D-Day Approaches For Climate Alarmists

I warned alarmists at the beginning of the month that their day of reckoning would come near the end of May, and it is nearly here. Arctic sea ice volume is the highest in five years, and much higher than 10 years ago. Ice is melting very slowly, and volume is getting very close to the “normal” line.

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41 Responses to D-Day Approaches For Climate Alarmists

  1. terak says:

    How’s the denial of evolution been going on lately? Missed the reckoning 120 years ago?

    • tonyheller says:

      Unable to dispute data and failures of their predictions, climate alarmists invariably attempt to create mindless straw man arguments to change the subject.

    • RAH says:

      Willful cognitive dissonance is a prime, even a defining characteristic of the vast majority of the alarmist beasts. The least intelligent tend to start to blather about totally unrelated subjects in lame attempts to insult and deflect when confronted with facts that counter their views. But they are usually just as ignorant about the subject to which they try to deflect to as they are about the subject they are trying to avoid by their deflection.

    • Gator says:

      Ms Terak is clearly the product of a failed school system, and believes skepticism has no place in science.

    • RW says:

      Wow. Terak <- what a total idiot.

    • sunsettommy says:

      Terak, you think Tony is around 150 years old?

    • kuhnkat says:

      terak, still waiting for some of that SCIENTIFIC evidence of evolution.

      Would be happy for you to bring in someone with actual knowledge to present it as you apparently can’t even handle weather.

    • arn says:

      How”s the parroting going on lately?
      I heard your masters call you the best bird in their cage
      for trading their ice age scare of the 70ies for their AGW
      without ever asking why nor bothering about climate gate 1,climate gate 2 or the fact that ALL their bold prodictions completely failed(arctic sea + polar bears extinct,manhattan under water).

      And now,after a supercold winter((which your pee-sized brain did not bother)) that mustn’t exist according to your priests you really dare to creep out from under your stone?
      Smart & Tough- i adore you.
      Being an ignorant buttkisser with zero original thoughts must be great-
      one never runs out of chocolat.Hope you’ll enjoy the taste.

    • AndyG55 says:

      where did this terak idiot come from ?

      Seems he definitely missed out on evolving a working brain.

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      Ms Terak, did you develop your scientific argumentation by binge-watching Mean Girls?

    • AndyG55 says:

      terak is trying to show he is a prime case study for DEVOLUTION. !!

    • JL says:

      The “evolution is real so that means the climate scam must be real” non-argument. Very scientific

    • Andy DC says:

      When is the last time anyone on the blog talked about evolution? If you want to talk about evolution or lack thereof, you have come to the wrong blog.

  2. Bill_W says:

    It may never hit the average Tony. Last few times we have seen this, they suddenly came up with a new algorithm to process the data or stopped displaying the 30% sea ice data. Sad.

    • Gator says:

      This is what happens when you create fake averages.

    • flow ir in says:

      this time they are focussing on ice extent, at its lowest evah!
      But they’ve moved the goalposts a little, now ice extent is based on 15% occupancy.
      I wonder who gets the job of testing each % cover to find out which one gives the required alarmism?

  3. Steven Fraser says:

    The ‘average’ they show Starts with 2004, but they had data, with lower values, for 2003. If included, averages would be lower.

    2018 decline is very slow, so slow that it should be higher than 2009 in tomorrow’s report, based on current rates of loss, making 2018 #7 highest for the date.

  4. Cam says:

    And temperatures above 80 North are just slightly below normal for this time of year so melt should continue to be slower going forward.

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    • Caleb says:

      All you say is true but not all that much of the melt is due to air temperatures. Most melting is from below. Mostly either southern currents send a branch north under the ice, or winds blow the ice south to the southern currents.

      Watch the AMO and PDO this summer. They are both lower than last year. If they don’t rise there is likely to be more ice. I’m not sure how the dynamics work, but a low PDO means more ice on the pacific side, while a low AMO means more ice on the Atlantic side.

      • Cam says:

        Depends. There has been some work done on melt ponds on the surface of the ice and their relation to how much the ice will recede in a season. Fewer ponds, more ice stays, so a below normal air temperature should result in less of these ponds forming.

  5. Caleb says:

    The increase in volume is surprising, and also makes mess of a primary Alarmist talking-point.

    I assume they had to come up with an explanation for the Pole failing to become ice-free. So they said the extent graph didn’t matter. There might be the same area, but the ice was “thinning.” That was shown by the low volume graph. The confidently predicted the ice would get thinner and thinner. FAIL. So now I am waiting to hear what their next excuse will be.

  6. gregole says:

    Wait. More ice in the Arctic than there was ten years ago? Aren’t we supposed to be ice-free by now? This is 2018.

    • Disillusioned says:

      There’s been an adjustment to the predictions. “Ice-free” now means ~4 million km2 of ice sticking around for winter build-out at the end of August.

      Be afraid. Be very afraid.

  7. Steven Fraser says:

    Update for may 26th nimbers: 2018 is now higher than 2009, makig it #7 for the date.

    #6 is 2010, and has been declining about 2x as fast as 2018. At current rates, 2018 will pass 2010 in 7-10 days.

  8. Griff says:

    The ice is just above the 2016 (lowest for this time of year) extent and melting at the same rate.

    https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png

    Once we get into June/July/august I predict this line of posts will mysteriously disappear until after the minimum

  9. RAH says:

    We talk volume or IOW the actual amount of ice and you talk about extent. Typical alarmist BS.

  10. LexingtonGreen says:

    Going off topic a bit, but I was Looking at the number of us tornadoes. Is this going to be an all time record low? I would love to say carbon producers should get tax credits for keeping us safe, but the cold year in the us is just an anomoly. But it would still be nice to rub in the face of the alarmists.

  11. donald penman says:

    looking at the dmi drift map The Arctic sea ice does seem to be compacting rather than melting.
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icedrift_anim/index.uk.php

  12. RAH says:

    D-day approaches indeed. DMI volume is now approaching the mean.
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180529.png
    Extent is approaching the -2 standard deviation border.
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
    Just as one would expect when there is thicker, older, compacted ice. Ice the alarmists claim is not there.

    • Steven Fraser says:

      Update for May 29 DMI ice volune:

      2018 is now 100.07% of the average volume of the 16 years of DMI reportinG for this date. Still #7, and getting closer to number six .

      The rolling, seven-day average decline is second lowest in the record.

      Stay tuned!

      • neal s says:

        I wonder what Griff will complain about when the ice volume is above the 16-year average volume. Will he still maintain that it will be ‘ice free’ come summer? Will he still claim that the North West passage is easily navigable to ships of any size without ice-breaker assistance?

  13. Steven Fraser says:

    30th: Still #7, and at 100.25% of the 16- year DMI volume average.

    Using DMI’s 2004-2013 (graphed) average, 30th was 99.21%.

    Stay tuned!

    • Caleb says:

      Staying tuned. This summer might be fun!

      Have you noticed how the snow is late to melt in northeast Siberia?

      • Steven Fraser says:

        Yes, I have! Interesting natural variations this year.

      • Steven Fraser says:

        I also should say that the gap between 2018 and the next highest year, 2010, has been reduced by almost half since 2018 became
        #7.

        The next few days should tell us more.

  14. Steven Fraser says:

    31st: Still #7, 100.41% of the average DMI ice volume for the 16 years reported, and 99.46% of the average DMI-charted 2004-2013 years.

    The gap between 2018 and the next higher year, 2010, has narrowed from 324 cu km to 159 cu km in the past 3 days.

    Stay tuned!

  15. Andy says:

    “I warned alarmists at the beginning of the month that their day of reckoning would come near the end of May, and it is nearly here”

    Actually you were talking about ice extent in that post

    “Arctic sea ice is melting much slower than normal this spring. Normally, most of the melt during May is in the Bering Sea, but the ice has already melted there – nearly guaranteeing ongoing slow reduction in sea ice extent over the next month. By the end of the month, ice extent should be close to the 1981-2000 mean.

    And did a little graph with an extrapolation

    https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en-12.png

    (from https://realclimatescience.com/2018/05/disaster-looms-for-climate-alarmists-2/#comment-94460)

    which proved to be totally inaccurate …. again.

    You are now ignoring sea ice extent and just talking about sea ice volume as it more shows that your were “right ” again. This is not scientific, it is cherry picking data to force an argument.

    I look forward to following the sea ice volume posts this summer now ice extent no longer exists :)

    Andy

    • AndyG55 says:

      YAWN !!

      Ice volume is HIGHER than any of the last 10 years

      and its melting VERY slowly.

      Sorry you are IGNORANT about the fact that extent is caused by winds, and this year they are pushing the ice together

      poor little andy, you should be EMBARRASSED by your ignorance..

      But I bet you are not.

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