Will Lake Ontario Freeze Over?

Posted on February 13, 2015 by Tony Heller

Lake Ontario doesn’t freeze over very often. But it may happen this weekend.

oicecon-00

About Tony Heller

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77 Responses to Will Lake Ontario Freeze Over?

  1. lance says:
    February 13, 2015 at 1:57 pm

    its a “warm” ice….however it might save Buffalo from more snow…

    Reply
  2. NavarreAggie says:
    February 13, 2015 at 2:06 pm

    Is there a particular reason why this lake is less susceptible to freezing? Just a question…

    Reply
    • stevengoddard says:
      February 13, 2015 at 2:12 pm

      It is deep. lower elevation (below Niagara Falls) and closer to the warm water of the Gulf Stream

      Reply
    • Neal S says:
      February 13, 2015 at 2:13 pm

      My guess is that it is much deeper than the other lakes. So it has more volume compared to surface area than the others.

      Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      February 13, 2015 at 2:18 pm

      Ontario is 801 feet (244 m) deep. It is further south that all the great lakes except lake Erie which is only 210 feet (64 m) deep.

      This means it is the last to freeze unless it is cooled by a ‘polar express’

      Latitudes
      Erie 42.2000° N
      Ontario 43.7000° N
      Lake Michigan 44.0000° N
      Lake Huron 44.8000° N
      Lake Superior 47.7000° N

      Reply
      • Gail Combs says:
        February 13, 2015 at 2:19 pm

        And Steve is correct, Ontario is the closest to the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream.

        Reply
        • DavidS says:
          February 13, 2015 at 4:37 pm

          Closeness to the Gulf Stream is relevant when it brings some warmer temps to it as compared to Huron, Michigan and Superior. However, that is not exactly happening the last two years and even with that, the main reasons it does not usually freeze are the lower elevation and the depth. When the ice forms, it will start at the northeastern end. The western, presumably but not necessarily colder end often doesn’t freeze which can be attributed to the prevailing winds blowing ice toward the east and with a bit of a UHI like effect thrown in given that the large cities and industry are dumping their used water into the western end. If you live there as I have most of my life, this is something you could see.

      • Gail Combs says:
        February 13, 2015 at 2:33 pm

        Lake Depths
        Erie 210 feet (64 m)
        Ontario 801 feet (244 m)
        Lake Michigan 922 feet (281 m)
        Lake Huron 751 feet (229 m)
        Lake Superior 1,332 feet (406 m)

        Reply
    • Glacierman says:
      February 13, 2015 at 6:27 pm

      Significantly more retained heat due to the depth of the lake. This would be two consecutive years. I believe it was only known to have “frozen over” about 4 times in recorded history before last year………sounds like an ice age coming!

      Reply
  3. gator69 says:
    February 13, 2015 at 2:13 pm

    It’s all thin rotten ice.

    Reply
  4. Mohatdebos says:
    February 13, 2015 at 2:33 pm

    The Detroit River was almost completely ice covered yesterday before the Coast Guard icebreaker broke up the ice. It will probably freeze over again as temperatures are forecast to fall below zero degrees F. Is there any way to post a picture?

    Reply
    • rah says:
      February 14, 2015 at 2:58 pm

      Drove over the Ambassador bridge at about 16:30 Friday. Could plainly see where an ice breaker had gone through. But I could not see a single vessel even though I had time to look due to the moderate pace due to traffic. The problem is that old bridge is skinny and when driving a big truck you really have to pay attention because your right side tires are very close to the curb if you stay between the lines.

      Noticed on Tuesday that the Hudson was frozen over at the Patroon Island Bridge crossing over on I-90 out of Albany, NY. Some ice breaking vessel had gone through. I guess the Coast Guard has an ice breaking cutter that goes that far up river to break up the ice for the barges.

      Reply
  5. Morgan Wright says:
    February 13, 2015 at 2:57 pm

    There’s a first time for everything. Lake Ontario had a chance last year and blew it.

    Reply
  6. Steve Clough Nature Photography says:
    February 13, 2015 at 3:08 pm

    I will try and stop up there this weekend and take a look. Last yr it froze over (+-95%) earlier.

    Reply
  7. emsnews says:
    February 13, 2015 at 3:12 pm

    Yes, the Great Lakes will freeze over totally and the very cold water next spring and summer will flow into the Gulf of Mexico cooling the water there significantly which will yet again, stop any hurricanes from gaining strength when approaching the southern coastline.

    Reply
  8. Alan Davidson (@aldavidson99) says:
    February 13, 2015 at 3:16 pm

    Looks quite possible. -39C with wind chill here in Ottawa today, NE of Lake Ontario. Low is forecast around -20C all next week. I doubt Lake Ontario has anything to do with Gulfstream as it’s too far from the start of the coastal region which starts at Quebec City. Must be the effect of depth that make it different as well as being 2nd most southerly of the Graet Lakes.

    Reply
  9. gator69 says:
    February 13, 2015 at 3:24 pm

    You are all missing the point. Of course we see an increase in lake ice in winter, but where is the multiyear ice? Those lakes did not dig themselves you know, and at this rate they will be the Death Valleys of the Upper Midwest!

    Reply
  10. Gail Combs says:
    February 13, 2015 at 3:29 pm

    I am sure the Coast Guard has their Ice breakers working over time trying to make sure the lakes don’t freeze…

    Reply
    • DavidS says:
      February 13, 2015 at 5:06 pm

      Only to a point Gail. The St. Lawrence Seaway (theoretically Thunder Bay, Duluth and Chicago to Quebec City) habitually shuts down for the season. Ships that do make it out in time can be stuck until Spring waiting for the ice to melt. Some of the shorter ferries have special systems in place (such as between Kingston and Wolfe Island) to keep a channel open but others such as the Pelee Island ferry are out of action early. (December 8 this year).

      Reply
      • Gail Combs says:
        February 13, 2015 at 5:16 pm

        Actually that was said tongue in cheek. Although I would not put it past our Warmist President to try and order ice breakers to break up the ice and to get rid of the evidence.

        Of course when you have the ClimAstrologists and the Propaganda Outlets Mass Media willing to lie for you and sheeple for citizens why bother.

        Reply
  13. Gail Combs says:
    February 13, 2015 at 5:21 pm

    My Husband found this on the internet. Seems Mother Nature is starting to have an effect on those in the Marxist enclave in Boston.

    From: [email protected]
    Subject: The Oracle replies!

    The Internet Oracle has pondered your question deeply.
    Your question was:

    Hello. I live near Boston, Massachusetts, and I have been shoveling snow for what seems like three months now. It’s about to snow again, and I have run out of places to put the snow I shovel. I toss it into the yard next door and the fellow there tosses it back at me.

    What I need is some global warming. We had that a few years ago, but apparently Obama has managed to stop it.

    Where can I go to find some global warming?

    …..

    And in response, thus spake the Oracle:

    Hey..
    So, you’ve reached an incarnation who’s also in the Boston area and I can’t even pretend to give you a snarky Oracle answer. I’m totally sick of this crap too. I completely commiserate. It sucks so much, especially the ice dams on my house. I want to leave this forsaken place, but I can’t afford to.

    Sorry for the personal and depressing answer, but I totally get it. This is the worst winter I’ve had in my adult life where I was responsible for my own home and job.

    You owe the Oracle about a half million dollars to fund my exodus from New England.

    Reply
  14. Anything is possible says:
    February 13, 2015 at 6:05 pm

    While one regional outbreak of extremely cold and snowy weather is not proof that we are entering a new Little Ice Age ; these are exactly the kind of conditions we would expect to see more often if we were entering a new Little Ice Age.

    Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      February 14, 2015 at 2:16 pm

      AHHHhhhhh, but it is the second year of such outbreaks in the USA and the sun is now past the anemic Cycle 24 MAX. Soon we will know if Dr Evans Notch-Delay Solar Theory is correct.

      Actually we have seen these outbreaks of severe cold for other years since the end of Solar cycle 23. We just do not hear about them The headlines scream GLOBAL WARMING! whenever the massively adjusted temperatures manage to creep up above normal but you never hear a peep about the major cold events occurring around the world.

      2009 – 2010
      The USA had snow in all fifty states.
      Lots of new cold and snow records in the USA this past week:
      wattsupwiththat(DOT)com/2009/12/13/lots-of-new-cold-and-snow-records-in-the-usa-this-week/

      “UP to 20 million farm animals may die in Mongolia before spring as the fiercest winter in living memory grips the country, International Aid Agencies warned today.” (half of Mongolia’s entire herd—may perish, , a quarter of a million animals and livestock died each week…
      (wwwDOT)news.com.au/breaking-news/million-farm-animals-freeze-to-death/story-e6frfku0-1225827780294#ixzz0tW2MH0HM

      Coldest winter for 200 years!
      WE are barely into the new year yet the winter of 2009-10 may already be heading into the record books as one of the coldest in living memory.

      A few days ago temperatures sank to near polar levels with the mercury touching -21.6C at Altnaharra in the north of Scotland…
      http://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/nostalgia/coldest-winter-for-200-years-1-1944001

      Scotland records coldest winter
      The past two months have entered the record books
      Scotland has suffered some of the coldest winter months in almost 100 years, the Met Office has confirmed.
      news(DOT)bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8492333.stm

      AccuWeather Inc. is on record as saying this could be the coldest winter in 25 years in the United States.

      (wwwDOT)philly.com/philly/news/homepage/81082317.html

      Jan. breaks record for consecutive days below freezing

      (wwwDOT)gainesville.com/article/20100201/ARTICLES/2011005/1002

      Parts of Europe, Asia report record cold, snow this winter

      (wwwDOT)spokesman.com/stories/2010/jan/21/parts-of-europe-asia-report-record-cold-snow-this/
      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
      December 2012 cold weather[-30 Cin Moscow]

      Coldest in 70 years in Eastern Russia.[temperatures hit -50C in Siberia
      ”In the end of 2012, Russia saw extreme winter not witnessed since 1938. The coldest-ever December in Russia led to the evacuation of hundreds of people in Siberia, where temperatures fell below -50 degrees Celsius; Moscow also saw its coldest night ever for the season.”
      (wwwDOT)theage.com.au/world/brutally-cold-russian-winter-kills-123-people-20121226-2bvlx.html

      Low temps in Peru – Death toll rises to 31
      Freak cold in the Andes kills hundreds
      Cold Blast Claims Over 600 Lives Across Eastern Europe/Russia…”Death Toll Keeps Rising…State Of Emergency”
      Coldest January on record for parts of Alaska
      2012 the coldest July on record in Anchorage Alaska
      Shortage of food in Uzbekistan city due to snow
      The First Time Occurred, Snow Storm Hits West Sumatra, Indonesia on Wednesday, March 28.
      Snow record broken in South Africa
      Johannesburg marvels at rare snowfall
      Unprecedented cold in Morocco
      Heavy snowfall in Tunisia, Roads in Ain Draham blocked by 31 inches (80 cm) of snow
      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

      2013
      Record cold in Cape Town, South Africa
      Rare snow in Atacama desert
      Brazil – Snow in over 80 cities – Roads and schools closed
      Worst cold spell in 80 years hammers Chile fruit crops
      More than 25 000 animals killed in southern Peru
      “Extraordinary” cold and large snowfall for southern Brazil
      Lao Cai Province [Viet Nam] alone, an unusual snowfall early this week caused an estimated loss of around VND10 billion
      Jerusalem hit by worst snowstorm for TWENTY YEARS as eight inches fall across Holy City
      Wintry blast to hit New Zealand
      July frosts reduce Brazil wheat, coffee
      Tibetan nomads in Ladakh call out for help, Thousands of livestock perish
      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
      2014
      Record snowfall (almost 7 ft) in northern Iran
      Temperatures up to 40 degrees below normal in the [US] High Plains
      Slovenia paralyzed by snow and ice
      Southern Austria on highest avalanche alert after heavy snow – A meter of snow in two days – Valleys and roads cut off
      Serbia – 1,000 evacuated from cars, buses and trains – Snow drifts 3.5 meters high
      Poland – Heavy snowfall and blizzards
      Heavy snowfalls and blizzard hammer southern Romania
      Rare snow blankets Bombala, a town in south-eastern New South Wales, Australia
      Brisbane recorded its coldest morning in 103 years on July 13, 2014,
      “Here in Serbia the summer is coldest is in my living memory,” writes Marijana.
      Manali, India – Coldest summer season in decades
      Freak summer blizzard and hail hit Siberia, Urals
      Maltempo, Italy – 20 cm (8 inches) of snow today
      Heavy snowfall shuts down six highways in China
      Algeria – Heavy snowfall brings complete paralysis of most educational institutions
      Snow in Saudi Arabia and Egypt
      Japan has been hit with major snow storms. Tokushima, Japan (34.0° N) is about the same as where I live in mid North Carolina. We get snow about once every five years and a bit of below freezing weather every year. Tokushima, Japan is actually milder.

      >>>>>>>>>>>>>

      I think you get the picture.

      Reply
  16. Steve Clough Nature Photography says:
    February 14, 2015 at 12:38 am

    From the ignorance dept. Gail wanted photos of Lake Ontario in all her icy glory. Can anyone help me post a jpg on here? Thanks.

    PS talk slowly when responding.

    Reply
  21. CR Carlson says:
    February 14, 2015 at 11:34 am

    From my hilltop outpost overlooking the Southeastern end of L Ontario the ice has been slowly encroaching for several weeks. Westerly winds and waves normally break it up, but a few days of still winds allow the ice to form as far out as I can see. It will still be thin at this point, but a week of no wind will allow substantial thickening.
    The Laker ship that replaced the Edmund Fitzgerald is currently at the Port of Oswego, waiting to be decommissioned and salvaged come Springtime.
    From the Great Lakes jpg posted previously, it’s apparent why the Lakes were originally a fairly large river system before they turned into lakes, by I assume glaciation.

    Reply
  22. CR Carlson says:
    February 14, 2015 at 11:52 am

    The vast Great Lakes always have the potential for being treacherous for boaters. One day while I was fishing for trout on a pier, a group of tourists were discussing what they could see, gazing out over the open expanse of water. They all agreed they could see a treeline on the Canadian side. After a few minutes I had to chime in and said they were seeing open water and an illusion, since the Canadian side from here is almost 40 miles away. At first they were incredulous at my offhand remark. Always be prepared and careful when boating on these lakes.

    Reply
  23. CR Carlson says:
    February 14, 2015 at 1:28 pm

    Two other factors in addition to L. Ontario’s depths that inhibit ice formation are a strong West to East current, from all the water from the other lakes going through Niagara escarpment and a slight, but noticeable see~saw movement of water that is North/South. Perhaps due to Lunar forces, this see~saw can lower water levels slightly on the Canadian side and raise water slightly on the US side and vice~versa. Perhaps someone with knowledge of these effects can weigh in on this. Trolling from a boat, fishermen have to account for the current or else risk losing all their downrigger gear after changing direction.

    Reply
  24. Morgan Wright says:
    February 15, 2015 at 3:54 pm

    http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/

    That’s a very interesting page, it compares 2013, 2014 and 2015 side by side.

    Reply
  25. Morgan Wright says:
    February 16, 2015 at 10:12 pm

    This week the polar vortex is going to shut down the Great Lakes. Cold all week.

    Last year it maxed out at 94% ice cover in late March, let’s see what this week brings.

    Reply
  26. Morgan Wright says:
    February 17, 2015 at 12:46 pm

    Last year was by far the most frozen the Great Lakes ever got, at 94%. This date last year they were 81% frozen but they are 76% frozen today. Click the link.

    Reply
  27. Morgan Wright says:
    February 18, 2015 at 11:28 am

    Today’s date, we are 82% ice this year and 81% last year, which was by far the worst of all time.

    To have 2 years in a row like this means we are entering a new ice age. Be prepared to move south…way south. Learn Spanish.

    Reply
  28. rah says:
    February 18, 2015 at 1:43 pm

    Well I really don’t know! Sure seemed to me yesterday that the lake effect was so severe it reached down into S. Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and even Arkansas!

    I’ve driven through some bad stuff this year going NE to Massachuests, NH, CT, and NY but what I drove through yesterday and last night down in KY was the worst of the year! There was snow on the ground for the first 20 miles south of the TN-MS state line last night. When I pulled into my destination in Canton, MS (About 25 mi north of Jackson) it was 19 deg. Early this afternoon driving north up I-55 in MS passing through a swampy area about 35 mi south of the TN state line I notice it was all covered with a thin layer of ice.

    I got called out Monday and departed at 12:30. A new driver had picked up a load in Shelbyville, IN bound for the Nissan plant in Canton, MS. He got as far as MM 22 Sunday night where there is the last rest area going south on I-65 in Indiana and shut down because he said “the weather was so bad and the roads were bad and I hoped they’d be better after I took my 10 hour break.”

    They called me in to go get the trailer and take it to it’s destination. I bobtailed down. light snow in Indy gradually got heavier as I went south on I-65. By the time I got the rest area where the wannabe truck driver was parked there was 4″ on the ground and more coming down.

    I talked to him and learned of his conundrum about the weather and roads as quoted above and asked him “Do you listen to the NWS radio band in your truck?” His answer was he was using his smart phone to get the Weather Channel reports. And he claimed he thought it was going to get better? Why? The weather people were saying it was going to worse!

    I got the BOLs (paper work) from him and I backed under the 53 ft. trailer and hooked up. Found the brakes had frozen and none of the tires were turning as I tried to take off. Yep, he sure is a rookie. You don’t set your trailer brakes in those conditions unless your damned sure you got them dry by using them hard some before your park and even then when it is getting really cold you leave them open because of possible ice build up in the air lines and valves.

    So I cycled the air brakes from parking to off several times and tried again. No luck. Release the trailer brakes leaving the tractor brakes on and out I go with my 3 lb cross peen hammer in hand. First double check the glad hands and listen to make sure I have no air leaks and them and check the airlines under the trailer going back. Everything seemed fine. So crawl under that trailer in the snow and beat on each of the 4 brake drums and to tap the brake canisters.

    Back into the cab and cycle the trailer air brakes again. Pull forward. No luck. Reverse? No luck. Still leaving drag lines in the snow. Cycle the trailer brakes again. Leave the trailer brakes unset and tractors on and rev the engine to make sure I have maximum air pressure and get out again with my trusty hammer and do so more beating and pecking. Cycle the trailer brakes again. Pull forward dragging the trailer in the snow about 30′. Then in reverse and GLORY BE the rear axle brakes had released. Out again, Trailer brakes released and tractors set to beat on the front axle drums some more. Back in ,drag it forward again, and the reverse again and the front axle brakes released. Pull out turning the trailer each way so I can confirm in my mirrors that all the tires are rolling. They were. I’m free to roll but I already knew that this day wasn’t going to be a walk in the park.

    Now normally the fastest route to Canton from there would be to take I-65 south to Nashville, TN to catch I-40 W to Memphis, TN and take I-240 down around the east side to the south side to catch I-55 S.

    I didn’t go that way. After dealing with some of the slack jawed drivers in Louisville, KY and then sitting in two back ups due to accidents within 20 mi south of the city I just KNEW it wasn’t going to work going down I-65. Hell, about 20% of the drivers around Nashville can’t handle wet roads, let alone ice! That’s why we truck drivers call it “Crashville”. I figured there was a 95% probability that I-65 would be shut down in Nashville, if not before, so the cops could stop the vehicular carnage that was bound to be happening.

    So at Elizibethtown I turned off on the Western Kentucky Parkway (WKP) to cut SW across the state and get to I-55 south eventually. I also figured that by heading west I was going to get out from under the snow line sooner. But the gamble was that I knew that I-55 in Missouri and Arkansas was on that line where they would get freezing rain. I had no other options though if were to have a chance of delivering the load close to the scheduled time.

    It was tough. Very tough. The first 30 miles on the WKP was one lane only with a snow plow leading the way. Moving at 25 to 30 mph. There was about 10″ of snow in the left lane so using it was a no go at that point. Then we broke out into a good long stretch where a couple of the few dozen or so snow plows in the state had been working and had two snow covered lanes to run. No lines visible and fro much of the next 50 mi even rumble strips were still covered with deep snow. But I could pass when the drivers so scared that they shouldn’t have been out there would let me by. Believe it or not some of them actually drive in the center intentionally despite there being plenty of room for passing to keep a big truck from passing because they are afraid of either the truck or the blinding snow blast they get when one goes by or just aren’t confident enough to drive within 6″ of the deep snow on the passenger side of their vehicle. The further I went the better conditions got and I could even hit 60 mph when there wasn’t traffic around in some places even though the road was still snow covered. About that time I learned that both I-65 and I-24 were shut down in the Crashville area due to? You guessed it!

    Down on the short stretch of I-24 was the first place I saw any evidence of salt being put down. Then it was down the Purchase Parkway to Hwy 47 to Hwy 51 coming out of Dyersburg, TN to I-155 and that is where it turned from snow to ice. Solid ice. The less than 20 mi of I-55 in Missouri I drove was treacherous as hell. In Arkansas the first 20 mi were the same and then it started to get better. By the time I was 30 mi from Memphis it was hammer down but in Memphis had to ease off because of patches of ice. I did not use my cruise control the whole trip until I was about 30 mi. into Mississippi on I-55 and then I could finally relax. I was really surprised! I-55 gets nailed with freezing rain that causes the interstate to be shut down a couple times each winter usually. Normally the problem is in Arkansas because Missouri had the salt shakers out and Arkansas didn’t. In fact there is a saying among truckers. “Arkansas just says God put it there and he can take care of getting rid of it!” This time it was reverse of normal.

    After delivering and picking up a trailer half full of empty plastic roepak parts containers at Canton I took a 10 hour break. I had driven over 700 mi with over half of it heavy winter driving. I was drained and asleep within 5 minutes after my head hit the pillow.

    At 13:30 I started walking the dog back. Going as fast as the truck would go (65 mph) when the law would allow. Going back would be I-55N to I-57N up through IL to Effingham to I-70 E. It was all good until 30 mi south of Effingham, IL when the flurries began. Despite steadily increasing snow I made good time but I noticed I did not see a salt shaker (plow/salt truck) anywhere all the way from Effingham to Indianapolis where I saw 6 of them working as I passed around it.

    About 40 mi from Indy on I-70 I had a scare. Hit a really slick spot and skidded a little so my trailer started to try and pass me, but gathered it up though I used all of both lanes doing so. So here I am at home in one piece and ready for a nap now that I have told my tale. Oh, and BTW, GLOBAL WARMING MY ASS!

    Reply
    • Morgan Wright says:
      February 18, 2015 at 2:02 pm

      Dude, that snow in Tennessee was not lake effect snow. It was just snow.

      Reply
      • rah says:
        February 18, 2015 at 2:07 pm

        It was a joke! Dude! I know what lake effect is. I drive through the stuff all the time in NY and Ontario. Thought I had written enough here that fact would be clear to the regulars. I suspect there might be a little stereotyping coloring your interpretation because of what I do for a living?

        Reply
  29. rah says:
    February 19, 2015 at 10:07 am

    Accuweather says: “The ice extent over the Great Lakes in total this year is at 82.3 percent, rivaling last year’s coverage and nearing the all-time record of 94.7 percent.”

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/photos_lake_michigan_ice/42552950

    Reply
  30. rah says:
    February 19, 2015 at 5:48 pm

    Well I learn something new every day. I have always ASSumed the Lake Michigan was the great lake that was least likely to freeze over but I was wrong apparently as this post in comment to one of mine over at WUWT shows:

    “qam1
    February 19, 2015 at 8:45 am

    Actually and surprisingly the Great Lake that freezes up the least is Lake Ontario.

    From the Canadian Ice Services

    “Some of the Great Lakes are far more likely to freeze over than others. The Canadian Ice Service (CIS) has been keeping statistics since the 1970s, and has calculated the likelihood of the lakes freezing to the point where 90 per cent of their surface is covered in ice.

    Erie, the shallowest and farthest south of the lakes, is the most likely to freeze to that point, with a chance of 69 per cent. Huron comes next at a 22-per-cent probability, followed by Superior at 17 per cent and Michigan at 11 per cent. Lake Ontario has a mere 1-in-100 chance of having 90-per-cent ice coverage, the CIS estimates. ”

    The last time Ontario froze over was in 1934 and typically only 25% freezes over”

    Reply
  31. Morgan Wright says:
    February 21, 2015 at 12:57 pm

    Looks like Lake Ontario turned over again. Only 44% frozen, down from 75%, and it’s been super cold the whole time. It’s -11 right now and very windy in upstate NY (Albany) so what’s going on? Lakes are 84% frozen and Ontario is melting?

    Reply
      • Gail Combs says:
        February 21, 2015 at 1:38 pm

        From Obummer and The Gorical and all the Progressive news propagandists bloviating. All that hot wind must have melted the ice.

        Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      February 21, 2015 at 1:22 pm

      You may want to ask Roy Spencer what happened.

      Since the Ice floats three possibilities come to mind.
      1. The Ice was flushed down the St Lawrence – I doubt it.
      ….Flight over frozen St. Lawrence River with DJI Phantom 2 Vision 1/13/2015 YouTube

      2. A strong wind piled the ice on top of other ice.

      3. Somebody messed up the data.

      I go with number two – wind.
      Eastern Lake Ontario

      Winds
      Issued 03:00 AM EST 21 February 2015
      Today Tonight and Sunday
      Wind south 15 knots increasing to south 20 early this morning then diminishing to south 15 early this evening. Wind diminishing to light overnight then increasing to west 15 Sunday morning. Wind increasing to west 25 Sunday afternoon then veering to northwest 25 Sunday evening.

      Waves
      Issued 03:00 AM EST 21 February 2015
      Today Tonight and Sunday
      Mainly ice covered.

      Weather & Visibility

      Issued 03:00 AM EST 21 February 2015
      Today Tonight and Sunday
      Periods of snow beginning early this morning changing to chance of flurries overnight and Sunday. Visibility 1 mile or less in snow.
      http://weather.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=11&siteID=08203

      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

      Ice Forecasts
      Issued 12:00 PM EST 20 February 2015
      Today Tonight and Saturday
      Ice Coverage

      9 tenths of thin lake ice except 9 plus tenths of medium lake ice over the extreme eastern section. Consolidated thick lake ice in the Bay Of Quinte.
      http://weather.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=11&siteID=08203

      Western Lake Ontario

      Winds
      Issued 03:00 AM EST 21 February 2015
      Today Tonight and Sunday
      Wind south 15 knots diminishing to south 10 near noon then becoming light early this evening. Wind increasing to west 15 Sunday morning and to west 25 Sunday afternoon. Wind veering to northwest 25 Sunday evening.

      Waves
      Issued 03:00 AM EST 21 February 2015
      Today Tonight and Sunday
      Over open water waves one half metre building to one Sunday evening.
      Weather & Visibility
      Issued 03:00 AM EST 21 February 2015

      Today Tonight and Sunday
      Periods of snow changing to chance of flurries overnight and Sunday. Visibility 1 mile or less in snow.
      http://weather.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=11&siteID=08207

      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

      Ice Forecasts
      Issued 12:00 PM EST 20 February 2015
      Today Tonight and Saturday
      Ice Coverage

      5 tenths of new lake ice including 2 tenths of thin lake ice except 9 tenths of thin lake ice including 1 tenth of medium lake ice along the southern shore.
      http://weather.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=11&siteID=08207

      Reply
    • gator69 says:
      February 21, 2015 at 1:27 pm

      What?! Everyone knows heat hides at the bottom, and doesn’t come out until it’s time for the tipping point. Obviously this melt is CO2 driven.

      Reply
      • Morgan Wright says:
        February 21, 2015 at 5:29 pm

        Heat hides at the bottom until the temperature of the water at the bottom is 4 C or less (39 F). Turnover happens because 44 F water is less dense than ice and rises to the top

        Reply
        • Morgan Wright says:
          February 21, 2015 at 8:27 pm

          Correction. 44 F water is less dense than 32 F water and rises to the top, preventing ice. The densest water is 39 F, below 39 F it starts getting less dense again, so when the water in the whole lake is less than 39 F there is no more turnover.

  33. Gail Combs says:
    February 21, 2015 at 1:32 pm

    Another map with actual inches in a PDF does not seem to agree with the above, but does agree with ice piling up at eastern end of the lake.
    http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/NAIS25ECT/20150220180000_NAIS25ECT_0008129376.pdf

    Today’s image indicates the ice has moved around

    http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS125CT/20150221111400_WIS125CT_0008130320.gif

    Reply

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