Real Climate Science

The Guardian, Sunday 26 October 2014

Global warming has doubled risk of harsh winters in Eurasia, research finds

Severe winters are more likely over the next few decades due to climate change melting Arctic ice and sending freezing air south, according to new research

Global warming has doubled risk of harsh winters in Eurasia, research finds | Environment | The Guardian

The warm air is melting the Arctic, then heads south and is -40 in Minnesota. Makes sense if you are a progressive or a complete moron – but I repeat myself.

Not long ago they were saying this :

According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – Environment – The Independent

The IPCC said :

Warmer winters and fewer cold spells, because of climate change, will decrease cold-related mortality in many temperate countries.

IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The science is settled, and anyone who doesn’t believe these desperate liars posing as scientists – is a flat earther.

Projected Climate Change

As in other areas, the amount of warming in the Northeast will be highly dependent on global emissions of heat-trapping gases. If emissions continue to increase (as in the A2 scenario), warming of 4.5ºF to 10ºF is projected by the 2080s; if global emissions were reduced substantially (as in the B1 scenario), projected warming ranges from about 3ºF to 6ºF by the 2080s.

Under both emissions scenarios, the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves is expected to increase, with larger increases under higher emissions (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate). Much of the southern portion of the region, including the majority of Maryland and Delaware, and southwestern West Virginia and New Jersey, are projected by mid-century to experience many more days per year above 90°F compared to the end of last century under continued increases in emissions (Figure 16.2, A2 scenario). This will affect the region’s vulnerable populations, infrastructure, agriculture, and ecosystems

Northeast | National Climate Assessment

There isn’t one shred of evidence to support any of this. Summer maximum temperatures in the Northeast have been flat for 60 years, and were much higher from the 1930’s to the 1950’s.

And the frequency and areal coverage of 100 degree weather was much higher prior to 50 years ago.

The White House is simply making up propaganda in support of their political agenda.

From the 2014 US Climate Assessment:

The Northeast has experienced a greater recent increase in extreme precipitation than any other region in the United States; between 1958 and 2010, the Northeast saw more than a 70% increase in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events)

Northeast | National Climate Assessment

The White House team picked the crossover year of 1958 to start their graph. Heavy precipitation events in the Northeast declined from 1895 to 1958, and then started back up again. There has been no long term trend.

This level of fraud and malfeasance is quite spectacular.

h/t to Keith DeHavelle

A few years ago, Obama’s science czar John Holdren predicted we would have ice-free winters in the Arctic. This year he said that the melting Arctic caused the record Great Lakes ice.

So global warming makes the Arctic ice-free, and also makes the Great Lakes have record ice.

Someone turned Holdren’s brain into a newt, and it didn’t get better.

In his May, 2014 debate with Judith Curry in Boulder, Kevin Trenberth cited US warmth in 2012 as proof of global warming

Katherine Hayhoe is not your ordinary young Earth creationist. Most of her graphs start around 1970. Here is why.

Arctic sea ice extent will be close to, or above the median in about a week. This is because the current deficiency is in the Chukchi Sea – which always freezes rapidly this time of year.

 COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

I’ve been doing an experiment the last couple of days to lure in the clueless (like David Appell) and watch them drool when the bell rings.

Yesterday I posted a piece showing that 2014 was the coolest year on the record in the US, because it had the smallest areal coverage of hot weather. This is almost identical to how Arctic sea ice is evaluated.

Predictably, this brought great wailing and gnashing of teeth from the usual morons. They demanded that “coolness” should be evaluated as the average temperature for the whole year. That approach is idiotic – I will show you why.

1936 had the hottest summer on record in the US. But it also had one of the coldest winters. Taken as an average for the whole year – 1936 appears to be an average year – when in fact it was both one of the hottest and coldest years on record.

The map below shows all of the stations which recorded temperatures below 0F in 1936 – all the way to central Mississippi!

The following summer brought 110 degree weather to a huge swath of the country as shown below – completely unprecedented.

Average them all together and 1936 looks like a mild year – when in fact it was the most extreme year in US history.

Average temperature anomaly for the year was just about zero.

But the average of areal coverage of extremes shows that 1936 was the most extreme year on record. This is a much better measure of extremes than the meaningless average temperature.

Averaging temperatures can make people look really stupid, and come to really stupid conclusions. They should know better than to show up here intellectually disarmed.