Politihack did a followup :
Judith Curry, a climatologist at the Georgia Institute of Technology, also originally downplayed Heller’s claims. But after seeing the data from Texas, Curry acknowledged that he might have had a point.
“I infer from this that there seems to be a real problem with the USHCN data set, or at least with some of the stations,” Curry wrote. “Maybe it is a tempest in a teacup, but it looks like something that requires NOAA’s attention.”
That said, Curry also tweeted that “what Goddard did to the data was bogus.”
Fox’s Doocy: NASA fudged data to make the case for global warming | PunditFact
What I did to the data was exactly nothing. I left the data completely intact. That is considered bogus in climate science.
Curry also tweeted that “what Goddard did to the data was bogus.“…
Uh no…..the strawman that Zeke created was bogus…and she fell for it too
Not on the hero list.
It is amazing how these people will flip the toast before it hits the floor so it lands butter-side up for them.
You butter it before you add your creamed chipped beef?
Well it doesn’t matter does it?
After all I’m not some bigshot, being wined and dined by the establishment climate cabal.
I’m just some shlub with a dusty chipped beef sandwich.
The only thing for breakfast toast is choclate covered bacon …
Does it matter with the floor full of dirt. It won’t be eatable anymore.
Don’t worry. The thick layer of CO2 will protect it from the dirt.
I really don’t think any of you got the joke.
Here’s Dr. Curry almost endorsing our host’s work.
[drops toast}
But manages to flip it on the way down by denigrating him so that it lands butter side up for her in that rareified “who is a real climate scientist” air.
you and others work is to be commended .this is as big as climategate .the only problem is,where did climategate change anything. ever increasing grants,ever increasing climatology graduates,ever increasing human induced climate change thermageddon papers of poor standard when the math is reviewed by the likes of mcintyre.
it would appear the game is indeed up, but anyone that matters has too big an investment either politically,financially or in reputation to want to change,and of course the money men that really run the world these days are making another fistful of dollars.
there is a hardcore of followers on either side of the debate that will continue to fill these blog comment sections for evermore ,but in reality ,the vast majority of the worlds population really do not give a shit either way anymore ,they have become numb to catastrophitis (my new word for the day) as reported on a daily basis by the msm. without the support and voice of the middle classes in the developed world,none of this valid criticism is going to change a damn thing.
People will care when the rolling blackouts hit during hot summer days or worse cold winters nights while their electric bills double and quadruple. People didn’t give a hoot about banking and bankers until Foreclosuregate now even the Latinos I talk to know what the politicians/bankers were up to.
Do not forget the cost of electric will drive the price of everything else up too as stores and what factories we have left will need to increase prices to stay solvent. (Now add in Obummercare…)
Texas Energy Foundation: Short on Electricity
This is just what has happened so far to costs, but it is a good report:
American Coalition For Clean Coal Electricity Energy Cost Impacts on American Families, 2001-2012
http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/topics/policy/electricity-generation-cost/
http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/topics/policy/power-plant-closures/
(Has not been updated to include the newest EPA rulings or plant closures.)
“The Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) have been working for two years to remedy looming electricity shortfalls in the state. Insufficient generating capacity could cause rolling brownouts and blackouts across Texas.”
We are fine this year. Note the pub date on that piece: Jan 18, 2013, over a year and a half ago. Things can change in that period of time. Maybe you don’t know where to go to see authoritative up-to-date info on Texas? In which case this page may be of use to you:
REPORTS AND PRESENTATIONS – http://www.ercot.com/news/presentations
Meanwhile, this is the “Report on the Capacity, Demand, and Reserves
in the ERCOT Region” issued in May 2014:
http://www.ercot.com/content/news/presentations/2014/CapacityDemandandReserveReport-May2014.pdf
Here are the salient facts from the “Ercot – Quick Facts” sheet:
.
You really are an Optimist aren’t you _Jim, guess you never had to wrestle with a pig in mud….. ERRRrrr deal with the government bureaucracy.
ERCOTs scramble to get out of their current mess still does not change the picture for the USA as a whole.
Over three times as many coal plants are going down than the EPA expected and if new (gas or nuclear) plants are not built in time the grid goes down PERIOD.
Think of all the red tape and all the bureauRats who don’t give a crap and will say NO just to protect their jobs. If the government is involved it costs 10X as much and takes 5X as long… IF you get it done at all. (See examples below.)
Then think of all the radical protesters or worse the antifracking crowd. The Canadians have already tossed up their hands and will be shipping their oil and gas to China so WHERE are we going to get all that Natural Gas from to run those new plants? Russia? It certainly will not be from the USA. Given I am sitting on 100 acres over the Triassic Basin shale gas that the state of North Carolina will not allow to be drilled…
And then the Feds are getting into the act too.
NUclear? Don’t make me laugh The USA may be shutting down 1/3 of its fleet and some operators have even canceled relatively low-cost “uprate” projects that would increase capacity at existing plants.
Here is an actual example of what “New Clean Energy” has to go through:
re: Gail Combs July 1, 2014 at 10:35 pm
You really are an Optimist aren’t you _Jim,
No, Gail I’m dealing with ‘facts’ as opposed to editorials posing as articles. You posted a 1 and 1/2 yo opinion piece and I countered with what is reality today.
Now, do you want to discuss how Texas is handling this or ‘coat rack’ into the entire US? You posted information specific to Texas, and now have moved on to the entire United States; without further time invested I don’t know the specifics of how the US generation side of the power supply system is coping with the planned closure of more coal plants.
I addressed Texas as that was the example in your previous post. Moving the goal posts arbitrarily mid discussion is bad form, BTW, and falls into the category of intellectually-dishonest debate tactics, namely, “Changing the subject”.
Remember my admonition that ‘adults are in charge’ yet on some issues? Power generation in Texas is one of those issues, fortunately, at least, for the foreseeable future.
.
Jim YOU are the one shifting the goal posts. I used ERCOT as an example of a grid that was having problems. I also linked to other pieces. As far as I know ALL of the USA is interconnected so you can have the entire East Coast go down (which is the most probable happening) As one power systems engineer commented on WUWT:
“Letting non-professionals get involved in the power grid is like giving the keys to the family car and a bottle of whiskey to a 14 year old boy and his pals. If the renewables were viable, we’d adopt them by the train-load and build them so fast your head would spin.”
So there is your ADULT weighing in on the subject. We have a bunch of Idiotic Congress Critters and EPA bureaucrats playing power systems engineer and you think these people are ADULTS??? Have you bothered to talk to a local electric coop about the problem? I have. Mine was even looking into getting a modular nuclear plant a couple years ago because they could see the writing on the wall, unlike you.
BTW even ERCOT said they were having problems:
Demand Response is the code words for Smart Grid. What they neglect to say is the way this is Demand Response works is with Smart Meters This allows residential electricity to be turned off so the system can be balanced.
re: Gail Combs July 1, 2014 at 11:55 pm
Jim YOU are the one shifting the goal posts. I used ERCOT as an example of a grid that was having problems.
Faulty example, there were, and are, no problems.
My whole point is as summarized previously. Adults are in charge down here. What, do you think we are stupid or something in this state?
.
“What Goddard did was bogus! He didn’t make any adjustments!”
=========================================
How are you supposed to actually quantify the adjustments unless you first establish what the data shows without making any adjustments?
Why do so many supposedly intelligent people find that so difficult to understand?
“Why do so many supposedly intelligent people find that so difficult to understand?”
>>>>>>>>>>>>
When your pay check depends on “Not Understanding” then you “Don’t Understand”
Turn a blind eye:
“What Goddard did was bogus! He didn’t make any adjustments!”
Some of these “scientists” have been accepting bogus data and methods for so very long that they don’t even know what science is anymore.
Karl Popper call your office! (yes, I know he is dead but with NOAA’s time machine we can still talk to him I bet)
Mark, they never were scientists in the first place. They were Political Hacks with the goal of destroying the USA.
Look at the timeline.
Also in 1988…
As a result of the false testimony given by Hansen and others the USA signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change on 12/06/92 and ratified it on 21/03/94.
Hansen worked for the US Government but was out right lying to Congress in order to produce results that will have major repercussions for all Americans – the “De-industrialization” of our country whether we agreed with it or not. Is this Tre@son? Remember, Hansen has called for trials of climate skeptics for “high crimes against humanity.” Shouldn’t we be calling for the same for him and his cohorts in Tre@son?
Curry used the word “bogus”.
She was proved wrong (bogus).
Where does that leave her?
HAHAHA. So raw data is ‘bogus’!
Pass me the joint. I need a toke badly. 🙂
I’ll skip the toke, but, Steve—Someone is accusing you that RAW DATA IS BOGUS??? SERIOUSLY? Are you KIDDING ME? WHAT THE H*** IS SCIENCE COMING TO?
Please be kind to Professor Curry.
She has been remarkably candid for a tenure-tracked academic scientist.
Nobody wants to finally admit that Stalin himself took control of science worldwide in the closing days of WWII.
But that admission may be required to restore integrity to government science and constitutional limits on governments.
Steve, I think the point of those who disagree with you is that an argument for some sort of sane adjustment regime is logical. That doesn’t imply that what NOAA or GISS are doing is defensible. On the other hand if you present what you do as a simple method to compare against NOAA and GISS as a ‘reality check’, I don’t see how such a modest argument could be criticized. The other point is that if your method agrees with an independent method of measurement, such as RSS, better than GISS or NOAA, then it’s a bit of case of the kettle calling the pot black.
There are 30 million USHCN daily temperature readings. Attempting to adjust them is just an excuse to introduce confirmation bias.
In any legitimate science, a Gaussian distribution of error would be assumed, and the data left alone.
+1000000000….
Your point about the Gaussian distribution is well taken and should be noted by those who criticize you by saying “but he didn’t do gridding!” or “simple averages are not correct if the dropped data has a systematic pattern!” Technically, both those criticisms are correct — but if the data has errors because of drop out, human error or location bias, then they are criticising very small errors and ignoring the GIGANTIC bias being shown in the “adjustments”. If your detractors are serious about their arguments against your simple raw data averages, then they have a duty to justify and explain why lost data and fabricated data have a systematic pattern. Without that explanation, it is completely unreasonable to think that for decades early in the century, bad data was overwhelmingly reading too high and had to be adjusted lower, and that now, for some strange reason, bad data is overwhelmingly reading too low and must be adjusted up.
It is like you are pointing out that the Emperor has no clothes, and they are responding, “Naked? The Emperor? That’s crazy! Of course he is not naked! Look! He is wearing a necklace!”
And they still have not given a believable reason why old data must be adjusted over and over and over and over…
What Steve is doing is simple yet devastating. He is showing the ‘Adjustments’ ALWAYS cool the past and warm the present and therefore create a slope in the temperature data that wasn’t there or was modest at best. He also shows that the 1980s & 1990s were nothing unusual.
If you want independent confirmations then ask the plants (the Köppen climate classification, widely used, vegetation-based empirical climate classification system.)
Map enlarge to look at the decadal movement of boundaries during the 20th C in the Midwest.
It agrees with Steven’s raw data and not with the Alarmists’ mutilated data.
Gail, here in north-eastern Florida, you will find towns with names like Orange Park, and Mandarin. One hundred years ago this area had major commercial citrus groves which shipped fruit all up the east coast. Today, you have to drive 80 or 100 miles south to find those groves. We get too many hard freezes here now to have large citrus groves.
I have pointed this out to CAGW supporters. Their response? “But – but – but 97%!!!! What about the 97%??!”
That pretty much agrees with the Koppen map of the Kansas area. I guesstimate ~ 100 to 150 miles.
The orange groves that used to line the Florida Turnpike north of Orlando are now mostly pine plantations (and, unfortunately, The Villages…). Did you know that at one time Rocklege, FL was the center of pineapple production for the US. Yep, climate change put a cool end to that. I’m waiting for the cool cycle to bring back some real, three day, freezes and take out the rest of the Australian Pines and Brazilian Pepper Trees. Also might bring back the rain to High Springs and fill the lakes back up and end the local drought. Maybe that will take a few more hurricanes, I don’t know.
Oooooooooooops. I meant Keystone Heights and not High Springs. Brain fade.
Actually the graph that Zeke put up at Politifact (to defend his position ironically), shows exactly that: The adjustments always cool the past, Maybe the guy is having second thoughts LOL
Basically, any and all data I could find, supports a much warmer past, for the part of WV where I live.
The area where I live has pretty much lost a month off the growing season from the early 1900s to now. Back in 1919 the ‘official’ last frost date was May 1. It’s now May 15th and we’ve had killing frosts much later than that at least 7 out of the last 10 yrs…the last 3 yrs all had the last Spring frost Memorial Day weekend or later! The ‘official’ 1919 first frost date was October 6. It’s now September 28.
The problem here is the “Adjustments” are always warmer for the present… cooler for the past… = Confirmation Bias…
What a joke..
Re: Will Nitschke (Jul 1 22:31), Don’t git it, does ya? Steve/Tony mostly compares data files with their earlier less adjusted selves.
Not with all theTampered Raw Data in the world the USA will be in the next round.
I never knew minutes take so long.
But now it’s over
I have been looking at Dr. Roy Spenser’s blog post titled “UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2014: +0.30 deg. C”. I note that he developed this graph from data provided by “http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt”. Does this data come from the same data you have reported on?
On 3/2013 Alaska was added to the 48 contiguous states an Australia was also added.
I have a “rice bowl” hypothesis of science that goes something like this. “If one puts rice in my bowl, I will starve if I bite the hand that feeds me.” Unfortunately, the rice being put in the bowl has been collected from the tax payer
Mark Twain actually wrote an essay on that subject.
http://grammar.about.com/od/classicessays/a/cornponetwain.htm
Politifact put up your reply.
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2014/jun/25/steve-doocy/foxs-doocy-nasa-fudged-data-make-case-global-warmi/#atfhead
BTW we now know that ZEke works for BEST (like Mosher) no wonder he is so bloody defensive. Cannot believe ANY of his postings any more just more modeling tripe.
Eliza,
It gets even better Mueller who lied and claimed he was a “skeptic” at one point but the data made him a believer owns a consulting business (Nice way to hide bribes BTW)
Muller & Assoc.:
http://www.mullerandassociates.com/index.php
A key word is SUSTAINABLE This ties to the UN Agenda 21, Ged Davis, Shell Oil and the IPCC.
Ged Davis wrote Sustainable Development (B1) scenario:
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=54&filename=889554019.txt
Ged Davis was an IPCC lead author and Shell Oil VP.
If you then go to the listing of the TEAM at Muller Assoc.
http://mullerandassociates.com/our-team/
you find. Arthur Rosenfeld, Former California Energy Commissioner among others.
http://mullerandassociates.com/our-team/arthur-rosenfeld/
Further down you find Marlan Downey
http://mullerandassociates.com/our-team/marlan-downey/
Click on Marlan Downey, Oil and Gas Executive
And guess what ? We find SHELL OIL!
“Marlan Downey, Oil and Gas Executive
….. Former President of the international subsidiary of Shell Oil…..”
More on the Shell OIl connections HERE
Steve, did you confront Judy regarding her “bogus” comment ? Curious what her response is if you did or do.
I left a comment there asking precisely so.
And Steve, keep your calm 🙂
Actually looking at the graph that Zeke put up there (politifact reply), it totally confirms your findings:.Without the adjustments there is no warming. What did Zeke say about that?
Well WUWT came to its senses…guess Curry will to…its kinda smells calling u bogus…just keep punching…come round 15 they all be down…not begging for a rematch 🙂
BTW the models here (I just picked South America where I live) are extremely accurate to 7 days at least in my experience over 2 years monitoring but of course they use real data.Its called meteorology.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/sa.00hr.html
You can see a huge mass of cold air approaching from Antarctica which will reach us in about 5 days, but it usually slips south due to the highs of the coast of Brazil.
Stupid question perhaps, but how do “they” claim to validate the adjustments (IOW, what confirmation do they have that the adjustments are valid)? Are there really no stations whose raw data is considered “correct” by these clowns? And how do they compare to the others?
That’s one of the problems…there is no confirmation that the adjustments are needed, let alone accurate.
And no, there are no stations that haven’t had long term, continuous data that haven’t had something done to them (even regular maintenance is ‘justification’ for an adjustment).
There is data that says their adjustments are wrong
Koppen Map (Movement of plant derived climate boundaries)
Study finds stream temperatures don’t parallel warming climate trend
Northern Hemisphere Snow cover
October: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201310.gif
November: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201311.gif
December: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201312.gif
January: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201301.gif
February: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201402.gif
Gail, I had a long reply to an earlier response of yours, but lost it due to a dropped connection. The general idea of it, though was, that I have data for my area showing a first/last frost date almost a month different than now, in the early 1900s. In 1917 it was Oct 6/May 1…now it’s Sept 28/May 15, with actual last frost for at least 7 of the last 10 yrs later than that (the last 3 yrs were Memorial Day weekend or later).
Which basically is paralleling the Koppen Map.
Weird I saw a comment of yours at
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/01/averaging-unhampered-raw-temperature-data-is-bogus/#comment-381101
Was that the comment?
Looks like WordUnimpressed Burped.
Their answer just published at WUWT.
Just posted this a WUWT re NCDC reply: As I mentioned before they will do NOTHING or admit nothing. That is why the time is past talking.They have an agenda AGW.. As an aside this is what we shouid worryibg about; Note the definite almost circular shape Antarctica is beginning to form with the extraordinary ice expansion (ABOVE ANOMALY)
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/antarctic.seaice.color.000.png
And there’s still several months worth of Southern Hemisphere winter left.
“Are the examples in Texas and Kansas prompting a deeper look at how the algorithms change the raw data?”
“No – our algorithm is working as designed.”
Unacceptable.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/01/ncdc-our-algorithm-is-working-as-designed/
Golly gee, this could never happen in climate science, could it?
AIDS scientist pleads not guilty to faking study
By DAVID PITT — Jul. 1, 2014 8:54 PM EDT
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — A former Iowa State University scientist pleaded not guilty Tuesday to charges alleging that he falsified research for an AIDS vaccine to secure millions of dollars in federal funding.
Dong-Pyou Han, 57, entered his not guilty pleas to four counts of making false statements during his initial court appearance in Des Moines federal court. Each count carries a maximum sentence of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/scientist-due-court-faked-aids-research-case
If the 1900s tampering trendline continued into the 21st century, 2013 U.S. temperatures were inflated by over half a degree.
POLITIFACT 2012: If you like your plan, you can keep your plan.
POLITIFACT 2014: …there remains no evidence that “NASA scientists fudged the numbers to make 1998 the hottest year to overstate the extent of global warming,”
Yeah… except for the graph at the top of your post.
They even have an “OUR RULING” section. What a bunch of pretentious, self-important, uninteresting hacks.