Real Climate Science

18 Feb 1952 – RAPID MELTING OF POLAR CAPS CLEVELAND, Sunday.

16 Aug 1953 – FEATURES This Is What Science

Sweden’s reindeer population is on the verge of extinction – because it’s too cold for them.  The beasts – famous for their survival in Arctic conditions – have been struggling to find food on their mountainside habitats which are still covered in thick snow.  “We’ve had bad years before but we are really worried how this will work out. “I’ve already started finding dead reindeer calves on the mountain,” said herder Mikael Jonsson from Rans Sami village.

Deer Oh Deer – Around the World News – Austriantimes

h/t to http://iceagenow.info/

Electricity is very expensive in Colorado because of green energy regulations, so NCAR is building their latest climate supercomputer in Wyoming.

New Wyoming supercomputer expected to boost atmospheric science The National Center for Atmospheric Research’s machine is one of the fastest computers ever built, its sheer speed designed to burst through the limits of chaos theory.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research’s supercomputer has been dubbed Yellowstone, after the nearby national park, but it could have been named Nerdvana. The machine will have 100 racks of servers and 72,000 core processors, so many parts that they must be delivered in the back of a 747. Yellowstone will be capable of performing 1.5 quadrillion calculations — a quadrillion is a 1 followed by 15 zeros — every second.

That’s nearly a quarter of a million calculations, each second, for every person on Earth. In a little more than an hour, Yellowstone can do as many calculations as there are grains of sand on every beach in the world.

“These are chaotic systems, but it’s just math,” said Richard Loft, director of technology development at NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory. “We play statistics in the climate game. We feed in the basic laws of science, and out comes something that looks like the Earth’s climate. It’s an instrument. This is a mathematical telescope.”

New Wyoming supercomputer expected to boost atmospheric science – latimes.com

I know Richard, and he is a very bright computer scientist. The problem is that many of “the basic laws of science” are not understood and not modeled. For example, clouds can’t be modeled with any degree of accuracy more than a few minutes in advance. Scientists also have little predictive skill for ocean patterns like ENSO more than a few weeks in advance.

NCAR can throw a ton of hardware at climate modeling, but all it will do is generate GIGO faster than before.

Obama has borrowed nearly as much money as all other presidents combined, and yet has managed to keep unemployment over 9% during most of his term.

Table 1.1—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-): 1789–2017

There were people who issued seasonal weather forecasts which were founded on ridiculous ideas.

10 Jun 1937 – WEATHER FORECAST PROBLEMS Lecture By Professor

Nothing has changed over the last 75 years.

He was satisfied, however, that nothing had been published which had enabled a reliable forecast of the weather for more than two or three days to advance. Many people had asked whether the climate to Adelaide was changing, said Professor Cooke. He did not think that anything that we could imagine could change the conditions of the seasons anywhere to Australia within at least a century or perhaps even 1,000 years. To talk about changes of climate in a century was unscientific and wrong.

10 Jun 1937 – WEATHER FORECAST PROBLEMS Lecture By Professor

What most impressed on Saturday, however, was frost in the metropolitan area, in particular the city of Porto Alegre. It MetSul understanding of what was the longest episode of frost in the capital in decades. Even in the cold wave of historical years 2000, 2007 and 2009 there was no frost as strong as observed today in many places. There are reports of the phenomenon in the balconies of upper floors of some buildings in central districts of the city, within the so-called “urban heat island.” A white blanket covered the grass on the banks of the Arroyo Flood, despite the vicinity of the asphalt and the road beside the stream.

MetSul Blog – Weather –

Spotted owl could be game-changer in Tombstone water war

At the center of the debate is the Mexican spotted owl. “What is more important, owls or the people of Tombstone?” James Upchurch, a Forest Service supervisor who oversees the wilderness, was asked in court earlier this year.

Upchurch responded that there was no easy answer, which left jaws dropping on Tombstone’s side of the courtroom.

Spotted owl could be game-changer in Tombstone water war – CNN.com

It is OK to grind up raptors by the dozen if you operate a wind farm, but you can`t fix a critical water pipeline if there are any owls in the forest.

Thomas Jefferson was an ardent believer in global warming, until Noah Webster demonstrated that he was confusing UHI effects with climate.

In his 1787 book, Notes on the State of Virginia, Jefferson launched into a discussion of the climate of both his home state and America as a whole. Near the end of a brief chapter addressing wind currents, rain and temperature, he presented a series of tentative conclusions: “A change in our climate…is taking place very sensibly. Both heats and colds are become much more moderate within the memory of the middle-aged. Snows are less frequent and less deep….The elderly inform me the earth used to be covered with snow about three months in every year. The rivers, which then seldom failed to freeze over in the course of the winter, scarcely ever do so now.” Concerned about the destructive effects of this warming trend, Jefferson noted how “an unfortunate fluctuation between heat and cold” in the spring has been “very fatal to fruits.”

Webster concluded by rejecting the crude warming theory of Jefferson and Williams in favor of a more subtle rendering of the data. The conversion of forests to fields, he acknowledged, has led to some microclimatic changes—namely, more windiness and more variation in winter conditions. But while snow doesn’t stay on the ground as long, that doesn’t necessarily mean the country as a whole gets less snowfall each winter: “We have, in the cultivated districts, deep snow today, and none tomorrow; but the same quantity of snow falling in the woods, lies there till spring….This will explain all the appearances of the seasons without resorting to the unphilosophical hypothesis of a general increase in heat.”

Webster’s words essentially ended the controversy. While Jefferson continued to compile and crunch temperature data after his retirement from the presidency, he never again made the case for global warming.

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history-archaeology/Americas-First-Great-Global-Warming-Debate.html

Over the last 20 years, springtime temperatures in Washington State have fallen more than three degrees.

WASHINGTON Climate Summary