End Of Summer Arctic Sea Ice

Spreadsheet    Data

Arctic sea ice volume is currently in fourth place behind 2003, 2004 and 2014.  Given the rapid slowdown in melt rates and cold weather forecast, it seems pretty likely 2018 will pass 2003 and 2014, and it is possible could pass 2004 as well.

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66 Responses to End Of Summer Arctic Sea Ice

  1. John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia says:

    Start the oil drilling now!

  2. Mr Grimnasty says:

    Sorry for the irrelevant post, but seems too good to miss.
    Obama “………as the first sitting American president to come from Kenya…….”
    It’s a fake or a doozy – what do you think?
    I don’t suppose it will be up long.

    • R. Shearer says:

      It’s so fake looking, it wouldn’t matter if it’s real or not.

    • MrZ says:

      He refers to his father but it is still double standard as he wants to score points with the local audience. As I understand it he could not have become president of USA if what he pretends was true ie he was actually born there, hence the double standards. He can not be both true born American and Kenyan at the same time.

      Then on DMI 2018 vs 2014, lines will now cross August 12.

    • Johansen says:

      Grim, it’s not fake. Somewhere, if it hasn’t been lost, his grandma is explaining that he was born in Kenya. I have nothing against Kenyans, but our founders knew that loyalty was important and so put a native-born requirement in the Constitution. U.S. Senators have the same requirement, basically. Here you have a foreign born guy, educated in Muslim schools in S.E. Asia, using multiple SS numbers and lying on all sorts of applications to get accepted to colleges, attended for 20 years a politically-acceptable Marxist/Black liberation church that taught Jews & Jesus were Africans and America is pure evil, and couldn’t even produce a *believable* birth certificate until private-citizen Donald Trump forced him to do so. We had a bad person sitting in the Oval office

      • Johansen says:

        if you remember, it was Donald Trump who forced Obama to cough up a birth certificate. No one else had seemingly been able to do that!

      • Phil. says:

        What’s fake is that ID card, it’s a photoshopped copy of one issued to a student called Thomas Lugert.

        • Johansen says:

          Thanks for correcting me on that. I should have known something was wrong, because no one seems to recall Obama ever attending any classes there during those years

    • Andy says:

      I think Tony should do a Miscellaneous post section where irrelevant remarks can fester.


  3. R. Shearer says:

    Going back further, it’s possible that extent could exceed 1974 (satellite) and late 1960’s (pre-satellite).

    • Andy says:

      It is possible but then again it is also possible I need to buy some ice skates for skating on the Thames this November.


  4. Steven Fraser says:

    It will be interesting to watch how 2018 compares with those years.

    2003 was going gangbusters, but then had extraordinary melting right before its low point, and ten made an abrupt recovery. There was no other year in the DMI record that shows a change in direction like that year did.

    • gregole says:

      And who can know what kind of Arctic storms may occur between now and mid-September – remember 2012. But this year, there’s thick ice in the middle of the Arctic so blowing ice south will be tougher if there is a storm like 2012; which was a rare weather event anyhow.

    • Andy says:

      2003 did not have extraordinary melting before lowest extent, that was 2012.

      2003 was completely average.


      • Gator says:

        Actually 2003 had higher ice values than the average of the past 9000 years. But then again I am no cherry picker…

      • spike55 says:

        Nope, WAY above the Holocene average.

        You have been shown that , many times.

        Are you incapable of learning anything !??

      • spike55 says:

        And Steven is talking about 2003 DMI Ice Volume.

        And he is totally correct, it di drop quickly before its lowest extent.

        Get your facts before commenting, little andy or you will continue to look like the fool that you are.

  5. David M. says:

    Weather or climate? Artic regions remain cool. June was spent in AK, where the temperature was about 5F BELOW normal most of the time. May was also chill. Salmon runs were late. Spring had just barely arrived in Denali Park and Isabella Pass as of mid-June. I kept thinking about the embarrassment Gaia is causing Gore, Mann, Hansen, Griff and others expecting an ice free Artic. Gaia is such an ungrateful b….:-)

    Exit Glacier was one of the natural features seen while in AK. It’s retreat since 1950 or so is impressive. MORE IMPRESSIVE is the retreat between 1889 and 1926. The annual rate between 1889 and 1926 is MORE than 2x the recent rate!

  6. Frank K. says:

    Sea Ice Extent and Area are looking pretty good too…


  7. StephenMalone says:

    Back on point: https://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/resources/33 Acording to GRACE she makes it look ? as if you caused Greenland ?? Ice sheets to melt…so now you need to ? pay the FIDDLER, earth ?Redistribute the wealth; CARBON TAX FOR ALL❗️

  8. Josh says:

    But the self proclaimed experts- the leftists tell us how it is so warm in th European part of the e Arctic. This is very important for the whole picture cause the European Arctic is a big part of the Arctic area

  9. Josh says:

    Mike Serreze ( NSIDC scientist claiming the Arctic could be ice-free in 2008) still believes the Arctic is screaming.

  10. gregole says:

    Ok. My prediction for and ice-free Arctic: It won’t happen this year and I don’t care what Arctic experts like Waldhams and Gore say. Here’s why.

    Every year, Arctic ice level is cyclically seasonal. In the Arctic winter, no sunlight reaches the extreme north Arctic; and every summer its bathed in 24 hour sunlight.

    So there is a seasonal maximum; and a seasonal minimum. The seasonal maximum varies but not too much since the Arctic is semi-landlocked, and the seasonal minimum varies due to tidal and storm effects; sea-currents and temperatures, and atmospheric temperature. Considering all these effects, the minimums variance still lies within a reasonable range.

    So we have an Arctic ice maximum (with a +/- variance) and an Arctic Ice minimum (with a +/- variance). Subtract a reasonable min from a reasonable max and we will have a sense of delta ice from max to min.

    This is just a thought experiment; but an enterprising soul could easily come up with some numbers. And here’s the problem: There’s too much ice at the maximum. To get an ice free Arctic, we would need something in the range of millions of square km less ice at the maximum.

    Because forces “ice-creation” vs forces of “ice-destruction” do not net out to zero. There is a surfeit of ice at the maximum. And I don’t see this changing anytime soon (like in this geologic era for a definition of soon.)

    • richard verney says:

      The basic geometry of the planet (ie., its axial tilt) works against there being an ice free Arctic. It is akin to a negative feedback in the system.

      Quite simply there are too few days of sunshine to melt the ice, and far too many days of no or little sunshine that allows the ice to recover, such that one needs a significant increase in ocean temperatures for an ice free Arctic to materialise.

      Since more than 99% of all energy (the planet’s surface heat capacity) is stored in the oceans and less than 1% in the atmosphere, a warming atmosphere (if that is indeed happening at all), will take eons before it causes sufficient increase in ocean temperatures to melt the ice from below.

      PS. I am not using eons literally, but rather figuratively. We are talking many hundreds of years if not a millenial time scale, as one can see from the profile of the Holocene, and the time when there was very probably an ice free Arctic during the Holocene Optimum.

      Ice free is referring to summer sea ice. Even during the Holocene Optimum, presumably there was still winter sea ice.

  11. Gerald Machnee says:

    Here was one from Dec 7, 2016 in the Winnipeg Free Press:
    “Climate Change on fast-forward in Arctic, U of M scientist warns”, in the Winnipeg Free Press on Dec 7, I am left with the impression again, that some scientists fear monger with some purpose in mind.
    The first clue was this statement, “Hudson Bay could experience its first ice-free winter within five to 10 years, Ferguson said”.
    And Ferguson is a prof at the U of Winnipeg.

    • Steven Fraser says:

      That one is a hoot. Do you have a clip of that?

      • Steven Fraser says:

        Never mind, found the article.

        Dr. Ferguson is a biologist. He is listed as an Adjunct. His interest area is the effect of the ice changes on the mammals in the area.

        Ice-free in winter? I don’t expect that. last year, the northern Hudson’s bay area temps descended to below -4C on Oct 15, and by Nov 1 they were seeing -13. By Dec 1, -16, and then the cold air arrived.

        Temp on Jan 1, 2018 was -30C.

        Just thinking about it… what he describes would be a bay area that does not get below -4 for very long each day, if at all, for the whole winter. Right now, the bay is open for navigion for ~ 90 days each year, the rest of the time… there is obstructive ice somewhere.

        For myself, I will watch what is going on in the Great lakes. When they start to have ice-free winters, I will let _that_ be the canary in the coal mine. I think lake Superior should work fine for this purpose, since (as fresh water) it should not freeze unless it gets below 0C.

        • richard verney says:

          See my comment above on the basic geometry of the planet.

          A lot of university educated people think that it is colder in the Northern hemisphere winter, because the planet is further away from the sun!!! This was asked of University students in a survey, and nearly everyone answered that it was because of a change in the distance from the sun!!! This includes students doing science majors!!!

          People either do not learn or do not understand the geometry of the planet, and the implication of the basic geometry upon seasons and hence upon Arctic Ice.

    • spike55 says:

      In MASIE, Hudson Bay is currently above EVERY year back to 2006

      Its actually over TWO AND A HALF TIMES its average extent for this day of year during that period

  12. Robertv says:

    This fraud will collapse like a house of cards.


    (Where did I see that before?)

  13. Caleb Shaw says:

    Three men from France are attempting to sail from Alaska to Svalbard over the Pole in an iceboat-catamaran. They’ll give us on the scene reports.


    • Martin says:

      In 2013 they had be saved. This year is pobably not going to be much diffirent.

      Look at them having a hot bath on the scorching north pole in the image I added

      • Caleb Shaw says:

        They are clowns, for sure. We can joke about them being the “three stooges”. But I do value getting reports from the surface up there, because some of the satellite data is suspect.

        Stebastien, the leader, has been through this all before. That 2013 struggle was no picnick. We are just reaching the end of the roughly sixty day period when the pole receives more energy than it loses. Temperatures fall off slowly at first, but Sebastien knows how they then crash. By the end of August they were fighting temperatures below zero (-17 celsius) and gale force winds. (People remember the 2012 storm because so much sea-ice melted, but the 2013 gale was another big one, and was notable because the sea-ice DIDN’T melt.)

        In any case, the fellow knows what lies ahead. You’d never get me back out there. But it is a sort of second-hand adventure to watch some one else suffer. Not that they are suffering at the moment. They found a patch of open water with only scattered ice, and sailed with seals and Beluga whales around them, which sounds pretty nice. Covered 23 miles in a day.But now a small storm is swinging across from Siberia to Alaska, which ought make their lives interesting.

        Also he doesn’t fill his log with a bunch of stuff about Global Warming, (so far), which I find refreshing.

        They have only just crossed 71 degrees north, after battling the pressure ridges off the coast of Alaska. They still have a long way to go.

      • Steven Fraser says:

        There’s a lot of ice there, if only 10% of a chunk sits above the water line.

        Looks like a nice day.

  14. Andy says:

    Thanks for posting Tony on this topic again, hard to do that when the rest of the world is suffering from a bit of local weather. The two poles are more the bellweather.

    I actually think that the Arctic melt will increase in rapidity now on from another average year so far ( like 2016 and 2017) but perhaps not enough to get down to my guess as 4.1m km2 extent limit as measured by Jaxa.

    The Siberian side had a good start to the year and now gone more average. Canadian side had a slow start now increased to offset. However losses on the Canadian side are never very good if you wish for a small extent due to geography.

    DMI volume getting back on track with extent now. Not sure why their algorithm can not spot open water in May but can spot it in July a bit better. As long as it is consistent though.

    Greenland ice mass is so big currently Polar bears need to go on summer holidays up there for a bit of cool ice….. :D


    • Gator says:

      2016 and 2017 were both well above the average for the past 9000 years, so no, they were not anywhere near average. Only alarmist cherrypickers would consider any of the Ice values of the past decades “average”.

    • spike55 says:

      DMI ice volume is +1sd above the 15 year mean.

      And its VERY cold up there, and looks like remaining so.

      Still, we are very close to the peak of the AMO, and the sea ice extent is still in the top 10% of the Holocene sea ice extent,

      One could say ANOMALOUSLY HIGH.

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