Real Climate Science

Aston Villa up 1-0 at halftime.

Probable Cause Are scientists too cautious to help us stop climate change?

BY KERRY EMANUEL | NOVEMBER 9, 2012

The world has suffered an extraordinary string of weather disasters over the past decade, ranging from crippling droughts and floods, to severe tornado and hail outbreaks, to highly destructive hurricanes. Insurance industry statistics reflect a substantial increase in damages from these events, but in only a few cases can scientists confidently attribute them to climate change. (For example, increased incidence of droughts, floods, and high category hurricanes may be partly pinned on climate change.)

But we know next to nothing about the relationship between climate change and other weather phenomena, such as tornadoes, and we have yet to establish a link to hybrid storms like Sandy. For all but a few of these phenomena, the scientifically correct conclusion is that we can’t rule out the possibility that they were purely manifestations of natural variability. But from a public policy perspective, it would be prudent to assume that climate change might be behind some of these changes, given that it is manifestly changing the environment in which these events develop.

Probable Cause – By Kerry Emanuel | Foreign Policy

There is no evidence that the weather has become more extreme over the last century. Hurricane strikes have declined in the US.

www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ushurrlist18512009.txt

Severe tornadoes have declined in the US.

EF3-EF5.png (960×720)

Droughts have declined in the US.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/drought/wetdry/bar-mod-110-00/190001-201202.gif

Emanuel’s entire thesis is based on flawed, lazy assumptions. He has no idea what he is talking about.

Rapidly melting ice at -56F is turning the air purple in Greenland.

summit:status:webcam

Hopefully James Blalog is catching the meltdown live on film, so that children will be able to feel cold virtually.

The military is threatened by 0.0004 mole fraction CO2.

The Pentagon was warned on Friday to stand guard against “climate surprises” which could throw off its efforts to secure America’s future.

An expert report, prepared for the intelligence community by the National Academy of Sciences, warns that the security establishment is going to have start planning for natural disasters, sea-level rise, drought,epidemics and the other consequences of climate change.

US military warned to prepare for consequences of climate change | World news | guardian.co.uk

A big climate surprise is coming during the next few weeks, when 300,000 defense contractors get laid off (right after the election.)

CO2 was at incredibly safe levels in 1898.  The 1898 Colorado forest fire was about 100X larger than the “record” forest fires of 2012.

19 Sep 1898 – THE WEST INDIAN CATASTROPHE. WORST. HURRICANE SI…

19 May 1898 – GREAT FLOOD IN ILLINOIS. TERRIBLE SCENES

http://trove.nla.gov.au/

FOREST FIRES IN COLORADO. – People in Northwest Part of the State Said to be Fleeing for Their Lives — Loss Will Be Enormous. – View Article – NYTimes.com

Your SUV caused this, retroactively.

12 Apr 1845 – DREADFUL HURRICANE IN AMERICA.

Obama knew it was terrorism before he didn’t know that it was terrorism  before he did know it was terrorism.

At any rate, Obama has fulfilled his promise and jailed the movie producer used as a scapegoat for his own incompetence.

On September 14, 2012 – three days after the Benghazi terrorist attack – a memorial service attended by President Obama, Secretary of State Clinton and family members of the fallen heroes was held at Andrews Air Force.  When approached by the father of Navy Seal Woods, Clinton vowed to him that the Obama administration would “arrest and prosecute” the producer of the video.  In her remarks at the service, she denounced the “awful Internet video that we had nothing to do with” as the cause of the violence.

Obama’s America: Jailed for Blaspheming Against Islam

When you have an important election coming up, the First Amendment is no obstacle. The press corpse happily aided and abetted Obama’s cover up, and wildly fraudulent election campaign.

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[ROFL Adam Johnson scored right after I made this post]

Leading scientists James Hansen and Prince Charles duel over the tipping point.

Charles says that we are over 400 ppm, and that 450 ppm is the tipping point.

‘Already levels of CO2 have exceeded 400 parts per million; 450 parts per million is the tipping point we have to avoid so every day of delay threatens to make the change more dramatic.’

Prince Charles warns of the ‘catastrophic’ impact of climate change | Mail Online

Hansen says that 350 PPM CO2 is the tipping point, and that Prince Charles’ 450 ppm would cause 60-80 metres of sea level rise.

Get back to 350 ppm or risk an ice-free planet | Grist

Jim is one of the few scientists who speaks strongly about climate change and has released papers that shows the situation to be much worse than is suggested by the IPCC reports. For example, he recently showed that sea level rise could be as much as 4-5m by the end of the century rather than below 1m maximum as proposed by the IPCC. His most recent work has been released as a draft paper at Columbia University and is titled “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?” (Hansen 2008a). This paper has numerous critical findings including that we already have an additional 2 degrees temperature warming built into the system, not 0.6 degrees as commonly reported, and that 450 ppm CO2 is enough to trigger a 60-80m sea level rise.

Target 300

Jim and Charles should sit down at Hansen’s underwater office in Manhattan and work this out. Or perhaps they could travel to New Guinea and study how CO2 affects breast size.

Prince Charles and Camilla begin Jubilee tour in Papua New Guinea – Telegraph

Note: Gray areas signify missing data.
Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

Beyond all the usual upwards adjustments, Hansen upwards adjusted October an additional 0.12 C by coloring in missing data with his hot red and brown crayons. He also cleverly warmed the south pole by a few degrees.