Terrifying Times For Climate Alarmists

Arctic sea ice volume is highest in five years, and approaching the “normal” line.

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180523.png (1337×1113)

It has been ten years since Mark Serreze and David Barber predicted an ice-free North Pole that summer, and I countered with an article in The Register “Arctic Ice Refuses To Melt As Ordered

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

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49 Responses to Terrifying Times For Climate Alarmists

  1. RAH says:

    Just imagine the scramble if it stays above the 2014 line.

    • lance says:

      they’ll change the goal posts

      • Jacob Frank says:

        New ice doesn’t count ?

        • arn says:

          They’ll simply start to claim that the former arbitrary definition of an ice free arctic(smaller than 1 million
          square kilometers=85% of all countries are smaller than that:) was wrong and >
          2 million square kilometers are the new ice free.
          They will move to 3 million in 2035 i guess.)

      • Griff says:

        This article has established a set of goal posts in which the most optimistic and possibly erroneous estimates are manipulated to give a misleading impression…

        • TimA says:

          So when National Geographic predicts an “ice free” arctic, that means something other than finding no ice? Your ludicrous nuancing of this nonsense is off the scale.
          Old ice, new ice, thin ice, thick ice….none of that equals no ice. You clearly can not be that obtuse, so who’s paying you?

          • Griff says:

            all the ‘ice free’ predictions contain conditional language and are predicated on a specific rate of decline observed at the time.

            and again, for shame your only response is accusations I’m being paid. Again: I am not paid, or employed, or leftist, or a member of any green or political organization (etc)

          • Stewart Pid says:

            Griff if not paid, a leftist, employed, a green or political then that only leaves BATSHIT CRAZY!! Correct?

    • garyh845 says:

      They’ll simply ignore it, just as they have this:

      • Steven Fraser says:

        The numbers are really interesting. The rate of volume decline for the last seven days is still the second lowest in the DMI set.

        2018 is now only 83 km³ less than 2009, in 2009 is declining more rapidly than 2018.

        If this relationship continues a couple more days, 2009 will fall below 2018, And 2018 will become #7 .

        As it is today, 2018 is at 99.38% of the average ice volume for yesterday in the DMI Volume.

        • RAH says:

          Lots of old ice that is thicker and tougher to melt and break up. I expect the melt to be less than normal the whole summer and volume to remain near the DMI mean.

          • Griff says:

            See here for distribution of thicker ice (towards bottom of post)

            There is less older ice and what there is is thinner.

            I expect, given average or better conditions for melting, another in the series of lowest/lowest 5 extents

          • Andy DC says:

            Reggie has not yet whipped out his blowtorch. When he does, the rate of melt will increase dramatically. Even the thickest ice does not stand a chance against Reggie’s blowtorch!

          • AndyG55 says:

            neven and piomas.. !!!


            You have GOT to be JOKING, griff.

            Neven is yet another climate change DENIER that refuses to admit to the FACT that current Arctic sea ice levels are still in the top 10% of the last 10,000 years.

            Most of that 10% was during the anomalous COLD of the LIA.

            By refusing to admit that truth , you and your elk are constantly LYING

      • Andy DC says:


        Will you at least admit the obvious, that there has been at the very least an eleven year pause in Arctic sea ice decline? A pause that no alarmist scientist predicted?

  2. frederik wisse says:

    These were all predictions made very lightheartedly and for now without consequences if the opposite happens , which may be expected using common sense . Suppose a farmer invested his future based upon these socalled scientific facts , will he be able to claim damages in a court ? Suppose the whole group of farmers invested based upon these scientific assumptions or facts , would it be not more than reasonable to hold these false prophets to account before an official Judge ? Once their words could mean accountability most of these socalled climatescientists would be a lot more careful and prudent and abstain from political messaging .

    • Robertv says:

      Give a Marxist a finger and he will try to take over the body. Climate is just one of the many tools Marxists use to gain power . Divide and conquer to install their deadly Utopia. The only way to fight this cancer is to eradicate it.

    • Gord says:

      Well we have a group in Manitoba headed by Danny Blair from the U of Winnipeg that is predicting Texas weather for the 2080’s. They are partly funded by Manitoba. So what are their liabilities? They are not “speculating” but stating it as fact, all based on the IPCC worst case scenario.

  3. Griff says:

    Yes, the volume in the DMI charts is showing that.

    which has been pointed out as odd by many observers given the low extent, warm winter in the arctic, lack of multi year ice.

    Other volume measures show something different – e.g. PIOMAs

    “The maximum for sea ice volume was reached during April. According to the PIOMAS model, it peaked on April 16th at 22,376 km3, which is the second lowest maximum on record, 1594 km3 above last year’s stunning record low maximum, and 301 km3 below 2011’s maximu”

    Here for full discussion:

  4. Steven Fraser says:

    Update with the numbers for the 24th.:

    2018 seven day see ice volume is still #8, with seven day average decline now lowest in the DM I record for those days, just slightly lower than 2004.

    2018 is now 99.61% of the average volume for the 16 years on that Day of the year.

    At current decline rates, 2018 and 2009 should be approximately equal in two days .

    Stay tuned!

  5. RAH says:

    OT but Joe Bastardi believes the disturbance coming out of the western Caribbean has a good chance to develop into a minimal CAT I before it hits the coast somewhere along the western Florida Pan Handle to eastern Mississippi Gulf coast.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Where did the alarming acceleration of the already rapidly melting and screaming Arctic ice go?

  7. Pathway says:

    The combination of winter snow cover and arctic ice is increasing albedo not decreasing it.

    • Griff says:

      even when there is less ice at point of maximum insolation?

      • AndyG55 says:

        There isn’t less ice.

        There is FAR MORE than there has been for 90% or more of the current interglacial.

        Or are you going to continue to skulk away from admitting that fact

        Stop being a climate change denier, griff.

  8. RAH says:

    Oh BTW what ever happened to that guy that used to come around here on these Arctic ice posts and try to pull our chain. Hunt, I believe his name was.

    • AndyG55 says:

      Who cares.

      Just another slimy serial pest.

      One of the same crew of Arctic climate history DENIERS that griff gets his lack of information from.

    • TimA says:

      He was killed during a polar bear count….he hadn’t expected so many of them….

    • Disillusioned says:

      “Oh BTW what ever happened to that guy that used to come around here on these Arctic ice posts and try to pull our chain. Hunt, I believe his name was.”

      As soon as ice begins its inevitable precipitous summer drop, surely The Great White Arctic Con Artist will be back to his craft of painting reality. Alarmunists who focus on nuances of what ice has done since 1979, but are disinterested in cycles and what ice has done over the past 10,000 years, are irrelevant.

  9. Interested says:

    6000-7000 years ago, Greenland’s northern coastline was largely ice-free during the northern summers.
    This has been established by the study of wave erosion features and deposits of driftwood dated to that time.
    In fact it’s quite probable that much of the Arctic Ocean was largely navigable during that period; a period of warmth greater than today’s, without any appreciable manmade carbon dioxide to influence the climate.

    The Arctic ice cap is ephemeral. i.e. It comes and goes.
    It’s a ‘marginal’ ice-cap at best, which has, no doubt, all but disappeared on multiple occasions during interglacials since it first appeared around 2 -3 million years ago.

    People who stress over the extent and volume of Arctic ice do so because they have no understanding of our planet’s paleo-climate and imagine that the way things were in AD1950 is the way they’ve always been.
    For them, any reduction in the Arctic ice cap is a frightening indication that the world is coming to an end.
    It must be!
    Things have changed!
    Things aren’t supposed to change!
    It’s a catastrophe!
    It must be all our fault!

    The truth, of course, is that Earth’s climate changes all the time – with or without manmade CO2 in the air.
    And there IS NO IDEAL CLIMATE!

    In general, though, history proves that warmer weather is better for humans than colder weather. Furthermore, warmer weather and higher CO2 levels are clearly better for natural vegetation and food crops as well.

    Since they colonised dry land some 400 million years ago, photosynthesising plants have enjoyed carbon dioxide levels averaging around 1500 parts per million (ppm).
    Earth has only once before (during the Carboniferous period) endured atmospheric CO2 concentrations as dangerously low as our present-day figure of 400 ppm.
    At 150 ppm, vegetation starts to die of CO2 starvation.
    We’re perilously close to that number.
    Earth doesn’t need less carbon dioxide; it needs MORE!

    When will people finally wake up, look at the actual facts, and realise that the Global Warming scare is entirely political rather than science-based?
    How gullible are we?

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