The frequency of 90 degree days in the US has been plummeting for 80 years, and is the lowest on record this summer
Alarmists will try to complain that this trend is due to time of observation bias, but that argument is a non-starter. The graph below shows the identical pattern for stations which took morning or night readings on July 15, 1936.
Conclusion : The US is getting much cooler, and Time of Observation Bias adjustments are incorrect. Below is the list of morning stations from July 15, 1936
FAIRHOPE 2 NE AL AJO AZ CHILDS AZ FT VALLEY AZ GRAND CANYON NP 2 AZ LEES FERRY AZ MIAMI AZ PARKER AZ PRESCOTT AZ ROOSEVELT 1 WNW AZ SACATON AZ SAFFORD AGRICULTRL C AZ SAINT JOHNS AZ TUCSON WFO AZ WICKENBURG AZ WILLIAMS AZ YUMA CITRUS STN AZ GRAVETTE AR BERKELEY CA BLYTHE CA CEDARVILLE CA CHULA VISTA CA CUYAMACA CA DAVIS 2 WSW EXP FARM CA FAIRMONT CA FARMVILLE 2 N VA HANFORD 1 S CA HEALDSBURG CA INDEPENDENCE CA LODI CA MERCED CA NEWPORT BEACH HARBOR CA ORLAND CA ORLEANS CA PASO ROBLES CA QUINCY CA SAN LUIS OBISPO POLY CA SUSANVILLE 2SW CA TAHOE CITY CA TEJON RANCHO CA TUSTIN IRVINE RCH CA WILLOWS 6 W CA YREKA CA FT COLLINS CO FT MORGAN CO TRINIDAD CO MILFORD 2 SE DE APALACHICOLA AIRPOR FL BARTOW FL BELLE GLADE FL FT LAUDERDALE FL FT PIERCE FL LAKE CITY 2 E FL OCALA FL PERRINE 4W FL TARPON SPGS SEWAGE P FL BAINBRIDGE INTL PAPE GA EASTMAN 1 W GA GLENNVILLE 3NW GA HAWKINSVILLE GA MILLEDGEVILLE GA NEWNAN 5N GA QUITMAN 2 NW GA TIFTON GA WEST POINT GA ARROWROCK DAM ID CAMBRIDGE ID DWORSHAK FISH HATCH ID FENN RS ID HOLLISTER ID KELLOGG ID OAKLEY ID PAYETTE ID SALMON-KSRA ID MCLEANSBORO IL WALNUT IL DELPHI 2 N IN PAOLI IN SALEM IN SHOALS 8 S IN CHARLES CITY IA FOREST CITY 2 NNE IA COLUMBUS KS INDEPENDENCE KS SAINT FRANCIS KS WAKEENEY KS FRANKFORT DOWNTOWN KY ALEXANDRIA LA BASTROP LA PLAIN DEALING 4 W LA EASTPORT ME LEWISTON ME WOODLAND ME CUMBERLAND 2 MD MILLINGTON 1 SE MD PRINCESS ANNE MD AMHERST MA BEDFORD MA GREAT BARRINGTON 2N MA LAWRENCE MA PLYMOUTH-KINGSTON MA ALLEGAN 5NE MI FAYETTE 4 SW MI MIDLAND MI CHASKA MN DETROIT LAKES 1 NNE MN MORRIS WC EXP STN MN NEW ULM 2 SE MN PIPESTONE MN CANTON 4N MS GREENVILLE MS KOSCIUSKO MS NATCHEZ MS PONTOTOC EXP STN MS STATE UNIV MS APPLETON CITY MO CLINTON MO FARMINGTON MO JEFFERSON CITY WTP MO LAMAR 2W MO LEBANON 2W MO LEES SUMMIT REED WR MO LEXINGTON 3E MO MEXICO MO MOBERLY MO MTN GROVE 2 N MO SPICKARD 7 W MO UNIONVILLE MO ANACONDA MT CHINOOK MT FORKS 4 NNE MT FT ASSINNIBOINE MT FORTINE 1 N MT HUNTLEY EXP STN MT KALISPELL GLACIER AP MT MOCCASIN EXP STN MT PLEVNA MT ALLIANCE 1WNW NE ATKINSON 3SW NE BEATRICE 1N NE BROKEN BOW 2 W NE CRETE NE FAIRBURY 5S NE FAIRMONT NE FRANKLIN NE IMPERIAL NE LODGEPOLE NE NORTH LOUP NE OAKDALE NE PURDUM NE WEEPING WATER NE AUSTIN #2 NV FALLON EXP STN NV MCGILL NV MINA NV WELLS NV BOONTON 1 SE NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W NJ MOORESTOWN NJ FT SUMNER NM LAS VEGAS WWTP NM MTN PARK NM TUCUMCARI 4 NE NM TULAROSA NM BATAVIA NY ELMIRA NY GLENHAM NY INDIAN LAKE 2SW NY ITHACA CORNELL UNIV NY LAKE PLACID 2 S NY LOWVILLE NY OSWEGO EAST NY SETAUKET STRONG NY STILLWATER RSVR NY TROY L&D NY TUPPER LAKE SUNMOUNT NY WALDEN 1 ESE NY WALES NY WEST POINT NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W NY ALBEMARLE NC ELIZABETH CITY NC KINSTON 7 SE NC SMITHFIELD NC TARBORO 1 S NC WAYNESVILLE 1 E NC BOTTINEAU ND CROSBY ND DICKINSON EXP STN ND DUNN CENTER 1E ND FT YATES 4 SW ND FULLERTON 1 ESE ND JAMESTOWN STATE HOSP ND LANGDON EXP FARM ND LISBON ND MANDAN EXP STN ND NAPOLEON ND NEW ENGLAND ND RICHARDTON ABBEY ND FINDLAY WPCC OH HILLSBORO OH BEND OR BROOKINGS 2 SE OR CONDON OR FREMONT 5 NW OR HEPPNER OR MC MINNVILLE OR PILOT ROCK 1 SE OR ROSEBURG KQEN OR TILLAMOOK OR VALE OR FRANKLIN PA NEW CASTLE 1 N PA PALMERTON PA READING 4 NNW PA RIDGWAY PA STROUDSBURG PA ANDERSON SC CHERAW SC COLUMBIA UNIV OF SC SC CONWAY SC DARLINGTON SC GREENWOOD SC KINGSTREE SC ORANGEBURG 2 SC SUMMERVILLE 4W SC YEMASSEE SC DUPREE SD FAULKTON 1 NW SD FORESTBURG 4 NNE SD GANN VALLEY 4NW SD MILBANK 4 NW SD OAHE DAM SD RAPID CITY 4NW SD COPPERHILL TN CROSSVILLE ED & RESE TN DOVER 1 W TN MURFREESBORO 5 N TN NEWPORT 1 NW TN UNION CITY TN ALBANY TX ALICE TX ALPINE TX BALLINGER 2 NW TX BALMORHEA TX BLANCO TX BOYS RANCH TX BRENHAM TX BROWNWOOD 2ENE TX CATARINA TX CORSICANA TX CROSBYTON TX DANEVANG 1 W TX DUBLIN 2SE TX EAGLE PASS 3N TX ENCINAL TX FALFURRIAS TX GREENVILLE KGVL RADI TX HASKELL TX LAMPASAS TX LLANO TX LULING TX MCCAMEY TX MEXIA TX MIAMI TX MULESHOE #1 TX NEW BRAUNFELS TX PECOS TX QUANAH 2 SW TX RIO GRANDE CITY TX SNYDER TX TEMPLE TX WEATHERFORD TX ALTON UT DESERET UT ESCALANTE UT FILLMORE UT FT DUCHESNE UT HEBER UT LEVAN UT LOGAN UTAH ST UNIV UT PANGUITCH UT ST GEORGE UT SCIPIO UT UTAH LAKE LEHI UT BREMO BLUFF VA CHARLOTTESVILLE 2W VA DALE ENTERPRISE VA PENNINGTON GAP VA PIEDMONT RSCH STN VA ROCKY MT VA STAUNTON WATER TRMTM VA WILLIAMSBURG 2 N VA BLAINE WA CEDAR LAKE WA LONG BEACH EXP STN WA ODESSA WA POMEROY WA PORT ANGELES WA PULLMAN 2 NW WA RAYMOND 2 S WA RITZVILLE 1 SSE WA SUNNYSIDE WA WATERVILLE WA WENATCHEE WA WILBUR WA SPENCER WV HANCOCK EXP FARM WI MANITOWOC WI ALTA 1 NNW WY COLONY WY GREEN RIVER WY MIDWEST WY NEWCASTLE WY SARATOGA WY SHERIDAN FLD STA WY WORLAND WY YELLOWSTONE PK MAMMO WY
Tony,
A lot of people may not have known (me being one of them) that some stations were read (only?) in the morning and some (only?) in the afternoon. I believe your premise is probably correct, but I don’t fully understand it. Is the graph (just above the conclusion statement) a composite of morning and afternoon readings? And the first graph is afternoon only? Some background on the theory of TOBs and how they claim to adjust for it would be helpful.
Here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/ushcn.html
I see this:
“The TOB introduces a non climatic bias into the monthly means. The TOB software is an empirical model used to estimate the time of observation biases associated with different observation schedules and the routine computes the TOB with respect to daily readings taken at midnight. Details on the procedure are given in, “A Model to Estimate the Time of Observation Bias Associated with Monthly Mean Maximum, Minimum, and Mean Temperatures.” by Karl, Williams, et al.1986, Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 15: 145-160.”
Daily readings taken at midnight?????
Okay, I can go look for that document, but understanding this issue requires understanding what equipment was used, how it was designed to be used, and how it was (ostensibly) misused.
Perhaps there have been extensive discussions on this, and I’ve just missed them.
If a min/max thermometer is reset only once a day in the morning, it tends to double count cold temperatures, leading to a cold bias. Opposite if it is reset once a day in the afternoon.
Any sane,honest operator with half a brain will reset the maximum in the morning, and reset the minimum in the afternoon – which is most likely what was really going on.
COLUMBIA UNIV OF SC SC
No. There was no USC station in 1936. The first USC station was established in 1954. It was moved to the Bates House location in 1973.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/columbiahistory.pdf
1880s
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/broker?id=381944&_PROGRAM=prog.gplot_meanclim_mon_yr2013.sas&_SERVICE=default¶m=TMIN&minyear=1872&maxyear=2013
Your linked graph shows temperatures. It doesn’t show the locations of the measurements.
Here’s another link:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/07/how-not-to-measure-temperature-part-81-roofing-the-past-in-columbia/
. . . showing that the station moved around.
It’s not very warm here in the UK at the moment and it looks set to get much colder this week 🙁
“Summer Frost Predicted as Met Office Issues Severe Weather Warning”
uk.news.yahoo.com/summer-frost-predicted-met-office-issues-severe-weather-165711936.html#QeuhwFC
Some place in Northern Wisconsin here already had a mid August frost pretty close to the line of 45 deg. Latitude.
Yup everything is OK looking forward to the Ice Age all is NORMAL this August. No Climate change repeat NO CLIMATE CHANGE
Everyone can CHILL now.News Flash the EPA no longer needed! Bring back DDT in human Breast Milt too!
Peace…….
Just saw this on Drudge. It fits in nicely with “US having coldest summer”.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2727734/Wet-cold-bank-holiday-way-forecasters-warn-two-weeks-bad-weather-ahead.html
The lows are getting less low and the highs are getting less high. The Climate is moderating. Oh, noes! Wotevah will we do?