Arctic Ice Dangerously Close To Normal

As I predicted at the beginning of the month, Arctic melt has been very slow this month and both volume and extent of Arctic sea ice are close to “normal.”

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180521.png (1337×1113)

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

There has been 1.7% ice extent loss over the past week.

May 14       May 21

Meanwhile, the press is full of stories how the Arctic is melting at a record rate.

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16 Responses to Arctic Ice Dangerously Close To Normal

  1. Steven Fraser says:

    Its not on the chart, but 2008 is now lower than 2018. 2018 is now #9.

  2. Griff says:

    The rate of melt is about the same as in the last 7 years as shown here:

    It is not slower in any way -and the extent is at second lowest in the satellite record, way below the record low years of 2007 and 2012 at this point.

    The ice is thinner and younger than in the past.

    Really, given ideal melt conditions this is a candidate for a new record low – it is only a matter of time until we beat 2012

    • TimA says:

      You’ve gotten to be quite tedious. Anyone trolling a website like you can only be one of two things…. you’re likely a paid shill for some government agency, or you’re the drollest of boors who’s alienated all your friends and family and you’re exercising some neurotic compulsion for attention, negative or otherwise.
      Not a pleasant choice is it?….ummmm….congratulations?

    • Rah says:

      Who’s “we”?

    • Steven Fraser says:

      DMI ice volume decline this year for the last seven days has been 328 km³.
      Every other year for those seven days, except for 2004, has greater decline in DMI ice volume.

      This year’s Rate is only 66 1/2% of the average decline for the 7 days in the DMI volume data.

      Tony’s commentary about icemelt rates Is spot on, and your comment about “ideal melt conditions” does not look to be the case. Melting is unusually slow this year. We will, though, watch and wait to see how it all turns out.

      By the way, 2012 melt rate was going twice as fast at this time as 2018 is.

    • MrZ says:

      It does not match with DMI. They show a melting stop in April well into May.
      Here is 2018 vs 2012 as animated GIF (was too large to upload here)

    • AndyG55 says:

      “the extent is at second lowest in the satellite record,”

      SO WHAT!

      Its still in the 10% of the last 10,000 years.


      Do you comprehend, griff !!!

      Or are you still totally wrapped up in your climate change DENIAL.

    • AndyG55 says:

      “The ice is thinner and younger than in the past. ”

      Yes, thinner than during the anomalously cold LIA and 1970s

      But MUCH thicker and of far greater extent than for 9000+ of the last 10,0000 years.

      DMI volume for this day is now 9th out of 16, above all the last decade except 2014

      Next few days it will become 8th then 7th as it melts slower and slower now that the peripheral sea ice is all but gone.

  3. Mddwave says:

    As with cycles, sometime the yearly line will be above the average.

  4. Steven Fraser says:

    Update for May 23, 2018 is no number eight. Since yesterday 2014 declined much more than this year did. 2018 at the lowest decline in DMI for yesterday of any year, Even lower than it’s average for the last week.

    Interesting how The ice volume is not declining at the usual rates. Stay tuned!

  5. Alley says:

    Dangerously close to new record. Notice that all agencies are reporting the past decade as well below average. How could this mean that ice is rebounding?

    • AndyG55 says:

      DMI Ice volume for 2018 has just climbed into 8th position, above all years back a decade except 2009 (next in line to be overtaken) and 2010.

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