Real Climate Science

09 Jul 1988 – SATURDAY MAGAZINE The big heat is on

h/t to Andy Oz

web.archive.org/web/19991105161224/http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/ZonAnn.Ts.txt

James Hansen’s research shows that a mini-runaway, pushing global temperatures to 10-12 degrees C above the Holocene, is all but certain under continuous, business as usual, fossil fuel burning through 2100.

James Hansen and the Three Categories of the Runaway Greenhouse: Earth Uninhabitable for Humans at ~5,000 Gigatons Fossil Fuel Burned | robertscribbler

Alarmists and lukewarmers like Will Nitschke tell us that we are not on Hansen’s BAU track, yet Hansen keeps saying that we are on BAU. Why are they arguing with the world’s greatest climatologist?

sea level rise of many meters should be anticipated with the global warming of at least several degrees Celsius that is expected under business-as-usual (BAU) climate scenarios 

www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf

Jan 22-feb  5  could be one of coldest periods plains east in last  50 years, if not longer

Superbowl is February 2, outdoors at Chris Christie’s  “I Shouldn’t Have Listened To Al Gore” Stadium

Hansen’s 1988 definition, which has been deleted from the GISS website and blocked from the web archive

Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, scenario B assumes a reduced linear growth of trace gases, and scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000.

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf

So what has actually happened since 1988? Definitely not scenario C. Definitely not scenario B.

Hansen referred to Scenario A as the Business As Usual scenario.

Popular Science – Google Books

It astonishes me that people are still trying to play the scenario B shell game.

Hansen’s 1988 BAU forecast for scenario A was a complete disaster. They weren’t even in the ballpark.

Popular Science – Google Books

This is what Dana shows in his 100% fraudulent graph. Nothing about this graph resembles reality.

SIGNIFIGANT RISE IN SEA LEVEL NOW SEEMS CERTAIN

February 18, 1986

MANY scientists are so sure that the sea level will rise visibly in the coming decades that they are advising planners to adopt new strategies now. A predicted rise in sea level of one foot within the next 30 to 40 years will drive much of the Atlantic and Gulf shoreline inward by a hundred feet and some of it by more than a thousand feet, according to marine geologists.

SIGNIFIGANT RISE IN SEA LEVEL NOW SEEMS CERTAIN – NYTimes.com

Not only did Dana use the wrong scenario (B when it should have been A) but he plotted scenario B too low (red line)

GISS is now 0.4C below scenario B, and Dana shows it 0.2 C below.