The graph below plots the PIPS July 7 ice thickness distribution for 2008 and 2011. 2008 had more ice area, but the ice was much thinner. As a result, a lot of ice melted in August and September. That is less likely to happen in 2011 because the ice is thicker and located at higher latitudes.
That huge, thick chunk of ice is melting very slowly. We will probably be quite pleased with the September numbers. In six weeks or so, we should know the story.
How do those plots compare with 2010?
-Scott
2010 was similar to 2011, but 2010 had a lot of thick ice near 70N latitude in Siberia. This year the thick ice is north of 75N and is less likely to melt.