Global Warming Causes Simultaneous British Droughts And Floods

17 Responses to Global Warming Causes Simultaneous British Droughts And Floods

1. rah says:

   June 22, 2015 at 11:25 am

   Just the opposite of Texas.

   And apparently there is no such thing as weather anymore. It’s all climate.

   Reply
2. Scottish Sceptic says:

   June 22, 2015 at 11:40 am

   it would be really interesting to ask the public to end this sentence:

   Global warming causes …

   Most people would be unable to say anything other than “it gets warmer”. That is why they lost. Because you can cherry pick a few events and claim they are caused by “global warming”, but as time passes sooner or later you get precisely the opposite event and then they are stuck.

   This is why the Dead Parrot talks this December will be just like the Monty Python sketch:

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vuW6tQ0218

   Reply
   • Scottish Sceptic says:

     June 22, 2015 at 11:50 am

     …. just watching it again.

     I’m surprised alarmists have not said that the global temperature is only “resting”.

     Reply
3. cfgj says:

   June 22, 2015 at 1:20 pm

   That is what a more “sticky” jet stream will do. Welcome to the new normal?

   Reply
   • rah says:

     June 22, 2015 at 1:48 pm

     So your saying the current jet stream pattern is unprecedented? It hasn’t been like this before? Why not go look at the meteorological data from say the mid 50’s and tell us how the current pattern is so different from then?

     Reply
     • cfgj says:

       June 22, 2015 at 3:01 pm

       There’s some evidence indicating that the rapid arctic warming of the past decades is changing the jet-stream:

       https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/1/014005/article

       Reply
       • Gail Combs says:

         June 22, 2015 at 4:02 pm

         You left out the ozone.

         ABSTRACT
         …Meridional movements and intensity changes of the jet stream during this winter, as inferred from a statistical study of the 100-mb temperature field, are in accord with the conventional view that the jet stream is maintained by differential radiational heating and cooling of the ozone layer across the boundary of polar night….
         American Meteorological Society – AMS journal

         Sun, Ozone, Polar Jet and the Brewer-Dobson Circulation
         Let me see if I can trace the different steps via various papers.

         First step Ozone formation and destruction:
         First NASA has finally admitted that the sun is not constant and although the Total Solar Insolation is relatively constant the distribution of the energy among wavelengths is not. This is the critical point.

         In recent years, SIM has collected data that suggest the sun’s brightness may vary in entirely unexpected ways. If the SIM’s spectral irradiance measurements are validated and proven accurate over time, then certain parts of Earth’s atmosphere may receive surprisingly large doses of solar radiation even during lulls in solar activity.

         “We have never had a reason until now to believe that parts of the spectrum may vary out of phase with the solar cycle, but now we have started to model that possibility because of the SIM results,” …
         “Between 2004 and 2007, the Solar Irradiance Monitor (blue line) measured a decrease in ultraviolet radiation (less than 400 nanometers) that was a factor of four to six larger than expected.” (wwwDOT)nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/solarcycle-sorce.html

         2007 was before the deep solar minimum.
         “…A 12-year low in solar “irradiance”: Careful measurements by several NASA spacecraft show that the sun’s brightness has dropped by 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996….” science(DOT)nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum/

         NASA has also admitted different wavelengths of sunlight do different things in different parts of the atmosphere such as atmospheric water vapor, oxygen (O2) and ozone (O3).

         Solar Spectral Irradiance Data

         Research and Applications
         Because of selective absorption and scattering processes in the Earth’s atmosphere, different regions of the solar spectrum affect Earth’s climate in distinct ways. Approximately 20-25% of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is absorbed by atmospheric water vapor, clouds, and ozone, by processes that are strongly wavelength dependent. Ultraviolet radiation at wavelengths below 300 nm is completely absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere and contributes the dominant energy source in the stratosphere and thermosphere, establishing the upper atmosphere’s temperature, structure, composition, and dynamics. Even small variations in the Sun’s radiation at these short wavelengths will lead to corresponding changes in atmospheric chemistry. Radiation at the longer visible and infrared wavelengths penetrates into the lower atmosphere, where the portion not reflected is partitioned between the troposphere and the Earth’s surface, and becomes a dominant term in the global energy balance and an essential determinant of atmospheric stability and convection.
         lasp(dot)colorado.edu/home/sorce/data/ssi-data/

         THE KEY
         Sunlight + oxygen (O2) ===> O + O
         (Oxygen is disassociated in to two atoms and wants to glom onto something.)
         O + O2 ====> O3 (ozone)

         The reverse also happens in the atmosphere so the formation and destruction of ozone is dependent on the shifting of the amount of solar radiation at different wavelengths and NASA has shown those amounds DO SHIFT.

         http://www.oxidationsystems.com/products/ozone_formation.GIF

         image from: http://www.oxidationsystems.com/products/ozone.html
         CONTINUED
       • Gail Combs says:

         June 22, 2015 at 4:12 pm

         OZONE CIRCULATION

         CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GENERAL CIRCULATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL OZONE AS DETERMINED BY THE NIMBUS III SATELLITE INFRARED INTERFEROMETER SPECTROMETER

         Ozone is an important atmospheric trace constituent. The depletion of solar radiation between approximately 2000 and 3000 A is the result of strong absorption by ozone in the ultraviolet wave-lengths. The energy absorbed in this process is the prime source of thermal energy in the stratosphere. Because of this, ozone plays an important role in the large-scale motions of the atmosphere….

         ….A strong correlation was found between the meridional gradient of total ozone and the wind velocity in jet stream systems…..

         ….A study of the total ozone distribution over two tropical storms indicated that each disturbance was associated with a distinct ozone minimum….

         A comparison of time-longitude stratospheric radiance values at 60 S with values of the total ozone indicated that low (high) radiance values corresponded very closely with the low (high) ozone variations. The speed at which these ozone ‘waves’ progress eastward is greater in the winter hemisphere. The speed of eastward progression decreases as one approaches the lower latitudes in the winter hemisphere. In the equatorial region and in the Northern Hemisphere summer there is not a strong eastward progression of the ozone ‘waves’ but a westward progression….

         Changes in Ozone and Stratospheric Temperature:
         http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/features/200402_tango/ozone_temperature_graph.gif

         The graph above shows total ozone and stratospheric temperatures over the Arctic since 1979. Changes in ozone amounts are closely linked to temperature, with colder temperatures resulting in more polar stratospheric clouds and lower ozone levels. Atmospheric motions drive the year-to-year temperature changes. The Arctic stratosphere cooled slightly since 1979, but scientists are currently unsure of the cause….
         (wwwDOT)giss.nasa.gov/research/features/200402_tango/

         The blocking phenomenon in weather patterns is typical of a meridional pattern jet stream.
         Top-Down Solar Modulation of Climate: evidence for centennial-scale change

         The work presented here is consistent with the interpretation of a recently reported effect [25] of solar variability on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and European winter temperatures over the interval 1659–2010 in terms of top-down modulation of the blocking phenomenon [52, 53]. In fact, Woollings et al [26] show that the solar response pattern is, despite being similar in form to that of the NAO, signi?cantly different in that it reaches further east. These authors also show that open solar ?ux has a much stronger control over blocking events in this sector than the previously reported effect of F10.7 [55]. There is seasonality in the solar responses reported here. This is expected as modulation of upwards-propagating planetary waves in wintertime, and the associated stratosphere– troposphere interaction, is most widely believed to be the key mechanism [8, 11]. In addition, the tropospheric signature is a response of the eddy-driven jet streams, and these are at their strongest and most responsive in winter. While the results are presented here as annual means, the regression analysis was actually carried out on monthly mean data and thus takes this seasonality into account. The seasonal evolution of the F10.7 cm ?ux regression was described in detail by Frame and Gray [53] and this was not signi?cantly affected by using either the open solar ?ux FS nor the cosmic ray ?ux, M, instead of F10.7.”
         http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/3/034008/pdf/1748-9326_5_3_034008.pdf

         Then we get into the effect on the poles.

         Quasi-biennial oscillation and solar cycle influences on winter Arctic total ozone

         Abstract

         The total column ozone (TCO) observed from satellites and assimilated in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts since 1979 is used as an atmospheric tracer to study the modulations of the winter Arctic stratosphere by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle. It is found that both the QBO and solar forcings in low latitudes can perturb the late winter polar vortex, likely via planetary wave divergence, causing an early breakdown of the vortex in the form of sudden stratospheric warming. As a result, TCO within the vortex in late winter can increase by ~60 Dobson unit during either a solar maximum or an easterly phase of the QBO, or both, relative to the least perturbed state when the solar cycle is minimum and the QBO is in the westerly phase. In addition, from the solar maximum to the solar minimum during the QBO easterly phase, the change in TCO is found to be statistically insignificant. Therefore, the “reversal” of the Holton–Tan effect, reported in some previous studies using lower stratospheric temperature, is not evident in the TCO behavior of both observation and assimilation.
         onlinelibrary(DOT)wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021065/abstract

         The influence of solar variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower atmospheric temperatures and sea level pressure

         Abstract.
         We investigate an apparent inconsistency between two published results concerning the temperature of the winter polar stratosphere and its dependence on the state of the Sun and the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). We find that the differences can be explained by the use of the authors of different pressure levels to define the phase of the QBO.

         We identify QBO and solar cycle signals in sea level pressure (SLP) data using a multiple linear regression approach. First we used a standard QBO time series dating back to 1953. In the SLP observations dating back to that time we find at high latitudes that individually the solar and QBO signals are weak but that a temporal index representing the combined effects of the Sun and the QBO shows a significant signal. This is such that combinations of low solar activity with westerly QBO and high solar activity with easterly QBO are both associated with a strengthening in the polar modes; while the opposite combinations coincide with a weakening. This result is true irrespective of the choice of QBO pressure level. By employing a QBO dataset reconstructed back to 1900, we extended the analysis and also find a robust signal in the surface SAM; though weaker for surface NAM.

         Our results suggest that solar variability, modulated by the phase of QBO, influences zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes in the lower stratosphere and subsequently affect sea level pressure near the poles. Thus a knowledge of the state of the Sun, and the phase of the QBO might be useful in surface climate prediction.
         (wwwDOT)atmos-chem-phys.net/11/11679/2011/acp-11-11679-2011.pdf

         I have another dozen pages of information from peer reviewed studies but I will leave it at that.
   • Gail Combs says:

     June 22, 2015 at 3:13 pm

     A “sticky” jet stream is a meridional pattern

     In a meridional pattern the jet stream will have highly amplified troughs and ridges. Low pressure systems tend to move faster (west to east) when associated with a zonal flow. A highly meridional flow can cause atmospheric blocking and spells of much below and much above normal temperatures.
     http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/159/

     When did the earth see a meridional pattern jet stream?

     When the Wisconsin glaciation was taking place. The ‘Polar Vortex’ we have seen for the past couple of winters has the same shape as the Laurentide. Cold and lots of snow on the east coast but not on the west coast.

     http://www.intechopen.com/source/html/38637/media/image2.jpeg

     Position of the ice sheets in North America at 10,000 and 7,000 years before present.

     Europe area covered by ice

     http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/eur%2822-.gif

     Eurasia during most extreme part of full glacial conditions (17,000-15,000 14C y.a.).

     http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/euras%282.gif

     “This map concentrates on the time window slightly after the LGM, when aridity seems to have reached its most extreme point. Only slightly moister conditions prevailed for most of the period 22,000-14,000 14C y.a. (25,000-15,000 calendar years ago). A large area of extreme desert conditions existed across central Asia (dark red), surrounded by semi-desert (light red), under conditions much colder than the present-day. In the north, Siberia was colder and much more arid, with steppe-tundra (pink) and polar desert (grey). Ice masses (light grey) were present in north-western Siberia. In China, colder more arid conditions caused a retreat of forests, with grasslands (yellow) and open woodlands (medium green) in southern China and Japan. Forest steppe (violet) and conifer forest (blue green) may have predominated elsewhere. In south Asia, rainforest (darkest green) retreated and was replaced by grasslands (yellow) and monsoon forests and woodlands (lime-green). Scrub and open woodland (lighest green) probably existed in presently moist forest climates of Bangladesh and SW China.”

     Reply
   • DD More says:

     June 22, 2015 at 6:28 pm

     Okay cfgj, Your more “sticky” jet stream is the cause. Now be a bright boy and tell us all how taxing and controlling CO2 & power production is going to save us?

     Reply
     • Gail Combs says:

       June 22, 2015 at 7:30 pm

       It is NOT going to save US, it is going to save the elite and put them in full control of the human population as I said in comment. (It is presently waiting for Steve to dig it out of moderation.)

       Reply
       • darrylb says:

         June 23, 2015 at 3:16 am

         Gail,
         I am surprised that I can be so much in agreement with someone—noting the two salaries per family need. But then again, we are quite spoiled in terms of what we think we need.
         Ditto the elitist arrogance.

         The first I saw of the sticky jet stream meme , was when it had been attributed to warmer Arctic Ocean temps causing the vortex and therefore a blocking of a high pressure area which in turn caused New York to be hit by a ‘hurricane on steroids” nonsense..

         cfgj, I think it is good for you to comment here, because differences of opinion or understanding leads to greater understanding by everyone. I hope that no one takes the time for ad hominem attacks because that would only diminish efforts.
         If you could be more thorough in your line of thinking it would be good, and also
         better I think to use at least one of your given names.

         As I am a retired AP chem/physics instructor I find that what Gail keeps presenting makes me want to go back and teach at least one class.
         Most of it is new to me. Sometimes, even the units.

         The largest takeaway here I think is the fact that there has been an observance of variations in intensity within the EM spectrum which is significantly out of phase with the intensity of the spectrum as a whole. That fact has many ramifications.
         The largest ramification I would think, should be variations of waves just shorter than UV
         and of course IR.
4. Climatism says:

   June 22, 2015 at 1:42 pm

   Reblogged this on Climatism.

   Reply
5. Pathway says:

   June 22, 2015 at 3:17 pm

   Now that’s climate change.

   Reply
6. Billy Liar says:

   June 23, 2015 at 12:26 am

   Britons are always warned that there is more of whatever happened recently coming soon. Same as the US; the first rule of weather forecasting, you have a greater than 50% chance of being right if you forecast the same weather tomorrow as you had today.

   Reply
7. Adam Gallon says:

   June 23, 2015 at 8:10 am

   I suggest it’s the rise in population, especially in the south of the UK that’s the issue. More people, no more reservoirs – because the Greens won’t let anymore be built!

   Reply
8. Moors710 says:

   June 24, 2015 at 1:15 am

   If the climate changes, MOVE. The Sahara was nice during the last glacial period and Canada will have much more productive land if there is global warming.
   If you can really predict global warming or cooling, make some money buy real estate that is currently of low value and in the global changes you will make big bucks.

   Reply