Real Climate Science

(1) Wall Photos

h/t to Tom Nelson

The heat is on at meltdown part deux, and the beer cart has arrived.

summit:status:webcam

The graph below shows Arctic ice extent 2007 in blue and 2012 in red. The red dot shows where extent will likely be when the North Pole drops below freezing for the winter. After that date, any possibility of an ice-free Arctic drops to zero.

www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

What becomes clear is that an ice-free Arctic is not a possibility without a radical change in climate, and that people who make such predictions have no idea what they are talking about.

PIOMAS indicates an ice-free Arctic in three years.

I started trying to look at at GHCN today, and immediately discovered nothing but deleted data.

From John Cook :

1. Download my code ghcn_app.tar.gz
2. Go to ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v2 and grab the compressed data files (v2.min.Z, v2.mean.Z, etc).

A Quick and Dirty Analysis of GHCN Surface Temperature Data

This is what is contained in that directory

Index of /pub/data/ghcn/v2
Name Size Date Modified
[parent directory]
grid/ 7/24/12 5:44:00 AM
source/ 12/23/10 12:00:00 AM
v2.country.codes 10.2 kB 1/25/02 12:00:00 AM
v2.max.Z 5.9 MB 2/7/12 9:17:00 AM
v2.prcp.Z 24.8 MB 7/28/12 5:00:00 AM
v2.prcp.failed.qc.Z 162 kB 7/28/12 5:00:00 AM
v2.prcp.inv 1.2 MB 1/25/02 12:00:00 AM
v2.prcp.readme 3.5 kB 9/27/11 12:00:00 AM
v2.prcp_adj.Z 5.2 MB 7/28/12 5:00:00 AM
v2.read.data.f 10.7 kB 12/14/06 12:00:00 AM
v2.read.inv.f 2.8 kB 12/14/06 12:00:00 AM
v2.slp.country.codes 10.3 kB 10/3/02 12:00:00 AM
zipd/ 7/28/12 5:00:00 AM

There isn’t any v2.min or v2.mean file. They seem to have gone missing.

Next I tried looking at version 1 data, which is supposed to be located here :

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v1

Index of /pub/data/ghcn/v1
Name Size Date Modified
[parent directory]
README.ghcn 32.0 kB 11/22/95 12:00:00 AM
README.ghcn~ 31.8 kB 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
country.codes 15.7 kB 3/31/96 11:00:00 PM
data.for.Z 688 B 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
data.sas.Z 207 B 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
flag.for.Z 758 B 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
flag.sas.Z 294 B 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
invent.for.Z 833 B 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
invent.sas.Z 262 B 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
press.sea.data.Z 1.1 MB 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
press.sea.flag.Z 344 kB 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
press.sea.statinv.Z 48.9 kB 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
press.sta.data.Z 1.4 MB 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
press.sta.flag.Z 379 kB 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM
press.sta.statinv.Z 49.1 kB 6/28/95 12:00:00 AM

All of the temperature data is missing. The README.ghcn file says this

This subdirectory (/PUB/NDP041) contains 19 files including:

– this descriptive file (ndp041.des)
– FORTRAN IV data retrieval routine to read and print the station
inventory files (invent.for)
– FORTRAN IV data retrieval routine to read and print the climate data
files (data.for)
– FORTRAN IV data retrieval routine to read and print the flag code
files (flag.for)
– SAS data retrieval routine to read and print the station inventory
file (invent.sas)
– SAS data retrieval routine to read and print the climate data files
(data.sas)
– SAS data retrieval routine to read and print the flag code files
(flag.sas)
– temperature station inventory file (temp.statinv)
– precipitation station inventory file (precip.statinv)
– sea level pressure station inventory file (press.sea.statinv)
– station pressure station inventory file (press.sta.statinv)
– temperature data file (temp.data)
– precipitation data file (precip.data)
– sea level pressure data file (press.sea.data)
– station pressure data file (press.sta.data)
– temperature flag code file (temp.flag)
– precipitation flag code file (precip.flag)
– sea level pressure flag code file (press.sea.flag)
– station pressure flag code file (press.sta.flag)

The temperature file temp.data is missing.

So there you have it. All of the V1 and most of the V2 data has been deleted from their server.

Several inches of snow have accumulated since unprecedented meltdown part deux began. No doubt NASA has a bright red map waiting in the wings to display this meltblizzard event.

summit:status:webcam

summit:status:webcam

The real melting horror is occurring at the other pole however. Weather Forecast Vostok, Antarctica | Vostok Weather | Wunderground

GISS shows temperatures declining from 1880 to 1912, with 1912 being one of the coldest years on record.

Fig.A2.gif (652×474)

However, people who lived during that period reported the exact opposite. The polar ice cap was melting, glaciers were disappearing, winters were disappearing, birds were migrating north.

BIRDS MOVING NORTHWARDS. Zoologically the same change is ob- served, and it is not long ago since I read a letter from a nephew of Mr George R. Sims giving a list of birds which formerly inhabited the United States only, but have recently migrated northward and are now commonly   found in Lower Canada. This shows that the northern climate is becoming   warmer, and the statement is con- firmed by the fact that the records of the Hudson Bay Company state that”the winter on the shores of the Bay has grown shorter, at the rate of one   day in every ten years.” The same change is noticeable in Siberia, Green- land, and Alaska. The northern ice cap is decreasing in area and thickness, and the land, which was tropical and bore the grape-vine the magnolia, and the water-lily before the Great Ice Age, will become habit- able again. As an instance in confir- mation of this, in 1907 Dr W. S. Bruce’s expedition explored the whole ofPrince Charles Foreland, an island 60 miles long lying to the west of Spitz-bergen, and where only ice and snow   had previously existed, “brilliant ver-dent vegetatilon was found in several places.”

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1991

Born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii’

2004

Kenyan-born Obama all set for US Senate

2007

http://web.archive.org/web/20070403190001

Drought in England could last beyond Christmas – agency

LONDON | Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:11am BST

(Reuters) – A drought affecting parts of England could last until after Christmas, Britain’s environment agency warned on Monday

Drought in England could last beyond Christmas – agency | Reuters

All tee times are cancelled until the blizzard ends.

summit:status:webcam