Steve Goddard (SteveSGoddard) on Twitter
arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.global.anom.1979-2008
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By the way Steve, great site and great job that you do here. I read your stuff daily.
Amen to that.
several times daily to keep up
when you consider that the record conveniently starts in 1979 at a peak year for Arctic ice despite having data from the early 1970’s when the ice levels are the same as today. we have even more ice than the “official” record states.
Fred,
You make too much sense and you are messing up the argument with pesky facts. Just keep repeating the lie and most of the sheeple will follow along until they freeze to death.
Steve
How did you reach that conclusion -from the linked info. Sorry not being awkward but I like to pass this stuff on but be totally sure.
https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/uk.sci.weather/MRY-RVwZzOo
Downloaded the data into a spreadsheet, calculated day of year from absolute date, sorted by day of year, and graphed.
Thanks Steve I’m not sure of the column headings though.
Date/ Anomaly/ Area/ Average Area
I use Date and Area columns
Only an agenda driven fanatic would interpret anything threatening, let alone catastrophic from that chart!
Steven. What do you think is contributing the recent year-on-year increase in Antarctic sea ice (and presumably the delayed melt of Antarctic ice this SH summer)? Antarctic sea ice area is of course overwhelmingly the largest contributor to this pattern which you highlight? Has the Antarctic region been cooling over this period, and by how much? If so, please post the data which show this. Thanks.
Sea ice is a good proxy for local temperature. It must be getting colder and cloudier at lower latitudes around Antarctica.
I think RSS shows a cooling trend at its SH extreme.
RSS is the only data set showing a very slight cooling trend. All the others show no change or slight warming. So, what explains the paradox of more sea ice?
“It must be getting colder” and cloudier at lower latitudes around Antarctica? Not necessarily, especially as the Antarctic region remains significantly below zero for much of the year, so it could be warming but still be well below the freezing point. Local weather patterns and ocean circulation may also be having an impact. Do you have any data on actual temperature in the Antarctic region – ocean and/or land? The best proxy for local temperature is, well, local temperature.
Grant. Here is a mind exercise. Does ice form faster when it’s -40 than when it’s -10? I know it’s a real tricky puzzler. I mean, they are both below the freezing point so the temperature doesn’t matter, right?
Hint: If your answer is that you can get more ice more quickly when it’s warming so long as it’s still below the freezing point, and you actually are serious, then you should get out of the science field promptly because you are really stupid and will only continue making a fool of yourself.
The corollary to Grant’s thesis is that if there is decreasing ice in, say, the Arctic, then this must be due to cooling. QED
Hmm, I thought a lot of people were saying that the increased Antarctic ice was due to melting in the interior of the landmass causing the sea to become less salty around it and therefore increasing the sea ice. But if Grant is right that Antarctica is well below zero all the time, then how could that be…
Of course, how melting on a landmass can be increasing the ice extent hundreds of miles from the shore to any significant extent is odd to me.
And if the best proxy for local temperatures is local temperatures (someone doesn’t know what the definition of a proxy is), then why is the best proxy for global temperatures a tree ring…particularly during times where we had thermometers?
-Scott
Morgan – Do you have temperature data for the Antarctic region? Land and/or sea? As I mentioned to Steven, the best proxy for temperature data is, of course, temperature data. All the temperature data I have seen for the Antarctic region show no change in temperature or a slight warming. Therefore the growth of Antarctic sea ice is a paradox which needs to be explained, not brushed off.
Morgan. There is no instrumental data set showing near surface cooling in the Antarctic region. Some, particularly in West Antarctica, show a warming trend – most show no change. Therefore the recent year-on-year growth in Antarctic sea ice is a paradox which needs explaining, not brushing aside. Unless one tends towards the gullible of course – in which case, please carry on 🙂
GISS has been showing the AP very cold recently.
Looking at averaged temperatures for 64-90 S, GISS is showing an overall warming trend if anything.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/ZonAnn.Ts+dSST.txt
http://www.climate4you.com/Polar%20temperatures.htm#Diagram Antarctic MAAT
So my question remains, how do you explain the paradox of an Antarctic region, which clearly isn’t getting colder, and may be getting slightly warmer, and expanding SH sea ice? Thanks – looking forward to your insight.
NASA shows Antarctica cooling
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003100/a003188/
Sorry for the repeat, but Grant should know how GISS manipulates the T.
The red over the SH oceans is done by NASA GISS via extrapolating questionable land reading 1200 K out over the oceans and or the ice. The Southern Oceans have been cooling for the duration of the record.
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/14-southern.png
That’s an interesting graphic – thanks. It shows a slight cooling over the landmass, and slight warming of about the same magnitude in the coastal areas. So still this begs the question: how do you explain the paradox of warming coastal regions and expanding sea ice in those same coastal regions?
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
Note: the graphic you link to also appears to be current only to 2005.
Antarctic Peninsula has been below normal for months. There is no paradox.
Steven – the Antarctic Peninsula has been the fastest warming region of Antarctica. In response to my first question you posted GISS data, which showed the opposite of what you thought. Others referred to Australia’s BOM station data, which all actually show either no change or slight warming. Others selected the single month out of 10 months of data, which superficially appeared to support the case for Antarctic cooling. You and your coterie are running out of feet. 🙂
Please have a go at explaining the clear paradox of a warming Antarctic and expanding sea ice. Ignoring this inconvenient fact invalidates your simplistic postings about global sea ice.
Thanks.
RSS shows a sharp cooling trend on AP for the last seven years.
The coastal regions are not warming. The Australian Antarctic bases actual temperature records that you can source from the BOM show no trend, going back to establishment dates.
I (and the temperature data) agree with Steven. There is no paradox.
The red over the SH oceans is done by NASA GISS via extrapolating questionable land reading 1200 K out over the oceans and or the ice. The Southern Oceans have been cooling for the duration of the record.
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/14-southern.png
Looks like polar easterlies are getting colder because central Antarctica is. Sea temps may be flat but the 80 MPH winds are moving up from the pole which is getting colder.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/ANTARCTIC%20Temp%20201302%20versus%201998-2006%201200km.gif
Yes, it is the winds sweeping down from the interior that likely form the ice, and also “bottom water”.
Note, those winds sweep down from high altitude.
Morgan. You have selected the only month, from climate4you, out of 10 months of available data for 2013, which shows cooling (February 2013). Yet accuse others of scientific illiteracy. You are funny. 🙂
Yes, the air moves down from the pole and picks up wind speed because of the rotation of the earth. 200 miles from the pole the earth rotates 50 MPH but 1000 miles from the pole the earth’s rotation is a whopping 250 MPH. Earth rotates to the east so the air moves to the west and is called a polar easterly. As the south pole cools, the easterlies get stronger (and of course colder), causing more sea ice.
Don’t tell this to chicken little though. He’ll make up BS reasons. My favorite is that warming causes more rain to fall on the ocean which freezes as sea ice. If this were true, you would need 8 feet of rain to make 8 feet of sea ice. Idiots.
Steven – you really are cherry picking to try to spin your story, RSS also shows a trend which does not explain Antarctic ice growth, unless you are very particular about the start date:. http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html
Do you have anything else? As i say, you are running out of feet.
The cooling trend on the AP over the last seven years doesn’t explain the ice growth over the last seven years?
You must be using that new kind of ice which forms in the heat.
Why are you showing global temps when we are discussing the Antarctic Peninsula?
“RSS shows a sharp cooling trend on AP for the last seven years.”
Steven. The RSS chart you show, and through which you drew a simple linear trend, starts and ends in different months. It’s hard to tell from the scale. which months, but the ‘cooling’ you show here is likely a statistical artifact – and meaningless if you use different start and end dates. Also, why, specifically did you select that start date you selected, and why RSS? Surface based temperature records have shown warming on and around the AP.
RSS shows cooling around AP since 1979
http://images.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/tlt/medium/global/MSU_AMSU_Channel_tlt_Trend_Map_v03_3_1979_2012.730_450.png
Ground measurements show no warming since at least 2005
http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/89062/2013/12/11/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&MR=1