TOBS – Even Worse Than It Seems

The graph below is another TOBS killer. It shows the difference in summer temperature between US HCN stations which took morning readings on July 15, 1936 and those which took afternoon readings on that date. The trend is down, indicating that the TOBS upwards adjustments are backwards.

If TOBS were correct, the 1936 afternoon stations would be getting cooler over time relative to the morning stations, but we see the exact opposite – the 1936 morning stations are getting cooler relative to the 1936 afternoon stations.

ScreenHunter_1038 Jul. 16 09.25

About Tony Heller

Just having fun
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6 Responses to TOBS – Even Worse Than It Seems

  1. catweazle666 says:

    Where are the “Usual Suspects” to indignantly wave their little arms and impotently stamp their tiny feet and patronise us with statements like “it won’t do any good but …”?

    Keep it up Steve.

    And watch your six.

  2. But… this would mean… the earth is getting… cooler?? WHAAAAT??

  3. Please Steve, a little more detail.

    How many station were morning? How many afternoon? It changes by date as the site policies change.
    What is the mean standard error of the differences over time?

    It is not clear if you are subtracting
    a) USHCN_Raw(morning) – USHCN_Raw(afternoon) , or
    b) USHCN_TOBSAdj(morning) – USHCN_TOBS(afternoon)

    In the year 2000, all stations should be reporting as morning TOBS. Yes?
    So, In the year 2000, the “Morning” – “Afternoon” value is really
    “Morning” – “were Afternoon and now Morning”.
    A 0.7 deg C difference between these two is either a natural uncertainty between the two classis (if (a) Raw) or ?what?… misapplied TOBS?

    It is an interesting observation, but I don’t know I’d call it a TOBS killer, yet. It might be far more a measure of the uncertainty that exists in the system that I think is being systematically ignored.

  4. Why did you pick July 15, 1936?
    Ok, July 15 as an arbitrary date that is our current date. Was that the reason?
    But why 1936? Not 1934 (80 years)? or 1914?, 1954? 1964?

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