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Hurricane Danny proceeded Ericka along the same basic track and when that happens the proceeding storm generally takes a lot of potential development away from the one following.
Danny gave the press an orgasm of hype even though anyone watching, even the National Hurricane Center, was very confident that it would be torn apart by dry air and sheer before it reached Hispaniola.
Now Erika comes along and the press has the crotch of their panties all wet again. You would think that Miami was in the sights of a CAT V storm they way their going on. But what are the daily callers supposed to do? I mean we have been in a low point for Atlantic Hurricane incidence that no one alive today has ever experienced! So any storm is a big storm for them, even if it just causes a rain event with 50 mph winds over a Caribbean island or two.
Miami desperately needs rain.
A torn apart system that slows down and delivers a ton of rain is just what a few areas need in South Florida.
Other places nearby have seen flooding this Summer. Rains have been spottier than usual, with certain locations getting way to much, twenty miles away not enough.
Settled Science?
How different is Climate Science’ from ‘Psychology Science’
An international team of experts repeated 100 experiments published in top psychology journals and found that they could reproduce only 36% of original findings.
The study, which saw 270 scientists repeat experiments on five continents, was launched by psychologists in the US in response to rising concerns over the reliability of psychology research.
The first imperative: Science that isn’t transparent isn’t science
“There is no doubt that I would have loved for the effects to be more reproducible,” said Brian Nosek, a professor of psychology who led the study at the University of Virgina. “I am disappointed, in the sense that I think we can do better.”
“The key caution that an average reader should take away is any one study is not going to be the last word,” he added. “Science is a process of uncertainty reduction, and no one study is almost ever a definitive result on its own.”
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/aug/27/study-delivers-bleak-verdict-on-validity-of-psychology-experiment-results
Erika, barely a tropical storm, now is forecast to pass right over the center of Hispaniola. That is the one island that can flat out destroy a tropical system. I think the odds are less than 50/50 that it will emerge from that encounter intact. As of now, it appears to be a very minimal threat to Florida.
Hispaniola is to Atlantic Hurricanes what Taiwan is to Pacific Cyclones. Those jungle covered mountains really put a damper on circulation.
Oops, more properly Typhoons not Cyclones.
Phoon is Chinese for wind and Ty Phoon means Taiwan wind.
Florida should follow NY’s lead last Winter (for a 2″ snow storm) and declare martial law immediately.
Ha! I was in eastern, MA for that storm last winter. It was bad where it hit but the NWS and I might add the boys at Weatherbell, were just a little bit off on the track. I was rather glad about that.
First they wanted to send me right into the forecast track into south central CT for a pickup. After I called them and then they called the shipper and found out they had already sent their people home and told them not to come to work the next day, they sent me west to Albany, NY for a pickup the next morning. As I was leaving MA on I-90 the signs were flashing that the MA Turnpike would be closed by 11 PM.
When I backed into the dock for that pickup in Albany first thing in the next morning there was virtually no snow on the ground. By the time I left 4 hours and a lot of cussing later, there was 8″ on the ground and it was still coming down. I hit I-90 W and didn’t stop until I got to the Buffalo area for fuel and then took off and didn’t stop until I was in Eastern, OH to take a 10 hour break.
NY State and NYC made it illegal to be driving or even on sidewalks in the City…it snowed two inches.
I suggest you look at the latest advisory on Erika compared to the drudge headline.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/
FL will hardly be impacted by the storm JUST 33 HOURS LATER.
Rick Scott issued a state of emergency though.
A few questions: What is the value of a forecast like that? Was it sponsored by Home Depot? What does it mean for climate predictability?
Looks like the surfers might be catching some good waves along the Panhandle.
You’re lucky. The NY Thruway doesn’t usually plow until it stops snowing. They are the worst.
The further west I went the better conditions got and by the time I fueled at the Flying J at Penbroke, NY a little east of Buffalo, road conditions were just fine. But I wasn’t stopping until I was positive I was out of range so that I would wake up from my break without any heavy white stuff on the ground.
Actually in my experience the worst for snow clearing along I-90 in the east is that short section that runs through PA. I have seen some pretty bad pile ups in the vicinity of Erie, PA on that road.
Settled science? In the early 70’s I worked with Dr. Weber looking for Albert Einstein’s Gravity waves. We were unable to prove Prof. Einstein’s hypothesis of gravity waves. Not to worry. We were able to synthesize a method for long base line interferometer analysis. Now used for SETI. Even so pre-imminent a scientist as Prof. Einstein can be questioned and of course we now know that on the quantum level God does play dice with the Universe.