On July 6, I made this forecast
On July 25, I made this forecast
So how did my forecasts turn out? Everything I forecast happened exactly as I predicted.
COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
I also have been forecasting for the past three years that the amount of multi-year ice in the Arctic will increase, during a time when Arctic experts were predicting an ice-free Arctic
Why I Expect MYI To Increase Over Last September | Real Science
The difference between my approach and that of Arctic experts, is that I use the scientific method. They rely on superstition about a harmless trace gas. Real Science always beats superstition.
Thanks for the heads up Steve/Tony. I see you’ve moved the goalposts yet again!
On July 27th I stated that “CT Area is still falling fast, and will post another decline of around 150 thousand square kilometers when they eventually get around to updating it.”
It actually came in at -157 k:
https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/statuses/493484244992544768
Q.E.D. ?
Jim, thank you demonstrating once again that you and your ilk are complete morons.
My pleasure Steve/Tony.
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/07/shock-news-breathtakingly-ignorant-deranged-blogger-batting-1000-this-summer/
You are not only an idiot, but you are breathtakingly dishonest. Essential credentials for any climate alarmist. The Arctic is doing exactly what I predicted. If you feel the need to twist facts, it is an indication of your utter lack of character.
Ah, “Snow White” is still trolling for traffic…
I consider it quite pathetic that you have to attempt to steer traffic away from more successful sites in order to get <any readership.
Have you ever considered honest, accurate content? Given the state of the media these days there is an immense demand for truthful information.
(Note that I boycott sites that “troll for traffic”. Others may do as they wish however)
I think what Jim Hunt is taking credit for is that every year the ice melts in summer, and Jim Hunt predicted that the ice would also melt this summer, and by God, it did. I’d say that would rank him as one of the top intellectual of his collective. 😉
Ah, you had already beat me to the punchline. 🙂
You could have predicted that the Sun will set tonight. That would have been stunning compared to your prediction above.
The pattern is not unprecedented. I noted a similar pattern in 2 of the last 4 years. Guess Jim just does not like History.
Jim, You know damn well tha 150jk at this time of the season is not a lot. We are at peak seasonal melt.
There is a saying. Why open your mouth and prove what everyone already knows that you are a not so honest idiot.
I was forecasting extent, not area. Jim is both dishonest and clueless – trying to change the subject.
I am neither dishonest or clueless. Do you recall what you said not so very long ago about “Science works through research and debate – not censorship, propaganda, faith, or intimidation.”?
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/who-is-steven-goddard/
Thanks for your comment over at The Great White Con. Perhaps we might continue “the debate” in a more conducive atmosphere over there?
Failing that it is surely self evident that you were “forecasting extent” whereas I was “predicting area”, which is one of my many points!
Ice extent is doing exactly what I predicted extent would do. You are conflating extent and area, and being incredibly smug and nasty in the process. Typical clueless progressive.
Gee, Jim I agree with you wholeheartedly on your point: ““Science works through research and debate…”. It’s not the consensus then, eh? Wouldn’t the world be a great place if others of your ilk would behave according to this principle. Unfortunately world is not that great…
I am well aware that the sea ice in the Arctic is in the midst of the 2014 summer “melting season”.
Please refrain from further gratuitous “intimidation”.
TIA
Please refrain from commenting on things you understand nothing about.
I hope that request applies to ALL those who are warmists…
I am not “conflating extent and area”. Please refrain from claiming to be able to read my mind.
Don’t censor him Steven! Then he would have nothing to say.
What exactly is it that is confusing you then?
Nothing is confusing me, unless you count all the words that I never said (or typed) that everyone here keeps putting in my mouth.
Everyone? really? What words have I put into your mouth? Please tell us oh mighty Karnac.
Be a big boy, and just admit the obvious fact that I was spot on with my forecasts.
You go first Tony. After all I am a blogger. Everyone here characterises me as “breathtakingly ignorant and deranged”. My prediction was numeric, in the opposite direction to yours, and what’s more extremely accurate.
I’m more used to cricketing terminology. Is it possible to “bat 1,001” in what I presume is baseball?
Again with the everyone! Please show me where I have done so.
But wait! Maybe you are just proclaiming your clairvoyance once again. After chastising Steven NOT to. Wow! Physician heal thyself! I characterize you as a hypocrite.
If this winter is even colder than the last one I suspect any debates about ice in the Arctic will be beyond silly since we may be entering another Little Ice Age cycle.
Re: Shazaam says: July 30, 2014 at 1:53 pm
I am not “trolling for traffic”, and evidently you have no idea what you are missing!
Your actions say otherwise. Your pattern hasn’t changed from last year.
Thus, I choose to boycott your site.
As I said, others may do as they wish.
It looks like Caleb is “trolling for traffic” (July 30, 2014 at 3:54 pm)? In what way are his actions any different to mine?
He’s got an IQ above 36?
It’s a subtle difference. Perhaps it may be a bit to subtle for you to discern. However I shall make an earnest effort to describe that difference for your education if for no other reason.
Caleb apparently makes an effort to be informative and somewhat concise. He expresses his opinions and makes no demands. The invitation is low-key and presented in a polite take it or leave it fashion.
Now, in contrast, we have your recent efforts and the pattern of “Snow White” last year. If I had to come up with a name for your pattern I would dub your efforts as the “Seagull method of trolling for traffic”. Essentially you fly in, whilst squawking loudly (well, actually nitpicking incessantly over trivialities, yet I ask that you allow me some poetic license here) and then proceed to crap all over the place and plant your flag (link to your site) and then disappear for a time. At some irregular interval you repeat the process.
Thus, you are, in my humble opinion, trolling for traffic….
If I can be of any assistance in clarifying my explanation, I am willing to try. Yet I fear this may be as good as it gets.
Not sure, Shazaam, if you got your license approved but I was chuckling for a while.
Well said, Shazaam.
Shazaam!
Wah! Mommy he is doing it too! Wah!
Alarmists are such juveniles.
You are and we do.
This debate is more about saving a face than a few miles of ice. Basic fact is, there will not be Northwest Passage this year! Gaia just does not cooperate with computer models.
I think it was a very good forecast. Is it so hard to give credit where credit is due?
A very interesting situation is foreseen by Canadian “JEM” model, with a storm sitting atop the Pole for much of next week. As that situation sets up ice could get shifted about, and lead to ups and downs in the “extent” graphs. I don’t dare a forecast, myself.
The temperature has dipped to minus four at the O-bouy 10 camera. Heck of a way to run a thaw, if you ask me. That camera is fairly far south, at latitude 77 north of Alaska. Very nice picture of midnight sun from that shivering camera at the bottom of my blog at http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2014/07/27/arctic-sea-ice-melt-the-death-spirals-debunking/
Thanks for the comment and pointer to your website. Yours is one I will visit.
Hey Gail! Haven’t seen much of you lately… Hope all is well. 🙂
re: Shazaam says: July 30, 2014 at 10:29 pm
Here’s a somewhat long winded explanation of why my alter ego and I periodically “disappear for a time”:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/04/real-science-censorship-episode-2/
Please feel free to take it or leave it. If I can be of any assistance in clarifying my explanation, I am willing to try.
Jim, okay, if you are not really a worthless troll, feel free to offer up your great science as to why the planet is about to explode, unless we pay more taxes.
We are waiting….
You will have a long wait geran. As it says at the top of our web site, my alter ego and I are involved in “putting the Arctic sea ice record straight”.
As you have previously pointed out that requires looking closely at the data from the Arctic, not the latest policy announcements from the powers that be (in my case) in Westminster.
So, you offer no science, just your “heroic mission” of “putting the Arctic sea ice record straight”. Hilarious.
If you’re interested in the science of Arctic sea ice I posted a link to an academic paper on the subject not so very long ago. Then for some reason Steve/Tony moved the goalposts:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/27/record-cold-arctic-summer-ends-several-weeks-early/#comment-396509
You should know. You were there too.
Schizophrenic much?
If you are interested in Arctic science, you will start paying attention to the fact that the Arctic is not doing what what the experts predicted.
First you indicate you will not be offering up any science, because you are only on your personal “crusade”. Then, you offer up some “science” that indicates salinity in sea ice increase as temperature drops!
You really are hilarious. Please keep it up.
Now that is exactly what I referred to as your pattern of a “seagull squawking” response.
Your fastened your beak onto a small trivial bit of my post above and now you will proceed to work that trivial little part of the post for all it’s worth.
I really could care less why you appear or don’t appear at odd and irregular intervals. My haunting Toto’s site is also somewhat irregular with the odd long break hear and there. That was not in any way a key part of my attempt to explain the differences…
I’m afraid my poor attempt at an explanation of the oh-so-subtle differences between your post patterns and those of another specific poster has failed to penetrate. I do apologize, sometimes polite explanations fail ever-so-miserably.
More trolling for hits on your website.
If you have no other source for it, then it is not worth reading.
Whoops! On rereading this thread in the cold light of dawn (UTC) I discover I need to issue a correction.
On July 30, 2014 at 2:27 pm I stated that “My prediction was numeric, in the opposite direction to yours”, referring to events on July 27th. I now see that Tony went (somewhat hesitantly!) short Arctic sea ice extent on July 25th.
As you can no doubt see from my thumbnail I am what Caleb might refer to as something of “a fossil” and my vision is no longer what it once was. On my first scan of the article above I read “July 28th” instead of “July 25th”. However I feel I should point out that in general I keep track of Tony’s musings over on Twitter, where he had this to say on July 28/29th:
https://twitter.com/SteveSGoddard/statuses/493898135643881472
Arctic sea ice extent was not “highest in a decade” then, which my ageing brain was and is all too well aware of.
Ah yes, the seagull response to misreading a time stamp.
I suppose you may attempt to check your assumptions a bit more often in the future.
In the Trolljitsu scale, you are barely grey-belt.
Re: philjourdan says: July 31, 2014 at 1:13 pm
What’s the CT area reading at the moment Phil? I’ll consult my crystal ball if you ask nicely!
It’s not much fun around here Phil. Tony doesn’t want to play “spot the difference” with me, and you don’t fancy a spot of Arctic fortune telling?
CT area is showing 5,188,184 at the moment. My crystal ball is a trifle misty at the moment, but I reckon that the area number will turn on the proverbial dime and there’ll be a decline of around 180 k over the next two days. Unless I’ve misread things once again of course!
You are welcome to fortune tell all you want. I saw Steven’s forecast, and your counter forecast. Time will tell which one of you is correct. For now, Steven has the upper hand as his was published, and yours was not (or hidden way on some obscure blog that no one reads). In another 6 weeks we will know who got it right.
Stop with the pity party. Grow up.
Steve/Tony has admonished me elsewhere, so at the risk of repeating myself here’s an update on my most recent forecast.
Earlier today CT Area came in at 44,288 square kilometers below yesterday. The “turn on the proverbial dime” has come to pass, and there is only another 135,712 to go!
Um, Snowy, want to move the goal posts again? If you want to, we can discuss the acreage of corn in the grand Bahamas?
Did you see the quoted part? Here, let me help you by repeating it:
And that has to do with CT how? Seems that is more like a whine. Wah! Everyone is picking on me! Wah! Nobody is being fair! Wah! I want my mommy.
If you point to a specific comment, at least have the decency to discuss the contents of the comment! Wah!
Thanks for bringing that to my attention again Phil. It’s a reference to the title of this post. Scroll to the top and no doubt you’ll see it. In a revolutionary thought experiment I’m putting myself in Steve/Tony’s shoes. Geddit?
Of course that has nothing to with CT per se.
In case you have not noticed, you are on permanent ignore – until you learn to read
The goalpost moved long ago Phil. Hadn’t you noticed. Please do come and join in all the fun and games over at:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/08/04/arctic-sea-ice-extent-remains-highest-in-a-decade
Purposefully dense or just plain stupid, it is hard for an outside observer to keep up with this game of Whack-a-mole; “Jim Hunt” Edition …
.
I get tired of whack-a-mole, so I just use a steam roller. Gets them every time.