This Guy Wanted To Be The GOP Candidate For President | Real Science
Chris Christie (a man who obviously has a huge amount of self respect) swooned over Obama and probably gave him four more years in the White House.
Obama did heal the planet, but he forgot to take care of New Jersey.
Ha ha , anybody remember Laurel and Hardy ? At least Laurel and Hardy were funny . The two clowns in the above picture are sickening to look at and think about .
Please. Chris Christie is not that influential.
Christie is a liberal in Left-wing territory, so it is a survival issue for him, who is working a cynical, values-free calculus. I gave up all hope for him when he failed to revoke the RGGI (Regional Green Gas Initiative). This broke the momentum for getting rid of this cruel tax in New Hampshire and the rest of the northeast, where it is especially hard on poor and fixed income people resulting in much higher electricity bills.
My election prognostications:
Take note of the tie in recent national polls as of Sunday 11/4/12: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
Obama isn’t at 50% except in the National Journal poll that severely oversamples Dems and gives Obama a victory +5. My assumption is that Romney will win a slight majority of the undecided vote. So, I’ll keep my prediction from several weeks ago and say a win for Romney 50.1-48.3%, 285-253. But no result will surprise me. I will also bet we will not know the results of the election by Wednesday morning (Ohio results will be unclear; and if Ohio has a winner, 2 other states will be unclear). Mail-in ballots with messy signatures will be the new hanging chad.
I’ll say the GOP will gain 2 Senate seats (and have 49), and lose 3-10 House seats (and have 231-238), let’s call it a loss of 7 (234). As in 2010, the GOP has a few nutcases for Senate candidates which will cost them the majority.
I do not anticipate any new polls to yield any useful info. Moreso than any prior election, we will learn more about the basic assumptions (i.e. turnout models) of various polls.
Yours is a probable scenario. I am hoping an easier win for Romney, notwithstanding election shenanigans by the workers’ unions and other ultra-left groups.
RR wins PA & Michigan, and MN is a nail biter that is not decided until the wee hours of the night, though going to O by less than 2%. So I question the pessimism of your prediction counts. I can feel the land starting to slide… … Plus, I think there are going to be a lot more surprise Repub senate seat pickups.
I hope you are correct, but the latest poll is bad news for Romney: http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/11-4-12%20Election%20Weekend%20Release.pdf
Obama +3 and the sample is only Dem +4 (which is probably close to what the turnout will be IMO).
First of all, John, national polls follow state polls. Most of the reason for this, I think, is that the action of a campaign is centered on the swing states people poll the most often, like OH. Changes in key states tend to emanate out slowly to the national level. So look more closely at the state polls. Plus, the Pew poll you link to is suspect. Dem +4 may seem like not a lot, but the much vaunted Pew poll released on Oct 8th that had Romney leading by 4 had a Republican +4 sample. This was right after debate #1 and conservatives were making a big deal that this Pew poll was the newest harbinger, but I pointed to the sample skew, and said that Pew will probably change the sample skew as part an “Obama resurgence” meme. Sure enough, the Pew sample is now skewed Dem again! Yes, there has been a little movement toward O with the advent of Sandy, but I think that has been reversing this weekend, especially with more O gaffes like the “vote for revenge” remark. Finally, of course, give RR the edge on voter enthusiasm & turnout, on undecided voters breaking toward Romney, and, on a hard to estimate Bradley Effect. So, what looks close now is not going to be so close come Tuesday night about 10pm eastern.
Also, I personally had problems getting your link to work (message comes up saying “the file is damaged” or something), but the poll you cite seems to be the headline at the Pew site: http://www.people-press.org/
Hillary Clinton’s former Senate state director, Gigi Georges: “For most of my life, I’ve been an active Democrat. I am proud to have worked for President Bill Clinton and then-Senator Hillary Clinton, and, during that time, I saw firsthand what can be accomplished by strong, bipartisan leadership. I know what it means to work across the aisle on issues that are important to the American people. And that’s why I am supporting Mitt Romney.
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2012/11/04/former_hillary_aide_endorses_romney
Clearly, the Governor has been in violation of the Mayor’s various nanny-state supersize guidelines.
Always with the negative waves, Moriarty, always with the negative waves….
Christie will be running for reelection in a blue state against a very formidable opponent in Cory Booker. This photo op is battle space prep. Christie and Romney really like each other and Christie was probably Romney’s first choice for VP. Christie is no dummy and he can probably see a 16 year run of Romney, Romney, Ryan, Ryan pretty much precluding someone like him from consideration for president.
Dick Morris says that the bounce Obama got from palling around with Christie has come and gone thanks to Obama’s remark that “voting is the best revenge” and the fact that Obama hasn’t been back to NY/NJ, having gone back to campaigning while the Government relief plan is rapidly becoming a cluster-f[]ck. I hope he is right!
Speaking off the cuff: The pollsters are essentially lying, just as the rest of the mainstream media are doing, on a continuing drumbeat basis (you don’t think they have any true basis for their biased modelling, even after it was revealed, and spelled out by people like Dick Morris, to everyone who cared to know, do you?). My crystal ball says, just reverse what they are now saying and you will have a fair(er) idea of the true situation. The media need to be scourged, and a Romney win will do that — if they are even capable of feeling the lash of reality now, and accepting it for what it is. Spiritually, I don’t believe Romney is to be denied the Presidency; he represents a healthy dose of medicine to the obviously sick-in-the-head country. Until the people start looking dispassionately at reality, rather than trying to will their petty ideas of perfection into existence, reality will conspire to deliver one upsetting of the applecart after another — driving all towards either a third World War or to real enlightened respect and cooperation focused upon the reality on the ground. The times are unstable, and mankind is careering, as it used to be called, between “a rock and a hard place” (that would be Scylla and Charybdis, for the classical-minded).
I have been a Democrat forever, but I am voting for Romney because his energy policies are much better for the nation. You can look at anything I say with a jaundiced eye. But one thing I don’t like is the Republicans refusing to compromise or work at all with Obama, then sending Romney out to say that he can work with the other side. Something about that rankles me. Also ensure that the other side won’t work with him. Remember the deal between Boehner and Obama that they worked so hard to forge? It isn’t like Obama didn’t try.