Guest post by Joe Bastardi.
Joe lets us know what to expect over the next nine months.
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The coming nino is in line with the cold pdo el ninos we saw in the 1950s-1970s and most recently in 2009-2010. This has been well telegraphed and a mainstay of the Weatherbell.com forecast since winter. In fact the pattern is not dissimilar to the la nina/el nino couplet of 1975-1976 where a very warm winter was followed by a very cold winter. The key is that the el nino coming, because of the overall now cold decadal state of the Pacific, will be centered in the central Pacific while the eastern Pacific is not as cool.
As a side note, the forecast of the development of the nino was part of the reason Weatherbell has the lowest Ace Index forecast of the major players. I believe that that lass than 1/3 the total ace of 70-90 this year occurs south of 25 north, where we have seen the strongest of the storms in the big ace season the past 10 years. However the forecast, made back in March , is already showing merit with the idea that the problem this year will be in close development with over 50% of the ace within 200 miles of the US coast. There seems to be linkage to very cold 400 mb temps in March with el ninos coming on, as the 10 lowest ace years have temps below normal from Africa to the Caribbean at that level in March and in 7 of them, an el nino developed! Well it did this year too. By the way, the way I started looking at that was because I was debunking the IPCC trapping idea and came up with this linkage in my studies. So this will be an interesting test. I presented this idea, along with a tornado linkage to temps at that level, at the ICCC7 conference, so its not like I am saying this after the fact.
The reason for this is that the el ninos of the cold PDO are basically a response to the longer lived colder signals of the la ninas. Joe D Aleo ‘s research shows that cold pdo el ninos last on average 9 months, while the la ninas average 21. It was why I was adamant last year that the la nina WAS NOT DONE and that the el nino would come on this year. In fact , in statements made at the end of the winter 10-11, I said I was uncertain about the temps of the winter 11-12, but felt that the winter of 12-13 would be very cold for the US.
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