Disaster Looms For Climate Alarmists

Arctic sea ice is melting much slower than normal this spring. Normally, most of the melt during May is in the Bering Sea, but the ice has already melted there – nearly guaranteeing ongoing slow reduction in sea ice extent over the next month. By the end of the month, ice extent should be close to the 1981-2000 mean.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Tough times for Democrats and climate alarmists, who expected all the ice to disappear this summer.

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

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55 Responses to Disaster Looms For Climate Alarmists

  1. oldbrew says:

    It’s a tipping point – their top Arctic prediction is about to topple over.

    • Robertv says:

      More ice is bad news. Here in Barcelona (Catalunya) we are still waiting for warmer (normal) weather. My tomato plants are still small and no flowers yet.

      • arn says:

        Now even tomatoes denie warming.

        btw-a very easy way to measure real increase in warming(at least when you live in a warm touristic region like barcelona)
        is to sea when the masses start to enter the water and when they stop swimming.
        Warmer climate = warmer water= longer swimming seasons.
        And especially in the midterreanean sea noone can pull some global unprecedent cold streams out of his butt to explain why the swimming seasons are in general as short/long as they always used to be.

      • Andy says:

        Spain has nothing to do with the Arctic.

        Spain is in Europe.

        Europe is actually having a very hot weekend ….. record temps for the UK. Send your tomato plants over to England.

        I’m growing chillies over here at the moment :)


      • AndyG55 says:

        UAH has April 2018 in 7th place (out of 40)

        Year to end of April, 2018 is in 9th place

        But land temps are still probably cooler than the 1930/40s

  2. Gator says:

    Tough times for Democrats and climate alarmists, who expected all the ice to disappear this summer.

    Tough times they have brought upon themselves, and all because they deny the science.

  3. Anon says:

    Hi Tony,

    Great info. It looks like things may unfold the way you predict. But just be careful of “predictions” as we don’t have accurate models, nobody does, they will for sure come after you for being wrong. I have a feeling you called it on this -just be careful is all.

    • tonyheller says:

      I’m going to really stick my neck out now, and predict that a horse will win the Kentucky Derby.

    • Andy says:

      Tony is rubbish at judging what the Arctic will do, as I can speak from experience having been on this blog for many a year.

      Mind you, I am not much better, and last year the scientists got it hopelessly wrong too, worse than normal.

      Best just watch and learn.


      • Disillusioned says:


        I am a former believer in AGW. Tony is NOT the only “rubbish.” EVERYBODY IS! However, he is way above the the bar, which is very low. Surely YOU agree. NO?

        You said, “Best just watch and learn.”

        I agree: Yes – that is best. IF only the paid AGW cabal would watch and learn (rather than continuing to believe and teach the same old lies, in the face of empirical evidence that shoots the teaching to hell).

      • AndyG55 says:

        Little Any is rubbish in criticising TH

        You have always been wrong about basically everything.

        I doubt you are capable of learning.

    • Disillusioned says:

      The globalist left have a double standard. They can get it wrong hundreds of times, and the Ministry of Propaganda (MSM) will ignore it – it has that record for the decade I have been following this.

      You’re absolutely right. Tony needs to be careful of prognostication. Although we all may have edumacated guesses as to what’s going to happen, Mama Gaia and Papa Sol are brutal to prognosticators.

    • R. Shearer says:

      But skiing in Hawaii is over.

      • Gator says:

        Butt skiing? Sounds like my old ski club the “Stuttgart Sitzmarkers”.

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          But was it a racing club?

          • Gator says:

            Yep! A race to the bottom! ;-)

          • RAH says:

            Only had 3 Jack & Cokes yesterday, but they were tall ones. Does that qualify as zero? If so then I have been having zero drinks a day for months now but despite that I had to open up a new half gallon of Jack yesterday. Hmm!

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            “… despite that I had to open up a new half gallon of Jack yesterday.”

            RAH, 3 tall Jacks do qualify as zero because that’s how you measure it scientifically. Counting empty bottles is just a meaningless proxy for your consumption.

            You should, however, pay attention to the symptoms affecting your concentration. Are you watching the sports channel while posting about the science of drinking?

          • RAH says:

            Actually I wrote that and put iy in the wrong place AFTER having the zero Jack & Cokes and cooking and consuming a considerable amount of BBQ chicken on the grill.
            My zero consumption of JD actually declined during the first 1/3 of 2018. Usually I find the bottom of a 1/2 gallon in about 6 weeks. The 1/2 gallon dead soldier yesterday had lasted me the whole year up to that time, and no, it was not because of zero consumption of some other adult beverage nor a lack of funds!

            Less zero consumption = less zero resistance to the effects.

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            RAH, it is clear that more research is needed to get to the bottom of it.

  4. R. Shearer says:

    Since “zero” ice is 1 million sq km, I take today’s extent plus zero and it’s well above average.

    • Gator says:

      I’m a millionaire!

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      I take a scientific approach to my drinking with “zero” defined as 5 drinks.

      The number of drinks my friends and I had last night were clustered around zero for each of us.

    • arn says:

      than killing 1 mio people is also zero

      Now i understand why your deep state can destroy country and kill millions of people.
      They simply killed zero people several times.
      As the journalists have the very same mindset as climate scientists((=they vote the same party and think Hilary should have become president,are super social&progressive ,believe that islam is a religion of peace + a dozen other blatant stupidities incl. AGW))
      they can see nothing wrong there.

  5. gregole says:

    What do you put the likelihood MSM will run a story this year following up on that 2008 story? I’ll start. I estimate the number of stories following up on the 2008 predictions that we would be “Toast” (toast – cute term; what exactly does that mean…) to be precisely zero.

    But consider it a moment; we were supposed to have some sort of tipping point (tipping point – cute term; what exactly does it mean…) by now. From my non-specialist, non-expert understanding, tipping point refers to the radiant property of CO2 causing atmospheric insulation thus trapping heat, which would somehow initiate a positive feedback through changes in earth’s albedo by causing enough ice to melt that some sort of cascading, escalating climate feedback would kick-start. “The ice will vanish quite suddenly”; “the oceans will boil away”; “earth will become like Venus”. And pertinent to this post “We’re toast.”

    Extraordinary claims.

    It’s 2018. Arctic has plenty of ice. Antarctic has plenty of ice. Somewhere on the planet right now, I quite sure, there is:

    Cold snaps
    Lack of storms

    And as far as I care to investigate, nothing at all is outside of historic averages – depending how far one is able to establish a rigorous historic average.

    • RAH says:

      Yep, the great “climate prophet” Hanson, among others, are on the bubble this summer. And it is already pretty clear that bubble will burst. And this time I don’t think there is a way the weasel out of it for a time as he did with the assistance of the reporter that quoted him predicting the west side Hwy being underwater.

  6. Latitude says:

    “Normally, most of the melt during May is in the Bering Sea, but the ice has already melted there “…..

    Then that has to mean the ice is above normal somewhere else, right?

    • Caleb says:

      Yes. Barents Sea is well above normal. Ron Clutz has a good post on this, and I used his ideas to do a post of my own.

      A lot of ice melts nearly every year. For example, the Bering Sea and Hudson Bay . If you subtract that ice and just focus on the Central Arctic things don’t look good for Alarmists, this year. The ice is thicker, and there is more of it.

      One major way to reduce the ice in the Central Arctic is for wind to export it south through Fram Strsit and flush it down the east coast of Greenland to where it can be melted by the Gulf Stream. So far this normal phenomenon is happening less this spring, as is shown by there being less ice in the Greenland Sea.

      You have to look east of there, to the other side of Svalbard, before you see the Barents Sea surplus.

      All in all I expect Alarmists to either change the subject away from sea-ice to another topic, or else find a volcano to blame for “delaying” the fabled ice-free-pole. Because it sure as shooting won’t be ice-free this summer.

      • Andy says:

        Forgetting summer ice extent, how was winter maximum extent in the arctic Caleb this year????

        you said

        ” A lot of ice melts nearly every year”

        I certainly agree. Although it is every year, not nearly every year……


        • AndyG55 says:

          And a LOT of ice REMAINS.

          FAR more than for the first 9000 years or so of the current interglacial.

          Still in the top10% of extents for the last 10,000 years.

          Why do you continue to DENY that fact?

          Incapable of learning anything counter to your AGW cult beliefs??

          • Andy says:

            How can I deny anything that I never talked about and you just pulled out of your Holocene rectum?


            I’m not even AGW, I just like science and will wait for it to come out in the wash. It’s a non trivial problem and both sides go too far to their sides.

            You especially

          • AndyG55 says:

            And you go NOWHERE, just mindless AGW alarmism

            You are NOT interested in science, otherwise you would take some notice of the FACT that current Arctic sea ice levels are ANOMALOUSLY HIGH

            But you HAVE to DENY that to make your anti-science diatribes.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Come on little andy

            State the facts.. be brave

            Then get off your high horse about low Arctic sea ice extents.

            Arctic sea ice is in the top 10% of Holocene extents.

            Well above that of the MWP.

            Only period its been higher, was during the anomalously cold LIA and late 1970’s

            Do You Agree with these facts. YES or NO !!

  7. Andy says:

    “By the end of the month, ice extent should be close to the 1981-2000 mean.”




    • Disillusioned says:

      I bookmarked your bookmark.


      • Andy says:

        Then given that you will now be looking at


        currently tracking lowest couple of years in the data set and not getting anywhere near the 1981 to 2000 mean.

        I remember a while back Tony banged on about how the year would follow 2006 and it did not. Judging how the Arctic melts has always been a tricky field, especially if you want it to melt a certain way.

        Having said that I will do my own prediction for summer minimum extent, 4 million square km give or minus 200 000.


  8. Disillusioned says:

    I bookmarked your bookmark.


  9. AndyG55 says:

    Wind patterns that would normally spread the extent have bunch all the sea ice into thicker sea ice.

    You are aware of that fact aren’t you little any.

    Or are you just as unaware as you are about the fact that the current level is way higher than the Holocene average.. in the top 10% of the last 10,000 year actually

    Or are you going to DENY that and keep up your mindless chicken-little squawking.

  10. AndyG55 says:

    DMI Ice Volume just about on the mean.

    LOTS of thick ice.

  11. Andy says:

    Dear AndyG55

    As Steve mentioned in his post

    “Arctic sea ice is melting much slower than normal this spring. Normally, most of the melt during May is in the Bering Sea, but the ice has already melted there – nearly guaranteeing ongoing slow reduction in sea ice extent over the next month. By the end of the month, ice extent should be close to the 1981-2000 mean.”

    “By the end of the month, ice extent should be close to the 1981-2000 mean.”

    2 days to go…..



  12. Andy says:

    Turns out I was right and Tony was wrong with his prediction on sea ice extent.

    It could easily have been the other way around though, single years tend to catch people out. Even the scientists.


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