph right now.

The Arctic lost 30% of its ice overnight, headed towards Al Gore’s promised 2014 ice-free Arctic

COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Obama can’t build a website, go bowling, balance a budget, tell the truth, or get along with other human beings – but he thinks he can control the weather 100 years from now.

We are getting very heavy snow here in Northern Colorado. I expect that in a few hours there will be tree branches down every where.

If you have ever used a min/max thermometer, you are aware of the time of observation bias problem. It is not a subtle problem.

Suppose you reset your thermometer at 3 pm, and the temperature is 60F. At 4 pm a cold front comes through and drops the temperature to -10F. The next day you bundle up in your Arctic expedition gear and go to read the maximum temperature. It reads 60F. You realize that the number is ridiculous, because it hasn’t been above 0F all day.

The solution is obvious, you reset the thermometer at night before you go to bed.  I figured out the solution to the TOBS problem when I was seven years old, and I am sure just about every other station owner did too. You would have to be a complete idiot to not figure it out.

That being said, the actual TOBS “adjustment” being done by USHCN software doesn’t even vaguely match their documentation. The whole thing is complete BS.

I tried a better approach to the USHCN code. Previously I was averaging all monthly temperatures from all stations in a given year together. The problem with this is that some months have more station data than others, and is made worse by the fact that the USHCN adjusted data had extra manufactured temperatures in May. This caused the warmer temperatures in May to get weighted more heavily in the adjusted data than in the raw data.

The new approach is to average the months individually across all stations, and then take the average of all monthly averages in that year. This eliminates the issues caused by a larger number of stations with May data in the USHCN adjusted data set, than in the raw data set.

The result is a much smaller spike in 2014, similar to what Anthony plotted. But it doesn’t change the fact that using my approach the adjustments go up rapidly after 1995, whereas Anthony’s tails off flat. That discrepancy is the $64,000 question.

Around 40 years ago, The Guardian wrote a story about Los Alamos – which said it was the location of the first atomic bomb test.

My mother wrote a letter to the editor :

We have lived in Los Alamos a long time, and don’t remember seeing any nuclear explosions. We probably would have noticed.

Anthony Watts made a post which alarmists see as critical of me. Normally, they bash Anthony and myself, but now they say that they have proof that I am both evil and stupid, and that I must be silenced. Differences of opinion and different approaches are simply not permitted in the world of orthodox religionists.

Twitter / SteveSGoddard: @VariabilityBlog @DumbSci …

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