Real Climate Science

NASA’s Jay Zwally not only predicted a possible ice-free Arctic this summer, but his work also formed the basis of Hansen’s five metres of sea level rise .

Hansen still argues 5m 21st C sea level rise possible

This is interesting – here is the latest paper from James Hansen and coauthor Miki Sato Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change.  If you are up to reading climate science papers it’s highly recommended (I’m a little slow in getting to it – the press release was Dec 8th 2011 but I just got to reading it yesterday and today).

A little background is in order – one of the serious scientific debates in the climate science community over the last decade has been the implications of the unexpectedly large acceleration of glacier discharge in Greenland and Antarctica and in particular a discovery by Zwally et al in 2002 that surface melt water can get down the base of a glacier and lubricate its motion.  Prior to the early 2000s it was assumed that ice sheets would decay mainly by melting on the surface and climate models all assumed that they would decay only very slowly in a warmer world – it was a surprise to realize that the most important breakdown mode was actually basal lubrication and sliding down into the ocean.

I didn’t realize they had serious scientific debates at the nuthouse. I hope they don’t allow these folks to use anything sharper than a crayon.

Hansen in particular became the leading spokesman for the view that the ice sheets on Greenland and parts of Antarctica would prove quite unstable under Anthropocene conditions and might break down in a rapid non-linear manner and cause very large levels of twenty-first century sea level rise.

Hansen still argues 5m 21st C sea level rise possible | Energy Bulletin

Can I get get some global warming research money? After all, I made a ridiculous unsupportable, alarmist prediction which should be worth at least $5-10 million.

102 degree heat expected in Fort Collins today, shattering record

It was hot this morning, but triple-digit heat will scorch Fort Collins this afternoon.

The expected high today in the city is 102 degrees, according to the National Weather Service. That would shatter the previous record of 100 degrees set in 1936.

The average historic high temperature for today is 80 degrees. A triple-digit high today is no error, said NWS meteorologist Kari Bowen. “We are expecting those high temperatures for this area today,” she said. “The reason for that is the jet is up north, we have this big ridge of high pressure that’s building in, causing all the air to sink and heat up.”

Expect the thermometer to begin breaking records between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m.

102 degree heat expected in Fort Collins today, shattering record | The Coloradoan | coloradoan.com

The official high temperature in Fort Collins today was 98 degrees, two degrees cooler than 1936. According to the rhetoric of the newspaper, 1936 “shattered” 2012 temperatures.

Fort Collins Climatic Summary

According to NCDC,

• 1933 was the hottest June on record in the US.
• 1936 was the hottest July on record in the US.
• 1936 was the hottest summer on record in the US
• The summers of 1930-1939 averaged the hottest of any decade since the start of the database in 1895.

Even with all the cheating, bumping post 2000 temperature upwards by more than half a degree, and knocking a tenth of a degree off the 1930s – the 1930s still stands out as the hottest summers.

Next time James Hansen claims that the recent warm spring is proof of global warming, please remind him that he has no idea what he is talking about, and is hurting lot of people with his incompetence.

Trends in Carbon Dioxide

Since 1960, the annual increase in atmospheric CO2 content has more than doubled.

Scenario C would be the horizontal line y = 0 since the year 2000.
Scenario B would be the horizontal line y = 1.5 since 1988.
Scenario A is based on increasing annual emissions over time, and matches the red line above.

Scenario A is the forecast which temperature trends need to be compared against.

If breweries would brew pre-flattened beer², and deliver it by electric vehicles¹ – they would greatly reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Only people who live within 40 miles of a brewery would be able to purchase beer.

¹Budweisier would also be able to deliver by Clydesdale, if they corked the beasts to minimize farting.

²In England, pre-flattened beer is called “ale” and tastes like it came from the Clydsedale.

Rising sea levels a slow 7.7 billion dollar disaster
Sunday, 17 June 2012 06:00

The CCRAC estimates between 18,700 and 28,900 residential buildings in WA to be at risk from a 1.1 metre sea rise, representing $4.9 to $7.7 billion. Image: Stuart Sevastos

SPEAKING as part of the UWA Oceans Institute Dialogue Series, Dr Robert J Nicholls warns a one-metre rise in sea levels could have as great an impact on coastlines as fast onset disasters such as a tsunami.

While the University of Southampton Visiting Fellow would like more international cooperation on climate change, mitigation’s impact on the oceans would be limited.

“Mitigation will reduce and delay sea level rise, but some climate-induced sea level rise will occur irrespective of future emissions,” he says.

Rising sea levels a slow 7.7 billion dollar disaster

This little Dutch boy thinks he can stop sea level rise, and Prince Charles wants to be a tampon.

I vote we send this genius to the beach in Japan or Indonesia for the next tsunami, and he can see how that compares to the non-existent sea level rise WA has been experiencing over the past few decades.

The climate scientific method is

1. Ignore real world data. Replace it with hand waving estimates made by a flaming nutjob.
2. Don’t do any analysis to see if your proposed mitigation would actually have any effect.
3. Go straight to the press with your half-assed analysis, and try to scare people with insulting analogies that make no sense to anyone with an IQ over 12.

docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/061/mwr-061-06-c1.pdf

Every region of the lower 48 states was above 100F, including 113F in Nebraska.

docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/061/mwr-061-06-0181.pdf

China’s carbon emissions could be nearly 20% higher than previously thought, a new analysis of official Chinese data showed on Sunday, suggesting the pace of global climate change could be even faster than currently predicted.

Climate change rate could be faster than thought, study suggests | Environment | guardian.co.uk

These morons are incapable of distinguishing between CO2 and climate – possibly the stupidest group of people in human history.

A more sensible interpretation is : despite rapidly rising CO2 emissions (above scenario A) global temperatures have been constant for 15 years. This indicates that CO2 sensitivity is zero, and James Hansen needs to be retired.