Real Climate Science

Jon Huntsman has been arrogantly hyping global warming, while YTD temperatures in his home state have been falling this millennium at a rate of more than 30 degrees per century. See image below ….

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/ut.html

The blink comparator above compares the August 26 GFS/WRF forecast for yesterday morning, with the Weather Underground radar for yesterday morning.  Note that the forecast was almost perfect. I got the GFS boundary conditions from an NOAA web site. The image below is Manhattan wind forecast speeds in meters per second. It show peak sustained winds of about 33 MPH, which was just about what happened.

The best NOAA forecast data showed barely tropical storm force winds, so why was NOAA hyping this storm as a category two hurricane for New York and New England? There was never any reason to expect that.

What kind of drug abuse produces this sort of thinking?

http://books.google.com/books

Last year I said it was stupid for SAF to keep Shrek. Major fail for me.

A normal four day period in New York State sees 2,000 people injured and 12 dead in traffic accidents.

http://www.nydmv.state.ny.us/Statistics/2009NYSAccidentSummary.pdf

The LSM has been reporting that a half dozen people died in “hurricane related” traffic accidents along the entire eastern seaboard over the last four days. Perhaps Irene saved some lives.

Irene shut down Broadway, took a bite out of Hollywood’s box office, closed casinos in New Jersey and canceled thousands of East Coast flights. But the economic fallout had been predicted to be far worse.

The full cost of the storm, which caused widespread flooding and has so far resulted in at least 22 deaths, was still uncertain as insurance experts began tallying the estimated damage Sunday.

Overall, the storm, which was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical depression Sunday, could cost insurers $1.5 billion to $3 billion to cover claims for damaged homes, vehicles and businesses, said Jose Miranda, director of client advocacy at Eqecat Inc., a catastrophic risk management firm in Oakland. Total damage, including uninsured losses, could range from $5 billion to $7 billion, he said.

http://www.latimes.com/

New York is deserted today on what should be one of its busiest weekends for tourism of the year, as businesses count the cost of a four-day city shutdown after Hurricane Irene forced people indoors.

Retailers will make heavy losses because of a shutdown on one of the last weekends before children go back to school – and one of the most popular times for tourists to visit.

However C. Britt Beemer, of America’s Research Group, told MailOnline losses will be ‘catastrophic’ for businesses, as this weekend would have seen 10 per cent of back-to-school shopping.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/

TUESDAY … After another very chilly morning with isolated ground frost, lows 2-6 C, sunny by day with highs around 16-17 C. Light winds. A spell of cloud and light showers may affect eastern Ulster mid-day.

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/

Yesterday was an interesting day. I presented a very straightforward map from Weather Underground showing that there were no sustained surface winds higher than 33 MPH at Irene’s US landfall.

Hundreds of people went nuts, because the map disagreed with their need to blindly trust authority. They accused me of lying (did I make the map?) They accused Weather Underground of bogus maps (Jeff Masters the denier.) They came up with every reason to not believe the Emperor was NOAAked.

Incidents like this help me to understand the roots of historical disastrous human behaviour. Many people will blindly trust authority – rather than thinking for themselves or believing what they see with their own eyes.

I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided; and that is the lamp of experience. I know of no way of judging of the future but by the past.

Shall we try argument? Sir, we have been trying that for the last ten years. Have we anything new to offer upon the subject? Nothing. We have held the subject up in every light of which it is capable; but it has been all in vain. Shall we resort to entreaty and humble supplication? What terms shall we find which have not been already exhausted? Let us not, I beseech you, sir, deceive ourselves. Sir, we have done everything that could be done, to avert the storm which is now coming on.

The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!

http://www.history.org/almanack/life/politics/giveme.cfm

http://thesurfersview.com/