She has survived for over 24 hours!
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2011…GERT WEAKENS AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC..MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH
Dr Brady said the divergence between the sea-level trends from models and sea-level trends from the tide gauge records was now so great “it is clear there is a serious problem with the models”.
“In a nutshell, this factual information means the high sea-level rises used as precautionary guidelines by the CSIRO in recent years are in essence ridiculous,” he said. During the 20th century, there was a measurable global average rise in mean sea level of about 17cm (plus or minus 5cm).
But scientific projections, led by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have suggested climate change will deliver a much greater global tide rise in mean sea level this century of 80-100cm.
Sea rise slow down raises questions
A recently published study on sea level rises in Australia and New Zealand has some questioning the effect of climate change on the oceans.
Phil Watson, a coastal researcher with the New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, analysed data from four tide gauges, located at Fremantle, Sydney, Newcastle and Auckland, collected as far back as 1897.
He notes in his study that various long-term factors such as changes in the Moon’s orbit, El Nino events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation affect sea levels on a periodic basis. To remove these effects, the data was converted into a 20-year moving average.
“The 20-year moving average water level time series through to 2000 clearly depict relative water level changes that are increasing over time, though at a reducing rate,” writes Watson in his study which appeared in the Journal of Coastal Research.
He says the most reliable gauges, located at Fremantle and Auckland, show an increase in sea level of approximately 120 millimetres between 1920 and 2000, or 1.5 millimetres per year. But this increase is reducing at a rate of between 0.02 and 0.04 millimetres per year.
“This decelerating trend was also evident in the detailed analysis of 25 US tide gauge records longer than 80 years in length,” he writes.
Never mind the record snow, computer models say they are doomed!
Long-term projections for New Zealand are for a decline in snowfall as temperatures continue to climb. Across the ditch in Australia, even though they are currently enjoying a great start to the ski season, they too will see a long-term decline in snowfall, snow depth, and a retreat of snowlines to higher elevations.
Many New Zealand ski areas are closed today because of too much cold and snow.
http://www.snowreports.co.nz/new-zealand/mt-lyford/
h/t to omnologos
Last year we were told that wolverines were doomed because there isn’t enough snow any more.
This story was not brought to you by Joe Romm
The polar blast brought snow to downtown Auckland for the first time in 72 years – and created the city’s coldest day on record.
h/t to Marc Morano And Tom Nelson
Sea levels likely to rise much faster than was predicted
By Steve connor, Science Editor in St LouisGlobal warming is causing the Greenland ice cap to disintegrate far faster than anyone predicted. A study of the region’s massive ice sheet warns that sea levels may – as a consequence – rise more dramatically than expected.
