The Death Spiral Of Mark Serreze’ Arctic Propaganda Continues

Arctic ice extent is getting dangerously close to crossing the 1979-2000 median. This is what the government’s leading Arctic expert calls a “death spiral.”  Mark also calls me “breathtakingly ignorant” for calling him on his BS over the past decade.

ScreenHunter_1456 Jul. 31 05.29

COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

About Tony Heller

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56 Responses to The Death Spiral Of Mark Serreze’ Arctic Propaganda Continues

  1. Andy Oz says:

    Mr Mark Serreze – PhD in Geography.
    Hmm. I’m not sure Geography is classified as a science?
    More like a general knowledge (i.e. philosophy) subject, but then I wax lyrical.
    Imagine the Alarmists celebrations once the Arctic Ice Extent cuts across the median.
    The cherubic ones will all sing and shout “We saved the planet!”
    And it only took 2 years of Australian carbon taxes to pay for it. Bargain!

    • It’s a science. And most geologists are sceptics.

      • Shanna M says:

        Geography and Geology are different things. Are you guys talking about the same thing?

      • Conflating geologists and geographers on this blog probably won’t win you any praise.

        • NoMoreGore says:

          Tony, are you familiar with Don Burge, a geologist with Utah State U. (Formerly College of Eastern Utah) in Price, Ut? He’s the curator of a small museum there in Price, and reported to be the discoverer of the Utahraptor fossils which became the star of Jurrasic Park. They have a few “Velociraptors” there in the Price museum, taken from a quarry about 50 miles away. Freaky looking up close. Anyway, he was one of my favorite professors. As a sideline, he makes and shoots cannons and old weaponry.

      • Glacierman says:

        This geologist agrees with you Tony. Very different.

      • Oops, sorry. I assumed “Geography” was a typo and it was meant to be “Geology”. Geography is not a science… it’s somewhere between History and English literature except you look at more maps. 😉

        • Actually it’s not clear to me if Serreze has a bachelor of science or a bachelor of arts in geography. The second is probably rare but possible. I suppose if I was *really* interested I would go to the effort to find out. Although I did look at his graduate student list and they are all graduating with arts degrees, so…

    • Mark McGuire says:

      Hey AndyOz.
      Though the carbon(sic) tax passed the senate 2 years ago in Oz, it cleared the House of reps in 2011 (when Kevin07 kissed Julia), making it 3 years of “climate stopping” action on carbon(sic).

      Expanding on the “logic” required to ‘believe’ this, how many extreme storms have not happened, or have been less ‘extreme’ because of Oz action on carbon(sic)?

      Is Gaia ‘keeping score’ of taxes now ‘legal’, thereby bestowing her benevolence upon Oz, making climate less extreme locally & globally?

      Finland introduced the world’s first carbon tax in 1990, making 25 years of planet saving action on carbon.

      Maybe Superstorm Sandy might have been a category 4 if not for Finland’s carbon(sic) action.

      You know it makes sense.
      You just gotta believe in the science …

  2. Caleb says:

    I wasn’t expecting that uptick. Likely the low over the pole now is spreading the ice out in the northern parts of the Greenland and Barents Sea. Personally, I think that is a bit like spreading the same amount of butter on a larger piece of bread, however confess I do delight at the prospect of it making Mr. Serreze squirm.

    It is not so much that he botched a forecast, that irked me about the man. We all botch forecasts, when we attempt to predict chaos. It was the attitude Mark had towards those who begged to differ that got me riled. Now he has to eat a little crow. It is amusing to watch.

    I myself was expecting a down-tick due to the polar low pushing ice out of the Laptev Sea. (FAIL) What would really cause an uptick would be for that flow to reverse, and the ice to push south and west back into the Laptev Sea. It could happen, if a decent storm gets situated east of there, for the East Siberian Sea is packed this year. It hasn’t been so loaded with ice in a while, and has plenty to spare. Of course, this increase in extent wouldn’t make any difference in terms of volume and area, however it would do wonders in terms of turning Mr. Serreze a deeper shade of green.

    I sure do love it when Mother Nature does my arguing for me.

    • Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter) says:

      Will he eat crow, Caleb, or will he make further excuses?

      These people won’t admit they are wrong until ice is approaching the 1979 limits. Even then, they’ll be predicting ‘ice-free’ by such-and-such a year….

      • Caleb says:

        I suppose you could be right. In which case the situation becomes sad. There is nothing more pathetic than a mistaken person who can’t admit a glaring mistake.

        Conversely, there is nothing more liberating than the ability to admit you are wrong when you are wrong. It’s actually refreshing to not always have to ride about on a high horse.

        I suppose people refuse to admit they are wrong even when their mistakes are glaring because money is involved. Either they fear losing their status and income as an “expert,” or they fear admitting a mistake will mean they get sued. However acting on such fears makes them pathetic.

        • Edmonton Al says:

          Many of the Warmists/Alarmists could be classed as Sociopaths. [Mark S. ??]
          •Superficial charm and good intelligence
          •Absence of delusions and other signs of irrational thinking
          •Absence of nervousness or neurotic manifestations
          •Untruthfulness and insincerity
          •Lack of remorse and shame
          •Inadequately motivated antisocial behavior
          •Poor judgment and failure to learn by experience
          •Pathologic egocentricity and incapacity for love
          •General poverty in major affective reactions
          •Specific loss of insight
          •Unresponsiveness in general interpersonal relations
          •Fantastic and uninviting behavior with alcohol and sometimes without
          •Suicide threats rarely carried out
          •Sex life impersonal, trivial, and poorly integrated
          •Failure to follow any life plan

      • Herve D says:

        New-York could be buried under a mile-thick of ice that these guys will still claim “it is global warming”…. Once becaming sectarian, intelligence escapes from brain…

        • Dan in Nevada says:

          In the movie “The Day After Tomorrow”, global warming causes New York to be buried under a mile of ice. This was in 2004. You have to get up pretty early in the morning to parody the catastrophists.

      • Mark Serreze still has scientific fallback options. He can say: “Gaia, you ignorant slut!”

  3. Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter) says:

    I plan to post a copy of that image to another site, but wish to wait jusssst a bit longer, until it is quite clear it is well within the mean. Maybe the end of August?

  4. Jim Hunt says:

    It probably won’t surprise anyone by now if I suggest that it’s advisable to check all the available data before calling people names in public. How about the Japanese version of events for starters?

    • Don’t panic. We’ll know the outcome when the freeze starts again soon.

    • Caleb says:

      Oh Jim, Jim, Jim. It’s such a laugh when you draw yourself up high and mighty, and lecture others about name-calling. Is it not you who refers to this site as “(un)Real Science” in your tweets? And was it not Mr. Serreze who referred to our host as “breathtaking Ignorant?”

      And how does our host respond? He posts a graph. Since when is posting a graph name-calling?

      What you are witnessing at this site is bluff-calling, not name-calling. It was Mr. Serreze who came up with the silly phrase “death spiral” and the hype about the arctic being ice-free this summer.

      It might be a bit impolite to call his mistakes “BS,” but it is not incorrect.

      • He should get credit for attacking his strawman at full speed and with all his power. Not everybody can do that.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        Oh Caleb, Caleb, Caleb. I have some evidence for my assertions!

        Where is your evidence for Mr. Serreze’s “silly phrase”?

        • Tel says:

          You have evidence for Steve Goddard indulging in name calling?

        • Scott says:


          Of course Steven called Dr. Serreze a name, it’s in this post! He called Dr. Serreze “the government’s leading Arctic expert”. Clearly, Jim Hunt must have found that distasteful, because the only name-calling Steven did in this post.


        • Jim Hunt says:
          July 31, 2014 at 1:02 pm

          … I have some evidence for my assertions!

          Where is your evidence for Mr. Serreze’s “silly phrase”?

          Listen, Jim:

          You spend a lot of time exclaiming you are not a troll. Let’s keep it simple and focused here. In the comment above you made one assertion and asked one question.

          You did not back up your assertion even when asked again. You also asked a question that has an answer so simple that you could have found it using any search engine within seconds, e.g. this interview with Joe Romm (and I suspect you know it very well):

          Making loud assertions without evidence and demanding someone else to provide information that is public knowledge and one can easily get himself is a typical troll behavior. The only other possibility is that you are an emotional fellow, scattered and sloppy in his postings and not understanding other people’s perception of his demeanor. I would not know—you are the foremost expert on yourself and I will defer to your findings. Excuses about aging eyes and aging brain—and I know about both—are OK when paired with humor and humility. When paired with aggression and arrogance they are just dishonest and laughable.

          Stop behaving like a troll and you’ll be taken more seriously and you may be able to contribute to this site with critical commentary.

          Otherwise, just go away and stay away. Trolls are despicable.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Listen Colorado:

          I can’t be everywhere at once you know. I’ve only just finished peering through the mists in my crystal ball:

          First of all, which “assertion” of mine do you suppose that I “did not back up”?

          Last but not least, do you believe every single thing that Joe Romm writes? Please supply some credible evidence, in context, of what Dr. Serreze actually said. Not what Joe Romm says he said. You do understand the difference don’t you?

        • I should be grateful, at least, that you removed all doubt. Caleb’s got you pegged right.

          Go away, troll.

        • Jimbo says:

          Jim Hunt says: Where is your evidence for Mr. Serreze’s “silly phrase”?

          Are you new to this debate. Here is the quote and source.

          National Geographic News – September 17, 2008
          The ice is in a “death spiral” and may disappear in the summers within a couple of decades, according to Mark Serreze, an Arctic climate expert at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

          Here are some other sill phrases you might like.

          Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
          Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’
          Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.

          “It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”

          Guardian – 17 September 2012
          Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
          “This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.

          Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
          “It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”

          The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
          Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert
          “The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.

          “The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”

          Guardian – 17 September 2012
          This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
          [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

          Arctic News – June 27, 2012
          My own view of what will happen is: 1. Summer sea ice disappears, except perhaps for small multiyear remnant north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, by 2015-16. 2. By 2020 the ice free season lasts at least a month and by 2030 has extended to 3 months…..

        • Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter) says:

          Yo jimmy! Here’s your proof!

          Read it and admit it verified and true!

        • tom0mason says:

          “Where is your evidence for Mr. Serreze’s “silly phrase”?”

          “The Arctic sea ice has reached its four lowest summer extents (area covered) in the last four years,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the U.S. city of Boulder, Colorado.

          The volume – extent and thickness – of ice left in the Arctic likely reached the lowest ever level this month, Serreze told IPS.

          “I stand by my previous statements that the Arctic summer sea ice cover is in a death spiral. It’s not going to recover,” he said.

          Mr. Serreze’s finest silly phrase along with “It’s not going to recover,” is the stupidity of nonscientific rune or ouija board watching.

        • It’s stupidity, Jim, but not as we know it.


        • Shazaam says:

          Loud crickets are drowning out Mr Hunt aka. Snow White’s response here.

          I think I was hasty thinking he had a grey belt on the Trolljitsu scale. Definitely a white belt novice. I suspect he breaks wind whilst trolling, thus does not qualify for a grey.

        • _Jim says:

          Joe Romm?

          Since when did he ‘get sane’?

        • _Jim says:

          ‘Snow White’ from WUWT? I remember now … I think I want to be known as “The Argentine Firecracker” or maybe “The Tidal Basin Bombshell” …

          AKA “Fanne Fox” in the press (if anyone recalls the scandal with former House Ways and Means committee chairman Wilbur Mills back in the 1970s).

        • Gail Combs says:

          Yes _Jim it is the same Snow White who showed up at WUWT a few months ago.

        • Shazaam says:

          @Jim….. Tidal Basin Bombshell??? Seriously??

          I’d have to see a photo of your…… Er…. “Credentials” before I’d refer to you as that.

          (Note I used to troll as “Calvin” and “Hobbes” on a long, long ago defunct site. Somehow, I found it easy to channel a six-year-old brat. I know……. It defies belief….. 😉 )

          These days, Gomer Pyle’s “Shazaam” for things going massively wrong just seems to fit.

    • DD More says:

      Better not compare to Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – @

      You see you Japanese friends as showning – The latest value: 6,763,129 km2?(July 31, 2014)

      While ACR is showing 5.144 mill km2.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        And your point is? I know what the CT area reading is. I even predicted it yesterday! Expect a decline of somewhere around 135 k tomorrow.

        Is either metric in fact “dangerously close to crossing the 1979-2000 median”? Where in fact is “the 1979-2000 median” on the graph at the top?

        • Your endless attempts to twist the conversation from extent to area are about to get you banned. I suggest you make this your last time. I have no tolerance for dishonest people.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Pardon me? DD More introduced the subject of “Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois” (i.e. ACR/CT area) into the conversation, not me. As you can see from my comment above, I couldn’t see what the point of doing so in this context was either.

          I also directed his/her attention back to “the graph at the top”.

  5. emsnews says:

    I like the red box at your site, Jim, announcing that the data was ‘revised’. We all know what that means!

    • Jim Hunt says:

      It’s not my site.

      You may wish to check out all the model changes mentioned at:

      “The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to 2010 T799 data are used and from 2010 to present the T1279 model data are used.”

      What do you suppose that means?

    • Tel says:

      JAXA isn’t his site, but the Version 1 and Version 2 comparison page is interesting.

      DMI marks the low point of 2012 as approx 4, JAXA v1 marks the same as about 3.5, JAXA v1 marks it as about 3.2 so clearly there is some interpretation of the raw data. What matters is that the trend is correct, based on self-consistent interpretation over many decades… that’s tricky when a multitude of satellites are involved.

      Anyhow, JAXA v2 agrees that the short term trend is towards more ice. That doesn’t tell us much about climate, because year-on-year variability is high.

  6. Pathway says:

    I think we need to send J.H. a blow torch and a kayak.

  7. emsnews says:

    Do note this guy brings up the eternal, ‘It’s just WEATHER, not climate’ excuse. Same old excuses.

  8. James the Elder says:

    Listen Colorado
    I can’t be everywhere at once you know. I’ve only just finished peering through the mists in my crystal ball:
    Interesting he would post that. All that name calling was directed AT Steve at one time or another,, not FROM Steve. But, you would have to read that post to see that, not just buzz by with the trolling motor on cruise.

  9. Jim Hunt says:

    Re: Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter) says: July 31, 2014 at 11:34 pm

    Why do you guys keep giving me links to “warmist” sites? Doesn’t their reporting include a “hidden agenda” of some sort? Alternatively perhaps they always speak the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth?

    I don’t suppose anybody here knows of a video of Mark actually SAYING those words do they? That would be as good as one could get context wise.

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