Real Climate Science

The 2012 El Nino is looking pretty sickly at this point.

sst_anom.gif (800×600)

The USHCN2 “raw” monthly temperature data shows that the period ending June, 2012 is the hottest twelve month period on record in the US, beating 1934 by a little over 0.1 degrees.

This may be bogus, because the 1930s USHCN2 monthly “raw” data is about 0.2 degrees lower than the daily raw data.” For example, the monthly data shows 11/1934 as 55.281, but the daily data shows it as 55.4316  – which would make the period ending 11/1934 the hottest 12 month period on record.

Most of the hottest 12 month periods in the USHCN2 database occured during the 1930s. USHCN2 only goes back to 1895, and does not include the 1884/1885 warm period which the daily temperature records show was the hottest.

With cooler temperatures prevailing now, it is unlikely that the raw full year 2012 will beat 1934.

Month	 Year	 Temperature 
6	2012	55.4049
5	2012	55.3776
11	1934	55.281
8	1934	55.1797
3	1935	55.1331
12	1921	55.1261
7	1934	55.0692
11	1921	55.0463
4	2012	55.0413
12	1998	55.0358
10	1934	54.9995
1	1932	54.999
12	1934	54.9941
12	1931	54.988
5	1934	54.9688
10	2000	54.9686
2	1932	54.939
2	1935	54.9334
4	1999	54.9253
6	1934	54.9238

Month   Year    Temperature												
9	1921	56.604														
5	1932	56.5879														
12	1921	56.4855														
6	1932	56.4764														
8	1921	56.4331														
2	1932	56.4313														
8	1932	56.382														
11	1921	56.3732														
1	1932	56.3582														
7	1932	56.3444														
7	1921	56.2751														
4	1932	56.187														
10	1921	56.1813														
3	1932	56.1789														
12	1931	56.1366														
1	1939	55.8532														
1	1922	55.8125														
9	1932	55.7769														
6	1921	55.7655														
3	1935	55.5998														
4	1954	55.5075														
2	1922	55.5068														
11	1931	55.4315														
5	1921	55.3695														
9	1954	55.3597														
10	1932	55.3459														
12	1938	55.3423														
4	1935	55.3042														
12	1998	55.3014														
1	1947	55.2904														
3	1942	55.2253														
4	1942	55.1974														
8	1954	55.1777														
7	1954	55.1751														
2	1954	55.1458														
2	1939	55.1436														
11	1934	55.1234														
12	1946	55.1227														
1	1923	55.1187														
5	1954	55.0905														
10	1954	55.0703														
11	1953	55.0563														
11	1938	55.0488														
4	1921	55.0466														
2	1992	55.0254														
10	1953	55.0228														
11	1998	55.0182														
6	1954	55.0114														
8	1934	54.9915														
12	1953	54.9867

We have been bombarded this week with claims that the last 12 months were the hottest on record in the US. I can’t verify that claim yet, but I did calculate the same metric through the end of 2011.

The table below shows the top 25 hottest twelve month periods in the USHCN daily raw temperature database, through the end of 2011, which is the last date available. Records only get counted if they have valid data for the previous 12 consecutive months.

All of the 25  hottest twelve month periods occurred before 1936, except for one in 1998.

Month   Year    12 Month Average Temperature
1	1885	55.778
11	1934	55.4316
12	1884	55.3907
8	1934	55.3385
11	1884	55.3222
10	1884	55.2937
3	1935	55.2907
2	1885	55.2879
12	1921	55.2135
7	1934	55.2126
10	1934	55.1559
12	1934	55.1296
11	1921	55.1279
12	1931	55.1152
1	1932	55.1064
5	1934	55.1029
3	1885	55.0813
2	1935	55.071
6	1934	55.0658
2	1932	55.0404
9	1934	55.0215
12	1998	55.0111
5	1932	54.9886
9	1921	54.9852
4	1935	54.9837

Barack Obama | Please Join Obama at a Reception in Shanghai

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/18.jpg

The ice is about six feet thick at the North Pole, and if it continues to melt at its current rate will only be six feet thick come mid-September.

No, the Cold Doesn’t Mean No Global Warming

Jan. 8, 2010

Bottom line — fast and simple? Three points:

 1. Weather is not climate.

 2. Manmade global warming means less frequent cold snaps (not none at all) and more frequent heat waves — just as we’ve been having.

 3. You know (don’t you?) about the record high temperatures this week in Washington State, Alaska and Bulgaria in the Northern Hemisphere — plus, down south, the record-breaking high temperatures in New Zealand, and the second hottest year on record (after 2005) in Australia?

Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, agreed.

“Weather is chaotic. It has an infinite amount of variability, and that’s just the nature of weather,” he said. “Weather dominates on a day-to-day basis, and there will be warmer periods and cooler periods. But it’s the overall pattern that gives you the climate.”

Weather vs. Climate: Cold Winter Snap Does Not Mean No Global Warming – ABC News

But in 2012, Washington State, Alaska, Bulgaria, New Zealand, and Australia all had very cold winters. So that must prove global cooling? The point is all moot anyway, because Trenberth now believes that weather is climate.

2012

(WASHINGTON) — If you want a glimpse of some of the worst of global warming, scientists suggest taking a look at U.S. weather in recent weeks.

Horrendous wildfires. Oppressive heat waves. Devastating droughts. Flooding from giant deluges. And a powerful freak wind storm called a derecho.

Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in fire-charred Colorado, said these are the very record-breaking conditions he has said would happen, but many people wouldn’t listen. So it’s I told-you-so time, he said.

This U.S. Summer Is ‘What Global Warming Looks Like’ – TIME

Next time it turns cold in Colorado, Trenberth will most certainly go back to believing that weather is not climate. Because he is an expert.

www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

The Arctic Basin never starts melting until day 150, and it stops melting by day 260.  That is a maximum of 110 days of melt, and then the sun sets and the ocean  starts freezing again. The only way you could get to an ice free Arctic would be to keep the sun up high in the sky until Christmas.

Alarmists need to step up their game and quit acting like complete morons.

In an effort to spur Romney to release the most trivial and meaningless details of his business career, Barack Obama has released all of his employment and business records.

Records begin —————————-

1991

Born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii’

2004

“Kenyan-Born Obama All Set for US Senate

2007

http://web.archive.org/web/20070403190001

Records end —————————-

His literary agent now believes that she made the whole thing up, didn’t bother to check her sources, republished the same misformation numerous times over the next 17 years, and that no one Obama knew noticed her repeated errors for the next 6,209 days.

Purely coincidentally, The Associated Press simultaneously made up the same story.

The press of course did not find this story interesting, unlike the important details of Romney’s mundane business affairs.

Nashville, Tennessee has received almost six inches of rain so far this month, and is listed by NOAA as being under an extreme drought.

weather.com – Map Room – Satellite Map, Weather Map, Doppler Radar US Drought Severity

NOAA is rapidly becoming a complete joke.