When the World Has No Coal, Iron and Oil; CHEMISTRY IN MODERN LIFE. By Svante August Arrhenius.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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Ahrrenius can just join the other “premier scientists” who uttered totally failed predictions:
Paul Ehrlich – Overpopulation, resource depletion, ecological Armageddon
James Hansen – Runaway heating, sea-level rise, death of civilization
M. King Hubbert – “Peak Oil” and exhaustion of hydrocarbon resources
Rachel Carson – Ecological collapse due to DDT use
Susan Solomon – Atmospheric collapse due to fluorocarbon “pollution” and reduction of stratospheric ozone
Al Gore – Well, pretty much everything the Bloviator ever said
Margaret Sanger – Population improvement through eugenics/abortion
Michael Mann – No Little Ice Age, no Medieval Warm Period
Phil Jones – no Urban Heat Island effect
Stephen Schneider – Atmospheric pollution will lead to Global Ice Age
Stephen Schneider – CO2 emissions will lead to runaway global warming
Mark Serreze (and many, many others) – Arctic sea ice will be gone by XXXX
Kevin Trenberth – Global warming “heat” is hiding in the oceans
etc., etc.
All of these “great minds” failed the same test. That is, they looked at short-term trends and extrapolated them (linearally or with power-law exaggeration) into the future.
Most earth phenomena are cyclical – – due to negative feedbacks, but punctuated at times by singular events – – as any experienced geologist knows.
Every last one of the above are the biggest liars in my life time, so far.
You left out the Australian Climate Change Commissioner, Professor Tim Flannery, who predicted no more rain, rivers to run dry, dams to be permanently empty – then, it rained, and rained, and then kept raining. I think Prof. Tim has gone fishing in the Darling River in a tinny since. Quietly traversing its course from Queensland to the Murray River.
Peak oil! Every prediction of peak oil has been wrong. At least this isn’t based on completely unreasonable math. Technology has been able to find more oil and we can now extract oil from places that were unthinkable not long ago.
A somewhat related topic is the rule of 70. At 7% growth in demand per year, the required oil needed doubles every 10 years. I don’t know what the increase in oil demand actually is. But at a constant increase demand percentage-wise, you’ll get a doubling in demand every X years. After a while (N doublings), it doesn’t matter how much oil is on the planet, there simply won’t be enough to fulfill the demand. That’s the theory. In practice, new sources of oil have continued to be found and best guesses to peak oil have all been wrong.
The end of oil has been just around the corner since the 19th century.
Last I bothered to look which was a while ago, present reserves are the greatest they have ever been in terms of years at present consumption and total volume.
So long as there is some manner of a functioning market in oil demand and price will keep things stable enough and able to progress away from it. For there to be some sort disaster we would have to believe that oil companies are covering up how little oil there is left. This is why I challenge peak oil believers to charge big oil CEOs with fraud. If anything oil companies try control supply to keep prices up not covering up depletion to keep them down.
On another note oil will now never run out because people know how to make light crude oil from organic waste products. It would just be a manufacturing problem to meet demands or a price problem if it can’t be. In either case it would fill in if and when depletion becomes an issue.
Oil can also be made from coal.
Plenty of that around too ! 🙂
Inflated opinions of self can make complete fools out of anyone.
Clever manipulators of people – like politicians and good advertising firms – know how to benefit themselves by inflating the ego and false pride of others.
My hotair comment:
Yeah, what a joke. Unless it’s record cold for weeks on end and 7 feet of snow, despite the 2000 warmist refrain: “snow in just a few years will be a thing of the past.” Not.
Or unless the “reality” of out of control warming equates to 18 years of zero warming, and a dozen of cooling. Or record Antarctic ice. Or huge increases in Arctic ice. Or record Great Lakes ice. Yeah, record high levels of Great Lakes ice for two years running. Those are the things we would see after a hundred years of runaway hockey stick warming.. NOT!
Unless we are going to go with this from the warmist loon and Obama Science Czar John Holdren:
“The kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern we can expect to see with increasing frequency, as global warming continues.” -John Holdren, 2014
Right, hot is causing it to be cold, FREEZING cold! Idiotic.
Interesting, the record for the hottest day ever on this globe was set in 1913. After a supposed 100 years of runaway warming that record should have been broken time after time after time. But no. The record coldest day ever? That was set in 1983, or according to new satellite data: 2010! This is backwards my friends, and it gives credence to the notion the lefist stewards of the warmist data have grievously manipulated that data for their political ends. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11395516/The-fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-science-scandal-ever.html
And note this 1989 warmist prediction:
“Entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of eco-refugees, threatening political chaos.” -Noel Brown, ex UNEP Director, 1989
Wow. The oceans didn’t swamp the planet 15 years ago. In fact sea level is essentially the same as it has been for decades, rising maybe the width of your finger nail every year, if even that. The “reality” is that EVERY doomsaying prediction of the fear mongering Chicken Littles has failed to materialize.
“We have to offer up scary scenarios… each of us has to decide the right balance between being effective and being honest.” -Stephen Schneider, lead ipcc author, 1989
Not only does increasing warming cause increasing cold, but our government spokesmen tell us that incresing debt causes increasing prosperity.
Gosh! Our masters sure are wise masters!
Thomas Sowell (the great) would probably repeat his comments on the audacity of the intellectuals; “they would have to be smarter than all of us combined, in order to have the authority to speak for us” (loosely quoted).
A decade or so ago I would have naively assumed that presenting people with solid proof would be sufficient to establish something. I don’t think that anymore. Is it the psychiatric drugs? Bad education? TV and Hollywood films? Bad food? In any case and whatever it is I do not think these basic ideas of truth and falsity, proof and lack thereof, etc. the bases of rational thought, have any significance for people now days. Except in the very narrow confines of their daily lives people have surrendered to irrationality. They will believe anything. It is really pointless to argue and try to convince. Most can not handle reason anymore. What a world. Unfortunately it looks like the oligarchs share this malaise as well. Yes, why not attack Russia? Open the borders. Give illegals tax money. If an illegal is driving under the influence wave them on. Perfect. Alice in WonderAmerica.
Hey John, I think you are correct. The good news is that even if the US has embraced stupidity, other people around the world are still interested in rational thought.
Sadly, many folk here in America cannot be swayed by facts and logic. Their lives will not remain comfortable much longer…
Where? Not Western Europe, for sure. I can’t think of any place on Earth that is really any more rational than we, and I say that knowing full well it is setting the bar low.
A fact that most people are unaware of is that even when an oil well is uneconomic, it still may have 50% of its original oil in place still remaining. Technology has gotten us to 50% of the oil in place and technology will find a way of recovering a good share of the remaining 50%. For those who are mistaken believers in peak oil; this means that there is more oil remaining in the ground than has ever been produced.
I have 1,500,000,000,000 barrels of Karogen in my back yard. There are two other deposits almost as large.
Good. Peak oil is a myth along the lines of man caused global warming, IMO.
Wow have you seen this? 100% do NOT believe in AGW poll
http://www.andovertownsman.com/web-question-do-you-believe-in-global-warming/poll_ccdaad6e-b7ee-11e4-bf52-ef7fc01a48da.html
Andover, MA. of course. I would say the residents there have good reason to be “deniers.”
Svante Arrhenius – math genius and scientific genius. Not big on insight and wisdom:
“Svante Arrhenius was one of several leading Swedish scientists actively engaged in the process leading to the creation in 1922 of The State Institute for Racial Biology in Uppsala, Sweden, which had originally been proposed as a Nobel Institute. Arrhenius was a member of the institute’s board, as he had been in The Swedish Society for Racial Hygiene (Eugenics), founded in 1909.[13] The Institute became associated with a forced sterilization program which affected 63,000 people and continued until 1975.[2]” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius
Funny how all these people seem to be cut from the same bolt of cloth.
For God’s sake don’t let them govern.
In retrospect of a conversation where you think someone may have said too much; you are probably a conservative. In retrospect of a conversation and you are sure someone said too little, you are probably a liberal.
There is something deep in many peoples psyche that makes them think that
a. We have found everything and there is nothing left
b. Until our time the Earth had been stable and unchanging.
c If anything changes it must be our fault.
Unfortunately those of us who think
a. Even if we run out of something we’re smart enough to find an alternative
b. The Earth is ever changing and we should count our blessing for living in benign times
c. If it changes then our influence was negligible if not zero.
Remain unheard and vilified. Those you are politicians, religious leaders and in the “media” love the former and hate the latter.
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/peak-oil-did-you-know/344045
USGS was really really good at doing that, when they are not saying that CO2 doesn’t come from volcanoes they are doing peak oil 😛
In 1865 they ran out of coal.
http://youtu.be/WjdJH-KrxKE
Link to the e-book is here:
http://www.eoearth.org/article/The_Coal_Question:_Opinions_of_Previous_Writers
“The Coal Question: An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal-Mines Author”: William Stanley Jevons
“ONE of the earliest writers who conceived it was possible to exhaust our coal mines was John Williams, a mineral surveyor. In his “Natural History of the Mineral Kingdom,” first published in 1789, he gave a chapter to the consideration of “The Limited Quantity of Coal of Britain.”
Jevons had thoughts on windmills:
“The first great requisite of motive power is, that it shall be wholly at our command, to be exerted when and where and in what degree we desire. The wind, for instance, as a direct motive power, is wholly inapplicable to a system of machine labour, for during a calm season the whole business of the country would be thrown out of gear. Before the era of steam-engines; windmills were tried for draining mines; “but though they were powerful machines, they were very irregular, so that in a long tract of calm weather the mines were drowned, and all the workmen thrown idle. From this cause, the contingent expenses of these machines were very great; besides, they were only applicable in open and elevated situations.”
No possible concentration of windmills, again, would supply the force required in large factories or iron works. An ordinary windmill has the power of about thirty-four men, or at most, seven horses. Many ordinary factories would therefore require ten windmills to drive them; and the great Dowlais Ironworks, employing a total engine power of 7,308 horses, would require no less than 1,000 large windmills!”
On taxation:
“A FEW pages may be given to considering the policy of imposing duties and restrictions with a view to limit the consumption of our fuel.
The character of a general tax on coal was truly stated by Robert Bald. “It would unnerve the very sinews of our trade, and be a death-blow to our flourishing manufactories. Were our determined enemy set in council, to deliberate upon a plan to wound us in a vital point as a nation, the advising the imposing of this tax would be the most successful he could possibly suggest.”
History of ‘Peak Oil’
• 1857 — Romania produces 2,000 barrels of oil, marking the beginning of the modern oil industry.
• 1859, Aug. 25 — Edwin L. Drake strikes oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania
• 1862 — First commercial oil production in Canada, also 1863 in Russia.
• 1862 — Most widely used lamp fuel (camphene) taxed in US at aprox. $1 a gallon; kerosene taxed at 10 cent per gallon.(Kovarik, 1997)
• 1863 — John D. Rockefeller starts the Excelsior Refinery in Cleveland, Ohio.
• 1879 — US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages.
• 1882 — Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain.With 25 million barrels per year output, “Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast,” Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124).
• 1901 — Spindletop gusher in Texas floods US oil market.
• 1906 — Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried “not so much [about] cost as … supply.”
• 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. “The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste…. Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight… and comfort and endurance, to avert what … will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation.”
• 1920 — David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. “In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent.” (Pratt, p. 125. Emphasis added).
• 1925 — US Commerce Dept. says that while U.S. oil production doubled between 1914 and 1921, it did not kept pace with fuel demand as the number of cars increased.
• 1928 — US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book “We Fight for Oil” noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said.
• 1926 — Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain.
• 1930 — Some 25 million American cars are on the road, up from 3 million in 1918.
• 1932 — Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain.
• 1944 — Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrels of oil remain.
• 1950 — American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. (See Jean Laherre, Forecast of oil and gas supply)
• 1956 — M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970.
• 1966 – 1977 — 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: “These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.”)
• 1973 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Middle Eastern politics.
• 1978 — Petroleos de Venezuela announces estimated unconventional oil reserve figure for Orinoco heavy oil belt at between three and four trillion barrels. (More recent public estimates are in the one trillion range).
• 1979 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Middle Eastern politics.
• 1980 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels
• 1993 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels
• 2000 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels.
• 2005 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand
• 2008 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand, global economies collapse when oil reaches over $140 USD/bbl.
Oil reserves have declined from 95 million barrels in 1882, to well over a trillion barrels in 2011. We will probably run out in a few centuries at the rate we are consuming the oil. A simple solution for high efficient vehicles is already available – as soon as someone figures out how to install air conditioning and all wheel drive on a motorcycle…. No, it is not an error in numbers or statement – just a little sarcasm.
http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html
I am pleased that other scientists are concerned about the supply of fossil fuels, . . .
but disappointed that leaders of the scientific community sacrificed the integrity of science for research funds from corrupt politicians.
Regretfully, the world is now broken.
But the creator and sustainer of every atom, life and world will not be hidden from the public by corrupt politicians and puppet “scientists.”
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Solar_Energy_For_Review.pdf
I remember sitting in a college chemistry class in 1978 and our instructor told us in no uncertain
terms that there would be no oil left within 30 years. I wonder what he says now!
Reblogged this on 4timesayear's Blog.
*sigh*
Is the full article from 1926 available anywhere (or has anyone copied & pasted the thing) outside the NYT subscription/paywall?
I just hate subsidizing their arrogant anti-Americanism…
Peak oil always deals with the known and current extraction. It cannot deal wth what is not known. Such calculations are not valueless, but journalists simply do not know what is being said.