At the peak of the melt season, there is almost nothing happening in the Arctic. Red shows ice loss since July 11, and green shows ice gain. The melt season will start to wind down in the next three weeks, as the sun gets low in the Arctic sky.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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Awesome news. If the arctic sea ice extent doesn’t “play ball” then alarmists will have to find a new number that is still going down (or up) to be alarmed about. Unfortunately, they will.
The sun now sets at latitudes on ~68 or less. There are short nights now for the southern parts of the Archipelago. The sun skirts along the horizon at higher latitudes, providing little warmth. We are ~4 weeks past the days of maximum insolation and the rate of change will begin to pickup now. We are clearly past the peak melt rate season.
I was just looking at NOAA’s sea ice forecast on Anthony Watts Sea Ice Page, The forecast starts in August with about 6.9 million square kilometers of sea ice. Further up the page the actual measurement now is 5.9 million square kilometers. WTF is this so they can say that sea Ice was 25% below expectations or something??
Snorkeling the passage should be a breeze 😉
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/snorkel-relay-to-navigate-northwest-passage
http://vimeo.com/95424264
That’s (erm trying to be polite) [amazing]. Much more [amazing] than the rowers of 2 years back. I’ll certainly be watching this expedition with interest. Who will be carrying the waterproof bear rifle(s)? Have they devised a way of sleeping in the middle of the sea? Or will they make the long sea-crossing legs ‘real fast’ without sleeping?
“..asking me if I would be part of a 10 women team to snorkel across the Northwest Passage”.
Bloody sexists.
I guess it’s not happening since they only made $2,700 of their $18,000 target.
It was a pathetic idea in the first place. The vimeo video just makes me laugh.
If you want to go on a snorkelling vacation in the NW Passage there is always the option of paying for it yourself.
They have an excellent opportunity to be Polar Bear or Orca turd.
The models basically have the high Arctic locked in a colder than normal pattern with no sign of breaking it anytime soon.
Also those same progs bring down yet another polar vortex for much of the US again in late July. So after a brief warm spell this week, it is back to record cold by next weekend. If these progs are correct, many places in the US will have their coldest July on record.
Every as every idiot knows, cold is caused by warmth and warmth is caused by cold. It is as plain as the nose on your face and totally based on peer reviewed toilet paper. It is all settled science, like the earth being flat.
Barking!
2016 NW Passage cruises are taking bookings. I wonder if Chris Turney is organising it?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/cruiselog/2014/07/19/crystal-plans-first-northwest-passage-expedition-cruise/12841171/
How can I short it?
DMI 15% showing Arctic ice above 2013 for the first time since January
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png
DMI 30% also shows it
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png
and even NORSEX is showing it (by a tiny amount) for the first time since March,
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png
The uptick in the extent graphs are interesting. They may be due to the satellite mistaking melt-water pools as open water, and then the melt-water refreezing and being dusted by snow. (This happened north of Alaska last midweek.) Also the ice is packed tightly, which is shown by the “area” being a high 80% of “extent.” When winds blow this tightly packed ice into an ice-free area (such as, possibly, the Laptev Sea this coming week,) the ice spreads out, IE the “area” stays the same but the “extent” can go up. This will cause great howling and gnashing of teeth among Alarmists.
http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2014/07/16/arctic-sea-ice-melt-flat-lining-death-spiral/
Thanks for pointing out the uptick in the NORSEX. I hadn’t seen that.
Thanks for the explanation Caleb, it makes perfect sense.
I think NORSEX is important because it reflects a few days trend, but I don’t know how many.
Another point that seems important is that the average temperatures in the NP are still below the expected average of the green line in DMI’s graph,
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
very similarly to what happened in 2013.
Avoid Caleb’s http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/ site at all costs. It is exceptionally fascinating, detailed, and superbly written. It will eat your life.
I once wrote a limer-ode for him, something like:
A meteorologist in balmy New Hampshire
Tracked Arctic gyres with something like rapture;
When one smashed down from the North,
He ran back and forth,
Crying, “That was a good’un, fer damshure!”
Lets post it here –
From –
Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability Igor V. Polyakov International Arctic ResearchCenter, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Mark A. Johnson Institute of Marine Science,University of Alaska Fairbanks
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 27, NO. 24, PAGES 4097-4100, DECEMBER 15, 2000
Their Conclusions
The recent retreat of arctic ice requires understanding of whether the ice reduction is a persistent signature of global warming due to anthropogenic impact on climate or it is a minimum of a low-frequency natural climate oscillation.
Numerical models Earth climate system of [Vinnikov et al., 1999]and direct observations [Rothrock al., 1999] show substantial ice decline in the recent decades. Vinnikov et al., suggested that the observed decrease of arctic ice extent is related to anthropogenic global warming. However, Vinje [2000]using observations over the past 135 years showed that the recent decrease in ice extent in the Nordic Seas is within the range of natural variability since the 18th century. A combination of century- and half-a-century-long data records and model integrations leads us to conclude that the natural low-frequency oscillation (LFO) exists and is an important contributor the recent anomalous to environmental conditions in the Arctic. This mode of oscillation is related to fluctuations in the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic [Delworth Mann,2000]. Comparison of the century-long NAO index time series and half a century time series the polar region of SAT,SLP differences, wind vorticity and index shows existence the the of LFO mode in the latter time series. There is evidencethat the LFO has a strong impact on ice and ocean variability. Our results suggest the decadal and multidecadal that AO LFO drive large amplitude natural variability the Arctic in making detection possible of long-term trends induced by greenhouse warming gas most difficult.
(my bold)
Soooo, the extent is UP, huh?
I can just hear Al Gore now, “Everything that is UP should be DOWN!”
How inconvenient….