Real Climate Science

NOAA claims that Oklahoma during July 2011 was the “hottest month in US history.”

Turns out it wasn’t even the hottest July in Oklahoma history. The raw data shows that both July 1936 and July 1956 were hotter than July 2011.

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ushcn_daily/state34_OK.txt.gz

But it is worse than it seems. August 1936 was also hotter in Oklahoma than July 2011.

NOAA’s hottest month in US history  was actually beaten by at least three months which occurred when CO2 was below 320 ppm. They are using garbage data to prove a garbage theory.

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ushcn_daily/state34_OK.txt.gz

The two biggest years for Oklahoma all-time record maximum temperatures were 1936 and 1956. By contrast, 2011 was not much above average.

All years which share a record maximum get counted in the graph above, so there is no bias in either direction.

Like almost all the other states, USHCN has been progressively cooling the past and warming the present. This allows them to turn an inconvenient cooling trend into a warming trend.

2011 has more than three degrees added on to it. This is actually not as bad as it seems. The reason for the big jump is that they lost several stations after March, and as a result had an excess of winter temperatures relative to summer temperatures.

Intellicast – Weekly Precipitation in United States

Last year we were told that Oklahoma was the hottest place ever recorded in the US.

It turns out that the raw USHCN data for Oklahoma shows that it was the fifth coldest year on record, and that record maximums didn’t even rank in the top ten.

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ushcn_daily/state34_OK.txt.gz

The mass media hysteria about Texas in 2011 was absurd. Average temperatures didn’t rank in the top ten.

The number of record maximums dis not match 1925.

Normalized by the number of measurements, record maximums in Texas are in sharp decline.

One year ago today, Andrew Dessler of Texas A&M University declared that Texas was in a permanent drought and heatwave.

Get used to it. The weather of the 21st century will be very much like the hot and dry weather of 2011. Giving extra credibility to this forecast is the fact that the weather extremes that we are presently experiencing were predicted in the first edition in 1995.

Texas is vulnerable to warming climate – Houston Chronicle

So how are Dessler’s weather extremes looking one year later? West Texas is forecast to be about 12C below normal today, with heavy rain across the entire state.

http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_t2m_anom_usa_c_3.png

http://www.weatherstreet.com/data/SPC_018.jpg

Yesterday, after I posted the US temperature record graphs, a number of geniuses started accusing me of calculating incremental records – i.e. during year one, every station sets a record on every day, etc.

Just for fun, I did that calculation and plotted it out below. It is completely meaningless and obviously not what I presented.

The graph below is the unbiased version, where all years which share an daily all-time record get counted.

Guest post by Joe Bastardi

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I am using my own alma  mater here so I can  not be accused of trying to  beat down other schools. But I think after looking at this, other schools that have great football teams with meteorology  programs, and we are loaded in the  Big Ten, will have to do some soul searching  as to their contribution to Human caused Global warming.

The facts:

While  researching for my  book “How football affects the climate”,  which I plan to put out to  try to outsell recent books on the climate fight, I have discovered that Penn State football may actually have been controlling the enso during the Paterno era.  How can I possible say that. Well if someone can tell me, you and the rest of the world that co2 is in charge of the climate,  given this factual data, and that the IPCC and climate models are correct even though  the are obviously busting( below)

Then I can sure as the sun rises make the case, that if you look at the  MEI  signal and then  look at Penn States  greatest football teams, there is certainly a stronger relationship. This could lead to even more grant money  pouring into schools,  to find out if their football program is also part of the Human caused climate catastrophe that we are all hearing about.

Here look at the facts..  PSU  top seasons,  vs MEI

Continue reading →

Since 1930, the average of all valid USHCN thermometer data shows a half degree decline in temperatures across the US.

But we keep hearing about the high ratio of record maximums to record minimums in the US. Below I will show you what they are doing.

I changed the counting algorithm to be completely unbiased. If ten different years tie for the all-time record high at a specific location on a specific date, they all get counted as the record. This increases the total number of records.

All-time high temperature records in the 1930s were far more common than they have been in recent years.

All-time low temperature records peaked in the 1920s and 1970s.

But here is the statistic trick. The ratio of highs to lows has been increasing lately. This is very misleading because the ratio of two small numbers is meaningless. Record highs and record lows have both been on the decline.

The far more important statistic is that the number of record highs has been declining.

But this is worse than it seems. Note that there was a large spike in the ratio after 1990. Something else happened around that time – the number of stations dropped off dramatically. If NOAA was purging rural stations, that would cause the spike, because the record would be affected more heavily by UHI effects.