NOAA massively tampers with US temperature data, to turn a 90 year cooling trend into a warming trend.
Their main excuse for doing this is Time of Observation Bias (TOBS.)
NOAA says that station operators in the past used to reset their min/max thermometers in the afternoon, and now they reset them in the morning. The theory being that resetting thermometers in the afternoon causes double counting of hot days, and resetting thermometers in the morning causes double counting of cold days. So NOAA cools the past and warms the present to compensate.
This is easy to test. I split the stations up into two groups – those that took readings in the morning during July, 1936 and those that took readings in the afternoon during July, 1936. I chose July 1936 because, it was an extremely hot month, which NOAA’s adjustments massively cool.
NOAA is correct that most stations took their readings in the afternoon during that month: 937 currently active USHCN stations were afternoon stations in 1936, and only 140 were morning stations. So lets see how the trends compare.
The two groups of stations show identical trends in temperature anomaly. The TOBS adjustment is fake. There is no indication of double counting.
Additionally, the trends in the frequency of hot days are also identical for the two groups, but the morning stations tend to have more hot days. This is because people in warm climates tend to work earlier in the morning.
This is confirmed by looking at the latitude of the stations. Morning stations average about one degree further south than afternoon stations.
Station history was obtained from this archived NOAA link : USHCN ORNL/CDIAC-87 NDP-019
In order to test out double counting of hot days, I selected two adjacent stations in Missouri. Mexico, Missouri took their readings in the morning during July, 1936 and Warrenton, Missouri took their readings in the afternoon that month.
According to TOBS theory, we should see more 100 degree days in Warrenton than in Mexico, but we see the opposite. Mexico, Missouri consistently shows more 100 degree days than Warrenton, though the patterns are nearly identical. There is no indication that TOBS theory has any basis in reality.
Morning station list :
FAIRHOPE 2 NE AL USC00012813 CHILDS AZ USC00021614 GRAND CANYON NP 2 AZ USC00023596 LEES FERRY AZ USC00024849 MIAMI AZ USC00025512 SACATON AZ USC00027370 SAFFORD AGRICULTRL C AZ USC00027390 YUMA CITRUS STN AZ USC00029652 GRAVETTE AR USC00032930 FAIRMONT CA USC00042941 HANFORD 1 S CA USC00043747 HEALDSBURG CA USC00043875 QUINCY CA USC00047195 SUSANVILLE 2SW CA USC00048702 TEJON RANCHO CA USC00048839 TUSTIN IRVINE RCH CA USC00049087 APALACHICOLA AIRPOR FL USC00080211 BARTOW 1SE FL USC00080478 BELLE GLADE FL USC00080611 FT LAUDERDALE FL USC00083163 MADISON FL USC00085275 PERRINE 4W FL USC00087020 TITUSVILLE FL USC00088942 HAWKINSVILLE GA USC00094170 QUITMAN 2 NW GA USC00097276 TIFTON GA USC00098703 ARROWROCK DAM ID USC00100448 CAMBRIDGE ID USC00101408 FENN RS ID USC00103143 HOLLISTER ID USC00104295 SALMON-KSRA ID USC00108080 CHARLES CITY IA USC00131402 FRANKFORT DOWNTOWN KY USC00153028 ALEXANDRIA LA USC00160098 PLAIN DEALING LA USC00167344 EASTPORT ME USC00172426 LEWISTON ME USC00174566 BLUE HILL MA USC00190736 ALLEGAN 5NE MI USC00200128 GREENVILLE MS USC00223605 NATCHEZ MS USC00226177 FARMINGTON MO USC00232809 MEXICO MO USC00235541 MTN GROVE 2 N MO USC00235834 UNIONVILLE MO USC00238523 KALISPELL GLACIER AP MT USC00244558 MOCCASIN EXP STN MT USC00245761 ALLIANCE 1WNW NE USC00250130 BEATRICE 1N NE USC00250622 CRETE 4ESE NE USC00252020 IMPERIAL NE USC00254110 NORTH LOUP NE USC00256040 SEWARD NE USC00257715 AUSTIN #2 NV USC00260507 FALLON EXP STN NV USC00262780 MCGILL NV USC00264950 MINA NV USC00265168 HANOVER NH USC00273850 LONG BRANCH OAKHURST NJ USC00284987 MOORESTOWN NJ USC00285728 PLAINFIELD NJ USC00287079 MTN PARK NM USC00295960 TULAROSA NM USC00299165 BATAVIA NY USC00300443 ELMIRA NY USC00302610 HEMLOCK NY USC00303773 INDIAN LAKE 2SW NY USC00304102 ITHACA CORNELL UNIV NY USC00304174 LAKE PLACID 2 S NY USC00304555 EMMONS NY USC00305113 OSWEGO E NY USC00306314 PORT JERVIS NY USC00306774 STILLWATER RSVR NY USC00308248 LUMBERTON NC USC00315177 DICKINSON EXP STN ND USC00322188 LANGDON EXP FARM ND USC00324958 MANDAN EXP STN ND USC00325479 NAPOLEON ND USC00326255 NEW ENGLAND ND USC00326315 WILLOW CITY ND USC00329445 FINDLAY WPCC OH USC00332791 GREENVILLE WTP OH USC00333375 PORTSMOUTH-SCIOTOVIL OH USC00336781 WAUSEON WTP OH USC00338822 BEND OR USC00350694 PILOT ROCK 1 SE OR USC00356634 ROSEBURG KQEN OR USC00357331 FRANKLIN PA USC00363028 JOHNSTOWN PA USC00364385 PALMERTON PA USC00366689 READING 4 NNW PA USC00367322 RIDGWAY PA USC00367477 STATE COLLEGE PA USC00368449 STROUDSBURG PA USC00368596 WARREN PA USC00369298 CALHOUN FALLS SC USC00381277 CAMDEN 3 W SC USC00381310 CHERAW SC USC00381588 COLUMBIA UNIV OF SC SC USC00381944 CONWAY SC USC00381997 DARLINGTON SC USC00382260 KINGSTREE SC USC00384753 ORANGEBURG 2 SC USC00386527 YEMASSEE 1 N SC USC00389469 RAPID CITY 4NW SD USC00396947 UNION CITY TN USC00409219 ALICE TX USC00410144 BALLINGER 2 NW TX USC00410493 BRENHAM TX USC00411048 CORSICANA TX USC00412019 DUBLIN 2SE TX USC00412598 EAGLE PASS 3N TX USC00412679 FLATONIA 4SE TX USC00413183 HASKELL TX USC00413992 LAMPASAS TX USC00415018 LLANO TX USC00415272 MCCAMEY TX USC00415707 MEXIA TX USC00415869 PECOS TX USC00416892 RIO GRANDE CITY TX USC00417622 TEMPLE TX USC00418910 LOGAN UTAH ST UNIV UT USC00425186 LEXINGTON VA USC00444876 ROCKY MT VA USC00447338 STAUNTON WTP VA USC00448062 ABERDEEN WA USC00450008 BLAINE WA USC00450729 CLEARBROOK WA USC00451484 LONG BEACH EXP STN WA USC00454748 POMEROY WA USC00456610 PORT ANGELES WA USC00456624 PULLMAN 2 NW WA USC00456789 RAYMOND 2 S WA USC00456914 SUNNYSIDE WA USC00458207 PARSONS 1 NE WV USC00466867 OSHKOSH WI USC00476330 MIDWEST WY USC00486195 NEWCASTLE WY USC00486660 WORLAND WY USC00489770 YELLOWSTONE PK MAMMO WY USC00489905
Afternoon station list :
BREWTON 3 SSE AL USC00011084 GAINESVILLE LOCK AL USC00013160 GREENSBORO AL USC00013511 HIGHLAND HOME AL USC00013816 SAINT BERNARD AL USC00017157 SCOTTSBORO AL USC00017304 SELMA AL USC00017366 TALLADEGA AL USC00018024 THOMASVILLE AL USC00018178 TROY AL USC00018323 UNION SPRINGS 9 S AL USC00018438 VALLEY HEAD AL USC00018469 AJO AZ USC00020080 BUCKEYE AZ USC00021026 CANYON DE CHELLY AZ USC00021248 FT VALLEY AZ USC00023160 HOLBROOK AZ USC00024089 KINGMAN #2 AZ USC00024645 PARKER AZ USC00026250 PRESCOTT AZ USC00026796 ROOSEVELT 1 WNW AZ USC00027281 SAINT JOHNS AZ USC00027435 SELIGMAN AZ USC00027716 TOMBSTONE AZ USC00028619 TUCSON WFO AZ USC00028815 WICKENBURG AZ USC00029287 WILLIAMS AZ USC00029359 BRINKLEY AR USC00030936 CONWAY AR USC00031596 CORNING AR USC00031632 EUREKA SPRINGS 3 WNW AR USC00032356 FAYETTEVILLE EXP STN AR USC00032444 MAMMOTH SPRING AR USC00034572 MENA AR USC00034756 NEWPORT AR USC00035186 PINE BLUFF AR USC00035754 POCAHONTAS 1 AR USC00035820 PRESCOTT 2 NNW AR USC00035908 ROHWER 2 NNE AR USC00036253 SUBIACO AR USC00036928 BERKELEY CA USC00040693 BLYTHE CA USC00040924 BRAWLEY 2 SW CA USC00041048 CEDARVILLE CA USC00041614 CHICO UNIV FARM CA USC00041715 CHULA VISTA CA USC00041758 COLFAX CA USC00041912 CUYAMACA CA USC00042239 DAVIS 2 WSW EXP FARM CA USC00042294 DEATH VALLEY CA USC00042319 ELECTRA P H CA USC00042728 FT BRAGG 5 N CA USC00043161 HAPPY CAMP RS CA USC00043761 INDEPENDENCE CA USC00044232 INDIO FIRE STN CA USC00044259 LAKE SPAULDING CA USC00044713 LEMON COVE CA USC00044890 LIVERMORE CA USC00044997 LODI CA USC00045032 MARYSVILLE CA USC00045385 MERCED CA USC00045532 MT SHASTA CA USC00045983 NAPA STATE HOSPITAL CA USC00046074 NEWPORT BEACH HARBOR CA USC00046175 OJAI CA USC00046399 ORLAND CA USC00046506 ORLEANS CA USC00046508 PASADENA CA USC00046719 PASO ROBLES CA USC00046730 PETALUMA AIRPORT CA USC00046826 REDLANDS CA USC00047306 SAN LUIS OBISPO POLY CA USC00047851 SANTA BARBARA CA USC00047902 SANTA CRUZ CA USC00047916 SANTA ROSA CA USC00047965 TAHOE CITY CA USC00048758 UKIAH CA USC00049122 VACAVILLE CA USC00049200 WASCO CA USC00049452 WEAVERVILLE CA USC00049490 WILLOWS 6 W CA USC00049699 YOSEMITE PARK HQ CA USC00049855 YREKA CA USC00049866 BOULDER CO USC00050848 CANON CITY CO USC00051294 CHEESMAN CO USC00051528 CHEYENNE WELLS CO USC00051564 COLLBRAN CO USC00051741 DEL NORTE 3ENE CO USC00052184 DILLON 1 E CO USC00052281 EADS CO USC00052446 FT COLLINS CO USC00053005 FT MORGAN CO USC00053038 FRUITA CO USC00053146 GUNNISON 3SW CO USC00053662 HERMIT 7 ESE CO USC00053951 HOLLY CO USC00054076 LAMAR CO USC00054770 LAS ANIMAS CO USC00054834 MANASSA CO USC00055322 MONTROSE #2 CO USC00055722 ROCKY FORD 2 SE CO USC00057167 SAGUACHE CO USC00057337 STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CO USC00057936 TELLURIDE 4WNW CO USC00058204 TRINIDAD CO USC00058429 WRAY CO USC00059243 FALLS VILLAGE CT USC00062658 GROTON CT USC00063207 STAMFORD 5 N CT USC00067970 STORRS CT USC00068138 DOVER DE USC00072730 GREENWOOD 2NE DE USC00073595 MILFORD 2 SE DE USC00075915 WILMINGTON PORTER RS DE USC00079605 ARCADIA FL USC00080228 DE FUNIAK SPRINGS 1 FL USC00082220 EVERGLADES FL USC00082850 FEDERAL PT FL USC00082915 FERNANDINA BEACH FL USC00082944 FT PIERCE FL USC00083207 INVERNESS 3 SE FL USC00084289 LAKE CITY 2 E FL USC00084731 OCALA FL USC00086414 SAINT LEO FL USC00087851 TARPON SPGS SEWAGE P FL USC00088824 ALBANY 3 SE GA USC00090140 BAINBRIDGE INTL PAPE GA USC00090586 BRUNSWICK GA USC00091340 COVINGTON GA USC00092318 DAHLONEGA 4WSW GA USC00092475 EASTMAN 1 W GA USC00092966 GAINESVILLE GA USC00093621 GLENNVILLE 3NW GA USC00093754 MILLEDGEVILLE GA USC00095874 MILLEN 4 N GA USC00095882 NEWNAN 7 WNW GA USC00096335 ROME GA USC00097600 TALBOTTON GA USC00098535 TOCCOA GA USC00098740 WARRENTON GA USC00099141 WASHINGTON 2 ESE GA USC00099157 WAYCROSS 4 NE GA USC00099186 W PT GA USC00099291 ABERDEEN EXP STN ID USC00100010 ASHTON 1N ID USC00100470 DWORSHAK FISH HATCHE ID USC00102845 GLENNS FERRY ID USC00103631 GRACE ID USC00103732 HAZELTON ID USC00104140 JEROME ID USC00104670 KELLOGG ID USC00104831 KETCHUM RS ID USC00104845 LIFTON PUMPING STN ID USC00105275 MACKAY LOST RVR RS ID USC00105462 MOSCOW U OF I ID USC00106152 NEW MEADOWS RS ID USC00106388 OAKLEY ID USC00106542 PAYETTE ID USC00106891 PORTHILL ID USC00107264 PRIEST RVR EXP STN ID USC00107386 SANDPOINT EXP STN ID USC00108137 ALEDO IL USC00110072 ANNA 2 NNE IL USC00110187 AURORA IL USC00110338 CARLINVILLE IL USC00111280 CHARLESTON IL USC00111436 DANVILLE IL USC00112140 DECATUR WTP IL USC00112193 DIXON 1W IL USC00112348 DU QUOIN 4 SE IL USC00112483 GALVA IL USC00113335 HARRISBURG IL USC00113879 HILLSBORO IL USC00114108 HOOPESTON IL USC00114198 JACKSONVILLE 2E IL USC00114442 LA HARPE IL USC00114823 LINCOLN IL USC00115079 MARENGO IL USC00115326 MCLEANSBORO IL USC00115515 MINONK IL USC00115712 MONMOUTH IL USC00115768 MORRISON IL USC00115833 MT CARROLL IL USC00115901 MT VERNON 3 NE IL USC00115943 OLNEY 2S IL USC00116446 OTTAWA 5SW IL USC00116526 PALESTINE IL USC00116558 PANA IL USC00116579 PARIS STP IL USC00116610 PONTIAC IL USC00116910 RUSHVILLE 4NE IL USC00117551 SPARTA 1 W IL USC00118147 CHAMPAIGN 3S IL USC00118740 WALNUT IL USC00118916 WHITE HALL 1 E IL USC00119241 WINDSOR IL USC00119354 ANDERSON SEWAGE PLT IN USC00120177 ANGOLA IN USC00120200 BERNE WWTP IN USC00120676 BLOOMINGTON INDIANA IN USC00120784 BROOKVILLE IN USC00121030 CAMBRIDGE CITY 3 N IN USC00121229 CHARLESTOWN 5 NNW IN USC00121425 COLUMBUS IN USC00121747 CRAWFORDSVILLE 6 SE IN USC00121873 DELPHI 2 N IN USC00122149 GOSHEN 3SW IN USC00123418 GREENCASTLE 1 W IN USC00123513 GREENFIELD IN USC00123527 HOBART 2 WNW IN USC00124008 HUNTINGTON IN USC00124181 LAPORTE IN USC00124837 MADISON SEWAGE PLT IN USC00125237 MARION 2 N IN USC00125337 MT VERNON IN USC00126001 OOLITIC PURDUE EX FM IN USC00126580 PAOLI IN USC00126705 PRINCETON 1 W IN USC00127125 RENSSELAER IN USC00127298 ROCHESTER IN USC00127482 ROCKVILLE IN USC00127522 RUSHVILLE IN USC00127646 SALEM IN USC00127755 SCOTTSBURG IN USC00127875 SEYMOUR 2 N IN USC00127935 SHOALS 8 S IN USC00128036 VEVAY IN USC00129080 VINCENNES 5 NE IN USC00129113 WASHINGTON 1 W IN USC00129253 WHEATFIELD IN USC00129511 WHITESTOWN IN USC00129557 WINAMAC 2SSE IN USC00129670 ALBIA 3 NNE IA USC00130112 ALGONA 3 W IA USC00130133 BELLE PLAINE IA USC00130600 CLARINDA IA USC00131533 CLINTON #1 IA USC00131635 ESTHERVILLE 4E IA USC00132724 FAIRFIELD IA USC00132789 FAYETTE IA USC00132864 FOREST CITY 2 NNE IA USC00132977 FT DODGE 5NNW IA USC00132999 INDIANOLA 2W IA USC00134063 IOWA FALLS IA USC00134142 LE MARS IA USC00134735 LOGAN IA USC00134894 MT AYR IA USC00135769 MT PLEASANT 1 SSW IA USC00135796 NEW HAMPTON IA USC00135952 ROCK RAPIDS IA USC00137147 ROCKWELL CITY IA USC00137161 STORM LAKE IA USC00137979 TOLEDO 3N IA USC00138296 WASHINGTON IA USC00138688 ASHLAND KS USC00140365 ATCHISON KS USC00140405 COLDWATER KS USC00141704 COLUMBUS KS USC00141740 EL DORADO KS USC00142401 ELLSWORTH KS USC00142459 FT SCOTT KS USC00142835 HAYS 1 S KS USC00143527 HORTON KS USC00143810 INDEPENDENCE KS USC00143954 JETMORE 8NNW KS USC00144087 LAKIN KS USC00144464 LARNED KS USC00144530 LAWRENCE KS USC00144559 LEAVENWORTH KS USC00144588 LIBERAL KS USC00144695 MANHATTAN KS USC00144972 MCPHERSON KS USC00145152 MEDICINE LODGE KS USC00145173 MINNEAPOLIS KS USC00145363 NORTON 9SSE KS USC00145856 OBERLIN KS USC00145906 OLATHE 3E KS USC00145972 OTTAWA KS USC00146128 SAINT FRANCIS KS USC00147093 SCOTT CITY KS USC00147271 SEDAN KS USC00147305 WAKEENEY KS USC00148495 ASHLAND KY USC00150254 BEREA COLLEGE KY USC00150619 CAVE RUN LAKE KY USC00152791 GREENSBURG KY USC00153430 HOPKINSVILLE KY USC00153994 LEITCHFIELD 2 N KY USC00154703 SHELBYVILLE 1 E KY USC00157324 WILLIAMSBURG KY USC00158709 WILLIAMSTOWN KY USC00158714 AMITE LA USC00160205 BASTROP LA USC00160537 BUNKIE LA USC00161287 CALHOUN RSCH STN LA USC00161411 COVINGTON 4 NNW LA USC00162151 DONALDSONVILLE 4 SW LA USC00162534 FRANKLIN 3 NW LA USC00163313 GRAND COTEAU LA USC00163800 HOUMA LA USC00164407 JENNINGS LA USC00164700 ST JOSEPH 3 N LA USC00168163 THIBODAUX 4 SE LA USC00169013 WINNSBORO 5 SSE LA USC00169806 ACADIA NP ME USC00170100 FARMINGTON ME USC00172765 GARDINER ME USC00173046 HOULTON 5N ME USC00173944 MILLINOCKET ME USC00175304 PRESQUE ISLE ME USC00176937 WOODLAND ME USC00179891 CAMBRIDGE WATER TRMT MD USC00181385 CHESTERTOWN MD USC00181750 CUMBERLAND 2 MD USC00182282 DENTON 2 E MD USC00182523 GLENN DALE BELL STN MD USC00183675 LAUREL 3 W MD USC00185111 MILLINGTON 1 SE MD USC00185985 OAKLAND 1 SE MD USC00186620 OWINGS FERRY LANDING MD USC00186770 PRINCESS ANNE MD USC00187330 ROYAL OAK 2 SSW MD USC00187806 SALISBURY MD USC00188000 WESTMINSTER MD USC00189440 WOODSTOCK MD USC00189750 AMHERST MA USC00190120 BEDFORD MA USC00190535 GREAT BARRINGTON 2N MA USC00193213 LAWRENCE MA USC00194105 NEW BEDFORD MA USC00195246 PLYMOUTH-KINGSTON MA USC00196486 PROVINCETOWN MA USC00196681 TAUNTON MA USC00198367 ADRIAN 2 NNE MI USC00200032 ALMA MI USC00200146 ANN ARBOR U OF MICH MI USC00200230 BIG RAPIDS WTR WKS MI USC00200779 CHAMPION VAN RIPER P MI USC00201439 CHATHAM EXP FARM 2 MI USC00201486 CHEBOYGAN MI USC00201492 COLDWATER ST SCHOOL MI USC00201675 EAST TAWAS MI USC00202423 FAYETTE 4 SW MI USC00202737 HART 3 WSW MI USC00203632 HILLSDALE MI USC00203823 IRON MT KINGSFORD WW MI USC00204090 IRONWOOD MI USC00204104 KALAMAZOO STATE HOSP MI USC00204244 MIDLAND MI USC00205434 CENTRAL MICHIGAN UNI MI USC00205662 MUNISING MI USC00205690 NEWBERRY CORRECTIONA MI USC00205816 OWOSSO WWTP MI USC00206300 S HAVEN MI USC00207690 STAMBAUGH 2SSE MI USC00207812 ADA MN USC00210018 ALBERT LEA 3 SE MN USC00210075 BAUDETTE MN USC00210515 CHASKA MN USC00211465 CLOQUET MN USC00211630 DETROIT LAKES 1 NNE MN USC00212142 EVELETH WWTP MN USC00212645 FAIRMONT MN USC00212698 FARMINGTON 3 NW MN USC00212737 FOSSTON 1 E MN USC00212916 GRAND MEADOW MN USC00213290 ITASCA UNIV OF MINN MN USC00214106 LEECH LAKE MN USC00214652 MILAN 1 NW MN USC00215400 MONTEVIDEO 1 SW MN USC00215563 MORA MN USC00215615 MORRIS W CNTRL RSCH MN USC00215638 NEW ULM 2 SE MN USC00215887 OLIVIA 3E MN USC00216152 PINE RVR DAM MN USC00216547 PIPESTONE MN USC00216565 ROSEAU MN USC00217087 ST PETER MN USC00217405 SANDY LAKE DAM LIBBY MN USC00217460 TWO HARBORS MN USC00218419 WALKER MN USC00218618 WINNEBAGO MN USC00219046 ZUMBROTA MN USC00219249 ABERDEEN MS USC00220021 BATESVILLE 2 SW MS USC00220488 BOONEVILLE MS USC00220955 BROOKHAVEN CITY MS USC00221094 CANTON 4N MS USC00221389 CLARKSDALE MS USC00221707 COLUMBIA MS USC00221865 COLUMBUS MS USC00221880 CORINTH 7 SW MS USC00221962 CRYSTAL SPGS EXP STN MS USC00222094 FOREST MS USC00223107 HATTIESBURG 5SW MS USC00223887 HOLLY SPRINGS 4 N MS USC00224173 KOSCIUSKO MS USC00224776 LAUREL MS USC00224939 LOUISVILLE MS USC00225247 MONTICELLO MS USC00225987 MOORHEAD MS USC00226009 PASCAGOULA 3 NE MS USC00226718 PONTOTOC EXP STN MS USC00227111 POPLARVILLE EXP STN MS USC00227128 PORT GIBSON 1 NE MS USC00227132 STATE UNIV MS USC00228374 UNIVERSITY MS USC00229079 WATER VALLEY MS USC00229400 WAVELAND MS USC00229426 WAYNESBORO 2 W MS USC00229439 WOODVILLE 4 ESE MS USC00229793 YAZOO CITY 5 NNE MS USC00229860 APPLETON CITY MO USC00230204 BOWLING GREEN 1 E MO USC00230856 BRUNSWICK MO USC00231037 CARUTHERSVILLE MO USC00231364 CLINTON MO USC00231711 CONCEPTION MO USC00231822 DONIPHAN MO USC00232289 JEFFERSON CITY WTP MO USC00234271 LAMAR 7N MO USC00234705 LEBANON 2W MO USC00234825 LEES SUMMIT REED WR MO USC00234850 LEXINGTON 3E MO USC00234904 LOCKWOOD MO USC00235027 MARBLE HILL MO USC00235253 MOBERLY MO USC00235671 NEOSHO MO USC00235976 ROLLA MISSOURI S T MO USC00237263 SPICKARD 7 W MO USC00237963 STEFFENVILLE MO USC00238051 SWEET SPRINGS MO USC00238223 TRUMAN DAM RSVR MO USC00238466 WARRENTON 1 N MO USC00238725 ANACONDA MT USC00240199 AUGUSTA MT USC00240364 BIG TIMBER MT USC00240780 BOZEMAN MONTANA STAT MT USC00241044 CASCADE 5 S MT USC00241552 CHINOOK MT USC00241722 CHOTEAU MT USC00241737 DILLON U OF MONTANA MT USC00242409 EKALAKA MT USC00242689 ENNIS MT USC00242793 FLATWILLOW 4 ENE MT USC00243013 FORKS 4 NNE MT USC00243089 FT ASSINIBOINE MT USC00243110 FORTINE 1 N MT USC00243139 GLENDIVE MT USC00243581 HAMILTON MT USC00243885 HEBGEN DAM MT USC00244038 HUNTLEY EXP STN MT USC00244345 JORDAN MT USC00244522 LIBBY 1 NE RS MT USC00245015 LIVINGSTON 12 S MT USC00245080 MALTA 7 E MT USC00245338 MILDRED 5 N MT USC00245668 NORRIS MADISON PWR H MT USC00246157 PHILIPSBURG RS MT USC00246472 PLEVNA MT USC00246601 RED LODGE MT USC00246918 SAINT IGNATIUS MT USC00247286 SAVAGE MT USC00247382 VALIER MT USC00248501 VIRGINIA CITY MT USC00248597 WEST YELLOWSTONE MT USC00248857 WHITE SULPHUR SPRING MT USC00248930 ALBION NE USC00250070 ASHLAND NO 2 NE USC00250375 ATKINSON 3SW NE USC00250420 AUBURN 5 ESE NE USC00250435 BEAVER CITY NE USC00250640 BRIDGEPORT NE USC00251145 BROKEN BOW 2 W NE USC00251200 CURTIS 3NNE NE USC00252100 DAVID CITY NE USC00252205 FAIRBURY 5S NE USC00252820 FAIRMONT NE USC00252840 FRANKLIN NE USC00253035 GENEVA NE USC00253175 GENOA 2 W NE USC00253185 GOTHENBURG NE USC00253365 HARRISON NE USC00253615 HARTINGTON NE USC00253630 HASTINGS 4N NE USC00253660 HAY SPRINGS 12 S NE USC00253715 HEBRON NE USC00253735 HOLDREGE NE USC00253910 KIMBALL 2NE NE USC00254440 LODGEPOLE NE USC00254900 LOUP CITY NE USC00254985 MADISON NE USC00255080 MC COOK NE USC00255310 MERRIMAN NE USC00255470 MINDEN NE USC00255565 OAKDALE NE USC00256135 PAWNEE CITY NE USC00256570 PURDUM NE USC00256970 RED CLOUD NE USC00257070 SAINT PAUL NE USC00257515 SYRACUSE NE USC00258395 TECUMSEH 1S NE USC00258465 TEKAMAH NE USC00258480 WAKEFIELD NE USC00258915 WEEPING WATER NE USC00259090 YORK NE USC00259510 BOULDER CITY NV USC00261071 GOLCONDA NV USC00263245 LOVELOCK NV USC00264698 SEARCHLIGHT NV USC00267369 WELLS NV USC00268988 DURHAM NH USC00272174 FIRST CONNECTICUT LA NH USC00272999 KEENE NH USC00274399 BELVIDERE BRG NJ USC00280734 BOONTON 1 SE NJ USC00280907 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERV NJ USC00281582 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW NJ USC00283029 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W NJ USC00283951 INDIAN MILLS 2 W NJ USC00284229 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE NJ USC00286055 AZTEC RUINS NM NM USC00290692 BELL RANCH NM USC00290858 CARLSBAD NM USC00291469 CHAMA NM USC00291664 CIMARRON 4 SW NM USC00291813 ELEPHANT BUTTE DAM NM USC00292848 FT BAYARD NM USC00293265 FT SUMNER NM USC00293294 GAGE NM USC00293368 JEMEZ SPRINGS NM USC00294369 JORNADA EXP RANGE NM USC00294426 LAS VEGAS WWTP NM USC00294862 LOS LUNAS 3 SSW NM USC00295150 LUNA RS NM USC00295273 MOUNTAINAIR NM USC00295965 OROGRANDE NM USC00296435 RED RIVER NM USC00297323 SAN JON NM USC00297867 SANTA ROSA NM USC00298107 SOCORRO NM USC00298387 SPRINGER NM USC00298501 STATE UNIV NM USC00298535 TUCUMCARI 4 NE NM USC00299156 ALFRED NY USC00300085 ALLEGANY SP NY USC00300093 ANGELICA NY USC00300183 AUBURN NY USC00300321 BRIDGEHAMPTON NY USC00300889 BROCKPORT NY USC00300937 CHAZY NY USC00301401 COOPERSTOWN NY USC00301752 CORTLAND NY USC00301799 DANNEMORA NY USC00301966 DANSVILLE NY USC00301974 FREDONIA NY USC00303033 GENEVA RSCH FARM NY USC00303184 GLENHAM NY USC00303259 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I remember questioning the validity of TOBS years ago on WUWT only to be jumped upon by Mosher.
Mosher.. a wet lettuce used car salesman. !
The TOBS adjustment is another great example of applying hypothesis without test and it has an obvious flaw: user interaction. I’m sure some measurements over consecutive days may show a double accounting but if you include the user observing this then they would adjust the afternoon time to later in the day. You would need the actual time of measurement to even start accessing TOBS.
However it looks like it’s neglible as you have shown
The whole point is they apply them to every day when you might, just might, get a few each month in the summer. Like all the other adjustments they make there can be a small technical justification for what they do, but they apply it wholesale to cool the past in line with CO2 and Model output.
This is an excellent result, Tony. You have falsified the hypothesis.
Another nail in the CAGW coffin.
Nice analysis. TOBS fixed a problem that in reality does not exist in any meaningful way.
They should simply retrofit the best sited stations with the same LIG thermometers as used in the 1930s/1940s and then read those thermometers with the same practices as used in the 1930s/1940s (including the same TOBS) at each weather station. The retrofit would go inside the same enclosures as being used today, and the LIG thermometers would be calibrated in Fahrenheit.
Within a few years (max 5 years) of having this parallel data (ie., along with today’s modern resistance temperature detectors/thermocuple automatic measurements) we would quickly know (i) what today’s raw temperature data is like compared to the 1930/1940s raw temperature data; and (ii) whether today’s modern equipment is reading waarm or cool compared to LIG thermometers.
Doesn’t the law of large numbers in any event largely get rid of this TOB ‘error’? Whether a day is warm or not at any given time is largely dependent upon cloudiness, or rain, and cloudiness or rain is likely to be random in nature and equally distributed between morning and afternoon.
Nobody who is riding the CAGW train would want this simple test because it would show that the whole TOB is part of the scam.
Sorry meant would NOT want ….
But… these Hoaxers AREN’T INTERESTED IN THE SCIENCE!! Its more about Politics, Control, Taxes… even a self-hatred of the 1st World Lifestyle, Funding, Grants, Guilt… and FEAR..
Real Science means continually testing, retesting, and Challenging a Theorem or Hypothesis… Goddard does that… the “Consensus” is overinflated on CO2 as the driver of Climate..
No. Each reading is a sample of one. It is representative only of the enclosure, the local air mixture, and the local energy fluxes that may or may not get converted to local kinetic energy. The thermodynamic temperature is the geometric mean of the constituents of the sample’s kinetic energy and *only* the kinetic energy.
In order to invoke the Law of Large Numbers, you’d need 30 or more identical thermometers sampling the same matter every time. Even then, the thermometer measures the local fluid’s thermal expansion or thermally induced electric potential difference, which is a good, but not exact, proxy for the temperature.
Also, averages are a description of a set. It isn’t the actual set. You can use the Law of Large Numbers to improve the precision of the estimate, but that does not mean that you can improve the accuracy of the estimate.
Another failing is the general lack of a detailed error analysis and a proper propagation of them, leading to overconfident statements and a general dampening of the variation.
Anyone have a link to a paper that proves TOBS?
Or claims that themrationale for it is justified?
From Tom Karl
I read lots of arm waving by Karl in that not much else
Waving the entire arm is too much work for climate scientist, with all the extra heat. It is mostly just hand waving at this point.
And finger wagging !!
Not really “proving” TOBS, but a paper that “justifies” it.
Attempts to justify it, and fails.
Absolutely fabolous work Tony!! Extremely important. Thank you.
This is fascinating stuff. Is TOBS the only factor in the adjustments or are there others as well that are provable/disprovable?
Also: is there a way to check temperature adjustments vs. satellite records for the recent years we’ve had satellites?
giss change historical temps based pn what their aglos produce which is why they make hundreds of adjustments to monthly historical data every year
This is excellent Tony. Many thanks for all your hard work here. Let’s see if any one of the consensus concentrates on the figures you’ve produced or you personally. If the latter then obviously they can’t deal with the former. Thanks again.
Another excellent test. Great post. :)
The “homogeneity ” adjustments are another can of worms. They purport to catch outliers by comparing them to “good” stations nearby, but it looks like there are so many “bad”stations, contaminated by urban heat island and micro-site issues, that the “good” stations are treated as the outliers and adjusted to match the bad ones.
I thought that science was calling bs on everything that was claimed as truth, and making the person asserting it prove it, and testing that. Now there is a false religion called climate science, upon which there is no debate. I am open to Mr. Heller being wrong, but I don’t see the other side willing to show evidence or enter debate as to otherwise. Hence, there is one conclusion I can make. I call bullshit. I want to see a debate of someone with Heller’s mental capacity on the warmist side debating Heller. Point for point.
” I want to see a debate of someone with Heller’s mental capacity on the warmist side debating Heller”
1a. You would be lucky if you could find one that wasn’t totally propaganda brain washed.
1b. You would be lucky if you could find one.
Pls confirm or correct my understanding of TOB influence. The ACTUAL influence is OPPOSITE the adjustment recently made to the temperature record. Per Tony’s charts comparing morning readings with afternoon readings, the morning readings are hotter most days. And, the morning readings yield more days above 90F.
Pls confirm or correct the following understanding. The ACTUAL TOB effect is OPPOSITE the adjustment recently made to the historical temperature record. As per Tony’s charts comparing morning readings with afternoon readings, morning readings are hotter most days. And, morning readings yield more 90+F days.
I’m not sure what the significance of this is? Seems irrelevant to the topic of climate change science.
In a way your right. But I’m sure that it isn’t the way you intended. Fabricating temperatures to create climate change on paper does not change the real climate a bit. What it does is offer fodder for a change in the political climate.
But denying that there is fraud while offering not evidence to counter the bloggers supported contention does make your comment have zero credibility.
Zerilos is correct, this data tampering isn’t climate chnage science, it is fraud. Thanks for pointing this out Ms Z!
To make sure I understand the point of this review of NOAA practices, I need to ask if the author is arguing that there should be no correction for time of day the temperatures were taken. Is he? I’m not a scientist and just trying to understand what I’m reading.
You don’t seem to comprehend that TOBS adjustment is a major adjustment that accounts for nearly ALL the rise in the NOAA temperature fabrication.
UHI is basically ignored. or treated as of zero consequence, even though they know that it has significant effects on the temperature at a large proportion of surface data station.
The whole NCDC/NOAA surface temperature, as well as GHCN which feeds into other so-called surface temperature, is a monumental FARCE, based on anti-science agenda-driven adjustments, and data fabrication.
Please re-read the original post carefully. Tony explains the issue very well.
With the “max-min” systems used for a long time, the observer could read the maximum and minimum temperatures that had occurred since the last time these values were reset. These values were recorded by the observer.
There is a potential issue here. If the observation time were late afternoon, as was common (when the observer got home from work usually), the present temperature was not down much from the peak for the day. Let’s say the peak temperature for the day was 86F (30C), and the temperature at reset was 83F.
The next day was cooler, only reaching 77F (25C). But if the observer had done nothing since the previous afternoon, the “max” reading would be 83F. This kind of double counting has the potential for inflating temperature readings.
But those who say this is a real issue have to believe that the volunteer weather enthusiasts (“weather geeks”) who manned these stations did not realize this was a problem, and did not reset the max reading in the morning. The evidence is overwhelming that most of them did.
I don’t know if you have time to revisit your old posts for comments. Anyway when in comes to TOBS adjustments I think there is one important factor you have not considered or at least written about.
The “pro” scientists claims there is a Time of Day bias they can gracefully compensate for, however they fail to mention the bias they generate by calculating daily average as (t_min+t_max)/2 instead of the real average using all readings in a day. I do appreciate they don’t have better resolution for the history data but never the less that bias is there and it impacts how correct TOBS adjustments can be.
I did a comparison for my Oregon weather station using all measurements I have since 2014 till today. The station is located in Stockholm Sweden.
NOAA loves averages because they have the power to erase any errors ,-), so looking first at averages for my station this bias mostly increases the monthly average (by upto 0.6C) but it differs by a lot month by month and also between years. When looking day by day it fluctuates dramatically +/- 2C.
Looking at the stations Tony used, Mexico and Warrenton, NOAA has simply put a TOBS mask depending on the month and time the station was read (7am vs. 5pm for the 1936 example). The same mask is used at least 1932-1940. During this period the bias I mention above will have fluctuated far more than the TOBS figures they use in the mask.
Let me know if this is of any interest and I can share the readings and graphs in the cloud.