Rapid Arctic Ice Growth

The Arctic melt season was several weeks shorter than normal this year, and the ice is growing very rapidly.

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One reason for this is that the people measuring the ice are missing large areas of ice. Note there is not supposed to be any ice near Alaska.

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However, satellite imagery shows that there is plenty of ice near Alaska, at concentrations slightly lower than 15%. That means the water is cold in those regions and will freeze up quickly.

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80 Responses to Rapid Arctic Ice Growth

    • Neal S says:

      Here is the first of those two

    • Neal S says:

      And now the second

      • Caleb says:

        Ice grows more swiftly when it has some sort of floating edge to act as a seed crystal. A quality of salt water (unlike fresh water) is that it sinks when it gets colder right up to the freezing point. Therefore chilled water is likely to sink before it can freeze, especially at temperatures only five or so degrees below freezing. (When it gets colder salt spray freezes, and then of course the falling spray floats because it is solid, and this acts as seed-crystals during flash freezes that skim over wide leads in a matter of hours, when it is -30°.) But now it is only -5°, so the more edges we have the faster the refreeze will be. All the less-than-15% ice Tony points out is starting points for growing sheets of ice.

        Also, though the refreezing is releasing latent heat, the two big storms that preceded the refreeze both melted churned ice and dumped snow in the water, which uses up the available heat (turning it into latent heat.) I believe Tony is right when he suggests the water between the bergs is colder. (And I have my doubts about the arctic SST maps I see referred to.)

        This is a very rapid, early and fascinating refreeze, if it keeps up.

        https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2016/09/14/arctic-sea-ice-the-2016-minimum/

  1. Tony, in case you have not noticed, NASA Worldview has CCOM-W1/AMSR2 ice concentration estimates at 12km and 25km resolution that can be overlayed on top of the MODIS 3-6-7 imagery. I’m fairly sure the AMSR2 is a microwave sensor similar to what is often used to determine sea ice extent, but I don’t know if any of the reporting agencies use this particular sensor.

    I overlayed the AMR2 12km ice concentration estimate on the Terra MODIS 3-6-7 image for a portion of the Arctic ocean north of Alaska from yesterday (for 9/13/16 below) and it’s obvious the AMSR2 microwave estimates do not do a very good job of estimating ice concentration in the fringe areas. There are plenty of sizable ice rafts and icebergs visible as pink areas, even underneath the thin low level cloud cover, that were not picked up by the AMSR2 analysis and should have been shown as ice concentration in the 10 to 50 percent coverage range.

  2. Brian D says:

    Early min this year similar to last year. And Tony is right about certain areas refreezing quicker because of where the ice is even in lower concentrations. Not only in the western arctic areas, but the Laptev, too.

    • Brian D says:

      Here’s a map from MASIE.

      • Brian D says:

        You’ll notice the increase in ice in the NW Passage. Winds have been blowing it in there from the basin, so there will be a much larger area of multi-year ice remaining than in recent years.

        • Brian D says:

          The above graph shows the CA as a whole, I’m just talking about the NW Passage, just in case someone wishes to say something about there being more ice in 2013-2014. That was spread around a bit more in those years.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          “Winds have been blowing it in there from the basin”

          Tell that to AndyG!

          • AndyG55 says:

            Its all right Jimbo, we all know the NW passage area was almost totally blocked this year. One tiny passage indicated well ahead by satellite charts.

          • Brian D says:

            The weather pattern recently has been conducive for ice to move into the passage. You can even see this with o-buoy 14’s track. It’s now in the passage.
            http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#overview/gpstracks

            Some of the ice there is native, but it has been moving in from the basin as well.

          • Jim Hunt says:

            Here’s that video again Andy. I expect if you ask nicely Brian will explain it to you. Slowly:

            https://youtu.be/nWXvIYcdGWM

            Can you see Brian’s O-Buoy 14 track?

          • Sunsettommy says:

            This is what Brian oz4caster wrote,that you ignore:

            “I overlayed the AMR2 12km ice concentration estimate on the Terra MODIS 3-6-7 image for a portion of the Arctic ocean north of Alaska from yesterday (for 9/13/16 below) and it’s obvious the AMSR2 microwave estimates do not do a very good job of estimating ice concentration in the fringe areas. There are plenty of sizable ice rafts and icebergs visible as pink areas, even underneath the thin low level cloud cover, that were not picked up by the AMSR2 analysis and should have been shown as ice concentration in the 10 to 50 percent coverage range.”

            Why is that,Deckhand Hunt?

          • Jim Hunt says:

            See above Tommy.

            The novelty of continually having to repeat myself is starting to wear off.

          • AndyG55 says:

            You truly are a SAD LONELY LITTLE PRAT, aren’t you Jimbo..

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Still you don’t address Brian’s comment at all,which has NOTHING to do with what you are talking about. He was responding to what Tony posted,not you.

            You keep deflecting to another area.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Link to one of your YouTube propaganda vids, hey Jimbo..

            Are you that lonely that you need visitors that badly ???

            You poor sad lonely little amoeba.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Your visits here are a classic PLEA FOR ATTENTION, even if it is from people who know you are total prat and a moron.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Another Jimbo propaganda video, correct

            Are you REALLY THAT LONELY that you need to do this???

          • Jim Hunt says:

            Bryan was asking about AMSR2. Brian mentioned winds blowing ice into the Northwest Passage.

            The video combines the two in one handy package. It demonstrates “the kindness of a caring, intelligent exchange of ideas”, which doesn’t seem to be very welcome in this neck of the woods. Does it?

            It’s not very welcome over at Caleb’s either.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Now that is TRULY SICKENING,

            Jimbo try to play the VICTIM card

            PUKE !!!

  3. Andy DC says:

    Ice got chopped up by an unusual series of summer storms, but now is rapidly re-solidifying.

    • Caleb says:

      All those chopped up bits of ice are acting as seed-crystals or nuclei for the growth of baby-ice.

      Long ago fishermen used to chop up starfish they despised, unaware each piece they threw overboard grew a new starfish. In like manner, all the bits and pieces of ice chopped up by the summer storms are now growing new ice.

      I am quietly astounded the recovery is so early and so swift. I’m still expecting a dip, before the recovery really begins. If it doesn’t happen, then we have a newsworthy event, which the usual suspects will, of course, fail to report.

  4. AndyG55 says:

    Wadhams would be interested..

    there is now over 1,000,000 km² MORE sea ice than at the same time in 2012.

    There’s that zero sea ice number of his. ;-)

  5. Brian D says:

    The Central Arctic region has seen a steady rise in extent due to the wind and refreeze underway there.

  6. Latitude says:

    more ice makes more ice…..faster
    There’s a lot of old ice there this year…..

  7. Nicholas Schroeder, BSME, PE says:

    Re: graphs

    Has everyone forgotten what “average” and “mean” imply? That for every data point and trend line below average there must be a corresponding trend line and data point above the average. Why not show it all? Saving ink?

    • Jason Calley says:

      As a related point, why on earth do the so-called “climate scientists” keep showing us charts where sea ice mean values are based on short 20 or 30 year periods? It appears apparent that there is a longer term cyclic nature to climate. If there is a known approximately 60 year cycle (and others as well) they need (at a very minimum) a full cycle or two before they start showing mean and deviation. This is like charting US temperatures from January through June and then claiming “We just passed through the three warmest months EVAH! We are all going to burn!”

      Would it hurt them so badly to just admit, “we need more data”?

  8. Gonzo says:

    This latest blog from the Northabout, ‘On that note, the North West Passage has already frozen behind us. So as it turns out we went through a very short window. The V Strait closed almost as soon as we went through, the same was true of Barrow”.

    @ Jim Hunt admit it they were how shall we say “very lucky”. The ice survived and will survive long after you and I are gone. The ice has been there always in larger or smaller quantities since “man” has been able to get there. That’s a longtime Jimmy. Yet you and the other alarmists base your “black swan” view of the ice on less the 40yrs of satellite observation. Wow you guys are smart!

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