Hansen forecast peak ice loss in the red circle below
www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/downloads/Challenge_chapter2.pdf
The EPA has (of course) deleted this document from their web site, but the URL above is where it was located until a few weeks ago.
discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch05.r002.txt
Every day in 2012 except for nine has been cooler than 2010, with the year running 0.34 cooler than 2010. Experts tell us that 2012 is the hottest year ever.
Drudge was saying yesterday that Issac would rival Katrina
Tropical Storm Isaac is on the verge of becoming a Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall, but forecasters say the biggest threat will be the rainfall and storm surge, not the wind.
Tropical Storm Isaac Nears With Rainfall the Biggest Concern – ABC News
Democrats win House, promise new direction
POSTED: 6:05 p.m. EST, November 8, 2006
(CNN) — Democrats promised Wednesday to lead the country in a new direction after winning control of the House for the first time in 12 years in midterm elections.
By early Wednesday, Democrats had picked up at least 29 seats; they needed 15 to capture a majority in the House. Two Democratic seats in Georgia that were targeted by Republicans remained too close to call.
Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-California, is now poised to become the first female speaker of the House.
Pelosi promised to lead the nation in a new direction “in partnership, not in partisanship.”
Summer is too short, temperatures are too low, and the ice is too thick north of 80N to all melt.
There isn’t any physical mechanism in our current climate to produce an ice-free Arctic.
The 2011 minimum extent was about 4% lower than the 2008 minimum, yet NSIDC shows that the percentage of MYI increased by more than 15% from 2008 to 2011.
Which year had more MYI? If you passed third grade and are not a climate alarmist (or lukewarmer) you should be able to figure it out.
According to JAXA, the Arctic melt season (date max minus date min) has gotten about 30 days shorter since 2005. If the melt season ends in the next eight days, 2012 will be the shortest on record.
www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
It is possible that this will happen, because almost all of the remaining ice is thick (1-5 metres) and temperatures in about four days are forecast to get very cold across almost the entire ice pack. More likely it will come in second shortest after 2010.
1/12° Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACFNS)
It is worth remembering back to 2008, when Mark Serreze forecast an ice-free pole – because the ice was so thin. The core of the ice pack has thickened considerably since then.
The dirty little secret about 2007 was that most of the loss of older ice occurred during the winter, not the summer. Persistent winds blew a lot of old ice out into the North Atlantic.
Since 2008, the old ice has been increasing. Last year there was an increase in two and three year old ice, so we should expect to see an increase in three and four year old ice this year.
Plausible estimates for the effect of soot on snow and ice albedos (1.5% in the Arctic and 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas) yield a climate forcing of 0.3 Wm2 in the Northern Hemisphere. The ‘‘ef?cacy’’ of this forcing is 2, i.e., for a given forcing it is twice as effective as CO2 in altering global surface air temperature.
CO2 is the most powerful force in the Universe, and soot is twice as powerful.
