100% Of US Warming Over The Last 20 Years Is Due To Adjustments

Measured US temperatures show no warming over the past 20 years, while the temperatures published by NCDC show 3.4F/century warming during that period.

ScreenHunter_928 Jul. 10 08.48

The graph below shows the difference between the average final USHCN station temperature, and the average raw USHCN station temperature. All reported warming in the US since 1994 is due to highly subjective adjustments by government scientists who personally benefit from global warming alarmism.

ScreenHunter_927 Jul. 10 08.41

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77 Responses to 100% Of US Warming Over The Last 20 Years Is Due To Adjustments

  1. daveandrews723 says:

    It will be proven to be a very dark period for science… bordering on outright corruption.

    • Jason Calley says:

      Hey Dave! I think they crossed the border years ago.

      • daveandrews723 says:

        a few climatologists with an agenda came out with a hypothesis and some bogus, purely speculative models to try to prove their point. People (including the scientific community and the liberal mainstream media) jumped on those models because they sounded so good and reinforced their own agendas. Now it’s big money for the “scientists” so they keep pitching it, sacrificing their own professional integrity. The low-information public keeps eating it up. The facts and the observations will ultimately prevail, but it is going to take years to overcome the big p r movement that has been established.

        • Anything is possible says:

          “Any model, including those predicting climate doom, can be tweaked to yield a desired result”


        • squid2112 says:

          “Any model, including those predicting climate doom, can be tweaked to yield a desired result”

          ROFLMAO…. Of course they can …

          I am just astounded. I have been involved in Research, Design and Development of computer software for almost 30 years now, and I am completely floored at how ignorant most people are about technology, and especially computers. One would think people would have learned something by now. Judging by this article (that fact that it was even written) proves this is not the case.

        • kirkmyers says:

          More people are waking up to the fact that global warming is a big con job. We’ll see more of our fellow citizens dismissing the AGW alarmists as flakes as Mother Nature fails to cooperate with their doomsday predictions.

          The IPCC climate models have proven to be catastrophic failures — a real-life example of GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) science. The fact that there is still a faction of true-believers who take them seriously is testimony to the power of self-deception.

          This ruse will finally come to an end as global temperatures continue to decline and we enter a period of long-term cooling, perhaps another Dalton Minimum or, heaven spare us, a Maunder Minimum.

          A little warming (and increasing CO2 plant nutrient) would be good for humanity. But an extended period of cold would bring with it famine and death as growing seasons shortened and agricultural yields declined.

    • Brian H says:

      Once the politicians twigged to the taxing potential of the AGW train, they made sure it was kept fueled and accelerating.

  2. philjourdan says:

    But they have pretty words to explain it.

  3. Bad Andrew says:

    This is why Steven Goddard has made so many Warmers mad. If there is no sciency graphic image of Warming (and the more extreme the Warming the better) to alarmingly point to, Warmers have NOTHING. All your poley bear stories, sea level rising, ice melting, smokestacks etc, go away as they relate to Warming. The stick to beat us with is *poof* gone.


  4. nigelf says:

    Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

  5. Andy DC says:

    The premise of 351 straight above normal months has to be maintained at all costs, even if the entire premise is ridiculous to begin with. Nothing with respect to weather is that orderly, a straight line in one direction. You are going to have a large amount of variation, whether you are warming or cooling in the long run. The satellite record clearly shows that.

  6. Chip Bennett says:

    And it is entirely conceivable that temperatures will continue to cool, meaning that adjustments to the raw data in the same time span may prove to turn a cooling trend into a warming trend. (Factor in UHI, and that may already be true.)

    • Factor in Pinatubo temperature depression in 1994, and it is already cooling.

    • squid2112 says:

      But, aren’t these fools just fooling themselves in the long run? I mean, at some point they won’t be able to jack with the temperatures anymore, and then all they have done is exacerbate an eventual cooling trend in their data, making the slope much more severe than the raw data would have suggested. It is unsustainable (like most things Progressive/Commie). Eventually, it has to come crumbling down. It is no different than the financial bubbles, or any other manufactured bubble. It will burst at some point.

      • Gail Combs says:

        It does not matter.
        All they care about is getting the law passed. Once a law is passed It is pure Hades to get rid of the darn thing.

        Bureaucracies ALWAYS grow.

        Governments ALWAYS grow…Until the overburdened tax paying citizens say ENOUGH!!! And resort to Defenestration or worse.

        ALL adults, whether they know it or not are paying 50% to 90% taxes or more and most of those taxes are hidden.

        151 Taxes in a Loaf of Bread ~ Ronald Reagan 1975

        If people need any more concrete explanation of this, start with the staff of life, a loaf of bread. The simplest thing; the poorest man must have it. Well, there are 151 taxes now in the price of a loaf of bread — it accounts for more than half the cost of a loaf of bread. It begins with the first tax, on the farmer that raised the wheat. Any simpleton can understand that if that farmer cannot get enough money for his wheat, to pay the property tax on his farm, he can’t be a farmer. He loses his farm. And so it is with the fellow who pays a driver’s license and a gasoline tax to drive the truckload of wheat to the mill, the miller who has to pay everything from social security tax, business license, everything else. He has to make his living over and above those costs. So they all wind up in that loaf of bread. Now an egg isn’t far behind and nobody had to make that. There’s a hundred taxes in an egg by the time it gets to market and you know the chicken didn’t put them there!

  7. Jason Calley says:

    When someone compiles “the Big Book of Amazing Coincidences” they need to include this one:

    BELIEVE IT OR NOT! In late 1994, UHCN stations across the US averaged more than 0.3 degrees too hot when they attempted to measure the temperatures at their respective locations. Over the next ten years their efforts each year became more and more accurate until that brief moment in late 2004 when they learned to measure the temperature with accuracy! Sadly the thousands of people involved then once again forgot how to make accurate measurements and began to read local temperatures too low, with increasing error each year. Now, in 2014 they are once again in error by more than 0.3 degrees — but this time too LOW in their readings. This strange aberration of abilities has followed an exact linear trend for two decades now, with no consistent scientific explanation! BELIEVE IT OR NOT!!

  8. xron says:

    I suggest you followup by providing links to the “official” original and corrected data. Then every skeptic, and warmist, who can work Excel can do the exercise themselves. This will surely comfort the afflicted, and afflict the comfortable.

  9. Last year, an incredible 35% of the monthly data was “estimated”.

    I actually prefer Booker’s definition – “what the computer decides the temperature should be”.


  10. Sean Cash says:

    Math DENIER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


  11. JP says:

    Perhaps American voters will realize the significance of these adjustments when the nation begins to experience rolling brownouts and blackouts. To most Americans who don’t really understand what is at stake, this isn’t just a fight between nerds and eggheads. The EPA’s mandates kick-in late this year, and most power plants fueled by coal will being going offline the next 24-36 months. It won’t just be sky rocketing energy prices, but our power grid will not be able to pick up the slack during peak usage periods. And these mandates are the result of highly dubious surface temperature trends that Steven has more than highlighted.

    Even with near record NG and shale oil production, the US’s power grid cannot make the transition that quickly, and our utility companies will have to compete with foreign energy buyers, as well as US consumers for NG.

    When Americans realize that the fabricated “climate trends” are the cause of the EPA’s power grab (no pun intended. But, their officials are working outside the jurisdiction of Congress who never said anything about CO2 being a pollutant) this charade might just end.

    • _Jim says:

      re: JP July 10, 2014 at 5:07 pm
      Perhaps American voters will realize the significance of these adjustments when the nation begins to experience rolling brownouts and blackouts. …

      It would help if one could reference something in the way of a ‘white paper’ analyzing where impending generation shorting-coming is expected; each of the regional power transmission/supervision entities (for the West, for Texas and for the East) issue such reports early in the year anticipating peak power demand during the summer months.

      For instance, here is the ERCOT webpage of REPORTS AND PRESENTATIONS: http://www.ercot.com/news/presentations

      And a specifically a “Report on the Capacity, Demand, and Reserves in the ERCOT Region” issued in May 2014:


      • JP says:

        According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, coal accounts for 44% of our power generation. In states like Indiana it is much higher. I don’t think you need a white paper to estimate the disruption. Currently there are 600 coal powered plants in the US according to Source watch; not all are distributed equally. And not all utility companies will take their offline immediately. It all depends upon how much pain they are willing to suffer via EPA lawsuits. The new CO2 regulations take effect on 1 Jan 2015. I think what most people fail to understand is that peak power generation can also come in the Winter. Dallas/Fort Worth had rolling brownouts during Jan 2010 when the thermometer went below 15 deg F and the wind farms in Texas failed.

        Also, if most utility companies are going to NG, what do you think is going to happen to utility prices during the winter months when residential homes have to compete with power stations for NG?

        • _Jim says:

          re: JP July 10, 2014 at 7:52 pm
          Dallas/Fort Worth had rolling brownouts during Jan 2010 when the thermometer went below 15 deg F and the wind farms in Texas failed.

          I addressed this below; this is a conflation of a natural gas supply problem with an electrical generation capacity problem.

          BTW, the wind farms did not ‘fail’; you are falling victim to ‘failing memory syndrome’ which trends to converge on results the individual favors (for whatever reason; politics, more favorable light, etc.) as a memory versus actual ‘reality’.

          If pressed on this issue I will post a link to a report detailing the facts as I have summarized them above.


        • _Jim says:

          BTW, it was 2011 and in February when this (the ‘big’ event) occurred.

          1) The cold front made it’s way through the northern part of the state 2-01-2011 in the AM accompanied by multiple forms of precip

          2) The rolling blackouts started somewhere around 2 or 3 AM on 2-02-2011 the next day when overnight temperatures in North Central Texas reached 12 deg F..

          Post on this subject at WUWT.

          A plot of system demand on the ERCOT ‘grid’ during that period:



        • _Jim says:

          re: JP July 10, 2014 at 7:52 pm
          Dallas/Fort Worth … when the thermometer went below 15 deg F and the wind farms in Texas failed.

          In truth, we find that wasn’t actually the case. Below is an excerpt from here and it goes like this:

          Wind resources, which are forecasted on an hourly basis, are also not included in the calculation of available resources for purposes of meeting the responsive reserve requirement. One of the most significant differences between the NERC Winter Assessment and ERCOT operations is how wind power is handled. The NERC Winter Assessment assigns a fixed average output of 8.7 percent of nameplate rating as “existing-certain” generation capacity. For the 9317 MW of installed wind capacity (aggregate nameplate rating) in ERCOT, this amounts to 811 MW.

          Operations, on the other hand, utilizes wind power forecasts derived from highly localized wind speed forecasts, which provide wind power output values for each of the upcoming 48 hours. The forecasts are re-run hourly and the results updated accordingly, yielding
          a “rolling” 48 hour look-ahead. ERCOT’s Current Operating Plan (COP) for wind power uses a conservative estimate which has an 80 percent chance of being met or exceeded, and already takes into account any equipment outages, either scheduled or forced.

          On the morning of February 2, the aggregate COP for wind power peaked at about 5200 MW at 3:00 AM and decreased steadily each hour down to 3500 MW at 8:00 AM. The actual wind power output followed the same downward trend, but fell short off the COP numbers anywhere from 400 MW to 1000 MW, depending on the specific hour. (This snapshot picture exhibits the variability of wind power.)

          So, we found that the actual wind output varied between 400 to 1000 MW below forecast values, and those forecast values ran from a high of 5200 MW (of 9317 “nameplate” MW or over 50%) down to 3500 MW which was not exactly a ‘fail’ but in line with expectations, and since wind is not included in the calculation of available resources for purposes of meeting the responsive reserve requirement[s] anyway, nothing was lost by having wind on-line and contributing to the “grid’.


        • Abbey says:

          If I understand it correctly, the price of natural gas paid by gas-powered generating plants in the northeast spiked to $35/mcf. this past winter.

          When Enron and other companies spiked natural gas to $50/mcf, if bankrupted one of the largest utilities in America.

          But it’s okay: “We are doing it for our grandchildren: and

          Our President: ‘But the debate is settled. Climate change is a fact. And when our children’s children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did.’

          With his Executive Orders, one, single man is going to destroy our economy for a generation.

    • Brian G Valentine says:

      Obama EPA. No more. Bye. End. The Russian people decided that the end of the KGB was long overdue, and this is the same thing. This EPA reached its limit a long time ago. It needs to be stopped by a revolution if need be.

    • kirkmyers says:

      The EPA, a monster created under the Nixon administration, needs to abolished. It was an unconstitutional creation from the very beginning in contravention of the founding document.

      The U.S. Constitution does not give congress or the president the power to create such an agency. Its creation required an amendment to the constitution. But rather than drafting an amendment and submitting it to the state legislatures for their approval, congress created the agency via legislative fiat in defiance of the clearly delinated amendment process.

      If the states want to create their own mini-versions of the EPA (the 10th amendment gives them such power), let them do it. At least the authority of such agencies would be regionally confined and the harm from any of their regulatory excesses contained.

      The EPA has done much more harm than good. It has carved out an empire unto itself, without any legislative or judicial restraints. Like a rabid dog, it needs to be put down before it can do any more harm to our modern industrial economy. If we do not defang it soon, the U.S. is destined to become another impoverished third-world country.

  12. blqysmsg says:

    In a mere 20 years, the difference in adjustments is 0.7º C. That’s the total amount of warming claimed from the entire period we’ve had thermometers!

    • kirkmyers says:

      And how much of that warming was simply the product of poorly sited thermometers? The USHCN and GHCN are a disaster, plagued by station drop-out, poor thermometer siting, and finger-in-the-wind adjustments via interpolation, homogenization and TOBS tweaking).

      To make matters worse, NASA and NOAA continue to minimize and underestimate the impact of the urban heat island (UHI) effect. For all we know, the 0.7C warming that has AGW alarmists panicked has nothing to do with the climate.

      Moreover, there hasn’t been any warming in more than 17 years (see RSS and UAH temperature data). The entire global warming scare will one day be seen as an elaborately devised scheme to defraud the public, gin up a huge new source of grant money for a few greedy scientists, and enrich a cartel of insider bankers, commodities traders and renewable energy companies, while providing governments with a pseudo-scientific excuse for enacting “carbon” taxes.

      We need to expose the criminal elements behind the “climate change” fraud before they can do any more harm to the human race.

  13. Gail Combs says:

    The closing of power plants will not effect all states equally. The middle east coast will be the hardest hit. Here is looking at the region Steve G. and I live in and Texas where _Jim lives:

    ……………………..Mid East Coast vs Texas
    Lost Capacity .. 17569 MW ……….. 1903
    % Lost ………….. 7.75% …………….. 1.74%
    Capacity ………. 226,692MW…….. 109,568
    Population …….. 87,290,362 …….. 20,851,820
    Area …………….. 306,967sq.Mi. …. 266,874

    Notice that Texas has less than one-fourth the population and half the capacity so Texas has TWICE the amount of Electric generating capacity compared to the Mid East Coast. Yet ERCOT (Texas) ran into trouble a few years ago and again this winter.

    Jan. 6, 2014 ERCOT: Texas narrowly avoided rolling power blackout

    July 10, 2012 ERCOT: So, About that Chance of Rolling Blackouts…

    On a certain level, you have to feel a bit of sympathy for the Texas grid, managed by the Electric Reliablity Council of Texas (ERCOT).

    It’s a well-known fact that there isn’t enough power in the state to meet the grid’s guidelines. The group behind the grid would like to have a “reserve margin” (how much of a cushion of generation capacity there is during times of peak demand) of 13.75 percent. But this summer it’s projected to get down to twelve percent, and drop even further in the coming years. So they’re being cautious, telling people that things are going to be tight.

    But at the same time, you don’t want to scare everyone. And you don’t want to look weak.

    This quote pretty much sums it all up:

    “You know, we want to get the message out of reduced usage during peak demand. At the same time, we want to get the message out that ‘Texas is open for business’,”

    After testimony this morning at a state senate committee by ERCOT CEO Trip Doggett, the Associated Press ran a story titled ‘Texas electricity supply will be tight.’ It begins: “The Texas power grid barely has enough electricity to meet demand this summer, and an unexpected drop in generation or spike in demand could lead to rolling blackouts.”


    State.. Cap….%lost….. Cap …… Pop. …..Area sq.mi
    KY….1416….6.71%…..21,089 ….3,685,000…40,411
    OH….6026..18.34%….32,854 …10,847,000..41,328
    PA…..3060….6.74%….45,406 ….11,882,000.45,310
    MD…..110.. 0.900%….12,215 ….4,781,000..10,455
    NJ……160……0.85%….18,924 ….7,730,000….7,790
    DE…..zero ……0.0%……3,357 ……666,000….2,026
    NC….. 802….2.64% ….30,391 ..34,283,564 …2,672
    TN…1236……5.80%….21,322 ….5,689,283 ..42,146
    VA…2239……9.01%….24,849 ….7,078,515 ..40,598
    WV..2520….15.47%….16,285…….648,000 ..24,231

  14. au1corsair says:

    Perhaps the Global Warming Gang can borrow Disneyland’s Esmeralda to make more-accurate climate predictions–or at least more acceptable to most Americans:

    Prettier than Al Gore!

  15. Gail Combs says:

    The question I have always had is why _Jim acts the troll.
    Here is an example from WUWT:

    _Jim says:
    November 11, 2013 at 6:00 am

    Gail Combs says November 11, 2013 at 3:56 am

    This does not include the cost of the Smart Meters and Smart appliances needed to turn off your electric so power companies can be supply continuous power to government and corporations. (You get the rolling blackouts not them.)

    Conflating ‘rolling blackouts’ with selective control of appliances (e.g. set points of air conditioners, delaying the start of water-heaters during high peak-load periods)?

    The broad-brush you paint with does your accuracy ‘factor’ no favors, Gail. Or maybe this will be just more claimed ‘editing’ failure? More apropos to cite the trade-marked hair-on-fire posting style …

    Industry and select customers who agree to ‘shed loads’ at the behest of the electric utility during high demands periods are ALREADY a reality. This is a logical extension into another part of the electric market that, so far, does nothing to control loads on the DEMAND side of the equation (excepting forced, total-cutoff BLACKOUTS).

    Steve Will get a good laugh at this one. This is a comment that A.W. allowed through on WUWT:

    _Jim says:
    March 18, 2012 at 11:13 am

    Helen Hawkins says on March 18, 2012 at 2:27 am:

    As a devout Catholic, I find it strange that the people who are pushing the AGW scam and many of the the AGW skeptics say the same things about my faith…..
    Gail Combs says on March 18, 2012 at 9:23 am:

    Helen, the attack on Religion was “necessary” and “deliberate” if “Socialism” was to be implemented.

    The threads of this decision going back into history are long as usual. The easiest place to start is the Webb’s Fabian Society and London School of Economics (LSE). If you investigate LSE you will find it is linked to world leaders like former Fabian chairman/ex-Prime Minister Tony Blair, Director of the World Trade Organization Pascal Lamy, Bill Clinton and even Gaddafi’s son.


    Is that where all this started?

    Not with Lucifer and his fall from grace?

    Not with being cast out of the Garden if Eden for (woman) being tricked to eat of the tree of Knowledge?

    Wow. I hadn’t realize all this had ‘roots’ so recent …

    _Jim says:
    March 16, 2012 at 10:00 am

    Gail Combs says on March 16, 2012 at 8:42 am

    … Look at all the world wide “Conferences” and treaties and such. …

    Hmmm … the ‘normal, worldwide functioning of governments’?

    Scary stuff … (side question: What’s it like to be a Bircher?)

    Note I AM NOT a Bircher although _Jim keeps calling me that.

    _Jim says:
    March 28, 2012 at 9:18 am

    Gail Combs says:
    March 28, 2012 at 8:02 am

    You got a blog yet?

    Somewhere where some of your ‘arguments’ can be de-constructed without soiling Anthony’s place?

    On second thought, never mind. I’ll start one …

    So have you started that blog yet _Jim? And if you have why don’t you be a good little boy and stay there while the adults talk?

    _Jim says:
    May 15, 2012 at 7:22 am

    Grey Lensman says:
    May 15, 2012 at 12:49 am

    Socialism is the monopoly of labour. Capitalism is the monopoly of money, same beast different spots. I think the posters mean Free Markets not capitalism. Science demands accuracy, No?
    Gail Combs says on May 15, 2012 at 2:55 am:

    No. Fractional Reserve Banking (Central Banking) is the monopoly of money. …

    Oh brother; here we go again (mods, I apologize in advance for minor transgressions or infractions I may draw in making this post) ….

    Tragically, when one’s ‘financial education’ (re: banking et al) begins with the fictional and entertaining works by G. Edward Griffin, we are apt to see all manner of ‘extrapolations’ into the absurd, and from one who appears somewhat rational and factual on some subjects…..

    So Why is _Jim a troll who has targeted me for years? (Aside for the fact he is a contractor and works(?) for a bank according to one comment at WUWT)

    Maybe because I dragged WUWT from looking at just the science to seeing the politics involved? Heck Jimmy-Boy even challenged me on Agenda 21 saying I was crazy….

    • _Jim says:

      If you recall, at the time I challenged you to support your assertions WRT Agenda 21. Up to that point a casual observer would have simply observed wild rantings and accusations against an unidentified ‘them’.


  16. Gail Combs says:

    I finally stumbled across a possible answer:

    The Texas gov says

    “…49 percent of U.S. electricity and 36.5 percent of Texas’ electricity in 2006 comes from coal. As of 2006, Texas had 11 coal-fired utility plants using coal as a main or backup fuel, seven in the Electric Reliability of Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid and four in the Southern Power Pool. Combined, these plants had 19 generation units with a total nameplate (maximum) capacity of more than 11,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity. In 2006, these plants generated 146.4 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity, 36.5 percent of the state total….

    Texas is the nation’s largest producer and consumer of natural gas, providing one-fourth of U.S. supplies and consuming one-sixth, primarily in the industrial and electricity generation sectors.2

    Natural gas imports via pipeline from Canada and Mexico, as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from overseas, now provide 19 percent of total U.S. supplies.3 Texas is the entry point for up to two-thirds of Mexican gas imported by pipeline, with a capacity of 2,485 million cubic feet (MMcf) daily.4

    Natural gas, along with crude oil, is a major economic boon to Texas. Combined, these two energy sources accounted for 14.9 percent or $159.3 billion of the 2006 Texas gross state product (GSP). second link

    So Texas has lots of Natural Gas to sell. No wonder Jimmy-Boy is down playing the closing of the Coal plants. Replacement of coal with natural gas will be a real boom for Texas. Of course we all will end up paying through the nose for the higher cost energy.

    May 16, 2014 Duke Energy Carolinas to build natural gas plant in South Carolina

    Duke Energy Carolinas announced today it will build and operate a 750-megawatt natural gas-fired combined cycle plant at the existing Lee Steam Station site in Anderson County, S.C.

    The North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation will own 100 megawatts of the project.

    The decision to move forward with this project is part of a comprehensive, long-term plan to add new generation, modernize the fleet, maintain a diverse fuel portfolio, and manage customer costs while delivering a high-quality, reliable power supply.

    “Natural gas-fired combined cycle plants are a good match to meet the significant energy needs of our customers over the next 15 years, and are expected to be an important part of the future Duke Energy Carolinas generation portfolio,” said Clark Gillespy, Duke Energy state president – South Carolina. “They are very efficient in the production of electricity using natural gas as fuel and have very low plant emissions.”

    The Public Service Commission of South Carolina approved the plant in April, and the company finalized plans to move forward with construction earlier this month.

    The company is in the process of procuring equipment and the contracts to begin construction so the project will be commercially available in November 2017. Construction is expected to begin in summer 2015….

    Duke Energy is the largest electric power holding company in the United States with approximately $115 billion in total assets. Its regulated utility operations serve approximately 7.2 million electric customers located in six states in the Southeast and Midwest. Its commercial power and international energy business segments own and operate diverse power generation assets in North America and Latin America, including a growing portfolio of renewable energy assets in the United States.

    Headquartered in Charlotte, N.C., Duke Energy is a Fortune 250 company…..

    Not a darn word about the actual costs to the consumers… GRRRRrrrrr.

    I wonder when we will see stories like this in the USA?

    Nine out of 10 families will be forced to ration their heating this winter
    The soaring cost of gas and electricity is forcing more households to turn off heating. Research from uSwitch suggests 89 per cent of families will ration their energy use this winter to save on bills.

    Taking the blame is the 21 per cent hike in energy prices in the past 12 months which has left the average household having to find an extra £224 for heating. “As the cost of our energy bills escalates people are being forced into making potentially dangerous choices,” warns Ann Robinson, director of consumer policy at uSwitch.

    “Whether they sacrifice something else to keep the heating on or turn the heating off to pay for something else, there is a modern-day Russian roulette going on in homes up and down the country.”

    Last winter, more than half of all households went without heating at some point to keep their energy costs down, risking health and well-being. Worse, almost seven million households are in fuel poverty, with single parents and pensioners the worst-hit…..

  17. Chip Bennett says:

    By the way: have your popcorn ready. The pseudo-polar vortex coming next week is going to be fun. 😀

  18. _Jim says:

    As usual, Gail pins the majority of her “prosecutor’s case” on old articles, old press releases and ‘facts’ as they stood a couple years back, failing to realize the dynamic nature of this ‘business’ and how planning for the future actually works in some cases.

    And that’s why I asked JP if he had anything substantive to cite to support his assertions.

    The rolling blackouts which occurred in the winter a couple of years back were the result of natural gas supply problems, due in part to ‘freeze ups’ occurring in the natural gas pipeline and supply system itself and also as a result of high domestic use as well as commercial generation use.

    At any time rolling blackouts are a possibility IF the proper unfortunate set of conditions are met, such as if 2 or three large base-load plants were to trip off-line OR if critical transmission facilities were to trip or become unavailable.

    To place major blame on the EPA without full knowledge of the situation for any given ‘rolling blackout’ event is to cry ‘the sky is falling’ prematurely.


  19. Don says:

    OT Another big ‘peer review scandal’. Of course the biggest is in the field of climate no doubt.


  20. Gail Combs says:

    _Jim you want up to date? You want it straight from the horses mouth?

    Then read Testimony of
    Nicholas K. Akins
    Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
    American Electric Power
    Before the
    Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee
    Hearing on the Impact of Generation Retirements on Electric Reliability
    April 10, 2014

    He says the exact same thing I have been saying for a couple of years but goes into some of the nastier details like the Nuclear Plants closing and the problem of not enough natural gas last winter and having to choose between home heating and electric. Also instead of the 2012 estimate of 34 GW of Electricity Generation going Offline, Akins says: “62,800 megawatts by 2023… But the timing of many of the retirements will be driven by the MATS compliance deadline. So guess what that estimate was CONSERVATIVE!

    …In the next 14 months, AEP will retire almost a quarter of our coal-fueled generating
    units. We have one of the largest generation fleets in the country, and one-fourth of our coal-
    fueled capacity will be shuttered. There is no turning back for these units. In PJM, 13,000
    megawatts of additional capacity will be retiring by mid-2015….

    In New England during the polar vortex, it became clear that we are having to make a
    choice in the winter between committing natural gas resources to generating electricity or to
    heating homes. 24 Right now, we cannot do both. Given the number of additional base load
    generating units that will be retired in the next 14 months, we face a very real possibility that we
    will have to make that choice more often in the future…..

    Reliability Impact: Generation is Retiring
    Prior to implementation of MATS, we did not have an adequate assessment of the impact of these environmental regulations on our nation’s base load generation. When the MATS rule was proposed, the U.S. EPA projected that the rule would result in approximately 10,000 megawatts of coal-fueled generation being retired. More recently, NERC’s 2013 Long Term Reliability Assessment places the retirement number at 62,800 megawatts by 2023. Not all of these retirements are due to MATS, with lower natural gas prices, weak electric demand and flawed markets all playing a role. But the timing of many of the retirements will be driven by the MATS compliance deadline.

    AEP will retire an additional 6,586 megawatts (approximately 1/4 of its coal-fueled capacity) with most retirements occurring in mid-2015. 29 We will not add any new capacity in the near term. The total PJM capacity market is approximately 169,000 megawatts. 30 According to PJM, more than 9,827 megawatts of generation already has been shut down since the 2007/08 delivery year and another 12,909 megawatts is scheduled to retire in the next two years. While 8,750 megawatts of new generation that cleared in the PJM capacity auction is supposed to go online in 2015 and 2016, only approximately 4,500 megawatts currently is reported as under construction.

    READ that again _Jim – While 8,750 megawatts of new generation that cleared in the PJM capacity auction is supposed to go online in 2015 and 2016, only approximately 4,500 megawatts currently is reported as under construction.

    Then ADD IN:

    A month ago, I made headlines when I said 89 percent of the generation that AEP will be retiring in 2015 was called upon to meet electricity demand in January. That is a fact. These units were called upon by PJM and relied upon to maintain regional reliability….

    During this past winter, PJM was faced with certain challenges that threatened the reliability of the electric grid…

    As others have noted, the system bent but it did not break. Reliability was sustained, but at times was very close to the edge.” The weather events experienced this winter provided an early warning about serious issues with electric supply and reliability. PJM was not alone. Many of the Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) and Balancing Authorities needed to call on Emergency Procedures to ensure reliable operations. This country did not just dodge a bullet – we dodged a
    cannon ball.

    We need to take action now to ensure adequate power plant capacity, fuel diversity and grid investment after the retirement of significant amounts of base load generation in mid-2015 and beyond. Because the base load generation that will retire in 14 months will not be fully replaced, this reliability concern is imminent and is a concern we need to proactively address….

    So All I have to say to you, Jim is, Gå tilbake under brua din.

    • _Jim says:

      Not a white paper; do you have a white paper you would like to cite? Something the planning engineers would produce, not the PR department for AEP’s president and CEO.


    • DEEBEE says:

      Gail, useless effort. Jim is apparently just a KKK member, he does not believe I papers unless they are of the right color.

      • _Jim says:

        Unable to address the issue substantively so impugn the witness. Uh huh. I see what you do … did you just drag Gail down to your level or are you trying to ‘hoist’ yourself up to hers? See, two can play that game. Be careful you do not succumb to playing the ‘easy’ game of ad homs and baseless charges flung b/c they are easy to fling.

  21. _Jim says:

    I’ll be the judge of that; most of you, including Gail, miss a larger point presented in the, ah, ‘paper’ she ‘cited’.

    And I’ll bet none of you can specify that point.


  22. _Jim says:

    Many posters are still in substantial need of edification on this subject, including Gail, as evidenced by the projection of ‘expertise’ in a field which they have not endeavored, but rather only read a few brief stories or accounts and thereby extrapolate to far beyond reality. The other aspect of this subject was only briefly touched on by Gail, but that discussion was sidetracked by the piling-on of a few who seem to make it their point to stand up for Gail’s ‘honor’; how many of you will return when Gail begins to expound on how ‘the fed’ was founded by quoting excerpts from G. Edward Griffin’s fanciful and only remotely-factual work titled: The Creature from Jekyll Island?

    Back to factual issues. How many of you can define, within the field of power generation and transmission ‘reliability’? No, … it does not have the ‘standard’ grade-school definition you learned years ago .. how about the term ‘security’ as it relates to power generation and transmission? No, it … does not have the same grade-school definition you learned years ago either.

    And that is just the beginning. The field of ‘power engineering’ evolved a number of their own terns that are used to describe the ‘dynamic’ aspect of system stability and ‘response’ to step loads and the like which affect the dynamic, rotating machinery comprising any number of generators present in a system (which lay people thru the popular press call ‘the grid’) and that’s not considering the ‘dynamic’ load response on the demand (user) side of the system due to ‘step’ changes (such as the response induction motors present to a large, interconnected system of such dynamic loads as motors and the rotating generation systems on the other end).

    Coursework in this area is dry and not very interesting. It also doesn’t ‘advance’ as fast as the field of ‘data processing’ -sorry- “IT”. Also the concepts are more akin to those found in ‘radio’ than anything else, including mechanics (unless you have studied resonant structures/resonance and have some concept of ‘stored’ energy outside of batteries).

    Getting started – Lecture 1 – Introduction to Power system analysis


  23. _Jim says:

    A better paper getting at the core of the issue with the EPA coming down hard on coal plants –

    “Recent Electricity Price Increases and Reliability Issues
    Due to Coal Plant Retirements”


  24. _Jim says:

    Unfortunately, getting you ppl to ‘think’ and research the subject of America’s power system is a little like herding cats … so continuing in the educational vein kicked off above here is the next installment in this ‘enlightenment’ series. The following is the the opening excerpt from:

    2014 Summer Reliability Assessment
    May 2014

    Executive Summary and Key Findings

    The 2014 Summer Reliability Assessment includes a high?level perspective on the adequacy of the generation resources and transmission systems necessary to meet projected summer peak demands. NERC also independently identifies reliability issues of interest and assessment area-specific challenges. The primary objective of the report is to identify areas of concern regarding the reliability of the North American BPS and to make recommendations as needed. The assessment process enables BPS users, owners, and operators to systematically document their operational preparations for the coming season and to exchange vital system reliability information.

    As highlighted in numerous recent long-term reliability assessments, the BPS in North America is changing in many ways. Each summer, NERC has observed incremental changes in the resource mix, which has trended toward a generation base that is now predominately (i.e., almost 40 percent) gas-fired generation, an increase of 28 percent five years ago. The continued
    wide-scale retirement of coal, petroleum, nuclear, and other baseload generation is largely being addressed by the addition of gas-fired and variable (e.g., wind, solar) resources.

    From a resource adequacy perspective, all of the assessment areas that NERC evaluates appear to have sufficient resources to meet peak demand. Previous summer assessments highlighted potential resource adequacy concerns in ERCOT. New resources, expected to be in service in early August, will increase ERCOT’s planning reserve margin above the NERC Reference
    Margin Level.
    However, if extreme system peaks occur before these new resources are available, ERCOT may need to take progressive steps to protect system integrity depending on the severity of the capacity shortage.

    The 2014 Summer Reliability Assessment shows that peak demand forecasts are flat compared to last year, which also results in sufficient reserve margins needed to maintain BPS reliability. However, NERC continues to monitor the overall changes to the BPS’s resource mix and the operating characteristics of different types of resources. For example, in New England,
    a large natural gas-fired generation portfolio has created challenges in ensuring that natural gas can be supplied and transported to all generators that are needed to maintain electric reliability. Much of the focus on electric and gas interdependencies targets conditions during the winter season when the availability of natural gas for electric generators competes with the high demands of residential heating. However, the summer season presents a separate set of concerns regarding gas availability. Specifically, natural gas storage facilities are refilled during the summer season while several pipelines and pipeline compressor stations are also undergoing maintenance.

    NERC has identified three key findings for the upcoming summer:

    NERC-wide, Assessment Areas Meet Summer Reference Margin Levels

    ? In ERCOT, adequate planning margins are contingent on pending capacity expected in August. Additionally, the implementation of a new load forecasting methodology has resulted in a lower annual growth rate. ERCOT may face operational challenges due to insufficient reserves if the summer peak occurs prior to the availability of planned capacity, or if actual peak demand is substantially higher than the load forecast.

    ? In MISO, [this is in the Midwest basically] unit retirements, derates, and mothballs contribute to reduced margins.

    Continued Impacts of Baseload Retirements

    ? Since 2011, there have been almost 43 GW of baseload (coal, nuclear, petroleum, and natural gas) retirements, contributing to reduced margins in some assessment areas, as well as a reduction in the availability of essential reliability services, such as frequency response and inertia.

    ? Ontario retired the area’s last coal plant (Thunder Bay Generating Station) in April. The Anticipated Margin has fallen by 10 percent since last summer but remains well above the NERC Reference Margin Level.

    ? Localized reliability issues are not expected to impact this summer, though some Regions have noted the need for transmission upgrades over the next two years.

    Summer Gas-Electric Transportation Considerations

    ? Meeting summer peaks requires increasing dependence on gas-fired capacity.

    ? Summer pipeline maintenance and increased demand for natural gas storage injections can contribute to constraints for interruptible gas-fired generation.

    – – – – – –

  25. Hugh K says:

    Attempting to stay OT – When one sits back and contemplates the headline of this post, it is quite amazing. Basically, if the government had done their job, ALL scientists had done theirs and the media were not in a fetal position in the corner of the oval office, we could have saved trillions of dollars wasted on the global warming fantasy world-wide over the past 20 years. How many pairs of slightly soiled underwear would that have provided to our southern invaders over the same period of time?

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