In 1988, James Hansen predicted a large increase in the frequency of droughts since the 1950s, when he said the odds were one in twenty.
“Dr. James E. Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who presented recent data compiled from computer models, said that predicted regional effects of global warming show that the chances of summer drought in the low and middle latitudes would be 1 in 3 by the year 2030, as against 1 in 20 in the 1950’s.”
FEROCIOUS STORMS AND DROUGHT SEEN – The New York Times
Droughts in the US have been becoming less frequent, and Hansen was off by a factor of ten about the 1950s, which were in drought more than half the time.
National Time Series | Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
There was a severe drought in 1900-1901 which NOAA seems to have lost track of.
“The present drought Is following the same general trend and so far there is a striking similarity between the two. Both started early in the year, went through an extremely dry summer, were broken temporarily by a single month of abnormal fall of rain and were followed immediately by months far drier than those that had gone before.
Twelve of these dry months followed the 1900 “break.” Four al- ready have followed the “break” of last fall, with the fifth just starting.
The 1900-01 drought started in January, 1900. The total rainfall that year was 27.78 inches, three inches more than tn 1930, making it comparable. The normal rain- fall is 38.55 inches.
In the summer of 1900 a serious drought was followed by a 4.5-inch November rain, 63 per cent above that month’s normal rainfall, This temporary breaking of the drought was followed immediately by a 1.01-Inch rain in December and 11 more months of extreme dryness, which set up a 12 months’ record that has never been equaled, From December, 1900, to November, 1901, the 12 months’ rainfall was only 15.63 inches. In December that year an abnormal rain ended the drought and gave a total rainfall for the year of 17.99 inches, the record full year,”
