Romm Invokes The Death Spiral. Why Are None Of The True Believers Betting On A Record Minimum?

11 Responses to Romm Invokes The Death Spiral. Why Are None Of The True Believers Betting On A Record Minimum?

1. Neven says:

   July 9, 2011 at 8:22 am

   Like said before I’m willing to bet 50 USD, but I want you to bet too. I could say I’d like you to bet that the minimum will be as low as that of 2006, as you are continuously comparing this year’s trend to that of 2006. But I’ll be even more generous and let you bet that this year’s IJIS daily minimum extent will be more than 5 million square km. The bet is void if the minimum extent falls below the 2007 record and 4.99 million square km.

   Come on,Steve, be a sport, take the bet. Or are you being the weenie here?

   Reply
   • stevengoddard says:

     July 9, 2011 at 8:32 am

     I have been completely clear. I expect you to bet on a record minimum based on the available PIOMAS, GISS, NSIDC Barber data.

     Amazing how you people try to weasel your way out of the corner which your alarmist gods have painted you in to. You obviously don’t believe their BS.

     Reply
     • Peter Ellis says:

       July 9, 2011 at 9:15 am

       Why aren’t we allowed to expect you to bet on it being ~2006 levels based on the available PIPS 2.0 data and an IJIS curve “tracking” 2006? Why is sauce for the goose not sauce for the gander?

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       • stevengoddard says:

         July 9, 2011 at 11:56 am

         I’ve made it quite clear that I am not making any extent predictions and the reasons why the extent measurements are largely meaningless. Your team is the one using the extent measurements to prove the world is being destroyed. You have to take ownership of them.
   • AndyW says:

     July 9, 2011 at 3:26 pm

     Exactly, why has Steve suggested 2011 has been tracking 2006 for so long, even when it hasn’t been? There can only be one reason, HE HOPES the summer minima will be like 2006.

     Now it is he weasling out of it.

     Andy

     Reply
     • stevengoddard says:

       July 9, 2011 at 4:40 pm

       2011 is tracking 2006 very closely, and I have made it 100% clear that I am not making any predictions of extent. Are you completely daft?

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     • Neven says:

       July 9, 2011 at 4:47 pm

       You’ll have to come up with another variation on this particular misinformation, Steve, because it is no longer true.

       The difference in IJIS SIE between 2011 and 2006 has gone from 175K at the start of the month to 338K now. The gap will probably increase as after tomorrow 2006 will have a run of pretty low extent decrease (an average of just over 60K) until the end of the month.

       Reply
2. Peter Ellis says:

   July 9, 2011 at 9:30 am

   Actually, several “true believers” are doing just that. Look at the SEARCH exercise.
   http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2011/june

   Four groups are predicting a new record, three predicting a level almost exactly the same as 2007, seven predicting somewhere between 2007 and 2010, two predicting the same as 2010, and only three predicting an improvement over last year. Of those latter, one is the WUWT web poll, which can’t really claim to be a scientific prediction.

   This range of prediction seems intrinsically reasonable: as of a couple of days ago, 2007/2010/2011 were essentially identical in extent. 2010 had very poor weather from July through to the minimum, so it sets a reasonable upper bound. 2007 had weather strongly promoting melt right through to the minimum, so you could say it sets a minimum bound. However, given that the ice is now in poorer shape than 2007, that’s probably not the minimum bound and there’s a significant likelihood of a new record this year.

   Personally, I side with the prediction from the PIOMAS group (Zhang et al), who predict 4.1 +/- 0.6, i.e. a new record unless there is very bad weather. Of course, I, like Steve, am no more than an uninformed amateur bloviating on the Web, so I don’t expect people to take me seriously: that’s what SEARCH is for.

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3. Edward says:

   July 9, 2011 at 12:09 pm

   What’s the big deal?
   http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

   Reply
   • GregO says:

     July 9, 2011 at 4:58 pm

     Yes indeed..

     Reply
4. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:

   July 9, 2011 at 7:02 pm

   I see there’s some Baghdad Romm believers here.

   Reply