Real Climate Science

Polar ice cap melting away in 2008 ?

How low will they go? Putting a date on the melting of the Arctic ice cap has been a popular prediction game among scientists of late; in recent months, we’ve heard estimates ranging from 2030 to as early as 2013.

The latest salvo comes courtesy of Xinhua, which reports that Olav Orheim, the head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, is placing his money on this summer. Noting that its ice sheet had reached a historical low of 3m sq. km last summer – it covered around 7.5m sq. km as recently as 2000 – Orheim told Xinhua that “if Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away.”

Polar ice cap melting away in 2008 ?

“By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”

• Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

http://www.ihatethemedia.com/

Hansen says that 350 PPM CO2 is safe and that we must return there.

The last time CO2 was at 350 ppm was in 1988 – which was a very safe year.

Popular Science – Google Books

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.

“So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

Yes, 2013 was a very conservative projection. More likely the Arctic will be ice free by 2011 or 2012.

Professor Peter Wadhams from Cambridge University, UK, is an expert on Arctic ice. He has used sonar data collected by Royal Navy submarines to show that the volume loss is outstripping even area withdrawal, which is in agreement with the model result of Professor Maslowski.

“Some models have not been taking proper account of the physical processes that go on,” he commented

“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly

Hansen past the tipping point

James Hansen of NASA is another brave exception, defying government gag orders. Hansen told Reuters, quote, “”The reason so much (of the Arctic ice) went suddenly is that it is hitting a tipping point that we have been warning about for the past few years.”

The Radio Ecoshock Show: December 2007

       Arkansas	  BRINKLEY       	 8/10/1936	108	74
       Arkansas	  CONWAY         	 8/10/1936	115	69
       Arkansas	  CORNING        	 8/10/1936	102	71
       Arkansas	  EUREKA SPRINGS 	 8/10/1936	112	74
       Arkansas	  FAYETTEVILLE EX	 8/10/1936	109	68
       Arkansas	  GRAVETTE       	 8/10/1936	112	65
       Arkansas	  MAMMOTH SPRING 	 8/10/1936	103	69
       Arkansas	  MENA           	 8/10/1936	112	76
       Arkansas	  NEWPORT        	 8/10/1936	106	70
       Arkansas	  PINE BLUFF     	 8/10/1936	108	79
       Arkansas	  POCAHONTAS 1   	 8/10/1936	99	71
       Arkansas	  PRESCOTT 2 NNW 	 8/10/1936	112	76
       Arkansas	  SUBIACO        	 8/10/1936	117	81

The hottest day in Subiaco during this summer’s “unprecedented heat wave” has been 106 degrees – eleven degrees cooler than 1936.

During cold spells, experts tell us that weather is not climate.

Mr Hill added that the current spell of wintry weather across the UK did not contradict theories of climate change.

“There is a difference between weather and climate,” he said. “It’s about separating out what is weather and what is climate, what’s happening in the square metre above your head – or even a country the size of Scotland – from the huge climatic changes covering vast areas of ocean and continents.

Scottish ski industry could disappear due to global warming, warns Met Office – Telegraph

This understanding of climate changes during hot weather however, when weather is climate.

(WASHINGTON) — If you want a glimpse of some of the worst of global warming, scientists suggest taking a look at U.S. weather in recent weeks.

Horrendous wildfires. Oppressive heat waves. Devastating droughts. Flooding from giant deluges. And a powerful freak wind storm called a derecho.

Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in fire-charred Colorado, said these are the very record-breaking conditions he has said would happen, but many people wouldn’t listen. So it’s I told-you-so time, he said.

This U.S. Summer Is ‘What Global Warming Looks Like’ – TIME

These morons are like bad gamblers in Vegas. They count only their winnings and ignore their losses, until they get dragged out of the casino by some large bald guy named Guido.

10 Feb 2009

Alex Hill, chief government advisor with the Met Office, said the amount of snow in the Scottish mountains had been decreasing for the last 40 years and there was no reason for the decline to stop.

He added: “Put it this way, I will not be investing in the ski-ing industry

Scottish ski industry could disappear due to global warming, warns Met Office – Telegraph

20 MARCH 2000

According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.  “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes – or eventually “feel” virtual cold.

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – Environment – The Independent

24 March 2010

Mike Calnan, the National Trust’s head of gardens and parks, said the predictions were based on computer models generated by the Met Office Hadley Centre.

‘We looked at gardens in southern France and southern Portugal and, bearing in mind what we can grow in this country in mild locations, we came up with a list of probably things we could grow in the future,’ he said

He added: ‘The Met Office are saying that despite the recent concerns about the science, they are very sure about the underlying science.

National Trust campaign highlights how gardens will look if global warming brings Mediterranean weather to Britain | Mail Online

        Indiana	  ANDERSON SEWAGE	 7/14/1936	105	75
        Indiana	  ANGOLA         	 7/14/1936	106	77
        Indiana	  BERNE WWTP     	 7/14/1936	106	72
        Indiana	  BLOOMINGTON IN 	 7/14/1936	110	74
        Indiana	  BROOKVILLE     	 7/14/1936	108	69
        Indiana	  CAMBRIDGE CITY 	 7/14/1936	105	66
        Indiana	  COLUMBUS       	 7/14/1936	110	68
        Indiana	  DELPHI 2 N     	 7/14/1936	112	74
        Indiana	  GOSHEN 3SW     	 7/14/1936	111	72
        Indiana	  GREENCASTLE 1 W	 7/14/1936	107	73
        Indiana	  GREENFIELD     	 7/14/1936	109	76
        Indiana	  HOBART 2 WNW   	 7/14/1936	106	68
        Indiana	  MADISON SEWAGE 	 7/14/1936	109	72
        Indiana	  MARION 2 N     	 7/14/1936	108	72
        Indiana	  MT VERNON      	 7/14/1936	104	76
        Indiana	  OOLITIC PURDUE 	 7/14/1936	110	71
        Indiana	  PAOLI          	 7/14/1936	106	72
        Indiana	  PRINCETON 1 W  	 7/14/1936	110	70
        Indiana	  ROCHESTER      	 7/14/1936	108	75
        Indiana	  ROCKVILLE      	 7/14/1936	109	77
        Indiana	  RUSHVILLE      	 7/14/1936	107	65
        Indiana	  SALEM          	 7/14/1936	108	74
        Indiana	  SCOTTSBURG     	 7/14/1936	107	70
        Indiana	  SEYMOUR 2 N    	 7/14/1936	112	71
        Indiana	  SHOALS 8 S     	 7/14/1936	114	68
        Indiana	  WASHINGTON 1 W 	 7/14/1936	110	75
        Indiana	  WHEATFIELD     	 7/14/1936	112	70
        Indiana	  WHITESTOWN     	 7/14/1936	112	71
        Indiana	  WINAMAC 2SSE   	 7/14/1936	109	76