Real Climate Science

Ten years ago this week, Jay Inslee brought a “three-foot stack of scientific books” to a congressional global warming hearing and Democrats pitted “recognised climate scientists” vs. “three well-known climate sceptics”

Democrats roll out climate change big guns, Republicans remain immune | Climate change | The Guardian

Apparently no cherry-pick is below climate alarmist’s dignity.

“The scientists came armed with the latest evidence  ….

Knute Nadelhoffer, a University of Michigan professor, noted that Lake Superior had already warmed by 4.5F since 1979“

Lake Superior water temperatures are close to the long term average.

all_year_glsea_avg_s.pdf

January, 1979 was the coldest on record in the US.

The winters of 1977-1979 were among the five coldest on record in the Great Lakes States

Not surprisingly, Great Lakes ice cover was very high in 1977-1979. It was also very high in 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019 and this year (not shown on the graph) was close to average.

IceCover_avg_1973_2020.png (1951×755)

Jay Inslee compared Michael Mann to Copernicus, Galileo, Newton, and Einstein.

“Jay Inslee, a Washington Democrat, lamented on Tuesday that even if Copernicus, Galileo, Newton, and Einstein were testifying, Republicans would still not accept the science until Antarctica had melted.”

Antarctic sea ice is currently near a record high for the date.

Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

These were the skeptics which the Democrats didn’t recognize as scientists.

John R. Christy, B.A. Mathematics, California State University (1973), M.S. Atmospheric Science, University of Illinois (1984), Ph.D. Atmospheric Science, University of Illinois (1987), NASA Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal (1991), American Meteorological Society’s Special Award (1996), Member, Committee on Earth Studies, Space Studies Board (1998-2001), Alabama State Climatologist (2000-Present), Fellow, American Meteorological Society (2002), Panel Member, Official Statement on Climate Change, American Geophysical Union (2003), Member, Committee on Environmental Satellite Data Utilization, Space Studies Board (2003-2004), Member, Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the last 2,000 years, National Research Council (2006), Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville (1991-Present), Director of the Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville (2000-Present), Contributor, IPCC (1992, 1994, 1996, 2007), Lead Author, IPCC (2001)

Patrick J. Michaels, A.B. Biological Sciences, University of Chicago (1971), S.M. Biology, University of Chicago (1975), Ph.D. Ecological Climatology, University of Wisconsin-Madison (1979), Research and Project Assistant, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin (1976-1979), Assistant Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia (1980-1986), Virginia State Climatologist (1980-2007), President, Central Virginia Chapter, American Meteorological Society (1986-1987), Executive Board, American Association of State Climatologists (1986-1989), Associate Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia (1986-1995), President, American Association of State Climatologists (1987-1988), Chair, Committee on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society (1988-1999), Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies, Cato Institute (1992-Present), Visiting Scientist, Marshall Institute (1996-Present), Member, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Member, Association of American Geographers, Member, Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society, Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia (1996-Present), Contributor and Expert Reviewer, IPCC (1990, 1992, 1995, 2001, 2007)

Richard S. Lindzen, A.B. Physics Magna Cum Laude, Harvard University (1960), S.M. Applied Mathematics, Harvard University (1961), Ph.D. Applied Mathematics, Harvard University (1964), Research Associate in Meteorology, University of Washington (1964-1965), NATO Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Institute for Theoretical Meteorology, University of Oslo (1965-1966), Research Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research (1966-1967), Visiting Lecturer in Meteorology, UCLA (1967), NCAR Outstanding Publication Award (1967), AMS Meisinger Award (1968), Associate Professor and Professor of Meteorology, University of Chicago (1968-1972), Summer Lecturer, NCAR Colloquium (1968, 1972, 1978), AGU Macelwane Award (1969), Visiting Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, Tel Aviv University (1969), Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship (1970-1976), Gordon McKay Professor of Dynamic Meteorology, Harvard University (1972-1983), Visiting Professor of Dynamic Meteorology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1975), Lady Davis Visiting Professor, Department of Meteorology, The Hebrew University (1979), Director, Center for Earth and Planetary Physics, Harvard University (1980-1983), Robert P. Burden Professor of Dynamical Meteorology, Harvard University (1982-1983), AMS Charney Award (1985), Vikram Amblal Sarabhai Professor, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India (1985), Japanese Society for the Promotion of Science Fellowship (1986-1987), Distinguished Visiting Scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA (1988-Present), Sackler Visiting Professor, Tel Aviv University (1992), Landsdowne Lecturer, University of Victoria (1993), Bernhard Haurwitz Memorial Lecturer, American Meteorological Society (1997), Fellow, American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Fellow, American Geophysical Union, Fellow, American Meteorological Society, Member, Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Member, Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society, Member, National Academy of Sciences, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1983-Present), Lead Author, IPCC (2001)

Roy W. Spencer, B.S. Atmospheric Sciences, University of Michigan (1978), M.S. Meteorology, University of Wisconsin (1980), Ph.D. Meteorology, University of Wisconsin (1982), Research Scientist, Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin (1982-1984), Senior Scientist for Climate Studies, Marshall Space Flight Center, NASA (1984-2001), MSFC Center Director’s Commendation (1989), U.S. Team Leader, Multichannel Imaging Microwave Radiometer (MIMR) Team, NASA (1992-Present), Team Leader, AMSR-E Science Team, NASA (1994-Present), NASA Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal (1991), American Meteorological Society’s Special Award (1996), Principal Research Scientist, Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville (2001-Present)

Democrats prefer to get their science from these experts.

One year ago today Joe Biden said “I’ll always tell you the truth” about coronavirus.

‘I’ll always tell you the truth’: Biden calls for national response to coronavirus outbreak | CBC News

Now he says there wasn’t a vaccine when he took office.

Biden Claims ‘We Didn’t Have’ a COVID Vaccine When He Took Office

Biden said he wanted to vaccinate people at a rate of one million per day for his first 100 days.

Biden has set a goal to vaccinate 100 million Americans during his first 100 days in office. During the press conference, Biden called the Trump administration’s distribution of coronavirus vaccines a “dismal failure so far,” warning that “things are going to continue to get worse before they get better.”

But there were 1.5 million vaccines given the day Biden read the oath of office from the teleprompter. The first day vaccines were available was a month earlier on December 21. Biden’s target was achieved by Trump.

More Than 341 Million Shots Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker

Biden said  “things are going to continue to get worse before they get better” – but cases peaked several weeks before he occupied President Trump’s office, and have been declining sharply ever since.

United States Coronavirus: 29,971,763 Cases and 544,735 Deaths – Worldometer

In most states, cases have been plummeting since mid-November (long before a vaccine was available) and are close to zero now.

Have we flattened the curve in the US? – Johns Hopkins

Here in Wyoming we never locked down, but all restrictions will be lifted next week – though we will likely be locked down by several feet of global warming.

Winter Storm Xylia, a Potentially Historic Blizzard in the Rockies and High Plains, Hits This Weekend | The Weather Channel – Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com

14 Aug 1922 – CHINESE TYPHOON. – Trove

14 Aug 1922 – Misplaced Tropical Heat. – Trove

During the 19th century, Greta Thunberg’s ancestor said  burning coal would boil earth and extinct the human race.

23 Oct 1902, Page 1 – The News-Herald at Newspapers.com

Steven Hawking picked up on that idea four years ago.

Stephen Hawking: Earth Could Turn Into Hothouse Planet Like Venus | Live Science

However, this idea was shown to be incorrect by another Swede – Knut Angstrom – 120 years ago. He pointed out some very fundamental errors in Arrhenius’ thinking.

“a layer so thick as to be equivalent to that contained in the earth’s atmosphere will absorb about 16% of the earth’s radiation, and that this absorption will vary very little with any changes in the proportion of carbon dioxide gas in the air”

“The remainder of Angstrom’s paper is devoted to a destructive criticism of the theories put forth by the Swedish chemist, S. Arrhenius, in which the total absorption of CO, is quite inadmissibly inferred from data which include the combined absorption of CO, and the vapor of water. On these incorrect premises Arrhenius has founded an hypothesis as to the cause of the Ice Age, attributing it to variation in the mount of atmospheric CO,. The geologists who have adopted Arrhenius’s views should recall that his hypothesis evidently fails in the light of present knowledge of the absorptive powers of carbon dioxide.”

– Knut Angstrom 1901

Wayback Machine

And 120 years later, the UN climate spokesperson’s father is named after his relative Svante Arrhenius. Greta says fossil fuels will burn us up, yet in the real world billions of people (including Greta) depend on fossil fuels to keep from freezing to death.

Democrats don’t always get their science from truant high school students, but when they do they get it from Greta Thunberg.

Greta says she won’t fly on airplanes, but another well known climate expert will be in the area soon to rescue us from global warming.

“The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history.”

? George Orwell

In 1999, NASA’s James Hansen wrote this :

“Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought. The drought of 1999 covered a smaller area than the 1988 drought, when the Mississippi almost dried up. And 1988 was a temporary inconvenience as compared with repeated droughts during the 1930s “Dust Bowl” that caused an exodus from the prairies, as chronicled in Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath.

The U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934?

– James Hansen  NASA 1999

NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Whither U.S. Climate?

But NASA has erased Steinbeck and the Dustbowl, and the 1930s were no longer hot.

graph.png (1130×700)

This is a remarkable achievement, particularly given that the National Climate Assessment shows that the 1930s was the hottest decade.

Temperature Changes in the United States – Climate Science Special Report

In 1995, the New York Times predicted “most of the beaches on the East Coast of the United States would be gone in 25 years”

Scientists Say Earth’s Warming Could Set Off Wide Disruptions – The New York Times

Barack Obama believes in the science, and just bought a $15 million home on an East Coast beach.

Barack and Michelle Obama buying $14.85M Martha’s Vineyard estate

The article also said :

The intergovernmental panel forecasts an increase in droughts like the current one in the Northeastern United States, heat waves like the one in Chicago this summer, and more fires and floods in some regions.

*A “striking” retreat of mountain glaciers around the world, accompanied in the Northern Hemisphere by a shrinking snow cover in winter. “

Since then, winter snow cover has increased to near record highs.

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

Droughts have become less common and severe in the US since the 19th century.

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

And the likelihood of hot weather has plummeted in the US.

We are about have an historic blizzard and cold spell here in Cheyenne, Wyoming.

Winter Storm Xylia, a Potentially Historic Blizzard in the Rockies and High Plains, Hits This Weekend | The Weather Channel – Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com

Cheyenne, WY 10-Day Weather Forecast | Weather Underground

Ten days ago the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA said we would have a warm, dry March.

Climate Prediction Center – Revised OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts

On January 25, NOAA predicted a warm February for the US.

“The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February indicates that there are no strong climate signals that would point toward an unusually cold or mild month.  The odds are tilted toward above average precipitation.”

February Outlook – Another Warm Month Ahead – WeatherNation

That forecast was exactly backwards.

U.S. had its coldest February in more than 30 years | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOAA can’t predict the climate ten days in the future, but say they know what it will be like in 100 years. They lie about the past, and can’t predict the future – but their climate misinformation is central the Democrats’ dismantling of the US energy supply.

Ten years ago, the University of Michigan said that thirty years of declining snow cover was making global warming worse than they predicted.

“If the Earth were just a static rock, we could calculate precisely what the level of warming would be, given a perturbation to the system. But because of these feedback mechanisms we don’t know exactly how the climate will respond to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide,” Flanner said.

“Our analysis of snow and sea ice changes over the last 30 years indicates that this cryospheric feedback is almost twice as strong as what models have simulated. The implication is that Earth’s climate may be more sensitive to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other perturbations than models predict.”

In 1995, NASA’s James Hansen published this graph showing no troposphere warming from 1978 to 1994.

Wayback Machine

Five years ago, satellite data from Remote Sensing Systems showed no troposphere warming from 1996 to 2015.  I captured the graph below on March 29, 2016.

Combining the two trends, that implies little or no troposphere warming for thirty-eight years from 1978 to 2015. But that didn’t suit the agenda, so Carl Mears altered the data to create a strong warming trend.

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

This animation shows how the data was changed.

I predicted this would happen on March 27, 2015.

Look for the satellite data to be adjusted to bring it into compliance with the fully fraudulent surface temperatures. The Guardian is now working to discredit UAH, so it seems likely that RSS will soon be making big changes – to match the needs of the climate mafia. Bookmark this post.

I made this prediction because Ted Cruz used an RSS graph in a Senate hearing in March of 2015. Carl Mears at RSS then came under intense pressure to make his data match the surface temperature data.

My particular dataset (RSS tropospheric temperatures from MSU/AMSU satellites) show less warming than would be expected when compared to the surface temperatures. All datasets contain errors. In this case, I would trust the surface data a little more because the difference between the long term trends in the various surface datasets (NOAA, NASA GISS, HADCRUT, Berkeley etc) are closer to each other than the long term trends from the different satellite datasets. This suggests that the satellite datasets contain more “structural uncertainty” than the surface dataset.

Ted Cruz says satellite data show the globe isn’t warming

Roy Spencer at UAH made the same prediction on January 9, 2017

“I expect there will soon be a revised TLT product from RSS which shows enhanced warming, too.

Here’s what I’m predicting:

1) neither John Christy nor I will be asked to review the paper

2) it will quickly sail through peer review (our UAH V6 paper is still not in print nearly 1 year after submission)

3) it will have many authors, including climate model people and the usual model pundits (e.g. Santer), which will supposedly lend legitimacy to the new data adjustments.

Let’s see how many of my 3 predictions come true.

-Roy”

Satellite and radiosonde data showed no warming from 1978 to 1994 and no warming from 1996 to 2015. But now NASA shows 0.7C warming at the surface from 1978 to 2015.

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

According to global warming theory, the troposphere should warm faster than the surface – but global warming theory doesn’t officially take into account politics and money.

The US was much warmer prior to 60 years ago, but reality wrecks political agendas – so NOAA and NASA tamper with the data to create a non-existent warming trend.